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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

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  • First Post: Edited Apr 8, 2022 2:07pm Jan 13, 2022 1:42pm | Edited Apr 8, 2022 2:07pm
I was wrong!!! Not even Mathematics can be used to make profits on the Forex Market!

My calculations were wrong or inaccurate. I did not consider some very important variables. I realized this after the last trade the EA took which was a loss by result of slippage, a huge! slippage. Long story short... Forex markets are not profitable! GO argue with your charts...

HOWEVER night trading is profitable! therefore I have republished my first EA that I made 2015 for FREE this time. There's currently a night trading EA on the market selling for over $1000 W T H!!!

So I decided to republish mine, which is better by the way, for FREE. But I know people like being scammed, so it won't be as popular but whatever, I'm doing this for people I wasted their time around here, I gave them false hopes.

I'm Sorry! Download the EA here for Free and recover all the money you lost on FOrex then quit!!!

Introduction
I am a programmer; I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the mql5 market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing well but had a flaw of massive drawdown which cancelled a lot of gains in one bad trade, but still profitable in long term far & far better than anything on offer in that period, even today. So mine was better in ‘stable drawdown’ terms. Point is, 6 years later there’s still no profitable strategy besides night trading. You can check it yourself; even signal providers, the only stable ones are those with ‘flouting losses’ base strategies (Overall losers cause they’ll have to deposit at some point to manage drawdown) and night trading. On mql5 market.

Main
I spent a lot of time researching about forex market every time I get a forex client, so lately I spent a great time trying to figure out why everyone is so stupid and couldn’t solve a simple equation, which is:
· Find a certain pattern with a probability of 51% or more
· 49% of the time you lose, make sure you lose less or equal to what you profited 51% of the time
Simple!!!!

So I worked! I started with the most popular indicator which is Japanese Candlesticks, wrote a script that calculates accuracy of certain pattern during certain period of time e.g. how many profitable inside bars in the last 2 years, by profitable I mean 2 pips & more at least.
After 8 months of coding I reached the following conclusions

· Not a single popular pattern is profitable, not even one!
· 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing!

I didn't know there was a research paper published on this point, I wasted so much time on this thanks to user @tommydoginti

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...et_Eurusd_Case

· No such thing as Naked or Price action strategy, it’s a joke because candlesticks are momentum indicators! Duh!
· Forex is a utilitarian market, Retail trading account for only 10% of the $6.6 trillion per day traded volume.
· Most retail trading income comes from Marketing, Yep! The gurus, telegram/Instagram signals and EAs. Almost no one makes money from actual trading. Why?
· Stock Market and Forex market is apple and oranges, nothing in common. So why use candlesticks that were designed for Stocks on Forex?
· Forex Market is random. RANDOM (I replace Random with Chaotic)


Okay these are a facts you won’t find anywhere on the internet because the moment your search include the word ‘forex’ then you will bombarded with all sort of forex marketing material. E.g. googling a simple newbie question like, how forex prices move, will give you a ‘Market maker strategy’ crap as first result or shit like supply and demand, like WTF I just want to know where my $1 I lost went!

So by Random I mean every single transactions going through the market will affect its movement. e.g. Your 0.01 lot sell trade on EURUSD pair means there’s 0.01 units of USD taken off the market, so EURUSD quotes must be adjusted, so is GBPUSD, so is USDJPY, EURGBP and all other pairs! Your little trade on EURUSD will affect all other pairs! YES Market marker strategy is just a crap marketing gimmick made up by the ‘Gurus’. It’s impossible for one individual or a bank to influence/manipulate a pair to move in a particular way.

Bold claims I just made there right? So let me prove it to you. Easy, here’s an exercise for you, do the following equation:
· EURUSD = EURJPY / USDJPY

This means when you divide EURJPY quotes by USDJPY you will get EURUSD quotes. Which then means trades done on EURUSD or any other pair will affect every other pair! Meaning for a ‘Market marker’ to manipulate EURUSD prices to his advantage, he will have to manipulate all the other pairs! This is called Triangular Equilibrium. The entire system is designed around maintaining a stable equilibrium. As one grow in value, several others have to decrease by equivalent amount and that’s why forex charts are generally in range.

