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Trading Made Simple(r)

  • #7,201
  • Jan 17, 2022 7:19am Jan 17, 2022 7:19am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} I find it rather perplexing that you would say this (and post the charts above) considering that you've posted lots of charts ALL with numerous indicators that look similar to this chart (below) that you posted in this thread (below)... AND all within the past 30 days and as recently as 3 days ago. Then, you tell everyone that these things are REQUIRED to trade. Guppy's Multi-Moving Average (GMMA) | Page 9 | Forex Factory {image}...
Just exploring something that looks interesting, not telling ... I still believe keeping things as simple as possible is the way to go and what you are seeing on those charts is not indicator-based (as in Stochs, MACD etc), just a very useful visual aid.

This is the bit I kicked off with on that thread.

Quoting Spudfan
Hi All, I've been using various forms of an MA crossover strategy to trade pullbacks for a couple of years now, often successfully, not always. So when I saw the GMMA system it was very interesting because it's familiar to me (being a kind of MA crossover system) but it's much more than that too. The question always with MA crossover strategies, and also GMMA, is how to get in on a trend and how to avoid ranging or 'jumpy' markets. It's so easy when reviewing historical data, but not easy when doing it live.
Quoting Spudfan
So with that challenge in mind I have been looking at ways of identifying trends using the GMMA and getting in on them safely. So far, this is where I am and I invite comment if anyone has other ways of doing this. I'm not saying this is the way to do it, it's just where I am at present ...
  • #7,202
  • Jan 17, 2022 7:39am Jan 17, 2022 7:39am
Here's a trade I placed last week (NZDCAD, H4), prompted by the TDI alert. Price had moved below the magenta MA (and I checked it out on plain HTF charts). It's now just pips away from the target, but the previous candle was a doji (if that name applies to HA candles, not sure) which signals a possible change and which Big E warns about. I used plain charts and the GMMA to decide to keep going with it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,203
  • Edited 8:30am Jan 17, 2022 7:41am | Edited 8:30am
Quoting Spudfan
{quote} Just exploring something that looks interesting, not telling ... I still believe keeping things as simple as possible is the way to go and what you are seeing on those charts is not indicator-based (as in Stochs, MACD etc), just a very useful visual aid. This is the bit I kicked off with on that thread. {quote} {quote}
1. I hate inform you but moving averages ARE INDICATORS and you put 13 of them on your charts...13!, all the while telling people that "I prefer going as simple as possible, hence using Big E's system at its simplest"

2. You did tell people, you told them by way of posting a chart that says "NECESSARY CONDITIONS" written right on your chart...and included 5 required items INCLUDING INDICATORS.

3. Then you say: "I still believe keeping things as simple as possible is the way to go and what you are seeing on those charts is not indicator-based (as in Stochs, MACD etc)". YET in your first post here (Post #7198), you posted a chart WITH THE TDI INDICATOR on the chart! Here's the chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY H4.png Size: 23 KB

I really hate to be insulting, but you have pretty much blown your credibility here.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #7,204
  • Jan 17, 2022 9:27am Jan 17, 2022 9:27am
RobinHood, I think there has been a misunderstanding here and what you said hurt me.

Let us accept that MAs are indicators, as you say. And when they are put together in the form of the GMMAs they can be very useful. The TDI is also an indicator, also very useful. I guess even the HA candles are a form of indicator, and they give useful information too. I use all of these.

But, the issue with indicators is that it's easy to treat them with too much respect, as truth, and be misled. We end up not being able to see the wood for the trees (or the forest for the trees).

So to overcome that, it is good practice to look at "naked" charts (current TF and HTFs) to get a clearer picture. This is what I was saying.
  • #7,205
  • Jan 17, 2022 10:03am Jan 17, 2022 10:03am
Quoting Spudfan
RobinHood, I think there has been a misunderstanding here and what you said hurt me. Let us accept that MAs are indicators, as you say. And when they are put together in the form of the GMMAs they can be very useful. The TDI is also an indicator, also very useful. I guess even the HA candles are a form of indicator, and they give useful information too. I use all of these. But, the issue with indicators is that it's easy to treat them with too much respect, as truth, and be misled. We end up not being able to see the wood for the trees (or the forest...
I see no misunderstanding. You hurt yourself. You did so by coming to this thread and posting numerous and obvious contradictions. I merely pointed them out.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #7,206
  • Jan 17, 2022 11:11am Jan 17, 2022 11:11am
Robinhood,

In regards to setting a TP/SL.

