Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid? | Page 15 | Forex Factory

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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #281
  • Jan 17, 2022 12:15pm Jan 17, 2022 12:15pm
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Geometry? Newton? No. I'm friends with tools such as Game Theory, Economics, Probabilities, Statistics and Methmatical finance I throw all those together and hope for the best. Honestly I don't know if it will work and I didn't say it will work either, I only said it's promising since last 80 days or so of testing.
“I looked at the price charts and analyzed them, and they didn’t look random to me,” he says. “They looked kind of random, but not completely random. I felt there had to be some anomalies in this data which could be exploited.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...e-numbers-king
Do you agree with him? This man is not a joke.
  • #282
  • Jan 17, 2022 10:09pm Jan 17, 2022 10:09pm
Quoting beastwork
i haven't read the entire thread, but there is no such thing as a random market. if you're trying to scalp on the 5 minute chart, then sure. but that's like picking up pennies in front of a freight train. exchange rates are trending all the time, and there are market pressures driving the trends up, down, or sideways. along the random walk, from price a to price b, there are opportunities to make a profit or loss. these pressures are not random, and are based on REAL world supply and demand. interest rates, favorable economic environments, corporate...
Check post #254 I have answered this exact question.
  • #283
  • Jan 17, 2022 10:35pm Jan 17, 2022 10:35pm
Quoting phoenix777
{quote} “I looked at the price charts and analyzed them, and they didn’t look random to me,” he says. “They looked kind of random, but not completely random. I felt there had to be some anomalies in this data which could be exploited.” https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...e-numbers-king Do you agree with him? This man is not a joke.
Simon is talking about Stock market and yes I agree with him
  • #284
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:40am Jan 18, 2022 1:40am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} The majority of the market doesn't speculate, it doesn't need charts, it doesn't need to know how much Euro will be worth one or 2 days from now. The market just want to exchange currencies that's all, hence I say it's a utilitarian market, it's not for creating wealth like the stock market.
I think it is difficult to predict the forex market over a number of days/weeks, however a shorter time period of say one market session to another, for example, asian to Euro or Euro to US open it can be.

A bit like a football game is made up of a first half & a second half ( 2 sessions). You can more or less from the first 10mins of each halfs' play, predict who will most likely win the session, but you can't predict from that small amount of data, if they will win the league at the end of the season.

Also the game is unpredictable with say, only 1 minute of play. In this analogy you could say volume is the amount of posession of the ball by one team.
Tactics can change in the second half ( US session), so some recalculation is required.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #285
  • Jan 18, 2022 1:53am Jan 18, 2022 1:53am
As the saying goes, those tt cant do - teach.

Which is very true, why would any profitable/experienced traders teach anyone.
  • #286
  • Jan 18, 2022 2:05am Jan 18, 2022 2:05am
A big clue to what's going on is the oft-acknowledged fact that retail traders ONLY have an edge on high timeframes. The swings are easier to see and you can usually ride the swing out until you're in profit. All you have to do is trade with the obvious trend, have diamond hands, and wait.

That should then make you wonder what's happening on the lower timeframes that causes all these retail traders to get wiped out.
  • #287
  • Jan 18, 2022 2:17am Jan 18, 2022 2:17am
Quoting EvilEye
A big clue to what's going on is the oft-acknowledged fact that retail traders ONLY have an edge on high timeframes. The swings are easier to see and you can usually ride the swing out until you're in profit. All you have to do is trade with the obvious trend, have diamond hands, and wait. That should then make you wonder what's happening on the lower timeframes that causes all these retail traders to get wiped out.
Do you know that the big time frames are made by 1 minute timeframes?

All other Timeframes come from 1 minutes timeframes on MetaQuotes charts.

Me looking from this point of view, I don't understand what you said there. But it's ok if it works for you and you're making profits and comfortable
  • #288
  • Jan 18, 2022 2:22am Jan 18, 2022 2:22am
It start by a tick , and trader is not a movie star , the price is the movie star and there is the director
a trader is like the boy with dripping sliver behind the glass window of a candy store .
Canndyyyyy .....
  • #289
  • Jan 18, 2022 3:02am Jan 18, 2022 3:02am
Forex is a manipulative market. Banks have the power, because of their huge market size, to move the forex market. There is no tool that can fully determine the market.
  • #290
  • Jan 18, 2022 3:34am Jan 18, 2022 3:34am
Quoting louiseking
Forex is a manipulative market. Banks have the power, because of their huge market size, to move the forex market. There is no tool that can fully determine the market.
Why would banks move price if there were customers?

Remember speculators only accounts for only less than 20% of whole Forex market.

Why would a bank put so much effort to fight 80% of the market to manipulate prices just to affect the 20% of the market whom they'll gain from?

Doesn't make sense. But maybe they do
  • #291
  • Jan 18, 2022 3:46am Jan 18, 2022 3:46am
Try to Google this: Logic behind stock market charts technical analysis.

You won't find anything that will tell you the logic behind, everything you'll find will try to teach you how to do the damn thing.

The logic is "herd mentality" people see same things then do same things which will influence similar outcome at the end.

Everyone get thirsty at the same time, the go drink the river, river dry out.

Someone Who want to cross a full river can wait for people to get thirsty, anticipation? River drying out.

Pattern = people getting thirsty
Outcome = Dry river.

Stock market: there's a herd. Everyone want to buy and make profit.

Forex Market: No herd! Only 20% want to make profits and the rest just want to exchange their foreign currency in order to do business.

