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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #41
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:11am Jan 14, 2022 6:11am
Fringe theory about marketplace to come and OP will turn commercial member
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Air force
  • #42
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:28am Jan 14, 2022 6:28am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} "In a trend, for me, it is impossible to tell when the next short counter trend direction change will be" There are no trends, there are no zones, there are no supports. It's a utilitarian programme/structure or "market". It's purpose is to provide a service. Someone Please prove me wrong here first.
I dont believe in your beliefs.

How can you prove yourself right?
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #43
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:31am Jan 14, 2022 6:31am
Quoting phoenix777
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-30003693 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/barc...ng-cartel.html is it random?
This was about banks cheating other banks and insurance/hedge funds etc. With spreads and swaps

What it has to do with forex prices?
  • #44
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:32am Jan 14, 2022 6:32am
Quoting W0lfram
Fringe theory about marketplace to come and OP will turn commercial member{image}
The OP does not provide any proofs for the market being random, but demands us to prove him wrong on the same...
Maadik Hugiis. IQ 69.
  • #45
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:33am Jan 14, 2022 6:33am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Simplify this simulated algorithm for someone with a 10 year old IQ like me sir please Thank you
Hide the candles and look at the programmed sine wave.
No one risks trillions of dollars without knowing the outcome first!
  • #46
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:41am Jan 14, 2022 6:41am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} "In a trend, for me, it is impossible to tell when the next short counter trend direction change will be" There are no trends, there are no zones, there are no supports. It's a utilitarian programme/structure or "market". It's purpose is to provide a service. Someone Please prove me wrong here first.
" There are no trends,there no zones there are no S&R" really??? Are you saying that for really??? Which forex are you trading
I live in the future
  • #47
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:44am Jan 14, 2022 6:44am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} I am, among other things, and economist. As an economist, I really like this question. Yes, the candlesticks have meaning, but it might not mean what you think or want it to mean, and it does not carry the same direct meaning that candlesticks on the E$ or $Y (again, depending on what you mean by meaning). From a macroeconomic viewpoint, the charts and candle formations are representations of value and changing value. From a behavioral economist point of view, the charts and candle formation represent a behavior model of the people who trade...
Great! You're an economist.

By meaning I mean, before a bank deal my 1 billion dollars exchange to jpy, do they first look at the USDJPY support and say, ah sir we're sorry we can't deal at the moment look's there's going be some buyers at this level, let's wait for the next resistance level the we can take your trade?

And perhaps before you answer that, tell if insurance companies use these charts to decide when to do business? Do ordinary people wanting to trade their currencies at the airports look at the charts beforehand or their transaction doesn't count on Forex price movements only speculators influence prices with their support levels and what nots?
  • #48
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:47am Jan 14, 2022 6:47am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Hide the candles and look at the programmed sine wave. No one risks trillions of dollars without knowing the outcome first!

What outcome? Do you know what hedge funds are for? What's the difference between a billion dollar transaction and with my airport exchange transaction?

Do you think without charts, currency prices will stop counting?
  • #49
  • Jan 14, 2022 6:52am Jan 14, 2022 6:52am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What outcome? Do you know what hedge funds are for? What's the difference between a billion dollar transaction and with my airport exchange transaction? Do you think without charts, currency prices will stop counting?
Yes thanks.
And you’re not remotely trading with the big boys.
  • #50
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:00am Jan 14, 2022 7:00am
Quoting MoneyZilla
{quote} The OP does not provide any proofs for the market being random, but demands us to prove him wrong on the same...
Perhaps I didn't make myself clear enough. Let me try again.

I'm saying the market is random because it's impossible to control the buying and selling, someone might buy and someone sell at the same time for completely different reasons.

You say there's big players? I say yes big players make big transaction possible, the random buying and selling.

Then there's speculation that account for only less than 20% of the 6.6 trillion market (2019). Speculators believe prices are rational, In theory, moved by other speculators after seeing same obvious pattern.

If you don't get the point I made here then cool, continue making those millions with your 'trends' there's nothing to see here.

Come back when I finally turned commercial
  • #51
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:03am Jan 14, 2022 7:03am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Yes thanks. And you’re not remotely trading with the big boys.

I don't trade yes.

But my airport exchange influence the big boys, so is your 0.01 lot trade, if you trade with a non dealing broker of course

Cheers mate
  • #52
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:10am Jan 14, 2022 7:10am
The funny thing is, all of you here are part of the 99.99% traders but here you're shooting at me for Dearing to disturb your way of thinking and doing things by suggesting a different approach to this difficult equation

Keep on doing the same things and expect different results maybe, just maybe one day you will be off this forum, recover all the monies you have lost doing what Albert discribed as insanity and find yourself cruising with your boat somewhere in the Pacific.

sorry for disturbing your peaceful trading mates, peace
  • #53
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:16am Jan 14, 2022 7:16am
Quoting captalTrader
I'm saying the market is random because it's impossible to control the buying and selling, someone might buy and someone sell at the same time for completely different reasons.
But there are a reason why they do so.

