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Setups are bunk?

  • #81
  • Jan 5, 2022 1:36am Jan 5, 2022 1:36am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} I do use indicators in my EA, two moving averages to be exact.
Very fresh and revolutionary idea
you have a huge advantage, because no one else thought of using two MA at once! Let me ask you a question? Are they exponential? I will not believe if they are simple. Or may be one is exponential and second is line weighted! Wow, wow, please stop me or I will accidentally tell all the secrets
Observer effect
  • #82
  • Jan 5, 2022 1:52am Jan 5, 2022 1:52am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Very fresh and revolutionary idea you have a huge advantage, because no one else thought of using two MA at once! Let me ask you a question? Are they exponential? I will not believe if they are simple. Or may be one is exponential and second is line weighted! Wow, wow, please stop me or I will accidentally tell all the secrets
Sorry but it's a secret whether I use Simple or Exponential. But I will say, it's one of these two.
  • #83
  • Jan 5, 2022 2:12am Jan 5, 2022 2:12am
Quoting MatDerKater
Setups are bunk and trading the markets profitably basically boils down to simply knowing when it is time to buy, and when it is time to sell, or is it just the case that the market is there to teach us bad habits? Just sat watching this come right down to my buy entry, then sit and watch it take off towards my target, like a fucking plum, cos I never got no 'setup signals'. {image} I have lost count of how many times this has happened, and I don't keep track of missed trades. I do however log losing trades, and have plenty of examples where I took...
I thought your set up was pretty good.
you had support and resistance correct and very strong signal.
you had your RSI at oversold level.
yes you did not have clear divergence etc., but
with price action at strong support it is a area of interest and with a candle showing Bullish pin bar.
its a perfect set up to have a stop loss below the support levels and execute the trade.

Just my thought as for me the use of indicators is to find the area of interest and wait for price to visit this place and look for good reversal or continuing pattern.
  • #84
  • Jan 5, 2022 2:13am Jan 5, 2022 2:13am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Very fresh and revolutionary idea you have a huge advantage, because no one else thought of using two MA at once! Let me ask you a question? Are they exponential? I will not believe if they are simple. Or may be one is exponential and second is line weighted! Wow, wow, please stop me or I will accidentally tell all the secrets
But let's just try to get something right, you have no room to troll me if you aren't doing the same or better than me. From what I see, your TE isn't showing anything so that means you should shut yer.
  • #85
  • Jan 5, 2022 4:53am Jan 5, 2022 4:53am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} But let's just try to get something right, you have no room to troll me if you aren't doing the same or better than me. From what I see, your TE isn't showing anything so that means you should shut yer.
What is the purpose to show my TE to the world? What for? Give me one reason
Observer effect
  • #86
  • Jan 5, 2022 4:58am Jan 5, 2022 4:58am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} What is the purpose to show my TE to the world? What for? Give me one reason
Okay, but do realize it makes you look laughable when you're trying to troll someone else who is showing their TE.
  • #87
  • Jan 5, 2022 6:34am Jan 5, 2022 6:34am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Whilst there are a lot of total charlatans out there, no doubt.... ....I think the issue largely stems from good intentions combined with intellectual dishonesty. A trader may well have had periods of success that make him feel qualified to become an educator. But perhaps only during periods when the market happened to be rewarding his 'setup', without punishing their lack of and/or clunky understanding of how the markets move. Or perhaps the trader is very successful, but only utilising one very specific strategy, say value trading penny...
Yes to all that, apart from the last statement which is its own prison. I could point - but I won't - to a whole pile of traders who've had that chart time and still know next to fuck all. the two aren't directly correlated.

If you do what everyone else is doing, you'll get what everyone else is getting. Given the attrition rates in retail (and let's not start the debate about actual numbers, but to say very very very few do anything other than blow their accounts), the best default position is to assume noone knows a single thing about what drives the market, even less about money management but allow your intuition follow anyone you suspect of thinking differently.

It's why I think education is so important. It 100% won't make you profitable to know how the market is structured, how risk is handled, how assets are correlated etc but it will give you a firm footing to know what the average professional trader is doing (to differing levels of sophistication) and guide you to what's worth investigating and what's not, and importantly what's missing. Rather than clinging on to blind faith or the say so of strangers, like me
  • #88
  • Jan 5, 2022 6:54am Jan 5, 2022 6:54am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} What is the purpose to show my TE to the world? What for? Give me one reason
Plenty here do.

