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  • #1,207,561
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:24am Dec 23, 2021 8:24am
Quoting RCtrader
Well, I guess I should be happy with the profit I made. Let's wait and see how this hourly candle closes.
Yessss! Not sure what trade you made profit on but congrats! We should be happy with all profits!
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #1,207,562
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:28am Dec 23, 2021 8:28am
Quoting HTG
{quote} I do agree, you do have to decide where you think its is best to buy or sell. Personally though I dont find it odd at all. Do you know what happens from Tuesday to Friday with the COT report? Do you know the history of the releases and how the release dates and times have changed over time? What are you going to do with it any earlier? To bad we couldn't get the report on Monday, HA! (Kidding) It just does not matter. Another excuse by traders trying to find something to blame. Here is a quick chart and yes better analysis can be done but...
I'm checking COT like crazy all the time

I can tell if you know COT report on tuesday instead of friday, you won't make more money....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,207,563
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:31am Dec 23, 2021 8:31am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I'm checking COT like crazy all the time I can tell if you know COT report on tuesday instead of friday, you won't make more money....
Thats what I am saying!
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #1,207,564
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:39am Dec 23, 2021 8:39am
Quoting HTG
{quote} Yessss! Not sure what trade you made profit on but congrats! We should be happy with all profits!
Thanks! I had shorts and I took small profits out of them, but when the PA turned, my shorts SLs that were basically at breakeven got hit. Truth be told I could have raised the SLs 5 pips but I was not sure whether the impulse will stop or continue going up. So, it's better to stay safe.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #1,207,565
  • Dec 23, 2021 9:19am Dec 23, 2021 9:19am
Quoting HTG
{quote} Thats what I am saying!
One thing people may not know if that COT report is distributed to EVERYBODY at the same time (pros and retailers)

That's what is being said, but for sure some hedges funds and banks may have it earlier (but just a few)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,207,566
  • Dec 23, 2021 9:25am Dec 23, 2021 9:25am
s
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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POSTMASTER
  • #1,207,567
  • Dec 23, 2021 9:33am Dec 23, 2021 9:33am
Quoting here2there
{quote} That's a likely reason why it could end. When enough people catch on to a pattern, that's when market makers change things around. I believe they are using AI technology against retail traders in this way. This is why no system, no matter how promising, lasts. It all comes down to price. Price is what market makers care about, not patterns, not astronomy, not Gann foolishness, not Elliot wave wishful thinking, not harmonic nonsense, not candlesticks, not RSI, etc... Price is all that matters! Buy Low/Sell High.
That's true, but will they catch onto the pattern this year? We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.
  • #1,207,568
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:14am Dec 23, 2021 10:14am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Is this something you have learned from your own observations, or is there a fundamental basis for such a rule?
It is how COT works. You can also look at that and charts and see it for yourself. Of course it takes time but it's how it works. The more open interest the higher chance are to go the way non commercial are majority in.
  • #1,207,569
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:15am Dec 23, 2021 10:15am
Quoting Robinhood1
s {image}
Never go against the market, never get stubborn with the market, you will lose all the time.
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  • #1,207,570
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:31am Dec 23, 2021 10:31am
Quoting Robinhood1
s {image}
Topped
POSTMASTER
  • #1,207,571
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:47am Dec 23, 2021 10:47am
Quoting james1254
{quote} That's true, but will they catch onto the pattern this year? We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.
They are the ones who make the patterns. When retail catches on, that's when they switch things around. It's called bait and switch. This is why it is important to pay attention to sentiment.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,207,572
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:48am Dec 23, 2021 10:48am
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POSTMASTER
  • #1,207,573
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:50am Dec 23, 2021 10:50am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} It is how COT works. You can also look at that and charts and see it for yourself. Of course it takes time but it's how it works. The more open interest the higher chance are to go the way non commercial are majority in.
Open interest has always been a mystery to me when it comes to COT. There isn't enough information out there on it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,207,574
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:52am Dec 23, 2021 10:52am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Open interest has always been a mystery to me when it comes to COT. There isn't enough information out there on it.
COT is a well of informations

Most people get lost because they only look at commercials/non commercials, which is wrong
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,207,575
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:58am Dec 23, 2021 10:58am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} COT is a well of informations Most people get lost because they only look at commercials/non commercials, which is wrong
That's because there isn't much information out there explaining it. And the stuff that is out there makes commercials/non commercials the primary focus. If you have deeper knowledge of it, then please start a thread and share it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,207,576
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:05am Dec 23, 2021 11:05am
Quoting here2there
{quote} That's because there isn't much information out there explaining it. And the stuff that is out there makes commercials/non commercials the primary focus. If you have deeper knowledge of it, then please start a thread and share it.
I did

You have to look at the disagreggated report
3 differents groups, with long/short/overall position

It gives you 9 charts to analyse for every assets, and the idea is to be able to cross different group, compare the AM with the MM, compare the dealers with the MM, etc...

You can end up with roughly 20 charts to analyse if you really dig into it
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,207,577
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:08am Dec 23, 2021 11:08am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I did You have to look at the disagreggated report 3 differents groups, with long/short/overall position It gives you 9 charts to analyse for every assets, and the idea is to be able to cross different group, compare the AM with the MM, compare the dealers with the MM, etc... You can end up with roughly 20 charts to analyse if you really dig into it
This is still confusing to me. I need a Baby Pips approach to understanding what you are talking about here.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,207,578
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:15am Dec 23, 2021 11:15am
Quoting here2there
{quote} This is still confusing to me. I need a Baby Pips approach to understanding what you are talking about here.
Haha i'm not that good at teaching but its very simple

I'll mention only forex (because commodities is different)
There are 3 main groups, Dealers, Assets managers, and money managers

The 3 of them are linked overall, even though i find money managers living his own life
The best ones are the Dealers (smart money) and Assets managers (dumb money).

Dealers add positions as prices go against them (they look for reversal)
AM add within the trend, until they are maxed out and prices reverse on them

By analysing it, you have to look at some "weird" positions, or extreme ones

Check the below, for MXN currency, don't tell you couldn't have made money over the past 5 years

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,207,579
  • Edited 11:49am Dec 23, 2021 11:36am | Edited 11:49am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Haha i'm not that good at teaching but its very simple I'll mention only forex (because commodities is different) There are 3 main groups, Dealers, Assets managers, and money managers The 3 of them are linked overall, even though i find money managers living his own life The best ones are the Dealers (smart money) and Assets managers (dumb money). Dealers add positions as prices go against them (they look for reversal) AM add within the trend, until they are maxed out and prices reverse on them By analysing it, you have to look at some "weird"...
In the image below, Dealers seem to be confused. But Asset Managers have increased their longs, and their longs are significantly higher than their shorts. So this should be seen as a bullish sign, and possibly an indication of a correction or a trend reversal?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AM.png Size: 64 KB

Update: I somehow overlooked you mentioning Asset Managers are 'dumb money' (in your opinion).
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,207,580
  • Dec 23, 2021 11:44am Dec 23, 2021 11:44am
It looks like this day candle could be a doji.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
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