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Minimize risk, maximize profit and ride a trend

  • #121
  • Edited 5:35pm Jan 3, 2022 4:55pm | Edited 5:35pm
Dear AdamO, thank you for creating this thread. I also have been trading millipede for about a year now. i must have read the millipede thread over about 4 times


I wish Graham was around, and also wish the The Real Thing was here. I would like to thank them for helping me understand the simple fact that has taken me over 20 years to understand - which is to (a) participate in the market (b) be patient (c) add positions (d) go back to step 'a'

I am convinced that creating positions over a long period of time s the way forward to making successful profits.

I hope that I can show you what I have done, and hopefully you can be critical, I can learn from you, and hopefully you can learn from me

I would like to show a screenshot what I have achieved so far. In the following screenshot, Please do not interpret this as any arrogance, but I have managed to build several positions from April 2021, a single GBPCHF, but that has cost me plenty on the swap, and plenty of positions that went to BE


However, I currently am holding about 3000pips on EURUSD, and you will see that I have been mostly successful on the EURUSD, and at one point I manged to have about 11 or 12 positions , of which I closed off 8 or 9 just before xmas. I started building my EURUSD position on 14th June 2021. I had no idea that position would still be alive today. I participated, and I took the trade, and did not move my stop to BE for a long while - with hindsight that was good, but for good practice, i should move stops to BE quicker

I also have several positions in other pairs.

I am not a big trader, as I am still finding my way. I am trading 0.01 sizes. I hope some of what I say will help, if not, then please forgive me.
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #122
  • Edited 5:28pm Jan 3, 2022 5:04pm | Edited 5:28pm
I seem to have several trading weaknesses, but am still using the millipede method

(1) the cost of building these initial positions has exceeded the profit I took. That is entirely my fault. When I started, I was too eager to build positions, many of these got stopped out.
(2) I initially was terrible at moving my stop to breakeven, but I have gotten much better at it as the year has progressed.
(3) I am not good at identifying when to take a profit. I appear to be too 'greedy' or too 'patient'. i seem to be getting out too soon, or too late. The only exception to this was the most recent EURUSD positions which I took profit on

I seem to be improving on (1) and (2) above - but I cannot find the financial optimal point to take profits at (3)
I have shown profits in terms of PIPS only, and i hpoe that you can see that I am sitting on about 3000 pips on the EURUSD, and I am content is letting these sit for a while as the monthly chart shows that the trend is down.

I've recently taken partial profits as the price appears to approaching an ascending trendline on the monthly chart (shown in a few posts below)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 234 KB

I am happy to participate in this thread as I think that as we discuss, then, we - as a collective - can improve and learn further from other millipede and position traders, and perhaps impart some nuggets of wisdom myself

I'm not too fussed about my entries, but I traditionally have used
(A) turning points on swings on mainly 4H, and occasionally 5m (but they usually get taken out)
(B) 4H engulfing bars - but usually the stop is a little too far for my comfort
(C) IB on 4H only
(d) rejection of a TL after retrace

note: I have tried to trade a smaller SL when using entries (A) and (B) by going down to lower timeframes, but again, I am a little too impatient, and I need to work on that
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #123
  • Edited 5:31pm Jan 3, 2022 5:14pm | Edited 5:31pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 171 KB

This is just my monthly view on EURUSD. I see a downtrend started about 5-6 months ago, but the price is approaching a lower trendline. It was this reason that I took partial profits. But I shall continue to hold a short position after this weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 181 KB
Weekly - i would like to see a close below 1.1270 (below last weeks bull candle), but I am also avidly aware of the longer month ascending TL just below. It will be interesting to see what happens. (perhaps slice through the TL ? or perhaps a retrace and bounce off the TL?)
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #124
  • Edited 5:32pm Jan 3, 2022 5:16pm | Edited 5:32pm
Anyway, that was my view on only on the EUUSD - I would be very interested to hear from other fellow 'millipeders' - your success or struggles, and what you are upto and how you have entered and taken profits