Real trading is done on EURUSD, price moved BUT all the other pairs prices must be adjusted as well, meaning more than 90% moves are random. Why no one know this? So much time wasted trying to find a profitable system using candlesticks which are completely useless!

Conclusion
If you compare Apple stock chart with EURUSD chart you will notice that Apple has gained a lot while EURUSD price today is generally the same as it was decades ago. Forex exist to provide a service while stocks are for creating wealth. Everything on the internet about forex is LIES, it’s there just to get money from you, not the other way around, and that’s why you will not find anything about something like Triangular Equilibrium.

It’s mathematically impossible to profit from forex market using traditional methods currently being in used because everyone is looking for a pattern to repeat itself in a random environment…like how???. This is why 98% traders are losers.

It’s not all gloom and doom though because we have Probability mathematics! We can examine the chains of non-overlapping events that follow each other. Probability trees and hypotheses, we can calculate entries based on market processes using fractal-probability chains, e.g. С(n,k) = n! / ( k! * ( n - k )! )
Basically everything in the universe is fractal, so we can use math to calculate defined fractals given that the forex market is random. We currently do this with weather forecasting.

Have I realized this from the beginning, I wouldn’t have wasted so much time. I am currently testing a mathematical approach and it’s promising. I invite all programmers who like math like I do to my project I’m currently busy with.

I couldn’t share trade explorer since forex factory does not support mt5 yet, but I've been testing this idea for almost 3 months now, besides minor bugs here and there, it's really working as it should and profitable, here are the results. I will publish the EA for free on mql5 two weeks from today as I believe it will be safer that way than sharing the file here, for copy write purposes.
the chart algo tends to equalize buys vs sells (anything, candles, pips, time) and that is why making money is hard, even when trading just one direction... buys+sells=0. have you checked the grid? i bet you did not research it so deeply to understand it is impossible to make money using grid... but it is so really?

there is an extra protection in the so called centered grid levels. those in the middle of every visible range (of any size), where these centered grid levels are visited a lot more often than those levels outside the range's center.

those who created the algo, made their choice. Stronger center vs Weaker outside levels.

Also, the pips in the range, from a grid point of view, those pips that make the draw-down of a single grid level (combined) almost always equals the pips travelled when the range is left behind... this is how the 0 balance is restored.

limit grid pips = stop grid pips.

i took a lot of hits about the close by hedge closure on this forum. being explaining, for ages, the zero balance between the buys and the sells everywhere (grid, candles, even time, ext.), but here they think i am stupid... will make their conclusions of my stupidity to come instantly, cause by the end of Jan'22 will be installing three gold teeth, one is frontal, right in the middle of my smile...

you are wrong about the none profitable systems. even at a low iq as mine (iq69), one knows that only a complete idiot will publicly share such a winning lottery ticket...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
Fores market is random? Hahahaha... I cannot stop laughing. If this is what you gathered since 2015 then you missed some huge points. The forex market is NOT random. Never! Nobody leaves trillions of dollars to be random. The money movers are not that stupid.

It's a pity you came to these conclusions. You see, when you don't get something right don't think others aren't. There are a few things I could tell you, NOBODY taught them to me, I learnt them by watching the charts for hours during live market times and noticing things that people who have traded for more than 10 years haven't noticed and it surprises me.

Anyway, let me say this: there are a few things I personally gleaned from the market that if you knew them you would be shocked. You could scalp at least 20 or more pips with almost 100% precision every single time. I am really not willing to share such info because it took sweat and blood to make sense out of everything. The simple chart you see has ALL the information anybody needs to make profit. This is the truth. The only mistake I ever make is when I enter trades due to fear of missing out. I enter impatiently. But as for knowing when to enter and pluck 10 - 30 pips every, every, every single time, that's easy.

Look again. There are clues. And the really profitable guys never go around sharing what they know. If they did then the real movers of the price would readjust their algos to nullify it. Japanese candlesticks are usually not used as indicators (well, I know how to use it as such, but not the conventional way); and it isn't meant to show you momentum. The real purpose is to show you the Open, High, Low, Close.

