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  • #1,208,541
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:55pm Jan 18, 2022 5:55pm
Euro could be in for a bounce of some support to perhaps create a brief new high at resistance.
Longer term, selling rallies seems the way to go to me.
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Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,208,542
  • Jan 18, 2022 8:14pm Jan 18, 2022 8:14pm
Quoting Bones
{quote} ok what do you think would happen to that chart without one rate rise and taper to 0 QE
If I understand the question correctly, No rate rise but continue with taper to 0....taper has been known since early November when they originally announced 15 billion a month. Then towards the end of November there were talks about discussing the need to increasing that and speeding it up. That discussion was set to be had in December, which it did and they confirmed they are doubling to 30 billion a month, putting it on track to end in March.

So without the rate raise, I dont know, maybe the 10Y continues to bounce around, maybe the market takes rates up without the rate talk. Im comfortable saying I dont know. Thats not the current situation we are in. Would be nice to find someone that could answer that question correctly, or would they just be speculating on such a scenario?

What I do know and can see is the following:

1. FOMC Statement and Press Conference and what they are planning to do.
2. The 10Y chart which we have in front of us
3. Additional fundamental factors that play into these FOMC statements
4. The FX pairs in front of me to BUY and SELL.

So my answer is I dont know because thats not what we have.

What are your thoughts?
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #1,208,543
  • Jan 18, 2022 11:36pm Jan 18, 2022 11:36pm
so it is on the expected support exact , stime may hold or not , bounce try likely before decision . take care , fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #1,208,544
  • Edited Jan 19, 2022 12:08am Jan 18, 2022 11:55pm | Edited Jan 19, 2022 12:08am
So let me get this straight... The economy is fake money is debt debt is money. Economic data is an idealized concept and the news is historical telling of past events that are not shaping the future. Then you got the crooked banks now pay .25% for you to hold onto and stock pile their mountain of debt paper that reaches the moon. The media will paint this as good for the economy and the brain washed clap like seals about to be clubbed in t he back of the head?

.25% Free debt paper with every interest baring account backed by nothing printed from nothing STORE OUR perpetual debt slavery instruments today.

They can't ever afford to pay the bonds the social security or any of the infinite debt their printing to pay the monthly bills? The currency gonna go down in flames.
Interest doesn't exist in the system how they ever suppose to pay anything bankrupt gov and private fed printing money from nothing. How long can they sustain the shit show.
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #1,208,545
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:14am Jan 19, 2022 12:14am
what are they planning to do? Keep printing and swapping paper to rob us with as usual.
They;ve got this great 10 year plan keep lying and robbing
Founder of Sutherland Wave Principle
  • #1,208,546
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:25am Jan 19, 2022 12:25am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Thanks for this. The impact of the discount rate on other rates is what makes it so important and not to be ignored.
nothing will stop you ,I mean last year we had a huge debate if inflation was transatory and the fed are trustworthy ,tell you what if the discount rate is important show me where its used ,show the facility
your talking 0 to 0.25% rate either way when inflation is 7 %
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,547
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:28am Jan 19, 2022 12:28am
Quoting Nordling00
FED's current interest rate is 0.25%, which basically means you will get 0.25% interest annually for holding your savings in the bank. So basically this is the interest you GET. This is set by the FED, not by the free markets. US 10 year treasury yield (US10Y) is currently 1.87% which means you will at least pay 1.87% interest for your loans (at least 1.87%, you will likely to pay more than that) and this is the interest that you PAY. This is set by the free markets and changes everyday. If the FED hikes that 0.25% interest rate and it will, this...
stop wring in bold you maniacs
no one got 0.25% last year ,name the bank account that paid any interest rate ,they were 0%
if you had $100 in the bank last year, today it would be worth $93 no interest paid
thats a negative 7% return on the official government 7% cpi money in any bank
the real rates are negative
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,548
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:30am Jan 19, 2022 12:30am
Quoting Bones
{quote} nothing will stop you ,I mean last year we had a huge debate if inflation was transatory and the fed are trustworthy ,tell you what if the discount rate is important show me where its used ,show the facility your talking 0 to 0.25% rate either way when inflation is 7 %
I have provided the links that outline why the Discount Rate is important Bones.
You say it's not important.

I provided a direct quote saying how just important it is and I provided the link (source) where I got it from (TWICE).

Read it for yourself please and stop this merry go round.

