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  • #143,141
  • Dec 10, 2021 2:55am Dec 10, 2021 2:55am
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} Unfortunately I can't follow or depend on anybody's views. Not in this game. Wiser just to try to pick up on someone's experience here and there. I used to find my views in agreement with those of Ata oftentimes but when not, it really got brutal with market direction (I made lots of money or avoided huge losses). Let me tell you what I think is going on. The November 24 low is solid and a genuine yearly trend reversal. The rise that ensued was halted by big money to accumulate long / reverse. Until they are done they won't let it go up....
ok bro, just do you. peace
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #143,142
  • Dec 10, 2021 3:03am Dec 10, 2021 3:03am
Quoting Endoephemera
{quote} Unfortunately I can't follow or depend on anybody's views. Not in this game. Wiser just to try to pick up on someone's experience here and there. I used to find my views in agreement with those of Ata oftentimes but when not, it really got brutal with market direction (I made lots of money or avoided huge losses). Let me tell you what I think is going on. The November 24 low is solid and a genuine yearly trend reversal. The rise that ensued was halted by big money to accumulate long / reverse. Until they are done, they won't let it go up....
So in your opinion the bottom at 11xx is indeed a bottom for the year, at least? If that's what you mean I agree with you. At some point this December spikes will come.
  • #143,143
  • Dec 10, 2021 3:32am Dec 10, 2021 3:32am
In my previous posts, I have focused on bulls threats. When mainly selling, my main focus is on buying, and vice versa. This helps me stay objective. I will try to balance that a little more in my shares.

This fresh 8H pullback setup(only to be confirmed under 1275) is starting to have an effect on my long-term shorts planning, and will even more so if we get a decisive 1275 to 1260 BO before any new 1350s reach.

Has this pullback reached it's limits? Or will it, like the last one(October), reach even higher ground?
Higher ground still would probably be minimum 1380s - 1460s, and with a lot of mean wicks .
I would prefer, as a temporary bear surfing the 1W trend, that price's momentum and timing be right and ripe to avoid that, to avoid more volatility both ways. Alas, we have no say in the matter and must plan many outcomes. Having a few strategies using only open and close of a candle, among other techniques, like exits and re-entering, help greatly during volatile times, on the crazy wick dancing floor .

On another note, we all know that every ranging period must come to an end some day.
I personally never found a way to know "when", not even an decent enough approximation, and boy did I puzzle my mind about it!
And the following may seems trivial, but to me it is really not. In my analysis and mm, I also factor this simple but crucial fact: the longer it goes... the closer we get.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,144
  • Dec 10, 2021 3:37am Dec 10, 2021 3:37am
If this candle leave a wick this will be a good sign of how much the level is strong..and i will think to enter buy hope without hesitate
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #143,145
  • Dec 10, 2021 3:49am Dec 10, 2021 3:49am
Quoting mtako
{quote} ... And I much prefer Ata's chillin'-trading Cafe ! filled with like-minded, intelligent, good-hearted people. Soooo, even if in loss now, my short 12835 is open, and has its dynamic declining SL, which was initially at BE, 1328, now is at 1221. To add to the above, volatility that caused the momentary stir has vanished, like my slumber , and my presently most important 15m average resistances, 1290s to 1310s, have a decent enough chance of keeping price down a little longer. Bears, let's...
Was waiting for yesterdays lows for this : if it continues ranging from here, I prefer to be out of this short.
Moved SL down, at return into range level, SL: 1304
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,146
  • Dec 10, 2021 4:15am Dec 10, 2021 4:15am
CPI ? inflation data coming out today. expect lots of volatility. News on the street is it is going to be pretty high.

How that would affect tapering moving forward? FOMC next week,

i am expecting a surprise christmas pressie, perhaps a curtailed tapering.

Overall, i am expecting dollar weakness, euro strength for the mid term. time will tell. looking to see if price retests 1.119... area before bouncing up. Intraday trades exciting today i suppose, but I am looking for swing opportunities to present themselves so see how the day goes and where dxy closes this week - below or above 96.25.

