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Setups are bunk?

  • #61
  • Jan 3, 2022 3:57pm Jan 3, 2022 3:57pm
Quoting MatDerKater
Setups are bunk and trading the markets profitably basically boils down to simply knowing when it is time to buy, and when it is time to sell, or is it just the case that the market is there to teach us bad habits? Just sat watching this come right down to my buy entry, then sit and watch it take off towards my target, like a fucking plum, cos I never got no 'setup signals'. {image} I have lost count of how many times this has happened, and I don't keep track of missed trades. I do however log losing trades, and have plenty of examples where I took...
your chart is the reason i hate candle time based charts anymore.

that and you have more than 3 indicators that arent being used for what they should be used for

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/3528185#post3528185
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/3623491#post3623491
  • #62
  • Jan 3, 2022 4:19pm Jan 3, 2022 4:19pm
Quoting hazelj80
{quote} your chart is the reason i hate candle time based charts anymore. that and you have more than 3 indicators that arent being used for what they should be used for https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/3528185#post3528185 https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/post/3623491#post3623491
How do you know what I am using these indicators for?

Do you think I actually trade indicator crossovers? (going by the links you provided)

There are no indicator signals firing on my chart when the trade *should* have been taken. There are no price signals either (unless you count 1 single up candle on the 1 minute chart) yet I very clearly *should* have taken the trade.

All that matters is trade location. Get that right, you probably win, get that wrong and you almost certainly lose. Everything else is just coincidental, not consequential. The market doesn't go up because of the inverted head and shoulders pattern or the MACD crossover. It goes up, because it is time for it to go up....the magic isn't in all the pretty shapes that traders look out for or the indicator signals they have lined up on their charts...if anything, these are just traps that the market makers and algo's know that traders will reliably fall for, time and time again.
  • #63
  • Edited Jan 4, 2022 1:15pm Jan 3, 2022 10:07pm | Edited Jan 4, 2022 1:15pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} How do you know what I am using these indicators for? Do you think I actually trade indicator crossovers? (going by the links you provided) There are no indicator signals firing on my chart when the trade *should* have been taken. There are no price signals either (unless you count 1 single up candle on the 1 minute chart) yet I very clearly *should* have taken the trade. All that matters is trade location. Get that right, you probably win, get that wrong and you almost certainly lose. Everything else is just coincidental, not consequential....
nothing in those post said thats what the indicators do but i dont use any of what you have i have less than that on my chart because i trade momentum setups in the busiest part of the market. i dont not use limit order and i dont use S/R or any of that stuff you mentioned....a least not in that fashion. Even using them for trend line breaks...

But I can tell you that indicator lag is worse on time based candle charts which is why I don't like them personally
  • #64
  • Edited 3:34am Jan 4, 2022 3:21am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting Shabs19
Some more FX Trading info from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS): https://www.compareforexbrokers.com/forex-trading/statistics/ {image} {image}

Let's count lies on your screenshot

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There are 2 lies here.

1. It is impossible to count the market volume using 4 days of the year, where 3 were holidays and #4 just started.
2. Forex market works 24/5, not 24/7

So you ask me to believe in that bs?

If there are two lies in four paragraphs so why and how the world the other text/numbers are correct?
I think all that proud words about billions and trillions per second is lie too.
There are no billions and no trillions. There are 2,5 retired demo traders and another 1,5 with 100$ accounts.

Retail forex is dead. MQL with their mt4/5 demo accounts killed it. It is impossible to win on demo and there are no traders who go live. So let them read their forex fairy tales about volumes and liquidity themselves.
Observer effect
  • #65
  • Jan 4, 2022 4:52am Jan 4, 2022 4:52am
"A dark pool is a privately organized financial forum or exchange for trading securities. Dark pools allow institutional investors to trade without exposure until after the trade has been executed and reported. Dark pools are a type of alternative trading system (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alternative-trading-system.asp) (ATS) that give certain investors the opportunity to place large orders and make trades without publicly revealing their intentions during the search for a buyer or seller."
Here we have those trillions of dolars
  • #66
  • Jan 4, 2022 5:10am Jan 4, 2022 5:10am
Quoting MatDerKater
Setups are bunk and trading the markets profitably basically boils down to simply knowing when it is time to buy, and when it is time to sell, or is it just the case that the market is there to teach us bad habits? Just sat watching this come right down to my buy entry, then sit and watch it take off towards my target, like a fucking plum, cos I never got no 'setup signals'. {image} I have lost count of how many times this has happened, and I don't keep track of missed trades. I do however log losing trades, and have plenty of examples where I took...
But isn't knowing when it's time to buy and when it's time to sell the same as a "setup?" What is a bunk are labels. Just find something that works. The thing that works can be framed to have come from any kind of "setup." Almost all setups would fit the thing that works. I could show you a single profitable trade and make it fit a Gann setup, an Elliott wave setup, and pretty much any kind of nonsense setup you want to make it fit.
  • #67
  • Edited 5:47am Jan 4, 2022 5:28am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} But isn't knowing when it's time to buy and when it's time to sell the same as a "setup?" What is a bunk are labels. Just find something that works. The thing that works can be framed to have come from any kind of "setup." Almost all setups would fit the thing that works. I could show you a single profitable trade and make it fit a Gann setup, an Elliott wave setup, and pretty much any kind of nonsense setup you want to make it fit.
Of course.

