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Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid?

  • #21
  • Jan 14, 2022 2:56am Jan 14, 2022 2:56am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Aha! Someone who knows what he is talking about. Why swap? Who gains from it? Why spread? How does swap affect market movement. These are excellent questions to start from.
I’m explicitly on forex markets.

I’ll do one better… what is triangular equilibriumon forex markets, who designed it, how does it work? Why and what was it designed for? These are excellent questions to start from.
  • #22
  • Jan 14, 2022 3:04am Jan 14, 2022 3:04am
To the next person who is going to argue my ‘Random forex point’ please approach from this eagle…

explain to me why this equation works EURUSD = EURJPY / USDJPY, using your market makers or big players theory or whatever, but please teach me some facts.

Ill appreciate a simple equation too.

Thanks you all for engagements.
  • #23
  • Jan 14, 2022 3:15am Jan 14, 2022 3:15am
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Forget it. I have never asked anybody to pay me for whatever. I wrote what I wrote to inspire you to look again. Research again. You can see it if you look hard enough. The things I found out myself I teach the or two people around me who trade forex. Most people around me do not trade. Also, there are many other people who found stuff out and don't talk about it. I wish you success.

Why can’t you just point me to the correct direction since you can see that I’m lost, helping me and great number of others on this forum? Sparing them from a great loss of precious time and money, what you got to lose?
Why does it have to be so hard? Why can’t babypips teach the ‘correct’ direction, why? Why?
  • #24
  • Jan 14, 2022 3:37am Jan 14, 2022 3:37am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What I mean by Random is, your 0.01 lot transaction/trade on market will affect the whole forex market, even those 'big player' will be affected by your 0.01 lot trade. Every forex pair on the market, will be adjusted by your 0.01 lot trade. There is no order to that, no one has a power to control that not even the biggest reserve bank in the world. The Swiss tried for years and finally gave up.
I am curious which one you believe the Fx is being. I think what you explained here is market being chaotic.

1. The general concept of FX market is a decentralized transaction system governing the relative values of the currencies. It is Chaotic and unpredictable for any party simply because there are too many participants and not knowing what Buy/Sell actions would the others do. Just like the 3-body chaotic system. Hypothetically if one is able to gather all transaction orders and centralize for calculation, he would know exactly where the price will go. On the other hand, big players with sufficient capital can manipulate the market.

2. Some surmise the Fx market is controlled by a single bank, etc. In this case, to all retails and other participants, the market is Chaotic, because of not knowing the big player's next action and when. To that particular "host", the market is certain.

3. If the Fx market is random, then there is no way for any participants to manipulate the price. There would be no stop-loss hunt, liquidity grab. Essentially even the "Smart Money" put all its capital to buy, there will be 50% for it to hunt sell orders. Retail traders in B-book brokers would have equal chance gambling as the central banks. This is the least possible I would believe.
  • #25
  • Jan 14, 2022 3:45am Jan 14, 2022 3:45am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I am curious which one you believe the Fx is being. I think what you explained here is market being chaotic. 1. The general concept of FX market is a decentralized transaction system governing the relative values of the currencies. It is Chaotic and unpredictable for any party simply because there are too many participants and not knowing what Buy/Sell actions would the others do. Just like the 3-body chaotic system. Hypothetically if one is able to gather all transaction orders and centralize for calculation, he would know exactly where...
Chaotic will be the simple word yes. and its not a belief but a fact.

1. Forex is not for making profits through speculation.
2. The so called 'Big Players' don't make money by speculating but by transaction costs.

