Setups are bunk? | Forex Factory

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Setups are bunk?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:38am Dec 31, 2021 5:22am | Edited 5:38am
Setups are bunk and trading the markets profitably basically boils down to simply knowing when it is time to buy, and when it is time to sell, or is it just the case that the market is there to teach us bad habits?

Just sat watching this come right down to my buy entry, then sit and watch it take off towards my target, like a fucking plum, cos I never got no 'setup signals'.

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I have lost count of how many times this has happened, and I don't keep track of missed trades. I do however log losing trades, and have plenty of examples where I took a trade based on 'setup signals', that fell flat on it's face, simply cos it wasn't time to buy or sell.

The more experience I get, the more I am starting to think that setups are bunk. All that matters is the trade location being spot on. If that coincides with some elaborate 'setup' then great, but most of the time it won't and waiting on the golden signals to transpire will just have you sitting on your hands, or worse than that, entering when you should be sitting out, simply because the 'golden signals' have popped up out of the charts.
  • #2
  • Dec 31, 2021 6:10am Dec 31, 2021 6:10am
You do know that indicators lag and not always reliable ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #3
  • Dec 31, 2021 6:26am Dec 31, 2021 6:26am
Quoting Shabs19
You do know that indicators lag and not always reliable ?
I was taught lots of nooby shit by a nooby dunce shit trader.....(I am entitled to be bitter, cos I paid him $$$'s for his shit courses)

.....took me long time to get out of the habit of always trying to fade trends based on indicator divergences......and sometimes I still can't resist.

I take solace from the fact that when I finally shake all these misconceptions out of my mental programming, I will at least be very well versed with the sort of n00b bullshit that every trader and their dog is doing in the markets, which is why every n00b trader and his dog, loses, whilst comforting themselves with trading educator cliches like 'trading is 80% psychology'.....(erm..no it fkn isn't).
  • #4
  • Dec 31, 2021 6:34am Dec 31, 2021 6:34am
At best indicators look great in hindsight.

You paid for an education that taught you something at least, even though it took you a while to realise it.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #5
  • Dec 31, 2021 6:42am Dec 31, 2021 6:42am
The only thing that is good here is by far the market profile.
you are on the right track.
Setup only exists in Formula 1
  • #6
  • Dec 31, 2021 6:50am Dec 31, 2021 6:50am
Quoting kette
The only thing that is good here is by far the market profile. you are on the right track. Setup only exists in Formula 1
No. See that Orange Box. That key level. That is the only thing that is good. Knowing why to place that there, and why it is a high probability price rejection zone, isn't so simple as it may seem.

Volume Profile, in such a simple form as TradingView allows, is also bunk. Real Order Flow traders have far more sophisticated tools than that, that allow them to see where traders are trapped, institutional order blocks, and shit like that....I can't say much about it, cos I never learned much about it....but the VP trading that I was taught, I know for fact is bunk....but perhaps your methods are more sophisticated?
  • #7
  • Dec 31, 2021 7:00am Dec 31, 2021 7:00am
a market profile is no matter what it looks like, the trade remains the same buy at the bottom sell at the top

these are future profiles
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  • #8
  • Dec 31, 2021 8:44am Dec 31, 2021 8:44am
Quoting kette
a market profile is no matter what it looks like, the trade remains the same buy at the bottom sell at the top these are future profiles {image}
Seen futures traders do it, some of them literally just scalping positions for a few ticks and then out and doing pretty fkn well by doing so, but I am in no doubt that the majority of orderflow traders are getting fucking rinsed just like the majority of other traders are.

Just not the way I have learned to trade, and I aint going to start now with it.....don't need to start on another 'setup' with several thousand hours worth of learning curve in front of it......it's not necessary.
  • #9
  • Dec 31, 2021 10:41am Dec 31, 2021 10:41am
All the information you require is on the price chart.
The only indicators that I have found useful are informational type. Eg. the daily, weekly, monthly highs & lows, market sessions opens & closes, and simple lines to mark key areas of interest. You dont need DOMs, MPs', or Volume , its not real anyway, so why complicate things ?

By adding all the extra noise on your chart leads to paralysis analysis.
Why do you need indicators to confirm, if you already have a plan in place ?

You dont need to Buy or Sell right at the turning point, who are you trying to impress ?
There are plenty of opportunities if you have patience.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #10
  • Dec 31, 2021 11:00am Dec 31, 2021 11:00am
Quoting Shabs19
All the information you require is on the price chart. The only indicators that I have found useful are informational type. Eg. the daily, weekly, monthly highs & lows, market sessions opens & closes, and simple lines to mark key areas of interest. You dont need DOMs, MPs', or Volume , its not real anyway, so why complicate things ? By adding all the extra noise on your chart leads to paralysis analysis. Why do you need indicators to confirm, if you already have a plan in place ? You dont need to Buy or Sell right at the turning point, who are...
Trading Forex or Futures isn't like buying 7 shares of Amazon or HODLing Bitcoin and seeing where things stand 18 months down the line.

We are using high margin, and placing arbitrary lines on a chart, with our entries, TPs and SL. Generally, most retail traders are aiming for 2:1 or better....in an environment where algo's and market makers are constantly moulding price action to get their fills through the means of trapping traders and running out their SLs. If left to random chance, trading isn't like flipping a coin, it is like rolling a dice, where only a 6 will do. Anything else comes out, and you lose.