Happy trading.
  • #143,147
  • Dec 10, 2021 4:17am Dec 10, 2021 4:17am
Meanwhile, on M15: for now, 1.1288 is my nearest resistance..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #143,148
  • Dec 10, 2021 4:28am Dec 10, 2021 4:28am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Meanwhile, on M15: for now, 1.1288 is my nearest resistance.. {image}
I can't keep my eyes off those two hanging fruits in your chart ! What damage a double-bottom such as this could do to poor bears !

P.S thank you all for speaking your mind. I will do my very very best with pleasure.
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,149
  • Edited 5:24am Dec 10, 2021 5:02am | Edited 5:24am
Quoting mtako
... Am watching extra closely a return to 1290 -1300s important! supports (waiting till this 30min close, I don't trust this down move just yet !), and 1320 micro resistance also, as surprising as that sounds!Second best case scenario for my bears, 1290s becoming resistance right away. Best case scenario, for now, 1260s become resistance this early; that could slow down a bulls attempt to come back from <1230s as strong as it did yesterday, and...
Yesterday my second best case scenario happened. 2nd crucial moment now for me :

watching carefully 1260s, as this is from where, if bulls attack 1290s again, price will have what it takes to attack the mid-high of the range, minimum 1310, and force ranging to continue a while more...

And from the chart I shared earlier, 1st step finished, showing a first sign of the potential to make a newer low and not simple tighten the range some more.
Now to the 2nd step, that cowboy needs to lasso down the mid-line under my average medium-term ma(89), and keep it below 1290s resistance!

update : my last night live share 12835 is now at BE. A miracle will have happened if the news doesn't take it out but that is ok, as enough times, it doesn't.

P.S Also, I trade a lot and have many open positions. For anyone having ideas about any given live setup I share, just point it out and also exactly what you have in mind, so I could precisely address your particular thoughts and clarify that particular trade faster and easier. As long as it's focused on eurusd of course. Thank you mates!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,150
  • Dec 10, 2021 6:15am Dec 10, 2021 6:15am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Yes I started referring to the average of all brokers listed here.. Bigger dataset should give me better results.. I am still testing though.. (The difference between "FF" vs "Average of All Brokers" can be big and I am beginning to understand why FF failed us at certain times in the past.. https://fxssi.com/tools/current-ratio {image}
Hi Ata, have you made any progress with this ? I have tried also but it is still not conclusive.



Bulls waking up at last !?
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,151
  • Dec 10, 2021 6:44am Dec 10, 2021 6:44am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Yesterday my second best case scenario happened. 2nd crucial moment now for me : watching carefully 1260s, as this is from where, if bulls attack 1290s again, price will have what it takes to attack the mid-high of the range, minimum 1310, and force ranging to continue a while more... And from the chart I shared earlier, 1st step finished, showing a first sign of the potential to make a newer low and not simple tighten the range some more. Now to the 2nd step, that cowboy needs to lasso down the mid-line under my average...
Wait and watch whether the 4hr candle closes either below or above 1.12470.(ATR)
  • #143,152
  • Dec 10, 2021 6:50am Dec 10, 2021 6:50am
Attached Image