Plenty here are posting good trades, in advance, with their thinking visible, and often described. What for?

Or why not?

Ya think if everyone gets to see your 'secret sauce' that the game is up? Doesn't work like that.

Quoting triphop
It's why I think education is so important. It 100% won't make you profitable to know how the market is structured, how risk is handled, how assets are correlated etc but it will give you a firm footing to know what the average professional trader is doing (to differing levels of sophistication) and guide you to what's worth investigating and what's not, and importantly what's missing. Rather than clinging on to blind faith or the say so of strangers, like me
Well there is that.

But lets just say there is a fine line between knowing all the standard school-boy retail traders errors, and having completely bought all the red herrings, and having such errors etched into your trading mindset.....still. regret and anguish gets you nowhere in this game.
  • #89
  • Jan 5, 2022 1:37pm Jan 5, 2022 1:37pm
Quoting MatDerKater
Plenty here do. Plenty here are posting good trades, in advance, with their thinking visible, and often described. What for? Or why not? Ya think if everyone gets to see your 'secret sauce' that the game is up?
Why it is bad to hide the secret sauce? I have researched and tested for years. Spent a lot of time and money. And then came to the forum and let everyone work out the formulas? This way? So will anyone do if he's out of his mind?
By the other hand share the sauce with who? With guys who can't understand the difference between RSI and MA for 10+ years of "trading"?
99.99% here don't want to learn and don't want even to invest their time. All they want is to find some magic "setup", reliable signals or free profitable EA. All for free of course.

Quoting MatDerKater
Doesn't work like that.


If someone want to discuss real things, not "feelings", magic and other forex fairy tales I'm always ready to go. Or we can proceed discussing billions and trillions of liquidity on forex and how indicators lag.
Observer effect
  • #90
  • Edited 2:52pm Jan 5, 2022 2:35pm | Edited 2:52pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Why it is bad to hide the secret sauce? I have researched and tested for years. Spent a lot of time and money. And then came to the forum and let everyone work out the formulas? This way? So will anyone do if he's out of his mind? By the other hand share the sauce with who? With guys who can't understand the difference between RSI and MA for 10+ years of "trading"? 99.99% here don't want to learn and don't want even to invest their time. All they want is to find some magic "setup", reliable signals or free profitable EA. All for free of...
'Formulae'?

Perhaps your secret formulae that you have researched and tested for years works a treat. But it surely isn't necessary. There are some great traders here who aint using no magic formulae. I myself have posted a handful of winning trades, posted here before or as I was taking them and I certainly amn't using any 'formulae'. If anyone wants me to explain my thinking, I will do and if someone finds that helpful then great, but do you think I could show a novice a few trades I took, tell him why I took them and what I was looking out for, and that he could then go to the markets and replicate what I do? No chance. It's like a competent golf player taking a complete beginner, showing him how to swing the club and where to aim the ball; and then expecting the novice golfer to be a match for the experienced golfer. No way! Aint happening.

If on the other hand, you are referring to some Black Box system that you have developed....then that is different. Too many people start using those sorts of things, then they won't work (and to get too many people, you would need to write a top selling book on it)....and the problem with these things, is that over the duration, they will stop working off their own accord anyhow. The nature of the market is always changing. The only thing that always stays the same, is the right place to buy, and the right place to sell, and this cannot be defined by any simple algorithmic approach that absolutely anyone can use. Takes a lot of experience and development of traders intuition......and I wouldn't write off actual intuition either, but just a bit of a bugger for most people to reliably access that.

I really don't understand how you have trouble getting your head around that the global currency exchange markets, as processed mostly by just a few large banks and ultimately involved in all international transactions involving two different currencies, from Chinese E-Bay sellers, to multi-national corporations to national governments, might just be easily the largest market in the entire world?

If it makes you feel better, I do concur that most retail brokers are essentially bucket shops, with only a small handful of their clients bets being reflected in the real actual currency exchange market, and therefore, unlike the Euro or US futures exchanges, most retail forex traders are not directly involved in a real market. They aint really part of the action. Not like the real men on the futures exchanges.....Forex traders be just like kids taking side bets.
  • #91
  • Jan 5, 2022 3:44pm Jan 5, 2022 3:44pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} If someone want to discuss real things, not "feelings", magic and other forex fairy tales I'm always ready to go. Or we can proceed discussing billions and trillions of liquidity on forex and how indicators lag.
https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.htm

Do your research on forex trading volume, the above is the BIS report 2019. They report every 3 years, so next one will be at the end of this year.