I know you said you typically set a SL 2 bars back (1 bar if the setup candle is large). Now, I typically will measure from where the current price is to the low/high of 2 candles back (e.g. 50 pips), and then that # is also my TP1.

Once TP1 is hit, I move the SL for my other 2 orders (I open 3 orders at the same time) to BE + 5 pips. My risk is always the same, 1% regardless.

My question is, would you measure from where the current price is to the high/low or somewhere else because that measurement affects my position size and TP1 level and could easily be a 10-20 pip difference.

Do you still practice no real TP level and you let the indicators tell you when to exit? Just curious to hear what you currently do for SL/TP. Thanks!
Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
  • #7,207
  • Jan 17, 2022 11:48am Jan 17, 2022 11:48am
Quoting stiffdogg06
Robinhood, In regards to setting a TP/SL. I know you said you typically set a SL 2 bars back (1 bar if the setup candle is large). Now, I typically will measure from where the current price is to the low/high of 2 candles back (e.g. 50 pips), and then that # is also my TP1. Once TP1 is hit, I move the SL for my other 2 orders (I open 3 orders at the same time) to BE + 5 pips. My risk is always the same, 1% regardless. My question is, would you measure from where the current price is to the high/low or somewhere else because that measurement affects...
As an example, most often, if it's a Long trade, I just simply place my stop just under the low of 2 bars back (about 3-5 pips below), or just under the low or a large bar, if a swing low is very close I often use that.

I do not currently place profit targets, but if I did (which I have done in the past and I think it's a good way to exit if you want to do it) is to do what you are doing with the first two units, but I would let the 3rd unit run and use a reasonable trailing stop. Like the HMA turning the opposite color, or the RSI crossing the 50 line in the opposite direction, or the one/both of the price candles/bars turning the the opposite color, one/both of the stochastics turn from green/blue or red/orange to the opposite color, or wait for some combination of the above to occur, etc. There are many, many ways to do it. But it's up to you to test out what you think looks best and use that. Just try to remain consistent once you decide.

FWIW, many years ago, I extensively back tested as to which way is best to exit (using a computer program), and consistently, that testing showed that letting all 3 units run and exiting all 3 at the same time was more profitable.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #7,208
  • Jan 17, 2022 11:57am Jan 17, 2022 11:57am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} testing showed that letting all 3 units run and exiting all 3 at the same time was more profitable.
Excuse me, what was more profitable?
  • #7,209
  • Edited 2:11pm Jan 17, 2022 12:03pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting oohoo
{quote} Excuse me, what was more profitable?
(My) testing showed that letting all 3 units run and exiting all 3 at the same time was more profitable vs. exiting one unit at a time at different levels.

Run --> It means staying in until they get stopped out by way of an indicator (or hit a profit target).
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #7,210
  • Jan 17, 2022 7:11pm Jan 17, 2022 7:11pm
[quote=RobinHood;

Hi RH,

Thank you for your great thread, and the knowledge shared within the pages.

Trading is the hardest game in town, and knowledge is required to be successful, some of the recent posts indicate folk need to gain more trading knowledge,

A successful business requires knowledge, by serving an apprenticeship. in their chosen field. Knowledge gained helps to answer problems we encounter in our various businesses. Trading/Investing requires dedication and time, in large amounts.

We appreciate your efforts to assist those asking trading questions, but wonder if it will invite more questions, when some good books may provide a wider set of answers, and allow you more free time.

Practice and testing theories from threads like yours has helped me.

