AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1335
Euro's rally from 1.1268 ahead of European open on Wed to 1.1354 in New York on broad-based usd's weakness suggests pullback from last week's 1.1382 high has ended at 1.1229 (Tue) and above 1.1382 would extend early rise from Nov's 16-month 1.1187 trough twd 1.1434 before retreat due to overbough condition.

On the downside, only below 1.1296/99 signals top is made and risks weakness to 1.1267/68 later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand manufacturing sales,China PPI, CPI.
U.K. TICS housing price balance, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account,
Canada leading index, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, wholesales inventories and wholesale sales.

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AceTraderFx Dec 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.45
The greenback's rise to 113.77 on Tuesday due to a rally in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields suggests the 1st leg of correction from November's fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended at 112.54 last Tuesday and intra-day weakness would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise towards 114.20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.50/60 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.08/10 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 112.70/80.

On the eco. data front, U.S. will release initial jobless claims, continued jobless claims, wholesale inventories n sales.

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AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1295
Euro's erratic fall from last week's 1.1382 high to 1.1229 Tue suggests correction from November's 1.1187 low has ended and despite rebound to 1.1354 (Wednesday), subsequent fall to 1.1279 yesterday on broad-based usd's strength signals consolidation with downside bias remains but daily close below 1.1229 needed to bring re-test of 1.1187 next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1354 dampens bearishness and risk would shift to upside for gain towards 1.1382.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. We also have a number of ECB officials schedued to speak today, pay attention to particiaption by ECB Preident Lagarde in a panel discussion at BIS forum at 09:05GMT.

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AceTraderFx Dec 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.58
Dollar's decline from this week's high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov's 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

Data for Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, retail sales, Japan corporate goods price.
U.K. GDP, construction output, trade balance, industrial output, manufacturing output, NIESR GDP estimate, Germany CPI, Italy industrial output.
Canada capacity utilization, U.S. CPI, University of Michigan sentiment and Federal budget.

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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1308
Last week's rise from 1.1229 (Tue) to 1.1354 Wednesday and then retreat to 1.1266 on Friday suggests volatile trading 'inside' recent 1.1187-1.1382 broad range would continue this week and despite subsequent rally to 1.1324 on renewed usd' s weakness in New York, as long as 1.1354 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1266.

Only a daily close above 1.1354 shifts risk to upside for stronger gain towards 1.1385.

The eco. calendar is pretty light today with German wholesale price index being the only data due out.
Market is paying attention to Wednesday's FOMC rate decision and then Thursday's ECB monetary policy announcement, so range trading would continue in next couple of days.

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AceTraderFx Dec 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.65
Dollar's decline from this week's high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov's 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only abv 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

Data out today:
New Zealand business NZ PSI, Japan machinery orders, Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index and Tankan small non-manufacturing index.
Germany wholesale price index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1281
Euro's recent daily wild swings are expected to continue until FOMC's monetary policy announcement on Wed and price would gyrate inside 1.1229-1.1354 range. As long as upper level holds, weakness towards 1.1229 is envisaged, break would head back towards Nov's 16-month bottom at 1.1187 'later'.

Only a daily close above 1.1354 shifts risk to upside for gain toward 1.1382 (reaction high from 1.1187).

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average weekly earnings, Swiss producer/import price, EU industrial production.
U.S. PPI and redbook.

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AceTraderFx Dec 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.68
Dollar's decline from this week's high at 113.95 (Wed) to 113.28 yesterday on safe-haven yen buying suggests recent erratic rise from Nov's 6-week bottom at 112.54 has possibly made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.08 but reckon 112.54 should hold from here.

Only above 113.95 risks one more rise to 114.15/20 before prospect of another fall due to loss of upward momentum.

U.S. will release PPI, core PPI n redbook retail sales.
The FOMC will start its 2-day monetary policy meeting later today.

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AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1267
Despite euro's rally to 1.1325 in Europe on Tuesday, subsequent break of 1.1261 (Mon) to 1.1254 in New York on broad-based usd's strength suggests recent daily wild swings are expected to continue inside 1.1229-1.1382 range with downside bias until FOMC's monetary policy announcement today, below 1.1229 would head back towards 1.1187 (Nov low) later.

Only a daily close above 1.1325 shifts risk to upside for gain toward 1.1354, then 1.1382 (reaction high from 1.1187).

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Australia consumer sentiment, Westpac leading index, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activities, U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, DCLG house price index, Markit manufacturing PMI.
France CPI, Italy CPI, Canada housing starts, CPI, manufacturing sales.
.S. import prices, exports prices, retail sales, business inventories, NAHB housing market index and Fed interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Dec 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.66
Dollar's 1-week long choppy trading from last Wed's 113.95 high are likely to end later today and yield another rise due to expected Fed's hawkish tilt, above 113.95 would extend upmove from Nov's 112.54 low to retrace recent decline to 114.30/40.

On the downside, only below 113.23 signals said corrective rise has ended, then weakness to 113.08 and later 112.68/72 would be seen later this week.