many thanks for your time
Just for today, do not worry...
  • #125
  • Jan 3, 2022 11:03pm Jan 3, 2022 11:03pm
Quoting faxfxfx
{image} This is just my monthly view on EURUSD. I see a downtrend started about 5-6 months ago, but the price is approaching a lower trendline. It was this reason that I took partial profits. But I shall continue to hold a short position after this weekend {image}Weekly - i would like to see a close below 1.1270 (below last weeks bull candle), but I am also avidly aware of the longer month ascending TL just below. It will be interesting to see what happens. (perhaps slice through the TL ? or perhaps a retrace and bounce off the TL?)
December was a bad month for eur usd, ranging 250 pips only.
  • #126
  • Jan 3, 2022 11:06pm Jan 3, 2022 11:06pm
Quoting AdamO.
{quote} Drawdowns are not high using this method if you keep your positions low and do not overtrade. The biggest challenge is to see your huge profits to disappear. I have tried for years to optimise it but there is no a correct way of doing it. If you prefer taking smaller profits but more often, just do it. If you prefer huge profits from time to time, just do it. I prefer taking profits after around 200 pips per trade so I do not lose that much when market reverses. But it is just my personal preference. PipEasy preferred keeping the position...
There are many mystery what is the best condition to take profit.
One thing that i still cant achieve is high accuracy entry to get 80% BE , My accuracy is worst ,yet profit still come.
200 pips TP usually get around 1:5 to 1:10 risk reward.
  • #127
  • Jan 4, 2022 2:44am Jan 4, 2022 2:44am
Quoting krisch
{quote} You're absolutely right, I just have to get started and stop finding excuses. :-) I do wonder how you manage to stack positions. Can you maybe explain that a bit more? When relying on a signal to enter a trade, requires those perfect conditions. And that probably means there's maybe just 1-2 entries in a favorable trend (within that 1 TF). And if I understand it right, we want to have several positions to maximize the return.

It is quite simple, Krisch. You have many options and at the beginning of your journey I suggest you find something very easy to do. For example, you can add into the position at every candle that goes against your trend.

Let me give you better picture of this option so you get it right and it is easy for you to grab the concept and apply it. Let's use only higher TFs. Weekly to decide the trading levels and overall trend. Daily for entries (I really recommend using higher TFs at the beginning, this method makes it easy to overtrade and it is basically one of very few reasons why people do not make it work).

So let's say that you have opened a position on Monday and it is in some profit... 70 pips for example. Now you can consider adding into the position. But do not try hard to add. Let's say that on Tuesday markets go up another 90 pips. You do not add any position yet. On wednesday, the market goes down 50 pips. Boom, you are adding and locking the previous trade at BE or in profit. And you just follow this rule on as many pairs as possible. Try to apply it also on SP500 and Nasdaq, it works there greatly.

And do not forget, you'll experience bad periods. There is no magic approach that makes money all the time. I work with few great traders and no one is profitable all the time. But when they are, they make a lot. When they are not, they lose just a little. We are just anticipating the movement, market and time makes all the hard work.


Once you feel comfortable with this approach try something different that suits you better. No rush, you do not need to become the best trader. You've got plenty of time. Markets move much slower in real time than you see on chart backwards.
  • #128
  • Jan 4, 2022 2:50am Jan 4, 2022 2:50am
Quoting faxfxfx
Dear AdamO, thank you for creating this thread. I also have been trading millipede for about a year now. i must have read the millipede thread over about 4 times I wish Graham was around, and also wish the The Real Thing was here. I would like to thank them for helping me understand the simple fact that has taken me over 20 years to understand - which is to (a) participate in the market (b) be patient (c) add positions (d) go back to step 'a' I am convinced that creating positions over a long period of time s the way forward to making successful...
Thank you for your contribution to the thread, faxfxfx. Glad to see you made it work. I see your patience is much better than mine. Have a look also on SP500 and Nasdaq. The use to trend much better than FX pairs, but leverage is much lower usually.

Feel free to share your journey here. Other trades will definitely learn from you a lot. You made an amazing job.
  • #129
  • Jan 4, 2022 2:58am Jan 4, 2022 2:58am
Quoting faxfxfx
I seem to have several trading weaknesses, but am still using the millipede method (1) the cost of building these initial positions has exceeded the profit I took. That is entirely my fault. When I started, I was too eager to build positions, many of these got stopped out. (2) I initially was terrible at moving my stop to breakeven, but I have gotten much better at it as the year has progressed. (3) I am not good at identifying when to take a profit. I appear to be too 'greedy' or too 'patient'. i seem to be getting out too soon, or too late. The...