I should rephrase.

Most of what is taught as being a setup, and most of what I have been taught counts as a setup. Is bunk. Indicators. Fib ratios. Candle stick patterns from ascending triangles to harmonics, Indicator divergences etc, is all bunk.

Now, that is not to say, that there aren't plenty good trades, that incorporate all of the above factors, but the one thing all good trades will have in common, is that the trade location was right. And NONE of the above factors define a good trade location, but they very often pinpoint a bad trade location, and very often fail to verify or give a signal) at a good trade location.
  • #68
  • Jan 4, 2022 5:43am Jan 4, 2022 5:43am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Of course. I should rephrase. Most of what is taught as being a setup, and most of what I have been taught counts as a setup. Is bunk. Indicators. Fib ratios. Candle stick patterns from ascending triangles to harmonics, Indicator divergences etc, is bunk. Now, that is not to say, that there aren't plenty good trades, that incorporate all of the above factors, but the one thing all good trades will have in common, is that the trade location was right. And NONE of the above factors define a good trade location, but they very often pinpoint...
Oh yes, those types of setups using those indicators. Yes I personally agree with that. They've never worked for me. They don't give enough information or, the useful kind of information.
  • #69
  • Jan 4, 2022 5:58am Jan 4, 2022 5:58am
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Of course. I should rephrase. Most of what is taught as being a setup, and most of what I have been taught counts as a setup. Is bunk. Indicators. Fib ratios. Candle stick patterns from ascending triangles to harmonics, Indicator divergences etc, is all bunk.
A lot of money is made from selling courses from all this bunk. Also helps to mystify this business and guide traders to place their money at the wrong time & place and in the wrong direction. Many of the courses are created by the banks & brokers, often supplied Free of Charge to their clients.
Why would they teach you how to trade profitably ?
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #70
  • Jan 4, 2022 6:02am Jan 4, 2022 6:02am
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} A lot of money is made from selling courses from all this bunk. Also helps to mystify this business and guide traders to place their money at the wrong time & place and in the wrong direction. Many of the courses are created by the banks & brokers, often supplied Free of Charge to their clients. Why would they teach you how to trade profitably ?
Yes, because if they were to tell you how to trade the market profitability, it really would take less than 5 minutes. I could set a complete new person to forex to trade the same as I do, using my tools, in less than 5 minutes. But of course they need you to chase their system so they'll never reveal what you actually need to know.
  • #71
  • Jan 4, 2022 11:51am Jan 4, 2022 11:51am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} Yes, because if they were to tell you how to trade the market profitability, it really would take less than 5 minutes. I could set a complete new person to forex to trade the same as I do, using my tools, in less than 5 minutes. But of course they need you to chase their system so they'll never reveal what you actually need to know.
I agree with you the quality of courses can vary a lot. But I believe some courses are actually good.

There is a hearsay that if a Wallstreet trader write out his trading strategy on a board and show it to everyone walking by, eventually none would be able to trade as well as him.
I am very sure that even a car racer spend hours with me and teaching me every single steps and thoughts in car racing, I will never be that level. That is the nature of teaching and learning.

