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  • #1,205,781
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:25pm Dec 6, 2021 7:25pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I would rather flip a coin against a person's entries to test the validity of his or her strategy. Lol This is what is needed: 1. the trader must reveal his or her strategy (must be an actual strategy based on technicals, not a guesstimate) 2. the trader must stick with the same strategy for 100 trades 3. the trader must share his or her entry price, stop loss, and take profit 4. 100 trades must be completed no more than 1 year from the time of the first trade I would then use this tool to see if their...
here2there, about point 3, for those who profitable with low win rate , usually the stop loss and take profit is dynamic/not fixed ,just like trend following system, can be work with simple cross moving average , so , the trader dont know the exact sl and tp beside depending to what indicator said . Thats why, low win rate can make profit only if there are any trend that is long enough without retrace. There are other way to become profitable, such as averaging and pyramiding position that can works, depends on the trader too, although its more risky,but alot of trader using it.
You could take a look at milipede thread , the win rate is so small, but it become profitable in the long run.
Just like this euro , i still hold a lot of my sell position since june(some of it died while euro is retrace) , and keep selling whenever have a chance. I still do diversification(take buy) if the condition is possible, although all my buy got sl till today.
  • #1,205,782
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:26pm Dec 6, 2021 7:26pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} If my win rate is less than 50%, which it usually is by the way, then this doesn't mean that my TA is not working and the only factor causing it to work is merely money management. Your coin flip is an inappropriate test to prove that one's TA is not a major factor along with money management in the profitability of one's strategy. As I've said before TA without money management in a strategy that is 50%, greater than 50% or less than 50% win rate is a losing strategy. If a coin flip is all you need then flip a coin and go long or short...
You just aren't understanding me. And I have had enough of trying to help you get the point. And I find it offensive that you lied about me. I thought you were better than that. You have disappointed me.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,783
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:30pm Dec 6, 2021 7:30pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} You just aren't understanding me. And I have had enough of trying to help you get the point. And I find it offensive that you lied about me. I thought you were better than that. You have disappointed me.
Give me a break! I was never seeking your approval.
  • #1,205,784
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:34pm Dec 6, 2021 7:34pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Give me a break! I was never seeking your approval.
It's not about seeking my approval. I called you out on something false you said about me. You still haven't apologized. That makes you a liar. Your credibility is shot.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,785
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:40pm Dec 6, 2021 7:40pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} It's not about seeking your approval. I called you out on your lie about me, and you still haven't apologized. That makes you a liar. Your credibility is shot.
I assure you my credibility is very much intact and is not dependent on any lame post by you. I have nothing to apologize for. Like I said I can read between the lines. I guess I should have more respect for you with all those charts you post with your live trading. DOH! There I go again lying about you.
  • #1,205,786
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:44pm Dec 6, 2021 7:44pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I assure you my credibility is very much intact and is not dependent on any lame post by you. I have nothing to apologize for. Like I said I can read between the lines. I guess I should have more respect for you with all those charts you post with your live trading. DOH! There I go again lying about you.
You made a false statement about me. I corrected you, and even provided proof from an earlier post to show that what you said is false. You are not even trying to make things right. And now you are making things worse by being sarcastic. Your behavior is repulsive.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,787
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:56pm Dec 6, 2021 7:56pm
All a bit of fun on here, I guess (hope)


Here’s my thing with a coin flip

You might actually need a SECOND coin flip,

to decide whether now at this current price POINT, is where you might even want to start a ‘coin flip’.


so a 1st Coin Flip - for will I take a trade where price is now - right ‘here’ ?

then a 2nd Coin Flip - for will I now buy or sell at THIS price point ?


(and then maybe a 3rd coin flip later on whether to close a trade at a particular point )


Sorry H2T, and all, I'm just taking the p!ss a little this morning , pls continue



But back to trading

I do have EURUSD right in the ‘very middle’ of a possible 70p up or down move

ie it’s the perfect place to flip a coin IF you so desire to trade in that particular way

But not for me, I need a few more (and multiple) confirmations, before taking a trade.


EU Price is around a 1.12770 target line, now.

up would be to 1.13490
(of course, with the override of the ‘monthly’ open line, where continue or reverse might happen at 1.13350)

and down would be to 1.12040


I have NO trade plan right now, as I write, on whether to buy or sell sorry.