Or are you goin to tell me all the banks, instituions & brokers are liars ?

Snippets as you are too lazy to read:

1. BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey
The BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey (https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19.htm) is the most comprehensive source of information on the size and structure of global foreign exchange (FX) and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets. The Triennial Survey aims to increase the transparency of OTC markets and to help central banks, other authorities and market participants monitor developments in global financial markets. It also helps to inform discussions on reforms to OTC markets.

Highlights
Highlights from the 2019 Triennial Survey of turnover in OTC FX markets:

  1. Trading in FX markets reached $6.6 trillion (https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries/TRIENNIAL/A.U.A.B.5J.A.5J.A.TO1.TO1.A.A.3.C?t=d11.1&c=&p=2019&i=1.1) per day in April 2019, up from $5.1 trillion three years earlier.1 (https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.htm#_ftn1) Growth of FX derivatives trading, especially in FX swaps, outpaced that of spot trading.
  2. The US dollar retained its dominant currency status, being on one side of 88% (https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/table/d11.3) of all trades. The share of trades with the euro on one side expanded somewhat, to 32%. By contrast, the share of trades involving the Japanese yen fell some 5 percentage points, although the yen remained the third most actively traded currency (on one side of 17% of all trades).
  3. As in previous surveys, currencies of emerging market economies (EMEs) again gained market share, reaching 25% of overall global turnover. Turnover in the renminbi, however, grew only slightly faster than the aggregate market, and the renminbi did not climb further in the global rankings. It remained the eighth most traded currency, with a share of 4.3%, ranking just after the Swiss franc.
  4. While the volume of spot trades increased relative to April 2016, the expansion was less strong compared with other instruments - hence the share of spot trades continued to fall, to 30% in 2019, compared with 33% in 2016. By contrast, FX swaps continued to gain in market share, accounting for 49% of total FX market turnover in April 2019. Trading of outright forwards also picked up, with a large part of the rise due to the segment of non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
  5. FX trading with "other financial institutions", ie those other than reporting dealers, again exceeded inter-dealer trading volumes, reaching $3.6 trillion (https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries/TRIENNIAL/A.U.A.B.5J.C.5J.A.TO1.TO1.A.A.3.C?t=d11.1&c=&p=2019&i=17.1) in April 2019, or 55% of global turnover. This was due to a higher share of trading with non-reporting banks as well as with hedge funds and proprietary trading firms (PTFs), while trading with institutional investors declined.
  6. In April 2019, sales desks in five countries - the United Kingdom, the United States, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore and Japan - facilitated 79% of all foreign exchange trading. Trading activity in the United Kingdom and Hong Kong SAR grew by more than the global average. Mainland China also recorded a significant rise in trading activity, making it the eighth largest FX trading centre (up from 13th in April 2016).

Turnover by instrument and maturity
Turnover in FX spot markets rose in the 2019 survey, but declined as a share in global FX activity. At $2.0 trillion (https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries/TRIENNIAL/A.U.B.B.5J.A.5J.A.TO1.TO1.A.A.3.C?t=d11.1&c=&p=2019&i=1.2) per day, the volume of spot trades in April 2019 was some 20% greater than in April 2016, but still below the level recorded in the April 2013 Triennial Survey (Table 1 (https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.pdf#page=11)). Spot turnover accounted for 30% of global turnover in April 2019, down from 33% in 2016 and 38% in 2013 (Graph 2 (https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.htm#graph2)).
By contrast, trading in FX swaps and outright forwards gained in market share. Turnover in FX swaps, the most heavily traded instrument, which is primarily used by market participants for the management of funding liquidity and hedging of currency risk, rose by more than a third to $3.2 trillion (https://stats.bis.org/statx/srs/tseries/TRIENNIAL/A.U.H.B.5J.A.5J.A.TO1.TO1.A.A.3.C?t=d11.1&c=&p=2019&i=1.4) per day and accounted for almost half of global FX trading. The US dollar was on one side of 91% of all FX swap transactions (ie somewhat higher than its share across all instruments), while the euro was on one side of more than a third of FX swap transactions. The bulk of turnover in FX swaps was in short-maturity instruments (overnight up to seven days) in April 2019, although trading in longer tenors expanded over the past three years (Table 4 (https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.pdf#page=14)).