Wish you, and everyone good trading in the years ahead.
Ben
  • #7,211
  • Jan 17, 2022 7:30pm Jan 17, 2022 7:30pm
just read a lot of your thread answers , i was totally in awe of your comments and helping traders ,
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #7,212
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:25am Jan 18, 2022 1:25am
NZDJPY H4. I placed a sell stop order in case price continues up for a while. The series of lower swing points is what gave me the confidence to take this trade. Also, the HTFs support this bearish bias. The last four candles are all dojis, which usually signals a change.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,213
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:58am Jan 18, 2022 1:58am
Quoting Spudfan
NZDJPY H4. I placed a sell stop order in case price continues up for a while. The series of lower swing points is what gave me the confidence to take this trade. Also, the HTFs support this bearish bias. The last four candles are all dojis, which usually signals a change. {image}
Dear Spudfan sorry but I think you are in the wrong place.YOUR method is not the TMSr.Please try not to detune everyone who attends this ''course'' here.
  • #7,214
  • Jan 18, 2022 2:20am Jan 18, 2022 2:20am
Quoting trade1969
{quote} Dear Spudfan sorry but I think you are in the wrong place.YOUR method is not the TMSr.Please try not to detune everyone who attends this ''course'' here.
Thank you for pointing this out, gently too! I wasn't aware it was dedicated to a specific approach. So I have just been a distraction all along. Sincere apologies.
  • #7,215
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:33am Jan 18, 2022 5:33am
Quoting Spudfan
NZDJPY H4. I placed a sell stop order in case price continues up for a while. The series of lower swing points is what gave me the confidence to take this trade. Also, the HTFs support this bearish bias. The last four candles are all dojis, which usually signals a change. {image}
Why are you posting this chart here? It has nothing to do with TMS(r) method at all. I may be wrong but most of the threads started in "trading systems" are dedicated to a specific approach.
Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
  • #7,216
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:38am Jan 18, 2022 5:38am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} (My) testing showed that letting all 3 units run and exiting all 3 at the same time was more profitable vs. exiting one unit at a time at different levels. Run --> It means staying in until they get stopped out by way of an indicator (or hit a profit target).
I can confirm this. Had a trade yesterday open with 3 units. First two got taken out at TP1 and the 3rd unit was stopped out at BE+5 pips. Would have netted another $300ish in profits if all 3 were closed at TP1.
Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
  • #7,217
  • Edited 7:07am Jan 18, 2022 5:59am | Edited 7:07am
[quote=btrfx1;13860432][quote=RobinHood; Hi RH, Thank you for your great thread, and the knowledge shared within the pages. Trading is the hardest game in town, and knowledge is required to be successful, some of the recent posts indicate folk need to gain more trading knowledge, A successful business requires knowledge, by serving an apprenticeship. in their chosen field. Knowledge gained helps to answer problems we encounter in our various businesses. Trading/Investing requires dedication and time, in large amounts. We appreciate your efforts to assist those asking...[/quote]

Thank you for your post. I probably have about the largest personal library of trading books and trading videos that you will likely ever see. I've posted a picture of it in this thread in the past. I am not bragging, collecting trading materials has just been a hobby of mine for over 30 years, and a very expensive one at that.

For many, many years (and many years ago), going to book stores was seriously my main "therapy" from the stress caused mostly by the business that I owned. The long drive over and back to the book stores (I lived out in the country) gave me quiet time to "just think, or to not think". And then browsing through the trading and investing books, and occasionally meeting other people in the trading/investing sections, and chatting with or even becoming friends with them was also a kind of therapy.

One of my closet friends for over 25 years (a professional trader) actually wrote a pretty good trading book. Two of his trading ideas I still use nearly every day, they're trading setups on the chart. Things that happen over and over on every chart, things that are always right in front of traders, but most traders just haven't been taught to "see" them. I have never otherwise ever seen another trader who talks about them. Nor have I have shown them to anybody and I never will. But again, the hint is, they are "chart patterns" (and not the common ones everyone knows about) that repeat over and over again on EVERY chart, in every time frame, in every market. That's one big reason why I can move almost seamlessly through different type of markets like the Forex, Stocks, ETF's, Futures, Commodities.