I'll be busy today so I'm avoiding the FRIDAY RUSH

EOD EU 1.13285

This is strictly a short term decision for me; "sell the rumor and buy the fact is where I'm going at"
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #143,153
  • Edited 7:24am Dec 10, 2021 6:52am | Edited 7:24am
The technical picture is clearly bullish. Falling Wedge landing on the previous resistance means that it is supposed to hold as a support. However, the inflation number coming out soon is of utmost importance and might blow every technical picture...
From this picture 1.1250 would be the max level for a fake breakout to the downside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 69 KB
Another day, another dollar.
  • #143,154
  • Dec 10, 2021 6:52am Dec 10, 2021 6:52am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Yesterday my second best case scenario happened. 2nd crucial moment now for me : watching carefully 1260s, as this is from where, if bulls attack 1290s again, price will have what it takes to attack the mid-high of the range, minimum 1310, and force ranging to continue a while more... And from the chart I shared earlier, 1st step finished, showing a first sign of the potential to make a newer low and not simple tighten the range some more. Now to the 2nd step, that cowboy needs to lasso down the mid-line under my average...
Also look at the 4 hr candle closing price, whether its above or below 1.12944
  • #143,155
  • Dec 10, 2021 7:01am Dec 10, 2021 7:01am
Quoting nic9man
The technical picture is clearly bullish. Falling Wedge landing on the previous resistance means that it is supposed to hold as a support. However, the inflation number coming out soon is of utmost importance and might blow every technical picture... {image}
That's what is so funny about this - EVERYONE KNOWS it will be high! The question is how high and what are the consequences?

The FED isn't going to raise rates until June at the earliest

Tapering IS going to happen and who cares?

There will likely be a knee jerk reaction (either high or low) which I believe will spike lower but within 10 minutes it should reverse direction and I'm thinking it will break higher - but hey I bought my crystal ball on e-Bay!
Attached Image


EDIT: 30 minutes left ....
...because you never know - until you do!
  • #143,156
  • Dec 10, 2021 7:12am Dec 10, 2021 7:12am
Quoting fxsport
{quote} That's what is so funny about this - EVERYONE KNOWS it will be high! The question is how high and what are the consequences? The FED isn't going to raise rates until June at the earliest Tapering IS going to happen and who cares? There will likely be a knee jerk reaction (either high or low) which I believe will spike lower but within 10 minutes it should reverse direction and I'm thinking it will break higher - but hey I bought my crystal ball on e-Bay! {image} EDIT: 30 minutes left ....
fxsport... I could really use one of those!

On a slightly more serious note, I agree with you actually, even as a heavy yet temporary shorter. To your questions, I would add the often too obvious one : when?

Quoting Sankara001
{quote} Also look at the 4 hr candle closing price, whether its above or below 1.12944
Nice, yes, I find that level to be important in the face of the 4H. And on another note, I need at least 3! 4H lower closes below 1290 or above 1320 to have hopes that price is perhaps getting out of ranging conditions. 3 Consecutive lower closes would be much more determinant at finishing this range off, but rarer, in my view.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,157
  • Dec 10, 2021 7:20am Dec 10, 2021 7:20am
Quoting SiamonSings
1H HnS in the making. Break of 1.12860 with momentum may have the price test the weeks low. I'm short all in.
Closing for +25

Going long here with tight SL.
  • #143,158
  • Dec 10, 2021 7:29am Dec 10, 2021 7:29am
Quoting mtako
In my previous posts, I have focused on bulls threats. When mainly selling, my main focus is on buying, and vice versa. This helps me stay objective. I will try to balance that a little more in my shares. This fresh 8H pullback setup(only to be confirmed under 1275) is starting to have an effect on my long-term shorts planning, and will even more so if we get a decisive 1275 to 1260 BO before any new 1350s reach. Has this pullback reached it's limits? Or will it, like the last one(October), reach even higher ground? Higher ground still would probably...
1263 is determinate for my 8H pullback trade to be confirmed !

Quoting mtako
{quote}...update : my last night live share 12835 is now at BE. {image}
TP set for this one at 1255. The rest of my shorts are still open. I will not share my protection strategy today, but as usual, protection of realized gains is the priority.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (5879).png Size: 36 KB
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #143,159
  • Dec 10, 2021 7:34am Dec 10, 2021 7:34am
Quoting SiamonSings
{quote} Closing for +25 Going long here with tight SL.
+35 in the kitty
  • #143,160
  • Dec 10, 2021 7:43am Dec 10, 2021 7:43am
Inflation slightly higher but mostly energy driven - this component will fade next month...
Another day, another dollar.
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