In the FX market, a key component that was taken away from the public is volume. And then real order flow. And this is because the market isn't centralised, and intentionally so. However, there are those who have a way to work around this limitation. I personally have a way around it. Never to be talked about. I once made the mistake of sharing a major pattern I discovered and literally thousands of people were using it and talked about it. In a short while I noticed that it was shaken up. That wasn't random; it was intentionally dismantled by those moving the markets.

In conclusion, the FX market is not random. Was never random and will never be random. Pick a 15 minutes chart, especially of the pairs I trade and I could easily tell you which areas would get hit first before other areas with perfect precision and this without any indicators. The indicator I use is used in a special way.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Mitiblotch
Fores market is random? Hahahaha... I cannot stop laughing. If this is what you gathered since 2015 then you missed some huge points. The forex market is NOT random. Never! Nobody leaves trillions of dollars to be random. The money movers are not that stupid. It's a pity you came to these conclusions. You see, when you don't get something right don't think others aren't. There are a few things I could tell you, NOBODY taught them to me, I learnt them by watching the charts for hours during live market times and noticing things that people who have...
You're funny because you sound like someone expecting someone to beg for your 'found' secret for a small fee.

I'm not here to argue with you Gurus anyway, who em I.

Please can I ask you this though, who are these Movers you're talking about?
Quoting MoneyZilla
the chart algo tends to equalize buys vs sells (anything, candles, pips, time) and that is why making money is hard, even when trading just one direction... buys+sells=0. have you checked the grid? i bet you did not research it so deeply to understand it is impossible to make money using grid... but it is so really? there is an extra protection in the so called centered grid levels. those in the middle of every visible range (of any size), where these centered grid levels are visited a lot more often than those levels outside the range's center....
Thank you for engaging.

Range trading would work perfectly without leverage, but then you wouldn't make any money plus you'll need love some of monies.

Saying I'm wrong about none profitable systems, please show me one profitable one. Just one. Nothing fancy, just 3 months worth of profitable history.
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} You're funny because you sound like someone expecting someone to beg for your 'found' secret for a small fee. I'm not here to argue with you Gurus anyway, who em I. Please can I ask you this though, who are these Movers you're talking about?
Be the Remora Fish, you cant take on the sharks, they are too big & powerful. You will get eaten.

Feed off the sharks scraps, plenty for retail traders.

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Follow the Money
Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

- - - - -

I think what those “forex educators (?)” offer is based on what they as an individual have observed themselves.

Selling it to someone then, and having the purchaser believe success will be theirs, well that is another thing entirely.

Misleading might be harsh, but who knows.


IMHO there is NO absolute direct GPS

for forex

via any indi OR any purchased system methodology which can get you to your required destination without interruptions and in the most direct route possible.


Educators can all ‘point you’ in a general direction.

But then they might also lead you into a dead-end street.

Or worse, to the dark end of town where you get mugged.


And I’m thinking it’s only stupid (to do something/anything) when you are at the point where you know something DOESN’T work, yet you continue.
Quoting captalTrader
Introduction I am a programmer; I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the mql5 market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing...
Hi CapitalTrader

That was a very interesting post, some points I agree with - actually there was a lot of points you made that are totally correct. Price action trading using candle shapes, patterns or other signals coming out of indicator signals mostly all fail badly and just destroy traders accounts.
I am also in your camp that the market is mostly random. Humans always look for and find patterns in charts that the big players have purposely build to destroy them where ever possible. Markets are indeed random in nature but non random in design. If we can break down the building blocks of price movement, we then realise we don't need to care about random or non random markets what so ever. Its just not important.

What you have yet not idenified is why they fail - and its not bloody factuals - probabilities or other mathamatic chains.
Its two ingredients you haven't mentioned.

A EA won't help - the best minds in the world couldn't make them work either so they just did something else - and now almost never lose.

Please don't waste your next five years building EA's unless you can find enough stupid traders to sell them to.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Thank you for engaging. Range trading would work perfectly without leverage, but then you wouldn't make any money plus you'll need love some of monies. Saying I'm wrong about none profitable systems, please show me one profitable one. Just one. Nothing fancy, just 3 months worth of profitable history.
Buying only. Gold. 21+ months in a row.
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This one already has over 2 times improvement in the draw-down vs returns department. And finally can be traded with just $1,000 USD regular account. Took me 20+ months to adjust it so. And there is still a room for even better improvement.

