Looks like they are going to 1.13.
- #144,023
- Jan 14, 2022 8:01am Jan 14, 2022 8:01am
- Joined Jun 2018 | Status: An ordinary brother | 4,595 Posts
- #144,032
- Edited 2:50am Jan 15, 2022 1:55am | Edited 2:50am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Alive | 523 Posts
For me week 2, 2022 started nice enough. Ended -31%. It's the fourth consecutive losing week. 9 weeks running geometric average still 1.1 because this week's result was the same as the week that got dropped in the count. The damage will become more apparent in the next weeks unless I make large gains.
Wednesday I was long before the spike. Closed it expecting a large drop.
1. Move extended more than I expected. Did nothing.
2. Identify previous day top as reversal point. Build a large short during Asia session. Reduce short size on down moves, taking out the lowest gaining orders first, or buying as a partial hedge. Increase the short on up moves. London session starts. Highest sell limit orders filled at the highest expected levels still below previous day's high. I'm nearly all in short and waiting to drop the long hedge at the beginning of the down move.
3. Against expectations, it breaks through. Placed Buy stops triggered (plus I had still the longs bought below as partial hedge). Floating loss is totally acceptable, by my standards. Within very few minutes I start shorting again (??) for a quick comeback and possibly long reversal. Losses pile up.
4. After some indecision, I build short again.
5. Get fooled into hedging the short by the new high. Simply, I expected it to go higher and ride it fully hedged to gradually drop the long hedge. Instead it starts dropping almost immediately.
6. Take out longs and shorts on up and down moves, respectively. Recover some of the losses but close the day at -47% weekly. When a move I anticipate strongly, is negated, it almost always comes back. If I had had the confidence and patience I would have been unscathed.
7. I enter late the Asia up. The up ends sooner than I expected. Losing money as it drops.
8. I start building my short on the up retr. too quickly. I get anxious and again lock in a loss hedging. Only later, in the bottom third of the orange box, I go for the short direction. By then the loss reaches about -55%
9. Gradually, I go heavy short. The break of the trendline from the mofo negated drop, the day before, is far more laborious than such things usually are. Many were still hurting from that. In any case I hold on, all in short, even through a margin call. I get out before the 15:30 data release.
10. Easy scalps, mostly on the short side, but no repositioning short as the drop extends below my target. Plus I'm too tired. -31%.
Impulsive and nervous following the major blow of having my strong expectation dashed on Thursday.
---------------------------------------
It's retesting 1.1497 (from the weekly chart). Slowing on approach to major S/R usually indicates it will break.
Wednesday I was long before the spike. Closed it expecting a large drop.
1. Move extended more than I expected. Did nothing.
2. Identify previous day top as reversal point. Build a large short during Asia session. Reduce short size on down moves, taking out the lowest gaining orders first, or buying as a partial hedge. Increase the short on up moves. London session starts. Highest sell limit orders filled at the highest expected levels still below previous day's high. I'm nearly all in short and waiting to drop the long hedge at the beginning of the down move.
3. Against expectations, it breaks through. Placed Buy stops triggered (plus I had still the longs bought below as partial hedge). Floating loss is totally acceptable, by my standards. Within very few minutes I start shorting again (??) for a quick comeback and possibly long reversal. Losses pile up.
4. After some indecision, I build short again.
5. Get fooled into hedging the short by the new high. Simply, I expected it to go higher and ride it fully hedged to gradually drop the long hedge. Instead it starts dropping almost immediately.
6. Take out longs and shorts on up and down moves, respectively. Recover some of the losses but close the day at -47% weekly. When a move I anticipate strongly, is negated, it almost always comes back. If I had had the confidence and patience I would have been unscathed.
7. I enter late the Asia up. The up ends sooner than I expected. Losing money as it drops.
8. I start building my short on the up retr. too quickly. I get anxious and again lock in a loss hedging. Only later, in the bottom third of the orange box, I go for the short direction. By then the loss reaches about -55%
9. Gradually, I go heavy short. The break of the trendline from the mofo negated drop, the day before, is far more laborious than such things usually are. Many were still hurting from that. In any case I hold on, all in short, even through a margin call. I get out before the 15:30 data release.
10. Easy scalps, mostly on the short side, but no repositioning short as the drop extends below my target. Plus I'm too tired. -31%.
Impulsive and nervous following the major blow of having my strong expectation dashed on Thursday.
---------------------------------------
It's retesting 1.1497 (from the weekly chart). Slowing on approach to major S/R usually indicates it will break.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
- #144,033
- Jan 16, 2022 1:36am Jan 16, 2022 1:36am
{image} According to the astrological factors, it is expected that at the specified times, their repetition in the relevant time and the Win rate in these times, the eurusd will form a minor or major pivot. 10 Jan 2022--------15 Jan 2022 GMT +3:30
- #144,034
- Jan 16, 2022 11:43pm Jan 16, 2022 11:43pm
According to the astrological factors, it is expected that at the specified times, their repetition in the relevant time and the Win rate in these times, the eurusd will form a minor or major pivot. 17 Jan 2022--------21 Jan 2022 GMT +3:30
Win Rate : Related to events in the last 20 years
Repetition: The number of times deifferent events were simultaneous 
Win Rate : Related to events in the last 20 years
Repetition: The number of times deifferent events were simultaneous
- #144,035
- Jan 17, 2022 1:25am Jan 17, 2022 1:25am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,132 Posts
Hi and Happy New Week Traders...
- The 1.1500 resistance level I warned bulls last week has now dropped to 1.1485-ish.. Still not clear if bulls can break it.. Time will tell..
- For now, my nearest support sits around 1.1355 and my main support is at 1.1328..
- Overall, bulls still have the upper hand, but if they waste too much time, retests to previous lows can be anticipated.
I hope it helps.. 
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #144,040
- Edited 12:10pm Jan 17, 2022 11:50am | Edited 12:10pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jan 2021 | 250 Posts
EURUSD Intraday Long & EURUSD Intraday Short idea: {image} If the short fires first, then scrap the long. Have a 0.5 position size lined up for the short, and just a 0.25 position size lined up for the long.
Would forget about the short for now. Re-assess on Asian Open.
Edit: Bailed with ~1.9:1