So what do you say is the daily trading volume of the Forex market. if the above is fairy tales ?
Answer please with proof of your findings.

It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #92
  • Jan 5, 2022 6:52pm Jan 5, 2022 6:52pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} 'Formulae'? Perhaps your secret formulae that you have researched and tested for years works a treat. But it surely isn't necessary. There are some great traders here who aint using no magic formulae. I myself have posted a handful of winning trades, posted here before or as I was taking them and I certainly amn't using any 'formulae'. If anyone wants me to explain my thinking, I will do and if someone finds that helpful then great, but do you think I could show a novice a few trades I took, tell him why I took them and what I was looking...
“any simple algorithmic approach that absolutely anyone can use. Takes a lot of experience and development of traders intuition......”

Your description is spot on. That is the formulae for algo and systematic traders that most do not want to share or teach.

And I believe a persistent algo should factor in analysis of high probability locations to trade. It can be the algo would only execute trades at recent highs/lows, ADR, or detect trend exhaustion like regressions, divergences. At least it is what I would consider.
  • #93
  • Jan 6, 2022 1:55am Jan 6, 2022 1:55am
Quoting MatDerKater
I myself have posted a handful of winning trades, posted here before or as I was taking them and I certainly amn't using any 'formulae'.
I'm making 50+ winning trades daily. I can post them for sure here, but what for? I'm trading every day live with RickM and we post out trades in my discord group to discuss them. But we have about the same trading approach. So we have some to discuss.

Quoting MatDerKater
The only thing that always stays the same, is the right place to buy, and the right place to sell, and this cannot be defined by any simple algorithmic approach that absolutely anyone can use. Takes a lot of experience and development of traders intuition......
Your trading approach seems to be simple magical thinking. Magical thinking is the belief that one's thoughts by themselves can bring about effects in the world or that thinking something corresponds with doing it. So what you want to discuss? How you took the trade because the universe said you to do it?

Quoting Shabs19
Or are you goin to tell me all the banks, instituions & brokers are liars ?
Never said that! They are crystal clear and may be even the Saints.

Quoting Shabs19
So what do you say is the daily trading volume of the Forex market. if the above is fairy tales ?
Answer please with proof of your findings.
There are no trading volume on forex. The proof is that there are no such a data available for trader. And that all the candles all over the world at any found bucket shop broker are the same.
Observer effect
  • #94
  • Jan 6, 2022 4:19am Jan 6, 2022 4:19am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I'm making 50+ winning trades daily. I can post them for sure here, but what for? I'm trading every day live with RickM and we post out trades in my discord group to discuss them. But we have about the same trading approach. So we have some to discuss. {quote} Your trading approach seems to be simple magical thinking. Magical thinking is the belief that one's thoughts by themselves can bring about effects in the world or that thinking something corresponds with doing it. So what you want to discuss? How you took the trade because the universe...
50+ winning trades per day (and probably the same amount of losers) seems like quite a lot. More like an algo than a human trader, but if that works well for you then who is to argue?

'Simple magical thinking? Really?

The last few trades I posted here (not all the trades I made, just the ones I posted here):

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4116088&d=1641386381 - winner

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4113030&d=1640962918 - winner

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4107983&d=1640099397 - missed entry

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4104775&d=1639666413 - winner

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4103711&d=1639583370 - winner

https://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4103546&d=1639574625 - loser

And that is the lot for this place in the short time I have been active here.

and fwiw, I am a great believer in the power of intuition. That isn't the same as 'trader intuition', which is having a feel for how the market behaves, based on thousands of hours of screen time; and it isn't the same thing as 'gut instinct', which is interested both in accumulation, but far more concerned with self preservation. You should be more open minded. In this world, many things that seem to be in constant ebb and flow, have already been decided (especially so in the markets) and behind every lie and deception, is someone who knows the truth. Intuition is the silent stream of consciousness that goes beneath the all the noise, trickery, and deception.

and fwiw, none of the above trades were based on 'true intuition', except perhaps when one was held overnight, I would wake up knowing whether it was (destined to be) a winner or a loser. They all based on a combination of 'market intuition' and simple technical smarts.