1. Overtrading - I feel your frustration. I've been fighting for years. What helps me is to check charts only once or twice a day and do not care that much. It is easily said but takes time to get there. You are definitely on the right path.

2. BE - I now prefer not to move to BE to fast. If you trade with trend, the position will almost always go in your direction. So on initial trade I dont place a SL. I check the position in about a day and if it is in the profit of about 70-100 pip I move it to BE. If I changed my opinion about the trend I just close it in loss. Once you close the big profit you'll have enough money to cover all losses on the way.

3. Taking profit - There is no optimum setup. If I make tens of percent I use to close it no matter what happens. For example, on Nasdaq it made me about 200% in 2-3 months. Why not to take it, take a rest and start building positions again?
  • #130
  • Jan 4, 2022 3:04am Jan 4, 2022 3:04am
Quoting indosupre
{quote} There are many mystery what is the best condition to take profit. One thing that i still cant achieve is high accuracy entry to get 80% BE , My accuracy is worst ,yet profit still come. 200 pips TP usually get around 1:5 to 1:10 risk reward.

You do not need to go for 80% accuracy. 200 pips can give you much better RRR because you usually take lets say 3-10 trades on that particular pair and you close lets say 10*200 pips, which makes you 2000 pips. And your risk was lets say 50 pips on initial trade. Since you have moved your first position to BE you have not risked more than another 50 pips on second position and so on. So you can easily make 2000 pips risking 50 pips. That's the beauty of this method. When you are right, you make enough money to cover many trades when you are not right.
  • #131
  • Jan 6, 2022 1:17pm Jan 6, 2022 1:17pm
I have these positions. Magenta horizontal lines are targets


AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly.png Size: 83 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 91 KB
EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly.png Size: 104 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily.png Size: 81 KB
USDJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly.png Size: 78 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily.png Size: 75 KB


Please correct me were i am right or wrong. THX
MTN
  • #132
  • Jan 24, 2022 11:12pm Jan 24, 2022 11:12pm
Looking forward to following your thread on here. I also trade this way. Ive read Graeme's thread probably about 4 times now.
  • #133
  • Feb 7, 2022 1:55am Feb 7, 2022 1:55am
I do not plan to keep it alive as there is all information you need in Building equity millipede. I am here for you if you need some guidance. It is in your hands now.
  • #134
  • Feb 8, 2022 3:05am Feb 8, 2022 3:05am
Quoting LoveRisk
Looking forward to following your thread on here. I also trade this way. Ive read Graeme's thread probably about 4 times now.
How long have you been trading it?
  • #135
  • Feb 9, 2022 2:44am Feb 9, 2022 2:44am
I opened a demo account where I can show you trades. I decided to trade only SP500 on that account so you see how trading is an activity of waiting. Im posting more often to telegram group where you are also welcome. I use FF only on PC so not that often.

There is a first position opened and already locked at BE.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #136
  • Feb 9, 2022 2:55am Feb 9, 2022 2:55am
Next to my name, there appeared a yellow mark telling I am a low impact member. Is it a good or bad sign?
  • #137
  • Feb 9, 2022 8:15am Feb 9, 2022 8:15am
I wanted to share an idea. Actually something I like to do. Trailing SL behind H4 candles...

That way you do not have to have a dilemma about TP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #138
  • Feb 9, 2022 8:39am Feb 9, 2022 8:39am
The plan is to move SL at level of the red line when candle closes higher.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: photo_2022-02-09 15.38.54.jpeg Size: 85 KB
  • #139
  • Feb 9, 2022 12:33pm Feb 9, 2022 12:33pm
Quoting AdamO.
The plan is to move SL at level of the red line when candle closes higher. {image}
How about the entry? What triggered it? The long wicks hinting a support?
  • #140
  • Feb 9, 2022 3:36pm Feb 9, 2022 3:36pm
Quoting lorecavoli
{quote} How about the entry? What triggered it? The long wicks hinting a support?
As I mentioned earlier, the entry is not very important. You could just follow a simple rule stated at the beginning of the thread and catch it a candle later. My entry was based on a subjective feeling.

The entry signal does not make a big difference in long-term. Being in the market when it moves does...
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