For example, you see 15 candles is a row with huge sell delta. What that mean? And then next with huge buy delta? That mean, that big player has collected all the stops already and start to fix the position. So jump in and make a noise for that player for 0.0001%. You will open and close the position sitting on the back of a whale. No one will notice you. It will just be a statistical deviation that will be smoothed out and imperceptible.

Money does not grow on trees, which is why no one shows where the stops are, which is why volume data is hidden. And the one who has these data, as well as the one who knows how to work with them, earn in this market. All the rest draw rectangles, lines and upload content to YouTube.

And the funnies part: you don't need to read any news, don't need to know that USD is the reserve currency, don't need to analyze Elon's tweets. All you have to analyze is the big player behavior. Because that big player already made all the analytics for you using their power (money, brains, time).
Observer effect
  • #54
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:19am Jan 14, 2022 7:19am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} I don't trade yes. But my airport exchange influence the big boys, so is your 0.01 lot trade, if you trade with a non dealing broker of course Cheers mate
No one trading retail Forex is trading anything other than a simulated data feed. Money in or out has no bearing on price movement.
  • #55
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:20am Jan 14, 2022 7:20am
best answer Ive seen here about market randomness

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...13#post3390413
  • #56
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:21am Jan 14, 2022 7:21am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Great! You're an economist. By meaning I mean, before a bank deal my 1 billion dollars exchange to jpy, do they first look at the USDJPY support and say, ah sir we're sorry we can't deal at the moment look's there's going be some buyers at this level, let's wait for the next resistance level the we can take your trade? And perhaps before you answer that, tell if insurance companies use these charts to decide when to do business? Do ordinary people wanting to trade their currencies at the airports look at the charts beforehand or their transaction...
Thanks and now I have a better understanding of your background and thinking. Best wishes!
  • #57
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:24am Jan 14, 2022 7:24am
Quoting captalTrader
The funny thing is, all of you here are part of the 99.99% traders but here you're shooting at me for Dearing to disturb your way of thinking and doing things by suggesting a different approach to this difficult equation Keep on doing the same things and expect different results maybe, just maybe one day you will be off this forum, recover all the monies you have lost doing what Albert discribed as insanity and find yourself cruising with your boat somewhere in the Pacific. sorry for disturbing your peaceful trading mates, peace
Yes- yes, 99.99%... there is the same herd of the smartest with a revolutionary view of the marketplace, who is about to solve/already solved something. Good luck.
Air force
  • #58
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:38am Jan 14, 2022 7:38am
Surely the big banks, big funds, even big market makers pick each others pockets when then see an opportunity. If they are waiting to get rich taking my 100 euro account, good luck.

Is it possible to find an angle that no one else has, probably not.



@capital,

by night trading, you mean off peak hours ?
Focus on what DIDN'T happen
  • #59
  • Jan 14, 2022 7:45am Jan 14, 2022 7:45am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} No one trading retail Forex is trading anything other than a simulated data feed. Money in or out has no bearing on price movement.

Yep, could well be that we in Retail Forex are in our own "ring-fenced" world away from the real currency exchanging that goes on externally betwen banks and large companies etc.

Maybe those Liquidity Providers to our Brokers would take ALL our trades, each and every one buy OR sell, and just hang on to them until the spikes and dips shake out weak hands and they can snatch a cut off the top of the whole pot (ie the LPs may not be after every retail dollar just a certain % cut whatever that may be). This is not so much a malicious act imo, just good business for some and actually ALLOWS us in retail to participate at our own private level.

Trillons of dollars a day ARE traded in currency exchanging yes.
Maybe someone can show me a candle or group of candles on an MT4 chart where even one of those trillions might have come into our own small MT4 retail world.
To me we operate in very THIN liquidity pools, that I can see daily, in fact there are probably only two times a day - maybe three - when any real liquidity is available - ie the Franky/London opens and then NY.

But I just trade, none of this matters too much to me (well, any more)
  • #60
  • Jan 14, 2022 8:45am Jan 14, 2022 8:45am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} This was about banks cheating other banks and insurance/hedge funds etc. With spreads and swaps What it has to do with forex prices?
I really really admire what you're trying to do, but what you're saying shows you may get some value reading up on market infrastructure or talking to an industry insider. The articles you just dismissed demonstrates:

1. There are very large speculative players in FX
2. They can move the prices of any pair with concerted effort; (that's what they were doing at the fix, its called "banging". You move price with mostly spoofed orders)
3. They do so in secret

The effects you see on the other pairs are just arbitrage traders at their finest..

I'm sincerely interested in your approach though, please do enlighten us..
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