Many teach discretionary trading skills (ie Price Actions), the skill set is very difficult to be replicated by the students. On the flip side, if the course material is indeed bunked and there is no variability in learning efficiency, all students should perform equally bad afterwards, but it’s not true

As of indicator “setups”, my perspective is they are same as price level “setups”. Instead of bunked, they all just represent a possible time of trading with a probability of price going in desired direction. Using indicators is like looking at traffic lights along a road, you don’t bother to look at the lights in middle of nowhere, and not just look at the lights without checking other things (oncoming traffic in junctions, rear mirror, etc) before driving. Of course even with the perfect green light “setup” you can still crash. But that is just a high probability of safe driving. I always trade with indicator signals (and analysis), so far statistics tells me it can work.
  • #72
  • Edited 3:01pm Jan 4, 2022 2:02pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting Shabs19
{quote} A lot of money is made from selling courses from all this bunk. Also helps to mystify this business and guide traders to place their money at the wrong time & place and in the wrong direction. Many of the courses are created by the banks & brokers, often supplied Free of Charge to their clients. Why would they teach you how to trade profitably ?
Whilst there are a lot of total charlatans out there, no doubt....

....I think the issue largely stems from good intentions combined with intellectual dishonesty. A trader may well have had periods of success that make him feel qualified to become an educator. But perhaps only during periods when the market happened to be rewarding his 'setup', without punishing their lack of and/or clunky understanding of how the markets move. Or perhaps the trader is very successful, but only utilising one very specific strategy, say value trading penny stocks and shitcoins, but deceives both himself and his students into thinking the exact same principles apply when it comes to trading other more competitive markets. This basically describes the educator whose 'tardeing' courses I paid for.

The other big thing is that markets change. Little more than 20 years ago, if you wanted to place a trade, you would literally have to telephone your broker. Investors didn't have access to all the tools and charting packages that we take for granted these days. Perhaps back then, when markets were much more sentiment driven, really simple things like divergences on the daily chart or trading 'ascending triangle' pattern break outs, really did reliably work, and made the practitioners of such esoteric knowledge, feel like they belonged to some form of priesthood. So perhaps there is some historical precedent, for the swathes of textbook methodologies, that we all know will put a trader on his arse more often than not.

Quoting ohyeah
{quote} Yes, because if they were to tell you how to trade the market profitability, it really would take less than 5 minutes. I could set a complete new person to forex to trade the same as I do, using my tools, in less than 5 minutes. But of course they need you to chase their system so they'll never reveal what you actually need to know.
No you couldn't, because to get good at this, takes thousands of hours of screen time.
  • #73
  • Jan 4, 2022 3:47pm Jan 4, 2022 3:47pm
Quoting MatDerKater
{quote} Whilst there are a lot of total charlatans out there, no doubt.... ....I think the issue largely stems from good intentions combined with intellectual dishonesty.
The courses always come with a disclaimer to cover their backsides................

The saying goes learn all you can, pick out what works for you, then discard everything. ( and thats quite a lot).
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #74
  • Jan 4, 2022 5:15pm Jan 4, 2022 5:15pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I agree with you the quality of courses can vary a lot. But I believe some courses are actually good. There is a hearsay that if a Wallstreet trader write out his trading strategy on a board and show it to everyone walking by, eventually none would be able to trade as well as him. I am very sure that even a car racer spend hours with me and teaching me every single steps and thoughts in car racing, I will never be that level. That is the nature of teaching and learning. Many teach discretionary trading skills (ie Price Actions), the skill...
Well yes, but there are different ways to trade. Just like, there are different ways to go up on the building. One could walk up on the stairs, so someone could teach you how to walk on steps. One could take a wheelchair up on the stairs, so someone could teach you how to carry your wheelchair up the stairs. One could use ropes, etc. Also, one could take the elevator. What I'm suggesting is, if you're doing it right, it should be as easy and as effortless as possible. In my opinion, if you're doing too much or it's too hard, it's not right yet, keep making adjustments. If I were to show someone how to go up on the building, it would take less than 5 minutes to show which elevator to take, which button to push, and it would take them less than 5 minutes to understand the whole process to obtain the same identical results. Maybe it's just my INTJ personality at work with the need to make everything as easy and automated as possible but I really do believe, if it's too hard or complicated, it's not right. My system I'm testing on demo, from start to finish, takes less than 1 minute.
  • #75
  • Jan 4, 2022 10:19pm Jan 4, 2022 10:19pm
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} Well yes, but there are different ways to trade. Just like, there are different ways to go up on the building. One could walk up on the stairs, so someone could teach you how to walk on steps. One could take a wheelchair up on the stairs, so someone could teach you how to carry your wheelchair up the stairs. One could use ropes, etc. Also, one could take the elevator. What I'm suggesting is, if you're doing it right, it should be as easy and as effortless as possible. In my opinion, if you're doing too much or it's too hard, it's not right...
I have a feeling that there are indicator/alert based strategies that suit your trading style and maybe one day you will discover them.