If you still don't understand this. It's ok
  • #292
  • Jan 18, 2022 3:59am Jan 18, 2022 3:59am
Amazon, Facebook and Google manipulate the Markets they operate in.

Banks manipulate the 80% of the foreign exchange market.

Not the tiny one speculators and retailers operate on, where the losers operate on. They just print money on that 98% success rate no need to manipulate.
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  • #293
  • Jan 18, 2022 4:08am Jan 18, 2022 4:08am
If people took babypips.com seriously maybe they would know what's really going

But Noooo they rather believe some Guru they found on a forum or Instagram just because they gave him their 500$
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  • #294
  • Jan 18, 2022 4:40am Jan 18, 2022 4:40am
to answer your original question i do believe most forex education out there is misleading. reading a beginner's book on anything will notteach you everything you need to know, but you're better off having some starting point. candle stick patterns and technical analysis have been bunk in my opinion. but like most things you need to experiment and work really hard to be successful. Elon musk did not sell a course on building rocket ships. he did the work and became rich. Steve Jobs did not sell a webinar on how to build a personal computer, he went out and did it. Trading gurus can't trade, period.

you on are on the right path. you can make sense of the markets, but not with the traditional beginner level, flying brown squirrel pattern, style of trading that is pushed to the dumb and desperate. theoretically there is an algorithm that exists that could predict the markets. but you would need billions of inputs and the processing power to compute it all. from a statistical, probability, mathematical approach you have to make assumptions about the market in order to profit.

Quote
Forex Market: No herd! Only 20% want to make profits and the rest just want to exchange their foreign currency in order to do business.
Not exactly true. There are many large entities that have payments due in a currency that is trending towards being expensive. it's highly possible that they will acquire that currency at a lower price to hedge against the increase. this is not speculation like we talk about on FF, but it is a form of speculation that has a direct impact on profits. But as you say it is mostly utilitarian. but who says little guys can't see a wave and ride it?


Quote
I'm thinking let's not use the word RANDOM anymore
i agree. there is a random walk, but price is not random. supply and demand dictate price.


Quote
Ok the point I was trying to make is Charts are meaning less, they can't possibly predict or proximate the future of price. However they're perfect on explaining what happened.
Charts are not meaningless. if you mean can person look at the charts and predict what will happen next, i would agree that you will have 50/50 success failure rate. However the charts can show you S/R levels (herd mentality as you say). it can sho you volume and volatility. the charts can show you trend. and most importantly the charts show you price RiGHT NOW and it's relation to some previous price. Lots of info in the charts.
  • #295
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:06am Jan 18, 2022 5:06am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Do you know that the big time frames are made by 1 minute timeframes? All other Timeframes come from 1 minutes timeframes on MetaQuotes charts. Me looking from this point of view, I don't understand what you said there.
Yes, but if the larger timeframes pay out, and you know which direction they are going how are people losing money on the smaller ones?

Unless....
  • #296
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:22am Jan 18, 2022 5:22am
Quoting beastwork
to answer your original question i do believe most forex education out there is misleading. reading a beginner's book on anything will notteach you everything you need to know, but you're better off having some starting point. candle stick patterns and technical analysis have been bunk in my opinion. but like most things you need to experiment and work really hard to be successful. Elon musk did not sell a course on building rocket ships. he did the work and became rich. Steve Jobs did not sell a webinar on how to build a personal computer, he went...

Best reply I ever had on this thread

I don't know to quote multiple times

If you're a smat and knowledgeable business, you'd know about hedge funds before investing in a foreign markets to avoid have to risk your profits being affected by exchange rates. What a headache having to deal with after working so much for those profits. So maybe there're recless businesses like that but I don't think they're that many

There's no herd mentality on Forex market so there won't be any meaningful trends or S/R levels.

About 50/50 chance. Currently I'm using statistical analysis of incoming ticks then use game theory and money management by Vince. I'm aiming for 50/50 chance to be profitable, it's been close to 90 days now and currently running on +54/-46 it's just a numbers game.

Yes forex charts do have a lot of info on WHAT HAD HAPPENED. Not useful so much though for speculation hence so many lose so much
  • #297
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:26am Jan 18, 2022 5:26am
Quoting EvilEye
{quote} Yes, but if the larger timeframes pay out, and you know which direction they are going how are people losing money on the smaller ones? Unless....
You mean 98% Forex retail traders use smaller ones?

Unless what?
  • #298
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:37am Jan 18, 2022 5:37am
Quoting captalTrader
Try to Google this: Logic behind stock market charts technical analysis. You won't find anything that will tell you the logic behind, everything you'll find will try to teach you how to do the damn thing. The logic is "herd mentality" people see same things then do same things which will influence similar outcome at the end. Everyone get thirsty at the same time, the go drink the river, river dry out. Someone Who want to cross a full river can wait for people to get thirsty, anticipation? River drying out. Pattern =...
A perfectly correct and accurate comment
  • #299
  • Jan 18, 2022 5:45am Jan 18, 2022 5:45am
Here's another point breastwork brought up.

Ok if we agree that analysing charts, you have a 50/50 chance of being right about the direction right?

I can personally say, guarantee me a 50/50 chance and I'll be a billionaire.

Another one can have a 98% chance but crash it all in time.

So tell me, taking this 50/50 chance logic, is chart analysis that important in Forex markets to be profitable?
  • #300
  • Jan 18, 2022 6:14am Jan 18, 2022 6:14am
There's always 10+ people reading this thread but there's only 6 people that votes on my poll? What's going on

You people please vote I beg

I want to sell that data
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