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  • #1,205,761
  • Dec 6, 2021 1:22pm Dec 6, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I would rather flip a coin against a person's entries to test the validity of his or her strategy.
Don't reinvent the wheel. This was checked already at the program level. Random position management. This is the road to nowhere.
  • #1,205,762
  • Dec 6, 2021 1:37pm Dec 6, 2021 1:37pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Hypothetically let's say my announced strategy says to sell. Then you flip your coin and it will either come up heads or tails. So what does heads mean and what does to tails mean? Do you actually take the other side of the trade if it is opposite my trade? I think you need to give detailed specifics.
Heads for buy, and tails for sell.

It could be that the coin toss ends up in favor of your decision. Suppose you inform me, in advance (this is why a set time is needed), that you are going to sell at a specific price. I will flip a coin. If it ends up tails, then I could sell with you at that price. If it ends up heads, then I could buy at that price.

However, it is not necessary for me to take a real trade, as it's not about me winning more trades than you, but about you proving your strategy is better than a coin toss.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,763
  • Dec 6, 2021 1:39pm Dec 6, 2021 1:39pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} Don't reinvent the wheel. This was checked already at the program level. Random position management. This is the road to nowhere.
You are missing the point. And I am tired of explaining it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,764
  • Dec 6, 2021 2:01pm Dec 6, 2021 2:01pm
Quoting Robinhood1
shorting gbpchf to around 12050. If goes beyond 12287 iŽll be closing it {image}
closed
POSTMASTER
  • #1,205,765
  • Dec 6, 2021 2:05pm Dec 6, 2021 2:05pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} I have closed my profit long orders 15 pips away from target(80.02) and shorted positions to cover some loosing buys i had from last week plus other short positions targeting 78.00. I will open long positions at 78.00 and expect to close all buys in profit. Lets see
80.045 peaked possibly
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POSTMASTER
  • #1,205,766
  • Dec 6, 2021 2:15pm Dec 6, 2021 2:15pm
Quoting Robinhood1
shorting gbpchf to around 12050. If goes beyond 12287 iŽll be closing it {image}
I closed it but if it drops to 12050 will be a good pattern to watch next time. Observation key to discovery
POSTMASTER
  • #1,205,767
  • Dec 6, 2021 2:58pm Dec 6, 2021 2:58pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} You are missing the point. And I am tired of explaining it.
Your right, I just expressed what I think about it.
Time is very expensive, spend it on it. Maybe I'm wrong, and maybe I don't understand something.
  • #1,205,768
  • Dec 6, 2021 3:13pm Dec 6, 2021 3:13pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote}...Time is very expensive, spend it on it...
You do what you want with your time, and I will do what I want with my time.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,769
  • Dec 6, 2021 4:37pm Dec 6, 2021 4:37pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I would rather flip a coin against a person's entries to test the validity of his or her strategy. Lol This is what is needed: 1. the trader must reveal his or her strategy (must be an actual strategy based on technicals, not a guesstimate) 2. the trader must stick with the same strategy for 100 trades 3. the trader must share his or her entry price, stop loss, and take profit 4. 100 trades must be completed no more than 1 year from the time of the first trade I would then use this tool to see if their...
So, if it took me 10 attempts -10 pips each to establish 3 positions that capture the range of a monthly candle that is 300 pips then my win rate is 30%. Far worse than a coin flip. And yet, I would make money in that scenario. No scalping needed. I am under the impression that the reason we trade is to make money. Am I missing your point somehow?
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,205,770
  • Dec 6, 2021 6:01pm Dec 6, 2021 6:01pm
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  • #1,205,771
  • Dec 6, 2021 6:13pm Dec 6, 2021 6:13pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,205,772
  • Dec 6, 2021 6:30pm Dec 6, 2021 6:30pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} So, if it took me 10 attempts -10 pips each to establish 3 positions that capture the range of a monthly candle that is 300 pips then my win rate is 30%. Far worse than a coin flip. And yet, I would make money in that scenario. No scalping needed. I am under the impression that the reason we trade is to make money. Am I missing your point somehow?
The point is maybe your strategy isn't really doing for you what you think it is doing for you. Maybe you are just getting lucky, and your risk-management is what is making things work out for you. Have you ever thought of that? If your strategy is no better than a coin toss, then how is it actually helping you? You might end up with better results just flipping a coin and applying good risk-management to your trade. Maybe it's just mere belief that your strategy is actually giving you an advantage. You won't know unless you test it.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,773
  • Dec 6, 2021 6:54pm Dec 6, 2021 6:54pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Heads for buy, and tails for sell. It could be that the coin toss ends up in favor of your decision. Suppose you inform me, in advance (this is why a set time is needed), that you are going to sell at a specific price. I will flip a coin. If it ends up tails, then I could sell with you at that price. If it ends up heads, then I could buy at that price. However, it is not necessary for me to take a real trade, as it's not about me winning more trades than you, but about you proving your strategy is better than a coin toss.
Sorry, I'm out. You have no skin in the game. You've hypothesized that TA is essentially useless so I think you and only you are the one that needs to prove that assertion, not everyone else. Your assumption that 50% is the benchmark for what defines whether or not a strategy is better than a "coin-flip" is deeply flawed.