In a trend, for me, it is impossible to tell when the next short counter trend direction change will be. However, once they start to annual range it, like now, they usually turn it down around the zone where the draw-down equals the profit. If the session gets into -$1,000 of a draw-down, the max profit they offer is the same exact +$1,000 net (covering all losses) and then the down leg starts. This is easy to understand, as everything buys = everything sells (usually). Clearly in range that is move visible. But how exactly they doing manage that in the bigger moves? That one is a big mystery to me...
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they do mathematical equation where buys vs the sells are always striving to be close to ~0 as a final outcome. ~0 is not a constant value, but it being taken care of periodically. And that one, in precise, makes trading to be hard as hell...

Using my own method, on any 1,000 pips movement ($100 on gold), there is between 20% and 25% less draw-down promotion. If one buy trade stays opened, like a fixed trade and it is not dynamically moved around, the pips draw-down would be the same exact -1,000 pips. me is having between -750 to -800 pips draw-down, just because i am using their 20%-25% off promotion... in the grid promotion all trading expenses are included, so it is a net 20-25% off the grid.

in the last image, the ea does almost nothing when the fall down starts and there is no 25% less draw-down pips promotion for me. however, the draw-down falls dramatically, like x10+ times less draw-downs with x2+ higher returns on an equal basis...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
Quoting captalTrader
· 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing! · No such thing as Naked or Price action strategy, it’s a joke because candlesticks are momentum indicators! Duh!
Man, I'm your fan!

In my opinion forex "education" is misleading, fake and deliberately wrong. Forex is surrounded by nonsense and fairy tales.

For example check investopedia website. I can find 10 lies in their articles in 2 minutes. But people read it and then re-post everyday. My lovely example is about RSI or Stoch "oversold" areas.

With which I cannot agree is that market is random. It is not for sure.
I think it is math.

For example yesterday there were 2 tries to go through EMA 240. Yes it looks stupid but the question is not about type of moving average or its length.
So, it was 2 tries. Total volume used to make was 10 million coins every time.
Then one trader asked me for advice, what position to open. I said, that the big player is accumulating, waiting for gamblers to open their positions and set their stop losses. Then he asked me when to expect the breakthrough? I said that until the total amount will be >10 mil. It was about 700k per candle, so about 14 hours.
And it was made exactly like I said. Why? Because of math. To trigger stop cascade feature you need liquidity. Stops are liquidity.
Observer effect
Quoting captalTrader
Introduction I am a programmer; I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the mql5 market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing...
From what I tested, the market is chaotic but not random. If you have found the mathematics approach working, that kind of proves the point. A completely random model would render all probabilistic calculations regressing to profit factor of 1.

But I agree with you, regression and probability is something worth investigating in trading and so far IMO it works should the strategy is automated or mechanical. Regression models are pretty good and less complicated than AI or Neural in programming, but you are programmer should have no problem going higher level.

Good luck!
easy first you must know what a chart does why a swap why a spread so early education is so important , i see most traders want to make easy money without learning and fail and fail again ,if you dont know you will never never learn ,
ONE MUST LEARN, DO IT AND IT WILL BE KIND TO YOU
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} You're funny because you sound like someone expecting someone to beg for your 'found' secret for a small fee. I'm not here to argue with you Gurus anyway, who em I. Please can I ask you this though, who are these Movers you're talking about?
Forget it. I have never asked anybody to pay me for whatever. I wrote what I wrote to inspire you to look again. Research again. You can see it if you look hard enough. The things I found out myself I teach the or two people around me who trade forex. Most people around me do not trade. Also, there are many other people who found stuff out and don't talk about it.

