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  • #1,208,561
  • Jan 18, 2022 11:55pm Jan 18, 2022 11:55pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Funny enough today may be an up day as it has been for a few weeks now.
I will be surprised.. Its would be a late new years gift..
  • #1,208,562
  • Jan 18, 2022 11:58pm Jan 18, 2022 11:58pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Not sure why you feel you need to do this. Just because people aren't posting their trading results in here, it doesn't mean they are nothing but words. Don't let losers make you feel you have to prove something to them.
Just wanted to share a good trade, nothing more. Sometimes my analysis work, sometimes not. Lossers will stay lossers and what new traders like and is good to know that what we the winners share here is good content and not craps.

That doesn't mean that a losing trade today is a losing trade tomorrrow and that, if someone bought EURUSD means he/she is a loser in the future.

I also have fun doing what I do and like to share here.

Thanks.
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,208,563
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:19am Jan 19, 2022 12:19am
0.25 or 0.05 isn't the thing to consider, kinda pointless
First you need to work out the real rates a very negative
no one would lend 100 to get back 93 in real terms other than the government,We talk a government running trillion $ deficits carrying huge debt.
the dilemma as I see its is the fed do have the tools but also can't let rates go where they should,I don't know the answer
as long as inflation remains high whatever they planned isn't enough to get rates positive near term ,rates should be above inflation
to takle inflation
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,564
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:14am Jan 19, 2022 1:14am
Short triggered 1.1345. Stop at 1.13495. 2 tps. 1st 1.1320 2nd 1.1288
  • #1,208,565
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:18am Jan 19, 2022 1:18am
Quoting Bones
{quote} stop wring in bold you maniacs no one got 0.25% last year ,name the bank account that paid any interest rate ,they were 0% if you had $100 in the bank last year, today it would be worth $93 no interest paid thats a negative 7% return on the official government 7% cpi money in any bank the real rates are negative
Yes and no. Their purchasing power fell to 93 dollars that's true, but still they got 100.25$ which is what we are talking about. We are not talking about the purchasing power. You are comparing apples and oranges.

Since June USD strengthened against Euro, but in the daily life of Americans' purchasing power fell.

That doesn't mean the rates are negative, that just means inflation rate is higher than the interest rate. Yeah the return is negative, but if you make it sound like "real interest rates are negative" then that's wrong. Real interest rates are 0.25% but the return you get is -6.75%.

So when it comes to investing, putting your dollars to a savings account is not a good idea, with a -6.75% return. But when it comes to trading, USD is still stronger than Euro. So i may not put my money on the bank because it is a bad idea, but i can still short Euro against USD since FED is more hawkish (will hike rates sooner than ecb) than ECB and the total of US growth and inflation numbers' difference between consensus vs. real are lower than the Euro Area's.

Let's not mix apples and oranges. Investment wise what you say is true, but trading wise it is not. Trading is about expectation vs. reality, while investing is only about reality.
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  • #1,208,566
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:30am Jan 19, 2022 1:30am
price has just been below mt SL. Nearly hit. But its goingsouth now
Executing trades with precision!!
  • #1,208,567
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:40am Jan 19, 2022 1:40am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Yes and no. Their purchasing power fell to 93 dollars that's true, but still they got 100.25$ which is what we are talking about. We are not talking about the purchasing power. You are comparing apples and oranges. Since June USD strengthened against Euro, but in the daily life of Americans' purchasing power fell. That doesn't mean the rates are negative, that just means inflation rate is higher than the interest rate. Yeah the return is negative, but if you make it sound like "real interest rates are negative" then that's wrong. Real interest...
no you are mixing ,if your reason to buy something other something else its the real yield that matters
oil goes up because the interest rate is a guaranteed loss in this environment
it's better to buy something real you know everyone will need than a guaranteed loss
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,568
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:49am Jan 19, 2022 1:49am
Quoting Learner-xx
price has just been below mt SL. Nearly hit. But its goingsouth now
I have to turn my computer upside down sometimes so I know its right.. otherwise I get interested in whats actually going on.
  • #1,208,569
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:52am Jan 19, 2022 1:52am
perfect example ,the real rates are very negative ,the lira tanks
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  • #1,208,570
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:56am Jan 19, 2022 1:56am
Quoting Bones
{quote} no you are mixing ,if your reason to buy something other something else its the real yield that matters oil goes up because the interest rate is a guaranteed loss in this environment it's better to buy something real you know everyone will need than a guaranteed loss
I agree, but again that's about investing. When we are trading, especially the currencies and especially the EURUSD, the way you analyse interest rates doesn't help and actually it is misleading when it comes to trading. Trading and investing are two very different things, even if they are done in the same market. And even in the same instrument.
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  • #1,208,571
  • Jan 19, 2022 2:01am Jan 19, 2022 2:01am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} I agree, but again that's about investing. When we are trading, especially the currencies and especially the EURUSD, the way you analyse interest rates doesn't help and actually it is misleading when it comes to trading. Trading and investing are two very different things, even if they are done in the same market. And even in the same instrument.
why is trading and investing 2 different things
there the same ,you guys are the ones putting that much weight on nominal rates
you can't compare apples and oranges if one country has super high inflation
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  • #1,208,572
  • Jan 19, 2022 2:08am Jan 19, 2022 2:08am
Quoting Bones
perfect example ,the real rates are very negative ,the lira tanks {image}
As you see it is not negative, it is 14%. But when you compare it with inflation the return is negative. So yeah in the end lira tanks, and it will. BUT, if CB chairman were to say "we are going to raise rates soon" without hiking the rates, just a bluff, it would cause lira to appreciate a lot. Just until the next meeting though. It would tank again if they weren't raise the rates in the next meeting.

