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  • #1,205,661
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:01pm Dec 5, 2021 6:01pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} A simple strategy that's probably profitable: Instrument: indices like S&P 500, DJI and Dax 40 Long only Buy when price close > 20 MA > 200 MA, sell when 20 MA closes under 200 MA The problem is writing an algorithm for your stop loss level and so on. I mean the price can fall a lot before the 20 MA reacts to it. The other problem is that bear markets in these indices are usually very brief, and you'll lose money by shorting them. Forex strategy? Take a long term position. I've never seen any profit arise from selling minor swings in FX....
Bill Williams described SL in his "Trading Chaos" gnome:
We place the airbag one minimum price or tick deviation, above / below,
than the highest / lowest value of the second bar back from the considered one,
taken from a time period of a higher level
(or an additional one bar back, which has the highest peak at the same time
and highest-neck bottom or smallest peak and smallest bottom compared to the bar in question)
  • #1,205,662
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:03pm Dec 5, 2021 6:03pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} Bill Williams described SL in his "Trading Chaos" gnome: We place the airbag one minimum price or tick deviation, above / below, than the highest / lowest value of the second bar back from the considered one, taken from a time period of a higher level (or an additional one bar back, which has the highest peak at the same time and highest-neck bottom or smallest peak and smallest bottom compared to the bar in question)

Then this strategy is invalidated; the 20 SMA crosses 200 SMA infrequently, and the idea is to let your profits run (it can stay this way for months or years).

If you are getting out at a precise stop loss, you are then waiting months/years before getting back into a trade.

Totally alien concept and I've never been able to get it to work. Oscillators are garbage too.
  • #1,205,663
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:04pm Dec 5, 2021 6:04pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} Market just opened. And there was a gap but was filled quick upon opening.
the American session will put everything in its place.
  • #1,205,664
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:07pm Dec 5, 2021 6:07pm
Quoting forex-wolf
Nothing interesting today, the euro will be consolidating, I think it will not work much. I thought there would be a gap. This is complete nonsense. Let's go down a little, then up {image}
You won't see it in higher time frame but here's the gap.. in between purple line.
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Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,665
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:09pm Dec 5, 2021 6:09pm
Apropos,

Has anyone here ever run a proper backtest analysis (using code and covering long time periods) on their FX strategy, or is it always 'eyeballing' and 'shooting from the hip'?
  • #1,205,666
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:11pm Dec 5, 2021 6:11pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} Bill Williams described SL in his "Trading Chaos" gnome: We place the airbag one minimum price or tick deviation, above / below, than the highest / lowest value of the second bar back from the considered one, taken from a time period of a higher level (or an additional one bar back, which has the highest peak at the same time and highest-neck bottom or smallest peak and smallest bottom compared to the bar in question)
these books should be discarded.I would do that.
  • #1,205,667
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:13pm Dec 5, 2021 6:13pm
Long-term position-holding on EUR/USD, looks profitable to me?
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  • #1,205,668
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:14pm Dec 5, 2021 6:14pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} these books should be discarded.I would do that.
Total snake oil. Show me any retail trader who makes consistent profit with such precise scalping.
  • #1,205,669
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:14pm Dec 5, 2021 6:14pm
sold on horizontal price break. not sure where its going just will close on any vol spike.

12905 would be good enough.
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In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,205,670
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:18pm Dec 5, 2021 6:18pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Total snake oil. Show me any retail trader who makes consistent profit with such precise scalping.
OK.
think what you want.
then over time you will realize how the market works.
good luck.
  • #1,205,671
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:29pm Dec 5, 2021 6:29pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} My win rate is around 40%, I look at market structure to determine 55/45 probability. I lose more than I win, but wins are bigger than my losers, and I press trends. Just chiming in.
I have a similar win rate. Actually it is sometimes lower. I also "press" the trends. I like that word, "press".

Win rate cannot be considered in a vacuum. Does it not matter how many pips one wins on any given trade? Can one not win 9 trades in a row winning 2 pips per trade for a total of 18 pips then lose 30 pips on the 10th trade? Win rate is meaningless by itself including the oft sited 50% win rate being thrown about by some as some sort of benchmark that decides whether one has a so-called "edge" or not. This is purely arbitrary rhetoric. This "edge" is just another name for a method, system or strategy that is producing a positive result for a trader using a combination of market knowledge, R:R and win rate.

Money management is essential to any trading method regardless if one has a 10% win rate or a 90% win rate. Any win rate will fail without proper money management. If one must use this elusive term "edge" then use it to describe a trader who is profitable because he applies rigid money management to a trading method that he also applies a set of rigid rules.

Sadly, and really quite arrogantly, some failed traders decided that their failure applies across the board and they go about trashing everything from technical analysis to fundamental analysis and everything in between.