(and I’ve only got notes in my pocket, so no coin flip for me )


Wishing all a great weeks trading, & maybe some fun in life ahead also
  • #1,205,788
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:03pm Dec 6, 2021 8:03pm
Quoting TimeTells
All a bit of fun on here, I guess (hope) Here’s my thing with a coin flip You might actually need a SECOND coin flip, to decide whether now at this current price POINT, is where you might even want to start a ‘coin flip’. so a 1st Coin Flip - for will I take a trade where price is now - right ‘here’ ? then a 2nd Coin Flip - for will I now buy or sell at THIS price point ? (and then maybe a 3rd coin flip later on whether to close a trade at a particular point ) Sorry H2T, and all, I'm just taking the p!ss a little this morning...
Please understand that I am not saying people should base their trades on a coin flip. I am only trying to point out that maybe the indicator, or candlestick pattern, or trendlines, etc..., people are putting their confidence into really aren't giving them any advantage. Maybe it's just a combination of luck and good risk-management. But if luck has nothing to do with it, then perhaps they do have an actual edge. But I don't consider a person who has a win rate less than 50% as having an edge. They may be profitable, but that is likely only because they are good at managing their trades.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,789
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:06pm Dec 6, 2021 8:06pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Please understand that I am not saying people should base their trades on a coin flip.
Hi H2T,
I do understand mate, was just trying to lighten it a little
  • #1,205,790
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:09pm Dec 6, 2021 8:09pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} You made a false statement about me. I corrected you, and even provided proof from an earlier post to show that what you said is false. You are not even trying to make things right. And now you are making things worse by being sarcastic. Your behavior is repulsive.
I know you've ignored me but here it is. This is the best apology I can give you. I admit that you never stated that you think TA is useless and I do apologize for saying that. However, even though you don't say it I believe you are attempting to discredit TA to a certain extent with your proposed experiment. I'm not saying that to tear you down either. Wrong or right your posts, to me, back that up.

Also the fact is you don't post trades in a forum that is all about trading. If you think flipping a coin has value then why don't YOU prove it. You don't need everyone else to do this for you. It's difficult to see how this can help anyone's trading like you say it could especially when you yourself rarely if ever post any charts with analysis or otherwise. Why do you want to interject doubt in other's trading? If you trade you don't show it. Why would anyone believe you can help their trading with your "coin-flip" experiment. Well enough said. I wish you well.
  • #1,205,791
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:24pm Dec 6, 2021 8:24pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I know you've ignored me but here it is. This is the best apology I can give you. I admit that you never stated that you think TA is useless and I do apologize for saying that. However, even though you don't say it I believe you are attempting to discredit TA to a certain extent with your proposed experiment. I'm not saying that to tear you down either. Wrong or right your posts, to me, back that up. Also the fact is you don't post trades in a forum that is all about trading. If you think flipping a coin has value then why don't YOU prove...
Thank you for the apology!

Maybe this comment will better help to clarify my intentions concerning this matter.

I am all for TA. It is useful. It's just that much of what is taught is garbage. My coin flip challenge derives mostly from frustration caused by nonsense in the Forex market. The sad thing is people have paid a lot of money to learn stuff that doesn't really work. I am one of those people who has paid for worthless trading information, as well as premium indicators that turned out to be useless.

As for sharing trading ideas. I used to do that a lot on here. I stopped sharing because I felt like my efforts were not appreciated. Now I just chime in to share comments from time to time, and to see what people are talking about.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,792
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:32pm Dec 6, 2021 8:32pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} But how can you refine your strategy if you don't test it? How can you get more out of trading without knowing what is actually working for you? If your win rate is less than 50%, then I think it is your risk-management that is really making you profitable.
Risk management is what makes any trader, whether in a bank or in a bedroom, profitable.

I think what you are really looking is a way to systematically approach the market that you can trust. There is no certainty. Engineers tend to make terrible traders because they are looking for perfection. I am sure you know that martingale methods have a win rate usually around 90%, but eventually you are going to blow up. This is because "losers average losers." Nothing new there.

How do I refine my strategy, or better yet, process? I do it by being quicker to spot double tops, double bottoms, channels, hidden gaps, and trendline overshoots. I get more disciplined about defining trend and range. I get better at retreating when I am wrong and getting bigger, faster, when I am right.

In other words, seat time. There are no shortcuts and no substitutes to seat time. Get to know who you are dancing with, and what makes them move.

Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} If my win rate is less than 50%, which it usually is by the way, then this doesn't mean that my TA is not working and the only factor causing it to work is merely money management. Your coin flip is an inappropriate test to prove that one's TA is not a major factor along with money management in the profitability of one's strategy. As I've said before TA without money management in a strategy that is 50%, greater than 50% or less than 50% win rate is a losing strategy. If a coin flip is all you need then flip a coin and go long or short...
That pitchfork thread you had running was a great thread about channels and how they work.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,205,793
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:40pm Dec 6, 2021 8:40pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Thank you for the apology! Maybe this comment will better help to clarify my intentions concerning this matter. I am all for TA. It is useful. It's just that much of what is taught is garbage. My coin flip challenge derives mostly from frustration caused by nonsense in the Forex market. The sad thing is people have paid a lot of money to learn stuff that doesn't really work. I am one of those people who has paid for worthless trading information, as well as premium...
Your welcome!

I have may own system I post for anyone to see, review, criticize or even use as a couple are. It is a system based on moving averages that I more by accident than anything created. In the past I would have readily criticized it as useless. Currently that system is profitable for me and is so with very little screen time and analysis required. Even so I am not so naive to think that just because I have a system that is working for me that other's are obligated to listen to me. For now my TE and the posted trades speak for themselves more than anything I can say. I've learned that trading results are the only thing respected by other traders in a forum where everyone wants to be an expert.
  • #1,205,794
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:40pm Dec 6, 2021 8:40pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Risk management is what makes any trader, whether in a bank or in a bedroom, profitable. I think what you are really looking is a way to systematically approach the market that you can trust. There is no certainty. Engineers tend to make terrible traders because they are looking for perfection. I am sure you know that martingale methods have a win rate usually around 90%, but eventually you are going to blow up. This is because "losers average losers." Nothing new there. How do I refine my strategy, or better yet, process? I do it by being...
You said it spot on, bro!! Nothing to talk about. It's all individual learning, based on your ability to comprehend your environment, and get ahead in the battlefield without getting killed!! One inch at a time!! 1 step back, 2 steps forward!
You cannot fail if you never give up.
  • #1,205,795
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:47pm Dec 6, 2021 8:47pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Risk management is what makes any trader, whether in a bank or in a bedroom, profitable. I think what you are really looking is a way to systematically approach the market that you can trust. There is no certainty. Engineers tend to make terrible traders because they are looking for perfection. I am sure you know that martingale methods have a win rate usually around 90%, but eventually you are going to blow up. This is because "losers average losers." Nothing new there. How do I refine my strategy, or better yet, process? I do it by being...

Thanks. While pitchforks aren't really about channels (like many erroneously assume) I appreciate the comment. I enjoyed that phase of my trading for several years but in the end the time required for analysis was somewhat consuming. I tried VSA for a bit and again it was something that was becoming again rather consuming. Now I'm in this MA system which I myself find hard to believe that I'm actually exclusively trading with now. Go figure.
  • #1,205,796
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:50pm Dec 6, 2021 8:50pm
This thread is becoming everything but trading. It is like a dump site thread.
  • #1,205,797
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:52pm Dec 6, 2021 8:52pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Thanks. While pitchforks aren't really about channels (like many erroneously assume) I appreciate the comment. I enjoyed that phase of my trading for several years but in the end the time required for analysis was somewhat consuming. I tried VSA for a bit and again it was something that was becoming again rather consuming. Now I'm in this MA system which I myself find hard to believe that I'm actually exclusively trading with now. Go figure.
So from what you are saying, it appears you are more of a turtle trader. I can relate to that. I prefer trading higher time frames. You don't get as many trades, of course, but sometimes less is more.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,798
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:53pm Dec 6, 2021 8:53pm
Quoting Techanalyst
This thread is becoming everything but trading. It is like a dump site thread.
Like you haven't flooded the thread with stuff unrelated to trading.

If you don't like it, you know where the door is.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,799
  • Dec 6, 2021 8:58pm Dec 6, 2021 8:58pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} So from what you are saying, it appears you are more of a turtle trader. I can relate to that. I prefer trading higher time frames. You don't get as many trades, of course, but sometimes less is more.
My thread is here with the system:
1117461-the-thinking-is-optional-system

Don't think it is turtle trading but I could be wrong.
  • #1,205,800
  • Dec 6, 2021 9:01pm Dec 6, 2021 9:01pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Thanks. While pitchforks aren't really about channels (like many erroneously assume) I appreciate the comment. I enjoyed that phase of my trading for several years but in the end the time required for analysis was somewhat consuming. I tried VSA for a bit and again it was something that was becoming again rather consuming. Now I'm in this MA system which I myself find hard to believe that I'm actually exclusively trading with now. Go figure.
See, that is why I come here. You learn something new every day! They looked like channels to me, but I did not look all that hard either. I am way too lazy to draw pitchforks and then figure out what they are trying to tell me.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
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