These are Facts! Then there's theories and marketing gimmicks

And this "big players with sufficient capital can manipulate the market." is mathematically impossible
  • #26
  • Jan 14, 2022 3:50am Jan 14, 2022 3:50am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} Chaotic will be the simple word yes. and its not a belief but a fact. 1. Forex is not for making profits through speculation. 2. The so called 'Big Players' don't make money by speculating but by transaction costs. THese are Facts! Then there's theories and marketing gimicks
I agree banks or other parties that handle the transactions can reap profit from the executions. There are other big players such as governments and funds. Some may not try to earn money by taking the exchange rate differences, for example, Fx a tool to manage import and export of goods.
  • #27
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:07am Jan 14, 2022 4:07am
Hmmm...so, the core guys in the interactive threads trading off price action set-ups are just fabulators? I am pretty sure a couple of them have positive net returns over the course of six or more consecutive months. It all depends on how you quantify being "right". If you are 56% 'win rate' right, but over 5% monthly return, it's right enough for me. I agree that most conventional patterns are misleading, but you will rarely see folks here quote a HS or Double top. They trade S/R zones or fibos pivots and a combo thereof, I believe. Half the craftmanship is knowing how to apply MM to get your RR. Empirical, yes. Irrational, don't think so.
And no, I will not approach no eagle...
  • #28
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:12am Jan 14, 2022 4:12am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I agree banks or other parties that handle the transactions can reap profit from the executions. There are other big players such as governments and funds. Some may not try to earn money by taking the exchange rate differences, for example, Fx a tool to manage import and export of goods.
A lot of people here are mislead thinking the Forex market is about speculation, while the fact is only a tiny winny part is speculative, less than 20% I believe. Hence they're prone to believe that a market maker somewhere want to take their $1000 account. Actually market makers appreciate your liquidity so much! They'll absolutely love for you to stay on the market longer! Imagine loosing 20% of valeuble liquidity provided by the retail traders because you keep hunting their stop losses.
  • #29
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:15am Jan 14, 2022 4:15am
Quoting deukae
Hmmm...so, the core guys in the interactive threads trading off price action set-ups are just fabulators? I am pretty sure a couple of them have positive net returns over the course of six or more consecutive months. It all depends on how you quantify being "right". If you are 56% 'win rate' right, but over 5% monthly return, it's right enough for me. I agree that most conventional patterns are misleading, but you will rarely see folks here quote a HS or Double top. They trade S/R zones or fibos pivots and a combo thereof, I believe. Half the craftmanship...
So your point is 98%/99.9% are stupid?

Fair enough sir thanks for your engagement though I appreciate it
  • #30
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:16am Jan 14, 2022 4:16am
yes. Biggest scamming industry in the world.
Anyone who mentions moving averages, fibs, bbands, stochastocs any of that shit ... run!!!
the new scam is DOM and orderflow. ninja. ohh so smart.

Best traders trade at open / closes of USA and its on the futures markets not fucking forex.

learn auctioning of price and simply get discounts and premiums THEN squeeze liquidity into profit. learn this watch for 3 years full time and then trade with $ and make millions every year by working 2-3 hours max a day.

laughable all the bullshit out there. DO not fall for it. Real traders make millions / 500-2000% a year
  • #31
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:20am Jan 14, 2022 4:20am
No one is dumb for falling for it .and imo trading is not rocket science you are not smart for buying and selling a product. NO successful business man is a genius. ffs its just understanding value and where discounts / liquidity are. Thats it. No tricks

So many people selling courses have NO Idea. none. its insane. Should be illegal.
  • #32
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:29am Jan 14, 2022 4:29am
Quoting Cools81
No one is dumb for falling for it .and imo trading is not rocket science you are not smart for buying and selling a product. NO successful business man is a genius. ffs its just understanding value and where discounts / liquidity are. Thats it. No tricks So many people selling courses have NO Idea. none. its insane. Should be illegal.
Hence I said only people making money are the Gurus who have somehow discovered hidden ways to use What's already out there, meaning everyone else has been stupid all along or wasn't looking hard enough. Crazy staff I tell you. Yes I agree that it should be illegal to advertise anything related to Forex.
  • #33
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:35am Jan 14, 2022 4:35am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} So your point is 98% are stupid? Fair enough sir thanks for your engagement though I appreciate it
Not at all. My point is the few guys who "teach" their trading there, although not educators per se, have a rationale to their methods. Maybe not to your high and mighty standards though. Anyway, good luck with your research.
  • #34
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:38am Jan 14, 2022 4:38am
Quoting captalTrader
Introduction I am a programmer; I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the mql5 market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing...
Trade 28 pairs, correct.
One movement affects another, correct.
Treat the market as a sealed pressure system. If GU moves, the knock on is through the whole system, not just GU but every pair.
The market is random....nope, far from it.
Just a simulated algorithm.
  • #35
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:42am Jan 14, 2022 4:42am
Quoting deukae
{quote} Not at all. My point is the few guys who "teach" their trading there, although not educators per se, have a rationale to their methods. Maybe not to your high and mighty standards though. Anyway, good luck with your research.
My standards are not even that high, just a 51% win rate with loses smaller or equal, never bigger than the profits won 51% of the time, for a period of at least 3 months, that's all.

