EURUSD only

Should be a NICE range day!!!
Lots of reasons to move the market for the CENTRAL BANKS CARTEL!!!

You're right, we are in place on market where a lot of peopole starting to trust that we've finally "bulls time" on EURSUd ( and a lot of signs support this look, beacuse after couples days of consolidation eurusd formed smt what we can call bottom, and after it started bounce with apparent ( still we not finish week, so still is apparent) borken trend line on weekly, but from 2nd side for a lot o people is the best place to tarting trade short, beacuse where will be better place ( with the best RR ) to trade it if not here ?

Personally i'm still bearish and play shorts, but i suppose that in nearest hours ( maybe days) marekt will be like waves on ocean and erase a lot of position on both direction.

PS. i have now opened short at 1.1475 with SL at 1.1525, with open TP. My plan is adding shorts if price will go down ( firstly if pass 1.1440 and close 1h under).



Green pips for all!

Looks like they are going to 1.13.

It's the beginning of a beary good day

+ 26 pips so far. It'ss not bad for 7 hours.
But DX wants to goes more up.

Holding shorts, looking for it to drop to 1.139 today.

I added shorts, at 1.1439, as i said before noon.

i'll look how price will react fo 1.14 level ( my main target is area: 1.1355-70, where we have 200 SMA and first Fibo level of retracement )

Green pips for all!

Wouldnt be surprised to see a drop straight to 1.1425 at the US open:
-$1.6 billion option expiration at 1.1425
-$1.8 billion option expiration at 1.1290

I typically don't pay much attention to options expiring unless over $1 billion. There are over $3 billion in options expiring this morning one EURUSD. Will def make markets move. Even if its the wrong direction.

Could be a BIG move. I am currently short, but looking for a long entry. As my post said before, I think 1.157 to 1.16 is in the cards soon. Poor US sales data this morning will only keep the USD under pressure moving forward. US bonds getting bought up after the release as well.

Cheers

Does anyone find it odd that the price drops to 1.1425 right at the option expiring? That's why I pay attention to it. Closed 1/2 my position, and moved stop loss to break even for the remainder. As price could continue down.

Watching volume for confirmation for BUY.

Have a good weekend!

Hieroglyphs

No change in trend unless a monthly close above 1.1700...although sometimes it appears that way.

FYI: US Market Holiday Monday..

Martin Luther King Jr. Day -- Monday, January 17, 2022

..

Terrible US consumer data but e/u drops? Do you guys think it's due to the war talk and tensions in Europe?

For me week 2, 2022 started nice enough. Ended -31%. It's the fourth consecutive losing week. 9 weeks running geometric average still 1.1 because this week's result was the same as the week that got dropped in the count. The damage will become more apparent in the next weeks unless I make large gains.

Wednesday I was long before the spike. Closed it expecting a large drop.
1. Move extended more than I expected. Did nothing.
2. Identify previous day top as reversal point. Build a large short during Asia session. Reduce short size on down moves, taking out the lowest gaining orders first, or buying as a partial hedge. Increase the short on up moves. London session starts. Highest sell limit orders filled at the highest expected levels still below previous day's high. I'm nearly all in short and waiting to drop the long hedge at the beginning of the down move.
3. Against expectations, it breaks through. Placed Buy stops triggered (plus I had still the longs bought below as partial hedge). Floating loss is totally acceptable, by my standards. Within very few minutes I start shorting again (??) for a quick comeback and possibly long reversal. Losses pile up.
4. After some indecision, I build short again.
5. Get fooled into hedging the short by the new high. Simply, I expected it to go higher and ride it fully hedged to gradually drop the long hedge. Instead it starts dropping almost immediately.
6. Take out longs and shorts on up and down moves, respectively. Recover some of the losses but close the day at -47% weekly. When a move I anticipate strongly, is negated, it almost always comes back. If I had had the confidence and patience I would have been unscathed.
7. I enter late the Asia up. The up ends sooner than I expected. Losing money as it drops.
8. I start building my short on the up retr. too quickly. I get anxious and again lock in a loss hedging. Only later, in the bottom third of the orange box, I go for the short direction. By then the loss reaches about -55%
9. Gradually, I go heavy short. The break of the trendline from the mofo negated drop, the day before, is far more laborious than such things usually are. Many were still hurting from that. In any case I hold on, all in short, even through a margin call. I get out before the 15:30 data release.
10. Easy scalps, mostly on the short side, but no repositioning short as the drop extends below my target. Plus I'm too tired. -31%.

Impulsive and nervous following the major blow of having my strong expectation dashed on Thursday.

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It's retesting 1.1497 (from the weekly chart). Slowing on approach to major S/R usually indicates it will break.

According to the astrological factors, it is expected that at the specified times, their repetition in the relevant time and the Win rate in these times, the eurusd will form a minor or major pivot. 17 Jan 2022--------21 Jan 2022 GMT +3:30

Win Rate : Related to events in the last 20 years
Repetition: The number of times deifferent events were simultaneous

Hi and Happy New Week Traders...

1. The 1.1500 resistance level I warned bulls last week has now dropped to 1.1485-ish.. Still not clear if bulls can break it.. Time will tell..
2. For now, my nearest support sits around 1.1355 and my main support is at 1.1328..
3. Overall, bulls still have the upper hand, but if they waste too much time, retests to previous lows can be anticipated.

I hope it helps..

Good morning, hope you're well. I think 1.1434 could be a resistance.

Hi to All in new week!

At last hour we had 1H bar closed under 100SMA, with EURUSD is fighting from 18 trading hours, so if in this hour we will stay under i think we'll go to tes area 1.1360-70, where we have a lot of supports ( 200SMA on H1, first fibo on retrecement and upper band from bottom formation ).

Im still with my shorst, and i will add after close 1h under 1.14.

Green pips for all!

I also am going LONG. As I suspected, with US markets closed today and coupon payment being made on the 10yr of 01-15-2022. I have now completely closed my short position, and I am loading up LONG, looking for 1.157 to possibly overshoot to 1.161. Then I suspect a big drop to my ultimate bottom this year ~1.08. All we have to do for this confirmation is watch for a large volume spike to confirm the exit of the long positions from November. I suspect that will come around the 1.1565 area, and momentum to carry it to 1.157 to 1.161.

Cheers!