I also opt for simple and straightforward strategies when EXECUTING the trades. The hard work is in the research and development phase. It can take a lot of effort to come up with a protocol that can be taught in 5 minutes (of coz more often is running into dead ends and end up with nothing to use/teach). I don't see any reason or anyone setting up courses for this trading approach, they mostly go to signal provider path. On the other hand, discretionary trading can also work but the skill sets have to be internalized by the traders, so there is a lot to teach and guide but some students can make it and some don't.

Over the last 2 years I have spent time on exploring possibilities with indicators and simple rules that can be converted into alerts and/or automated trading. My 2 cents would be research more on variations of basic indicators based on your observation, use statistics to determine development process and direction, and (my plan this year) develop trade management rules to accommodate the properties of the indicators of your choice.

Good luck and don't give up.

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  • #76
  • Jan 4, 2022 11:35pm Jan 4, 2022 11:35pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} I have a feeling that there are indicator/alert based strategies that suit your trading style and maybe one day you will discover them. I also opt for simple and straightforward strategies when EXECUTING the trades. The hard work is in the research and development phase. It can take a lot of effort to come up with a protocol that can be taught in 5 minutes (of coz more often is running into dead ends and end up with nothing to use/teach). I don't see any reason or anyone setting up courses for this trading approach, they mostly go to signal...
I'm confused by your post because I wasn't seeking advice and words of encouragement about not giving up. What I'm trying to say is, anyone who is teaching a course either has not figured it out themselves or, has figured it out but is presenting only a small portion of the picture (basically enough to keep you chasing for more subscription fees).
  • #77
  • Jan 4, 2022 11:41pm Jan 4, 2022 11:41pm
Something that works takes less than 5 minutes to explain in full to a completely new person to Forex. Unless you consider things that work to be equivalent to the analogy given earlier about walking up the stairs with a wheelchair on your back, using ropes, etc.
  • #78
  • Edited 12:39am Jan 5, 2022 12:23am | Edited 12:39am
Quoting ohyeah
{quote} I'm confused by your post because I wasn't seeking advice and words of encouragement about not giving up. What I'm trying to say is, anyone who is teaching a course either has not figured it out themselves or, has figured it out but is presenting only a small portion of the picture (basically enough to keep you chasing for more subscription fees).
What you mention about the people teaching is mostly true. One more situation is some teach discretionary methods that are simple but not rigid.

what I was saying is given you mentioned in previous posts saying indicators do not work in your favour, and your goal to seek simple automatic trading methods. Totally understandable your concerns and just so you know how I have the same goals of yours and chose the indicator path. A 5min strategy is simple no doubt and I also believe simple is enough, the effort behind finding this working 5min strategy likely takes way more than 5 min, and not many people would share it or teach it. Because a alert/indicator based strategy has very rigid rule and can be 100% replicated or reverse engineered, that 5-min teaching is like “cloning” a student into the teacher.

I am quite curious your approach of effortless automatic system without indicative tools. Would you disclose your approach if it is a pattern recognition? A statistical regression model? Or time based execution?
  • #79
  • Jan 5, 2022 12:52am Jan 5, 2022 12:52am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} What you mention about the people teaching is mostly true. One more situation is some teach discretionary methods that are simple but not rigid. what I was saying is given you mentioned in previous posts saying indicators do not work in your favour, and your goal to seek simple automatic trading methods. Totally understandable your concerns and just so you know how I have the same goals of yours and chose the indicator path. A 5min strategy is simple no doubt and I also believe simple is enough, the effort behind finding this working 5min...
I do use indicators in my EA, two moving averages to be exact.
  • #80
  • Jan 5, 2022 1:23am Jan 5, 2022 1:23am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} What you mention about the people teaching is mostly true. One more situation is some teach discretionary methods that are simple but not rigid. what I was saying is given you mentioned in previous posts saying indicators do not work in your favour, and your goal to seek simple automatic trading methods. Totally understandable your concerns and just so you know how I have the same goals of yours and chose the indicator path. A 5min strategy is simple no doubt and I also believe simple is enough, the effort behind finding this working 5min...
But the EA is only a tool to place and manage trades, nothing else.
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