You should be more open minded. That, and chill the fuck out. Who gives a fuck how many trillions worth the Forex market it is. Whatever the true number is, it can absorb the entire net worth of this entire forum, without barely registering a blip, as indeed could the US futures market, with it's 'real genuine volume data', for real genuine man traders to trade.
  • #95
  • Jan 6, 2022 7:37am Jan 6, 2022 7:37am
[quote=ryuryu;13847602]{quote} I'm making 50+ winning trades daily. I can post them for sure here, but what for? {quote}
You know for what for, you are just full of shit.
You guys are here everyday, so what's the problem.
You could do it but what? Don't have time? Don't have patience?
Do you know how stupid you look when you engage in all type of trading discussion, and have hundreds or thousands of posts, and when it comes to the only important thing in trading that is consistency your attitude is like i could do it, but what for?
Are you fucking serious, at least say i don't want to do it.
Most long time members here just want to discuss shit and they run away as fast as they can when the conversation starts to go to something that actually matters. We know why , you don't need to explain yourself, save yourself from the embarrassment.
  • #96
  • Jan 6, 2022 8:45am Jan 6, 2022 8:45am
Quoting MatDerKater
'Simple magical thinking? Really?
Quoting MatDerKater
I am a great believer in the power of intuition. That isn't the same as 'trader intuition', which is having a feel for how the market behaves
Quoting MatDerKater
above trades were based on 'true intuition'


[quote=STrading;13848077]
Quoting ryuryu
Most long time members here just want to discuss shit and they run away as fast as they can when the conversation starts to go to something that actually matters.
Okay let's discuss actual things. But all you can is to cry that RSI is not very good to predict the trend, or discuss the billions and trillions on forex market every second or post bullshit about magic lines and your unique feelings that help you to trade extremely successful. Ah I forgot "indicators lag" discussion. Very interesting too.

Where are any calculations? Any formulas? Any new idea/vision/approach? Only blah-blah-blah. The same bs every day. "New revolutionary idea: 2 moving average!" Or "if 2 candles are green next will be green too". Ingenious. Never said before. So fresh! Fabulous! We should discuss that for sure.
Observer effect
  • #97
  • Jan 6, 2022 9:08am Jan 6, 2022 9:08am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} {quote}
Quoting STrading
{quote} Okay let's discuss actual things. But all you can is to cry that RSI is not very good to predict the trend, or discuss the billions and trillions on forex market every second or post bullshit about magic lines and your unique feelings that help you to trade extremely successful. Ah I forgot "indicators lag" discussion. Very interesting too. Where are any calculations? Any formulas? Any new idea/vision/approach? Only blah-blah-blah. The same bs every day. "New revolutionary
...
Are you having a seizure? You can't come up with "fresh" ideas yourself?
  • #98
  • Jan 6, 2022 9:20am Jan 6, 2022 9:20am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} {quote}
Quoting STrading
{quote} Okay let's discuss actual things. But all you can is to cry that RSI is not very good to predict the trend, or discuss the billions and trillions on forex market every second or post bullshit about magic lines and your unique feelings that help you to trade extremely successful. Ah I forgot "indicators lag" discussion. Very interesting too. Where are any calculations? Any formulas? Any new idea/vision/approach? Only blah-blah-blah. The same bs every day. "New revolutionary
...
OK, lets bring this to a conclusion.

You are not that bright, and you are an asshole.....

.....and the trading probably isn't going so well for you, otherwise you wouldn't be here all agitated and venting your spleen.

By all means, prove me wrong, and post just a handful of trades before or as they are being taken, and lets see how your hit rate stacks up.

Put up, or shut up.
  • #99
  • Jan 6, 2022 9:48am Jan 6, 2022 9:48am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote}{quote} By all means, prove me wrong, and post just a handful of trades before or as they are being taken, and lets see how your hit rate stacks up.
With full respect ...
Have you ever scalped M1?
  • #100
  • Jan 6, 2022 10:09am Jan 6, 2022 10:09am
Quoting BlackNapkins
{quote} With full respect ... Have you ever scalped M1?
It's not what I do, no.

Although I am down to pretty low time frame trading on US30 right now as a 'revenge trade' (which I can justify by halving position size), and no, I wouldn't be inclined to post that trade.......reason I took it, is because I get stopped out in US equities by 1 or two ticks, a lot (as I speak, my SL order is literally the low of the day in US30....cunts!), and I don't want to be kicking myself when this p.o.s. ends the day way back up the charts).

Undisciplined.
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