Today is the today n at 19:00GMT, FOMC will announce its monetary policy decision n release Fed's forward guidance (Fed's dot plot). Then at 19:30GMT, Fed's chair J. Powell will have to eat his humble pie in front of the press n publicly say the word 'transitory' whicih had been used repeatedly, despite market's objection/rebuke, to describe Fed's perception of U.S. rising inflation is dead, period.
Tuesday's release of Nov's PPI showed the index grew at the fastest pace on record. Ahead of FOMC announcement, we have a slew of U.S. eco. data, pls refr to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1283
Despite euro's spike down to a 2-1/2 week 1.1223 low in New York on Fed's hawkish tilt, subsequent rally to 1.1299 on broad-based usd's retreat due to profit taking suggests choppy trading above Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1187 would continue, above 1.1299 would yield further gain to 1.1325/35.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1250/54 signals said recovery has ended and re-test of 1.1223 is seen later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia manufacturing index, services PMI, employment change, unemployment change, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China retail sales, France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, trade balance, labour cost, ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase programme, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MOC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada wholesale trade and ADP employment change.

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AceTraderFx Dec 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.13
Dollar's break of last week's high at 113.95 to 114.26 in post-FOMC New York after Fed's hawkish tilt suggests correction from Nov's 115.51 peak has ended earlier at 112.54 and further gain to 114.60/70 may be seen after consolidation before retreat due to loss of near term upward momentum.

On the downside, only a daily close below 113.95 dampens bullish outlook and risks weakness twd 113.44 later.

Data release on Thursday:
New Zealand food price index, Australia manufacturing index, services PMI, employment change, unemployment change, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, China retail sales.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI,EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, trade balance, labour cost, ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase programme, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchase, BOE MOC vote hike, BOE MPC vote unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, KC Fed manufacturing, Canada wholesale trade and ADP employment change.

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AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1331
Despite euro's impressive rally in post-FOMC New York to 1.1299 on Wednesday, then yesterday's break there to 1.1360 after ECB's unchanged rate decision, subsequent retreat to 1.1299 suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.1187-1.1382 broad range would continue, below 1.1291/99 yields weakness to 1.1254/58 but 1.1223 should contain downside.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1360 may risk further gain towards 1.1382, break, 1.1434 next week.

We have data dump frm the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Ifo business climate at 09:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Dec 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.56
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, Germany producer prices, wholesale price index, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, France business climate, U.K. Markit services PMI, EU construction output, HICP, Canada wholesale trade and budget balance.

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AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1249
Euro's selloff from 1.1360 in post-ECB Thur to as low as 1.1236 on Fri due to safe-haven usd buying suggests choppy trading below previous 1.1382 res would continue with downside bias, below last week's 1.1223 low (Wed) signals correction from Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1187 has ended and yield re-test of this level later.

Only a daily close abv 1.1282 'prolongs' recent choppy sideways swings and may risk stronger gain to 1.1325/35.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries today.

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AceTraderFx Dec 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
U.K. Rightmove house price, CBI trends orders.
U.S. leading index change on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1278
Despite euro's decline from last week's high at 1.1360 (Thur) to 1.1236 Friday, then to 1.1235 (New Zealand) yesterday, subsequent rebound to 1.1303 in New York suggests daily choppy swings inside recent 1.1223-1.1360 range would continue, as long as 1.1360 holds, downside bias remains but below lower level is needed to head towards Nov's 1.1187 low later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1325 may risk stronger gain to 1.1345/50 but 1.1360 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand Westpac consumer survey, GDT price index.
Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Italy industrial sales, producer prices.
U.S. current account, Canada new housing price index, retail sales, U.S. redbook and EU consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Dec 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.59
Despite the greenback's rally to 114.26 in post-FOMC trading on Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.57 yesterday in tandem with U.S. yields and intra-day break below there to 113.45 in post-BOJ trading suggests early rise from 112.54 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger weakness to 113.23, however, 113.00/10 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 113.85 (Asia) would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and bring gain towards 114.26 again.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with 2nd-tier current account n redbook sales being the only data due out later today

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AceTraderFx Dec 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1286
Despite euro's decline from last week's high at 1.1360 (Thur) to to 1.1235 on Mondsay, subsequent rebound to 1.1303 and yesterday's retreat from 1.1302 to 1.1261 suggests daily choppy swings inside recent 1.1223-1.1360 range would continue with downside bias but below lower level is needed to head towards Nov's 1.1187 bottom 'later' this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1303 risks stronger gain to 1.1325 but reckon 1.1345/50 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia Westpac leading index.
U.K. GDP, France producer prices, Italy trade balance, U.K. current account, MBA mortgage application, GDP, PCE prices, national activity index, consumer confidence and existing home sales.

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AceTraderFx Dec 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.30
Dollar's intra-day firm break of last week's high at 114.26 (Wed) due to renewed cross-selling in yen suggests early correction from Nov's 3-year peak at 115.51 has possibly ended earlier at 112.54 and upside bias remains for further gain to 114.80/90, a daily close above needed to head twd 115.25 later this week.

On the downside, only below 113.95 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and may risk weakness to 113.56/60.

On the data front, U.S. will later release a slew of economic indicators, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attetion to U.S. Q3 GDP, PCE n core PCE n later consumer confidence. If readings of these data are better than expected, then expect the greenback will move higher further.

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