With that being said, I have found very few books/videos that could teach you "HOW" to trade well. Trading is like being an artist, every trader has to find their own path, what things fit their personality and temperament, and equally as important, what don't. That is not an easy thing to do. That's WHY you see so many traders and wannabe traders on trading forums. And they are ALL looking (or looked) for the same thing that doesn't exist...The Holy Grail of trading.

I think one of the reasons that learning to trade well is SO HARD is because VERY OFTEN new traders have been successful in other fields of endeavors and so they think that because they were successful in one field that they will easily be successful in trading. I know, because that's what happened to me. I started, owned, and sold (in 1998) a multi-million dollar business which I started with just $800 (in 1988) and with no credit and no loans of any kind.

Very often, (I would even say most often) what makes traders successful is is following the most basic of trading axioms...the trend is your friend (until it ends), let your profits run, cut your losses short, never get emotionally attached to a trade, etc. Those, good money management, and good trading methods are critical.

To be successful in trading, you need at least 4 things in my opinion.

1. Mind - You have to have the right trading mindset.
2. Method - You have to have trading methods that actually work.
3. Money Management - You have to understand how to use your trading money in the best possible ways.
4. A Good Trading Platform - You must find, and learn how to use a good trading platform, and learn it really well.

Also, I fully agree that studying with a "good" trading mentor helps profoundly, but honestly, they are very few and far between, because they either don't have the time and/or the desire to teach other traders. I've studied under some very famous traders (and often paid them very handsomely for the opportunity), and to be honest, most of them are quirky as hell, like artists. And, often very expensive.

In all honesty, the reason I post here is, #1, it helps other traders for free (at least that's my hope), and #2, it stimulates my mind, and #3, I often learn good things from others who post here.

Like a while back, I posted something on here which inspired me go back and reread a book written by a guy that created a trading indicator. Here I thought all these years that it was supposed to be used primarily in one way, but actually it also can be used to show divergence pretty well. I would likely never have reread the book and realized that had I not made that post on this forum.
Always a Student, Never a Master - Emulate What Works
  • #7,218
  • Jan 18, 2022 8:40am Jan 18, 2022 8:40am
Quoting RobinHood
Quoting btrfx1
{quote} Thank you for your post. I probably have about the largest personal library of trading books and trading videos that you will likely ever see. I've posted a picture of it in this thread in the past. I am not bragging, collecting trading materials has just been a hobby of mine for over 30 years, and a very expensive one at that. For many, many years (and many years ago), going to book stores was seriously my main "therapy" from the stress caused mostly by the business that I owned. The long drive over and back to the
...
And I am grateful that even after 3 years, you still update the thread with your thoughts, opinions, and continue to help those who want to follow this method. After 5 years of messing with Forex on/off, I finally found something I can relate to.

I've gone through systems here before and by the time you get to the end of the thread, people are posting photos that look NOTHING like the original post or system.

Maybe one day we'll get that stock method.
Remember, the market never lies. It is only we who lie to ourselves.
  • #7,219
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:08am Jan 18, 2022 9:08am
Quoting RobinHood
{quote} (My) testing showed that letting all 3 units run and exiting all 3 at the same time was more profitable vs. exiting one unit at a time at different levels. Run --> It means staying in until they get stopped out by way of an indicator (or hit a profit target).
Thank you! Something like: after 1:1 RR move to b/e (no profit taking), then trail as appropriate, right? Or exit all 3 at 1:1 RR - still better than taking partial profit?
  • #7,220
  • Jan 18, 2022 9:21am Jan 18, 2022 9:21am
Quoting RobinHood
Quoting btrfx1
{quote} Thank you for your post. I probably have about the largest personal library of trading books and trading videos that you will likely ever see. I've posted a picture of it in this thread in the past. I am not bragging, collecting trading materials has just been a hobby of mine for over 30 years, and a very expensive one at that. For many, many years (and many years ago), going to book stores was seriously my main "therapy" from the stress caused mostly by the business that I owned. The long drive over and back to the
...
That's a very valuable account.
As for this
Quote
I have never otherwise ever seen another trader who talks about them. Nor have I have shown them to anybody and I never will.
could you maybe hint or show in which direction this lies?
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