So a trader would buy the rumour first, then he would sell the fact. While the investor was selling and waiting, trader would make money off of these two moves. This forum is full of traders rather than investors, well i am both but we need to show what a trader does in interactive trading threads like EURUSD rather than showing people what an investor does. Because they are more interested in becoming traders first.
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  • #1,208,573
  • Jan 19, 2022 2:11am Jan 19, 2022 2:11am
Quoting Bones
{quote} why is trading and investing 2 different things there the same ,you guys are the ones putting that much weight on nominal rates you can't compare apples and oranges if one country has super high inflation {image}
Because an investor would look at the difference between inflation and interest, then decide to move on to more fruitful assets.

While a currency trader would compare those rates with other currencies' and short the worst one against the less bad one and make money off of it.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,208,574
  • Jan 19, 2022 2:24am Jan 19, 2022 2:24am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Yes and no. Their purchasing power fell to 93 dollars that's true, but still they got 100.25$ which is what we are talking about. We are not talking about the purchasing power. You are comparing apples and oranges. Since June USD strengthened against Euro, but in the daily life of Americans' purchasing power fell. That doesn't mean the rates are negative, that just means inflation rate is higher than the interest rate. Yeah the return is negative, but if you make it sound like "real interest rates are negative" then that's wrong. Real interest...

We have that saying in Chinese “This trade is in profit by looking at the numbers, but is actually a loss”
  • #1,208,575
  • Jan 19, 2022 3:02am Jan 19, 2022 3:02am
1.135 is today's high for EU. get ready to short
Executing trades with precision!!
  • #1,208,576
  • Edited 3:45am Jan 19, 2022 3:12am | Edited 3:45am
Quoting Learner-xx
1.135 is today's high for EU. get ready to short
There is something brewing the setup I am use to seeing has deviated from course but not so much as I would call it and hang up my short positions.
More like they are having a liquidity issue.

Oh they where waiting for GU.. lol
  • #1,208,577
  • Jan 19, 2022 4:16am Jan 19, 2022 4:16am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} As you see it is not negative, it is 14%. But when you compare it with inflation the return is negative. So yeah in the end lira tanks, and it will. BUT, if CB chairman were to say "we are going to raise rates soon" without hiking the rates, just a bluff, it would cause lira to appreciate a lot. Just until the next meeting though. It would tank again if they weren't raise the rates in the next meeting. So a trader would buy the rumour first, then he would sell the fact. While the investor was selling and waiting, trader would make money...
the real rate is very negative ,no point in throwing other categories of the type of trader someone is
the higher inflation goes the more negative rates go until the fed really deal with the problem which is specific to to the times
this is why I'm saying some of you guys are stuck in the past with your ideas ,inflation is way hotter than the fed ever reckoned, now they got a dilemma

Thats why the $ falls at the same time as raising rates talk
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  • #1,208,578
  • Jan 19, 2022 4:32am Jan 19, 2022 4:32am
other things are devaluing much faster V $ than comparing of fiat ,all fiat look ugly
like houses or general commodities or stock market
maybe bitcoin recent times
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  • #1,208,579
  • Jan 19, 2022 4:42am Jan 19, 2022 4:42am
If we stay below S - short
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  • #1,208,580
  • Jan 19, 2022 5:40am Jan 19, 2022 5:40am
Quoting Bones
{quote} the real rate is very negative ,no point in throwing other categories of the type of trader someone is the higher inflation goes the more negative rates go until the fed really deal with the problem which is specific to to the times this is why I'm saying some of you guys are stuck in the past with your ideas ,inflation is way hotter than the fed ever reckoned, now they got a dilemma Thats why the $ falls at the same time as raising rates talk
Dollar is not falling, it dipped, because banks found liquidity on the down and is going back up again. Macroeconomics are not stuck in the past, it is the way it works. You are still debating about macroeconomics, yet you are still not getting it. Learn first, understand it and than you can debate about it.
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