- Joined Dec 2020 | Status: 100% BAVOVNA | 1,530 Posts
Although randomness can be precisely defined and can even be measured, a given number cannot be proved to be random. This enigma establishes a limit to what is possible in mathematics.
- Chaitin
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125770
Cropped figure from the article. Pincus Index for GU and AU. 
The authors concluded that: in general, the forex market is more predictable using one hour ticks than using daily data for the six major pairs, and present evidence suggesting that the variance is easier to predict for longer time frames.
- Chaitin
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125770
if the degree of randomness of the original sequence is similar to the shuffled versions, the PI will be close to one, indicating randomness. If, on the other hand, the original sequence is ordered, the PI will capture the distance from randomness as a fraction.
- Joined Aug 2017 | Status: Just a little Aussi Battler | 4,553 Posts
Lest, I think we should stop. To me the case is clear. Sorry captalTrader, your thread happened to be that place. They are banning everyone on their thread, so the revelation of that BS happened here. I am rarely posting, just in a way you are asking big questions and there is a crazy person in the neighboring room claiming that he can jump to the moon... so your questions do not make sense then. If they (aussie, dingoman, digger and the co) were true then your thread and many other things would not make sense. Like I said Rick, being a very experienced...
2.5 and 3.00 contract's at a time,
Aussie and Digger taught me.
It all so depends on your account size and the number of contracts you are prepared to take on,
For me, I am happy to continue helping others.
What's your excuse??
- Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
{quote} Ignored users can't post spam in your threads.. A hint.
Thanks a lot
- Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Although randomness can be precisely defined and can even be measured, a given number cannot be proved to be random. This enigma establishes a limit to what is possible in mathematics. - Chaitin https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125770 {quote} Cropped figure from the article. Pincus Index for GU and AU. {image}The authors concluded that: in general, the forex market is more predictable using one hour ticks than using daily data for the six major pairs, and present evidence suggesting that the variance is easier to predict for longer...
I'm thinking let's not use the word RANDOM anymore
Ok the point I was trying to make is Charts are meaning less, they can't possibly predict or proximate the future of price. However they're perfect on explaining what happened.
Why I say this? If like for example, Forex market was entirely for speculators or majority or mostly influenced by speculators, charts would have value or Be meaningful, Why? Because let's say if majority of speculators would see similar bullish pattern on the charts then they'll buy that particular pair, by doing so, fullfil the pattern's meaning.
However, speculators only accounts for just less than 20% of the Forex market. In simple example speculators are in a tug of war with the rest of the Forex market, trying to make Eurusd to trend up since it's on a support level, they weight 18 kg competing against a 82kg market.
The majority of the market doesn't speculate, it doesn't need charts, it doesn't need to know how much Euro will be worth one or 2 days from now. The market just want to exchange currencies that's all, hence I say it's a utilitarian market, it's not for creating wealth like the stock market.
- Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
There's another misunderstanding among Most Forex traders that Market Makers are enimies of retail traders. Honestly I can't tell where this is coming from but I can bet it's one of the Gurus marketing jargons they just made up
Market Makers are friends of retail traders, they making trading possible. Without then it would be very hard to find someone who would trade your Euro's with USDs at the exact or close price you want. Instead of finding that matching order from an individual, you can always count on Market Makers to take your trade.
Market Makers do not operate a risk free business. By taking your Euro's for USDs, they risk having now less valuable currency in their inventory than they accured it for. But 98% of the time retail traders are wrong, market makers know this, so to them it's a less risky business, rewards outweighs the risk. How? Retail traders would exchange Euro's for USDs with the market Makers for 1.2 then sell back those same USDs back to market makers for a less price of 1.1, the market maker just pocketed 0.1
Market makers don't do leverage, so they can hold their Euro's in their inventories for longer periods without exchanging them for a loss. However they do exchange for a loss now and then. There's no risk free business.
Market Makers are friends of retail traders, they making trading possible. Without then it would be very hard to find someone who would trade your Euro's with USDs at the exact or close price you want. Instead of finding that matching order from an individual, you can always count on Market Makers to take your trade.
Market Makers do not operate a risk free business. By taking your Euro's for USDs, they risk having now less valuable currency in their inventory than they accured it for. But 98% of the time retail traders are wrong, market makers know this, so to them it's a less risky business, rewards outweighs the risk. How? Retail traders would exchange Euro's for USDs with the market Makers for 1.2 then sell back those same USDs back to market makers for a less price of 1.1, the market maker just pocketed 0.1
Market makers don't do leverage, so they can hold their Euro's in their inventories for longer periods without exchanging them for a loss. However they do exchange for a loss now and then. There's no risk free business.
- Joined May 2017 | Status: Member | 377 Posts
Another most important thing retail traders don't understand that should be a first thing really before anyone risk their hard earned money is this: where does my $10 I just lost on my account went? Who took it?
It's not your broker. Your broker only took the commission (if it's a ECN account) mark-up (spread) if it's STP.
And guess what, It's not the Market Makers too!
Think of it this way... You found yourself a bargain and bought an apple below market value at $1. Apples sell for $1.5 on the market these days (inflation is a biatch). So you expect to sell that Apple for $1.5 and profit $0.5
However you later find that it's was not a bargain to begin with, apples are all over the market (over supplied) they're fucken in season! Less demand, now they go for $0.5 on the market
Even worse, you can't even find a buyer willing to pay for it for that silly $0.5. your apple is about to spoil, quickly! You don't want to lose all your $1!! Now you must offer a competitive price. You decide that you can't ask below $0.45. And finally you get a buyer at $0.45!
You entered a trade at $1, take profit was at $1.5 and stoploss was at $0.45. and your stoploss was hit
-$0.55
My son, 6 years. Understood that
It's not your broker. Your broker only took the commission (if it's a ECN account) mark-up (spread) if it's STP.
And guess what, It's not the Market Makers too!
Think of it this way... You found yourself a bargain and bought an apple below market value at $1. Apples sell for $1.5 on the market these days (inflation is a biatch). So you expect to sell that Apple for $1.5 and profit $0.5
However you later find that it's was not a bargain to begin with, apples are all over the market (over supplied) they're fucken in season! Less demand, now they go for $0.5 on the market
Even worse, you can't even find a buyer willing to pay for it for that silly $0.5. your apple is about to spoil, quickly! You don't want to lose all your $1!! Now you must offer a competitive price. You decide that you can't ask below $0.45. And finally you get a buyer at $0.45!
You entered a trade at $1, take profit was at $1.5 and stoploss was at $0.45. and your stoploss was hit
-$0.55
My son, 6 years. Understood that
- | Joined Mar 2018 | Status: Member | 154 Posts
There's another misunderstanding among Most Forex traders that Market Makers are enimies of retail traders. Honestly I can't tell where this is coming from but I can bet it's one of the Gurus marketing jargons they just made up
Inserted Video
There's another misunderstanding among Most Forex traders that Market Makers are enimies of retail traders. Honestly I can't tell where this is coming from but I can bet it's one of the Gurus marketing jargons they just made up
Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.