You can easily perform this experiment on your own. Most if not all of us that use TA are not interested in trying to prove it doesn't work. Sorry.
  • #1,205,774
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:05pm Dec 6, 2021 7:05pm
Quoting here2there
Maybe it's just mere belief that your strategy is actually giving you an advantage.
I do not think my strategy gives me an edge. I can remember where you are right now, looking for edge. I had to stop wasting time coding indicators, trying settings, trying timeframes, backtesting, and start looking at price and how people behave at certain areas on a chart. In short, I actually had to start trading. The day I stopped looking for this "edge" is the day I started making money.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,205,775
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:06pm Dec 6, 2021 7:06pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Sorry, I'm out. You have no skin in the game. You've hypothesized that TA is essentially useless so I think you and only you are the one that needs to prove that assertion, not everyone else. Your assumption that 50% is the benchmark for what defines whether or not a strategy is better than a "coin-flip" is deeply flawed. You can easily perform this experiment on your own. Most if not all of us that use TA are not interested in trying to prove it doesn't work. Sorry.
I never said TA is useless. And it is not my objective to prove TA doesn't work. You should ask questions before jumping to conclusions.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,776
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:09pm Dec 6, 2021 7:09pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I never said TA is useless. And it is not my objective to prove TA doesn't work. You should ask questions before jumping to conclusions.
I think you've answered enough questions asked and unasked. I can read between the lines.
  • #1,205,777
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:11pm Dec 6, 2021 7:11pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I do not think my strategy gives me an edge. I can remember where you are right now, looking for edge. I had to stop wasting time coding indicators, trying settings, trying timeframes, backtesting, and start looking at price and how people behave at certain areas on a chart. In short, I actually had to start trading. The day I stopped looking for this "edge" is the day I started making money.
Well said!
  • #1,205,778
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:11pm Dec 6, 2021 7:11pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} I do not think my strategy gives me an edge. I can remember where you are right now, looking for edge. I had to stop wasting time coding indicators, trying settings, trying timeframes, backtesting, and start looking at price and how people behave at certain areas on a chart. In short, I actually had to start trading. The day I stopped looking for this "edge" is the day I started making money.
But how can you refine your strategy if you don't test it? How can you get more out of trading without knowing what is actually working for you? If your win rate is less than 50%, then I think it is your risk-management that is really making you profitable.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,779
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:12pm Dec 6, 2021 7:12pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I think you've answered enough questions asked and unasked. I can read between the lines.
Then why you are making false conclusions about my intentions?

Read the last thing I said in this comment about TA.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,780
  • Dec 6, 2021 7:20pm Dec 6, 2021 7:20pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} But how can you refine your strategy if you don't test it? How can you get more out of trading without knowing what is actually working for you? If your win rate is less than 50%, then I think it is your risk-management that is really making you profitable.
If my win rate is less than 50%, which it usually is by the way, then this doesn't mean that my TA is not working and the only factor causing it to work is merely money management. Your coin flip is an inappropriate test to prove that one's TA is not a major factor along with money management in the profitability of one's strategy. As I've said before TA without money management in a strategy that is 50%, greater than 50% or less than 50% win rate is a losing strategy.

If a coin flip is all you need then flip a coin and go long or short randomly on any pair and apply your money management. This is really what you are doing.

Your coin flip is a poor way to improve one's strategy not to mention cumbersome.
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