I wish you success.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Aussi
easy first you must know what a chart does why a swap why a spread so early education is so important , i see most traders want to make easy money without learning and fail and fail again ,if you dont know you will never never learn ,
Aha! Someone who knows what he is talking about. Why swap? Who gains from it? Why spread? How does swap affect market movement. These are excellent questions to start from.
https://www.myfxbook.com/members/mitiblotch/mt5-10567385/9464692
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} Be the Remora Fish, you cant take on the sharks, they are too big & powerful. You will get eaten. Feed off the sharks scraps, plenty for retail traders. {image}
Who are the sharks? Is is something you grabbed around these forums or its a fact you can prove. Do you know how the markets work really? Besides the marketing crap found on forums like this?
Quoting TimeTells
Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid? - - - - - I think what those “forex educators (?)” offer is based on what they as an individual have observed themselves. Selling it to someone then, and having the purchaser believe success will be theirs, well that is another thing entirely. Misleading might be harsh, but who knows. IMHO there is NO absolute direct GPS for forex via any indi OR any purchased system methodology which can get you to your required destination without interruptions and in the most direct route possible. Educators...
" And I’m thinking it’s only stupid (to do something/anything) when you are at the point where you know something DOESN’T work, yet you continue."

Sadly that's what 98% of retail traders are doing. Personally I believe it's more like 99.9%
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi CapitalTrader That was a very interesting post, some points I agree with - actually there was a lot of points you made that are totally correct. Price action trading using candle shapes, patterns or other signals coming out of indicator signals mostly all fail badly and just destroy traders accounts. I am also in your camp that the market is mostly random. Humans always look for and find patterns in charts that the big players have purposely build to destroy them where ever possible. Markets are indeed random in nature but non random...

Hello RickM

Thank you for taking your time participating on this discussion, I really appreciate it.

Firstly the "building blocks are public knowledge, just hard to find since they're burried under the marketing crap all over the internet.

How price move? Simply put, Apple Inc need to pay for $1 billion worth of merchandise from Japan or china, they'll have to convert the dollars to yuan's for example, $ 1 billion worth of dollars will be sold for Yuan's, Quotes for USDJPY get adjusted so does all other pairs available on the market just from this one particular transaction. Hence I'm saying Forex building blocks were not made for wealth creation or making of profits, it was made for a service, it's a utility.

I'm a methamathician, simplifying things comes naturally to me. Charts are for stocks, there, there's real trading being the quotes you see, so charts have meaning. My idea doesn't use charts, I focus on ticks as they come, not past ticks. This is complex subject, I'll need a whole article to explain. But replying to "wasting another five years" No sir/madam I'm not trying to build an EA that will find magical patterns on the charts... No please
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} Buying only. Gold. 21+ months in a row. {image} {image} This one already has over 2 times improvement in the draw-down vs returns department. And finally can be traded with just $1,000 USD regular account. Took me 20+ months to adjust it so. And there is still a room for even better improvement. In a trend, for me, it is impossible to tell when the next short counter trend direction change will be. However, once they start to annual range it, like now, they usually turn it down around the zone where the draw-down equals the profit. If the...
"In a trend, for me, it is impossible to tell when the next short counter trend direction change will be"

There are no trends, there are no zones, there are no supports. It's a utilitarian programme/structure or "market". It's purpose is to provide a service.

Someone Please prove me wrong here first.
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Sadly that's what 98% of retail traders are doing. Personally I believe it's more like 99.9%

Hi cT,

Yes all those percentages are possible for sure.

The worry is that this can be masked from a traders’ understanding as they manoeuvre from one unworkable methodology to another
(I’ve done it in the past myself, searching for ‘methodology’ prior to an understanding).

Switching indi’s, templates etc, but can still be missing the important essential ingredient, which is the well organised retail market orchestrations we trade (which also includes an ‘apparent’ randomness) and this is where traders might get bogged down for long periods.
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Man, I'm your fan! In my opinion forex "education" is misleading, fake and deliberately wrong. Forex is surrounded by nonsense and fairy tales. For example check investopedia website. I can find 10 lies in their articles in 2 minutes. But people read it and then re-post everyday. My lovely example is about RSI or Stoch "oversold" areas. With which I cannot agree is that market is random. It is not for sure. I think it is math. For example yesterday there were 2 tries...
What I mean by Random is, your 0.01 lot transaction/trade on market will affect the whole forex market, even those 'big player' will be affected by your 0.01 lot trade. Every forex pair on the market, will be adjusted by your 0.01 lot trade. There is no order to that, no one has a power to control that not even the biggest reserve bank in the world. The Swiss tried for years and finally gave up.
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