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  • #1,207,541
  • Dec 23, 2021 5:47am Dec 23, 2021 5:47am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} the correction must be made, even if it rises further thereafter. h1.
Yes, there is such a trend. to go up, you need to go down a little. Or vice versa, to go down you need not go up a lot.
  • #1,207,542
  • Dec 23, 2021 5:52am Dec 23, 2021 5:52am
Quoting Nordling00
Something fishy is going on in the market. Almost in every pair. Price moves against fundamentals and the COT report. Although US GDP numbers came out good today and FED was hawkish in the last FOMC, price still goes against all these odds. We can see very surprising things in the coming days, maybe one of those new year crashes? Idk, but something is not right. Just my spidey senses. I don't like making up conspiracies, maybe i am the one who gets it wrong this time. Still, i will stick with my analysis. I will keep my EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD shorts...
Its not going against COT report
I showed you, its perfect situation really (at least for this week....next week is another one)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,207,543
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:23am Dec 23, 2021 6:23am
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} Better keep silent. The more you speak, the more I am convinced of your low education.
I will not keep silent. You are not making sense of what you're saying. Stop stretching it and stick to trading.
  • #1,207,544
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:24am Dec 23, 2021 6:24am
Attached Image
  • #1,207,545
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:24am Dec 23, 2021 6:24am
This is almost at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022. Plus it is Christmas and holidays. So market will do anything so better to stay out and not have any trades open. Trade safe.
  • #1,207,546
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:27am Dec 23, 2021 6:27am
EURUSD will have to complete this auction where I put white rectangle. It is going down for now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,207,547
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:39am Dec 23, 2021 6:39am
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  • #1,207,548
  • Dec 23, 2021 6:57am Dec 23, 2021 6:57am
Quoting Techanalyst
EURUSD will have to complete this auction where I put white rectangle. It is going down for now. {image}
Same with GBPUSD will have to complete the auction where white rectangle is.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5.png Size: 70 KB
  • #1,207,549
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:37am Dec 23, 2021 7:37am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Its not going against COT report I showed you, its perfect situation really (at least for this week....next week is another one)
Are you looking at non-commercials? They are currently short on EU
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,207,550
  • Dec 23, 2021 7:40am Dec 23, 2021 7:40am
https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/

https://amgreatness.com/2021/12/20/c...actions-hyped/
  • #1,207,551
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:03am Dec 23, 2021 8:03am
Quoting Winston Reed
https://covid19criticalcare.com/covid-19-protocols/ https://amgreatness.com/2021/12/20/c...actions-hyped/
It is very interesting to see that FLCCC does not advocate hydrochloroquine because it has proven to be less effective than other drugs.

And then suggest a cocktail treatment protocol, claiming the big organizations do not care about this finding.

And then it put on the FDA protocol showing what is happening that align exactly their goal: cocktail drug treatment using so-far most potent drugs.

And all those names and numbers match the potency statistics as one of your previous post references. Dunno why they so insist to go for middle-tier options when the guideline is using highest-tier..

anyway just dropping a food of thought
  • #1,207,552
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:07am Dec 23, 2021 8:07am
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} Are you looking at non-commercials? They are currently short on EU
You also want to keep in mind open interest. If it is +10,000 it is a much better chance that the currency will go where they tend to go. Meaning if open interest is for example +10,000 or above, and you have 200,000 short and let's say long 85,000 with open interest +10,000 there is a very good chance it will go further down and much sooner. If it is below +10,000 or even in negative like now, I would not count on COT for this specific currency. But that is specifically talking about COT non commercial. Of course before that we would first have to look at macro fundamentals, and go from there. Trade safe.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,207,553
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:15am Dec 23, 2021 8:15am
Quoting forex-wolf
{image}{image}
You're out, both positions lost money.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 129 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1.png Size: 92 KB
  • #1,207,554
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:17am Dec 23, 2021 8:17am
we are approaching to support and then up...
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Trendlines H1,H4, SMC
  • #1,207,555
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:31am Dec 23, 2021 8:31am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} You also want to keep in mind open interest. If it is +10,000 it is a much better chance that the currency will go where they tend to go.... {image}
Is this something you have learned from your own observations, or is there a fundamental basis for such a rule?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,207,556
  • Dec 23, 2021 8:45am Dec 23, 2021 8:45am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} You're out, both positions lost money. {image} {image}
Nice analysis. I closed at BRN noticing a QM SR flip. Small trade against HHHL formation.

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  • #1,207,557
  • Dec 23, 2021 9:13am Dec 23, 2021 9:13am
Well, I guess I should be happy with the profit I made. Let's wait and see how this hourly candle closes.
Risk Management is of utmost importance!
  • #1,207,558
  • Dec 23, 2021 9:13am Dec 23, 2021 9:13am
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...Stoped twice trying to bottom-fish.. . . BUT I am long and looking North . . . . . .NOW.

  • #1,207,559
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:14am Dec 23, 2021 10:14am
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} It's the highs, they said... it goes over the top of ADR....stochastic screaming overbought... I bought anyway, and here's what happen. {image}
Trail stop was hit. I flipped.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,207,560
  • Dec 23, 2021 10:18am Dec 23, 2021 10:18am
Quoting here2there
{quote} It's all trickery. How do we even know the data they are feeding us is accurate? How do we know they don't use it against us? Don't you find it odd that COT data is given on a Tuesday, but we don't get to see it until Friday? Why not give it to us on Wednesday? They make the rules work in their favor, and thus they use the rules against us. So what are we to do about it? It all comes down to deciding where you think it is best to buy or sell, and accepting the market's response to your decision. That's the best one can do.

I do agree, you do have to decide where you think its is best to buy or sell.

Personally though I dont find it odd at all. Do you know what happens from Tuesday to Friday with the COT report? Do you know the history of the releases and how the release dates and times have changed over time?

What are you going to do with it any earlier? To bad we couldn't get the report on Monday, HA! (Kidding)

It just does not matter. Another excuse by traders trying to find something to blame.

Here is a quick chart and yes better analysis can be done but I am not going to do it. This is a really short sample of data.

Blue Lines are the Friday release

Black Lines would be the Tuesday release

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COTRelease.png Size: 90 KB


From a Tuesday release to a Friday release prices is usually not that far away. Out of this sampling I think there is one drop of 120 pips or so but with that the following Friday release gave you chance to get in short if thats the way your analysis of the COT report was telling you to do.

Most of the weeks between Tuesday and Friday you will find price does not run far and really you need to know is, was the COT report bullish or bearish for the dollar but either way, you can easily look at this and play out both scenarios to see that your really not going to benefit getting this report any earlier then you already are.

Speaking from a fundamental perspective , typically your holding trades a bit longer if you are even talking fundamentals or using COT to make trading decisions so the price difference between Tuesday and Friday in the long term hold of your position is not that big of a price difference.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
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