Stop asking me questions I have already provided information on.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,208,549
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:34am Jan 19, 2022 12:34am
any bank paying more than 0% is loosing money they can borrow at 0.5% on the open market

FDIC's national average for savings accounts of 0.06% APY
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,550
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:41am Jan 19, 2022 12:41am
Quoting trumps
{quote} I have provided the links that outline why the Discount Rate is important Bones. You say it's not important. I provided a direct quote saying how just important it is and I provided the link (source) where I got it from (TWICE). Read it for yourself please and stop this merry go round. Stop asking me questions I have already provided information on.
the interest rate Is 0% ,thats all you need to know
their talking about raising to 2-3% ,thats the fed funds rate the banks use
then theres a calculation the banks use to calculate what the rates are on top
the cost of borrowing is in the curve above with the red arrow saying what it is over 1 month
the longer you borrow the more it is, its 0% overnight pretty much all but tolerance

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,551
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:47am Jan 19, 2022 12:47am
Quoting Bones
{quote} the interest rate Is 0% ,thats all you need to know their talking about raising to 2-3% ,thats the fed funds rate the banks use then theres a calculation the banks use to calculate what the rates are on top the cost of borrowing is in the curve above with the red arrow saying what it is over 1 month the longer you borrow the more it is
Ok.
Now, how do they raise the Fed funds rate?
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,208,552
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:50am Jan 19, 2022 12:50am
Quoting HTG
{quote} If I understand the question correctly, No rate rise but continue with taper to 0....taper has been known since early November when they originally announced 15 billion a month. Then towards the end of November there were talks about discussing the need to increasing that and speeding it up. That discussion was set to be had in December, which it did and they confirmed they are doubling to 30 billion a month, putting it on track to end in March. So without the rate raise, I dont know, maybe the 10Y continues to bounce around, maybe the market...
well you agree its a free market ,with no fed it will go up further ,the free market will price it in relation to the 10y inflation expectation
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,553
  • Jan 19, 2022 12:55am Jan 19, 2022 12:55am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Ok. Now, how do they raise the Fed funds rate?
they control that rate ,the idea is if they raise it,
it extracts money out of circulation
they tell the banks the target
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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,554
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:01am Jan 19, 2022 1:01am
Quoting Bones
{quote} they control that rate ,the idea is if they raise it, it extracts money out of circulation they tell the banks {image}
The Fed cannot set this rate as a mandate, they do not have the authority to do so. They cannot just say, "the Fed fund rate is now ×%, and that is what you will pay until told otherwise".
I have said this already and provided the links.
They can only influence it to within a range through their policies such as money supply.

You can believe this or not. I'm not bothered.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,208,555
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:14am Jan 19, 2022 1:14am
Quoting trumps
{quote} The Fed cannot set this rate as a mandate, they do not have the authority to do so. They cannot just say, "the Fed fund rate is now ×%, and that is what you will pay until told otherwise". I have said this already and provided the links. They can only influence it to within a range through their policies such as money supply. You can believe this or not. I'm not bothered.
regardless they set that rate and thats the one that matters ,
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,556
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:20am Jan 19, 2022 1:20am
Quoting Bones
{quote} regardless they set that rate and thats the one that matters ,
Bones, if you are not going to be bothered reading the links I have provided for you, complete with quotes of just how important the discount rate is, then I'm not going to spend more time talking with you.
Knock yourself out.
Compulsions can be hard to resist
  • #1,208,557
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:24am Jan 19, 2022 1:24am
Y'all love Internet merry-go-round arguments. Tell me who has ever won an Internet debate. Nothing in this debate will make anybody change his trading strategy. Just make profit with your knowledge and move on.

Price movement tells me all I need to know. I know a lot of fundies, but it will always enhance the technical. I keep saying it that if fundamentals alone drove the market then some currency pairs would be at minus 0.0000 by today. But it doesn't work that way. The price movers use the CBs as reason to take your money. Cycle price up, cycle it down, range it a little, and money changes hands. Thats's it. Life continues.

With excellent technical knowledge and good grasp of some fundamentals you are good to go, and don't need to be scratching your head wondering why price spiked 200 pips even when interest rates were raised. All the time the US had much higher rates EU many times ran towards 1.19 and even 1.20 like a madman. Now they will raise rates again and EU will hit a certain bottom and rise up again. What happened? Nothing. Just price cycle. Simple.
  • #1,208,558
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:25am Jan 19, 2022 1:25am
Quoting trumps
{quote} Bones, if you are not going to be bothered reading the links I have provided for you, complete with quotes of just how important the discount rate is, then I'm not going to spend more time talking with you. Knock yourself out.
look you talk mechanics ,while you can borrow at 0.05% for 1 month how can the overnight be 0.25% ,check the link
the markets are very complicated if you strip it down ,I not saying I know all the mechanics because I don't need to
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #1,208,559
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:33am Jan 19, 2022 1:33am
im expecting another EU drop
Executing trades with precision!!
  • #1,208,560
  • Jan 19, 2022 1:43am Jan 19, 2022 1:43am
Quoting Learner-xx
im expecting another EU drop
Funny enough today may be an up day as it has been for a few weeks now.
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