Under these conditions, damn right you better have a pretty fkn good idea where the market is going to turn, back in your trade direction otherwise the high probability is that you will be stopped out.

There is a reason why 90% of all retail traders lose money.
  • #11
  • Dec 31, 2021 11:26am Dec 31, 2021 11:26am
Not sure where this thread is going, is it that all your set-ups are not working ie. stops getting hit all the time ?

You feel you are simply gambling ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #12
  • Dec 31, 2021 11:34am Dec 31, 2021 11:34am
Quoting Shabs19
Not sure where this thread is going, is it that all your set-ups are not working ie. stops getting hit all the time ? You feel you are simply gambling ?
I am realising that about 80% of the utter shite I have filled my head with (or paid to have my head filled with)...is baggage.

Worse than baggage.

Baggage that not only hinders you, but bites you.

btw, I am profitable (check the odd trades I have posted in here).....but I should be much more profitable.
  • #13
  • Dec 31, 2021 11:48am Dec 31, 2021 11:48am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} I am realising that about 80% of the utter shite I have filled my head with (or paid to have my head filled with)...is baggage. Worse than baggage. Baggage that not only hinders you, but bites you. btw, I am profitable (check the odd trades I have posted in here).....but I should be much more profitable.
Unfortunately the world of trading is full of BS. You seem to have found your feet back.

Put all your baggage in the past & treat is as an experience or lesson learnt. Whatever it cost.
You cant change the past, only the future.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #14
  • Jan 1, 2022 5:34am Jan 1, 2022 5:34am
Quoting Shabs19
The only indicators that I have found useful are informational type. Eg. the daily, weekly, monthly highs & lows, market sessions opens & closes, and simple lines to mark key areas of interest.
Quoting Shabs19
You dont need DOMs, MPs', or Volume , its not real anyway
Haha, you don't need volume it's not real. But simple lines are real key areas. Haha perfect!
Observer effect
  • #15
  • Jan 1, 2022 5:39am Jan 1, 2022 5:39am
I'm with matderkarter on the baggage thing.

Very interested in what the thread starter has to say.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #16
  • Jan 1, 2022 6:04am Jan 1, 2022 6:04am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} {quote} Haha, you don't need volume it's not real. But simple lines are real key areas. Haha perfect!
It's previous lack of volume at certain levels which are the cause of these 'simple lines and key areas'.

....and the volume isn't real...not if you are trading Forex. 'They' don't release volume data. I do find however, that feeds from certain brokerages such as FXCM do a decent job of representing the volume data...at least when compared to the US Futures volume for the same asset.

...but for proper order low based trading, Forex traders can't really do it.
  • #17
  • Jan 1, 2022 6:20am Jan 1, 2022 6:20am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} It's previous lack of volume at certain levels which are the cause of these 'simple lines and key areas'. ....and the volume isn't real...not if you are trading Forex. 'They' don't release volume data. I do find however, that feeds from certain brokerages such as FXCM do a decent job of representing the volume data...at least when compared to the US Futures volume for the same asset. ...but for proper order low based trading, Forex traders can't really do it.
I'm using CME volume data to trade. You are absolutely right that tick data volume is "very strange". Let's call it that way haha
It is just unusable flow or random data.
As for me trading with no volume data using only the indicators is not so good, because "setups" exist only in the past, but you can easy reverse every setup with your 0.01 lot trade. And it will be another setup, not the one you thought about.

Happy New Year!
Observer effect
  • #18
  • Jan 1, 2022 7:17am Jan 1, 2022 7:17am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote}As for me trading with no volume data using only the indicators is not so good, because "setups" exist only in the past, but you can easy reverse every setup with your 0.01 lot trade. And it will be another setup, not the one you thought about.
All chart data is historical. All set-ups have to be from past data if you are trading using charts.

Real volume data is expensive and interpreting is another whole new ball game.

You need to have more of an understanding of market participant behaviour than technical indicators telling you to Buy / Sell.

You are the Predator or the Meal.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #19
  • Jan 1, 2022 7:46am Jan 1, 2022 7:46am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} All chart data is historical. All set-ups have to be from past data if you are trading using charts. Real volume data is expensive and interpreting is another whole new ball game. You need to have more of an understanding of market participant behaviour than technical indicators telling you to Buy / Sell. You are the Predator or the Meal.
What you mean expensive? Trading is business. You need to have custom indicators, calculations, bots, fast server/PC, and the data. It is just your costs.
I know that people dream to trade 5 min/day after main job, not investing anything but drawing random lines and earn much. But it doesn't work that way. Statistics don't lie: >90% retails traders lose all their money. And they lose it because they believe in fairy tales and ignore obvious things.
Observer effect
  • #20
  • Jan 1, 2022 8:25am Jan 1, 2022 8:25am
What you mean expensive?

What level of data is required, delayed or Real ?
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Trading is business. I absolutely agree.

You need to have custom indicators, calculations, bots, fast server/PC, and the data. It is just your costs.

No you don't, this is all the garbage that the OP is talking about here. Once you believe all this you are hooked.

I know that people dream to trade 5 min/day after main job, not investing anything but drawing random lines and earn much. But it doesn't work that way. Statistics don't lie: >90% retails traders lose all their money. And they lose it because they believe in fairy tales and ignore obvious things.

Who sells these dreams ? The marketeers & scam merchants that occupy the retail space.
It never gets easier, you just get better
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