Thank you for good wishes.
  • #36
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:45am Jan 14, 2022 4:45am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Trade 28 pairs, correct. One movement affects another, correct. Treat the market as a sealed pressure system. If GU moves, the knock on is through the whole system, not just GU but every pair. The market is random....nope, far from it. Just a simulated algorithm.
Simplify this simulated algorithm for someone with a 10 year old IQ like me sir please

Thank you
  • #37
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:48am Jan 14, 2022 4:48am
Quoting captalTrader
{quote} What I mean by Random is, your 0.01 lot transaction/trade on market will affect the whole forex market, even those 'big player' will be affected by your 0.01 lot trade. Every forex pair on the market, will be adjusted by your 0.01 lot trade. There is no order to that, no one has a power to control that not even the biggest reserve bank in the world. The Swiss tried for years and finally gave up.
You are absolutely right! Even 0.01 lot size CAN affect the market. That's why all that "study the chart" time spending are just a waste of time. There will be another setup if you enter the trade.

Now. Let's make a short list of things that plays against us, retail traders. They are:
1. Spread
2. Slippage
3. Swaps
4. Fat finger
5. Lack of knowledge
6. Lack of data
7. ...

For example, there are some exchanges on the market where you can trade crypto and: get rebates for limit orders, get zero spread and positive swaps. But 99.9999% will trade crypto on forex where they will have expensive swap rates, huge spread and fees.

Next example. Who are using volume data it their trading? No one. People think that open, close, high and low data is enough to be profitable. But it is not.

Market, like life in general, seek to zero (balance). That's why people notice that price always hit its average. I think that the only opportunity we have, as small retail traders, is to follow big fish - to exploit market imbalance.

Another one question/example: Who are using calculations to mark stop levels? No one. All "traders" can is no draw lines and think they are their magic support or resistance levels. How may people know what cascade stops are? Few. But this is very, extremely important. Because stops (not limit orders) are the market engine.

Anyway trading is hard. It is like professional sports. You have to be the best to win. You asked if 99% are stupid? For sure. If 99% will be smart there will be no movement on the market ever. Market moves because of degen gamblers pain. It moves on their tears losses (stops).
Observer effect
  • #38
  • Jan 14, 2022 4:56am Jan 14, 2022 4:56am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} You are absolutely right! Even 0.01 lot size CAN affect the market. That's why all that "study the chart" time spending are just a waste of time. There will be another setup if you enter the trade. Now. Let's make a short list of things that plays against us, retail traders. They are: 1. Spread 2. Slippage 3. Swaps 4. Fat finger 5. Lack of knowledge 6. Lack of data 7. ... For example, there are some exchanges on the market where you can trade crypto and: get rebates for limit orders, get zero spread and positive swaps. But 99.9999% will...

All this wisdom you just shared is Gold on stock market.

Forex however is a different animal altogether. Personally I believe the only chance we have is using every chance theories we could find instead.

Crypto exchange are for trading crypto, so they're tradable. Forex on the other hand....

And Forex market don't move because of someone's pain. Retail trading can stop and EURUSD charts will continue to count on as long as world economy still functional.

This bring the most important point you made, knowledge. Forex market is not moved by speculators, speculation is a tiny part of it, Wikipedia says it's only 20%. No 99% can all be profitable and Forex markets will still be fine
  • #39
  • Jan 14, 2022 5:08am Jan 14, 2022 5:08am
Quoting GEfx
{quote} First, the USD is the reserve currency of the world. You need to understand what the actually means, and the role it plays in trading with the majors, and how cross currency valuations, such as the EJ, are derived in the world with a reserve currency. Second, the EUR/JPY rate is a derived rate, just as the GBP/JPY, EUR/CAD and pairs like them are derived pairs (cross currency pairs is their actual name). In the modern FOREX market, there is not a "trading pit" for these pairs, whereas there has always been direct trading of the EUR/USD,...
Perfect Sir!!!!

Although I think you misunderstood me. See what you just explained there have a major conflict with Forex Charts. I don't have time to write in detail but, if Eurjpy prices are determined by trading done on USD or EUR then do candlesticks of Eurjpy charts have any meaning?
  • #40
  • Edited 5:55am Jan 14, 2022 5:44am | Edited 5:55am
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-30003693
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/barc...ng-cartel.html
is it random?
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