To those I say there are some of us actually trading successfully. In my case it's not an edge. Just thoughtful, prudent application of a set of rules to specific market conditions that present themselves as shown by a reasonable set of indicators I've found beneficial for that task. Nothing more and nothing less.
  • #1,205,672
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:35pm Dec 5, 2021 6:35pm
Sell button triggered on eur,usd,gbp against jpy.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,673
  • Dec 5, 2021 6:57pm Dec 5, 2021 6:57pm
Nah, 20 > 200 strategy doesn't work for any FX or DAX 40.

I don't see any strategies with a win rate of 40% over a long period of time. Can someone post a link to verifiable evidence?
  • #1,205,674
  • Dec 5, 2021 7:00pm Dec 5, 2021 7:00pm
Heads buy, tails sell!
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  • #1,205,675
  • Dec 5, 2021 7:00pm Dec 5, 2021 7:00pm
Quoting MrBullBear
It's not moving yet but i am siding with the bear.
Added another one..
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Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,676
  • Dec 5, 2021 7:16pm Dec 5, 2021 7:16pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
sold on horizontal price break. not sure where its going just will close on any vol spike. 12905 would be good enough. {image}
loads of standing orders under friday's low. seems a good a price to reverse as any. 12667
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,205,677
  • Dec 5, 2021 7:42pm Dec 5, 2021 7:42pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Money management is essential to any trading method regardless if one has a 10% win rate or a 90% win rate. Any win rate will fail without proper money management.
This is a cliche, a bit like 'buy low and sell high'.

You can have a money management system but if you don't make money from trading then even the best money management system in the world won't stop you losing money.

There is a lot of vested interest in selling technical analysis to retail traders; anyone who was consistently profitable trading would never come on to a forum and become defensive about TA. (Which I have never heard a professional trader say a good word about.) People who do that clearly have some kind of ulterior motive.
  • #1,205,678
  • Dec 5, 2021 8:18pm Dec 5, 2021 8:18pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
Nah, 20 > 200 strategy doesn't work for any FX or DAX 40. I don't see any strategies with a win rate of 40% over a long period of time. Can someone post a link to verifiable evidence?
You will not get what you are looking for because every strategy is self developed and specific to the trader. As far as verifiable evidence goes do you understand that you are an avatar who wants someone to pay for an audit and post trades just for you? Why?

No one can teach you how to trade. It is only seat time that works for that.

Quoting JauntyLoon
Heads buy, tails sell! {image}
While you may see heads buy, tails sell, I see an established downward trend with a double top at the pivot. The trend is late, so my position size will account for that.

See the difference? Probably not.

Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} This is a cliche, a bit like 'buy low and sell high'. You can have a money management system but if you don't make money from trading then even the best money management system in the world won't stop you losing money. There is a lot of vested interest in selling technical analysis to retail traders; anyone who was consistently profitable trading would never come on to a forum and become defensive about TA. (Which I have never heard a professional trader say a good word about.) People who do that clearly have some kind of ulterior motive....
You are about halfway there. You should buy low and sell high in a trading range only. If you can't tell whether or not you are in a trend, then you are in a trading range. I agree with you about TA, it should come as a decision point and used dead last in your trading routine.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #1,205,679
  • Dec 5, 2021 8:39pm Dec 5, 2021 8:39pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} I have a similar win rate. Actually it is sometimes lower. I also "press" the trends. I like that word, "press". Win rate cannot be considered in a vacuum. Does it not matter how many pips one wins on any given trade? Can one not win 9 trades in a row winning 2 pips per trade for a total of 18 pips then lose 30 pips on the 10th trade? Win rate is meaningless by itself including the oft sited 50% win rate being thrown about by some as some sort of benchmark that decides whether one has a so-called "edge" or not. This is purely arbitrary rhetoric....
You are missing the point.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,680
  • Dec 5, 2021 8:59pm Dec 5, 2021 8:59pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} ...While you may see heads buy, tails sell, I see an established downward trend with a double top at the pivot...
Then you trade the trend until the trend is no more. It doesn't take much thought.

But even if you trade the trend, there is no guarantee it won't surprise you with a sudden move against you. Just because you see a trend, or some other pattern, it doesn't mean you are going to get it right.

But let's suppose you put all of that thought into doing TA, and pull the trigger, and then go long, and someone just flips a coin and ends up taking the same trade. You could both win. The difference is you had to put more effort into making the decision. Yet your decision amounted to nothing better than a coin toss. Thus, you don't have a real edge.

And if your win rate is less than 50%, it's possible that someone could actually do better by flipping a coin. So what good is all of that TA doing for you if you can't achieve a win rate above 50%? Is it really helping you, or do you just believe it is helping you?

Unless you have a real edge, you don't know that what you are doing is actually better than flipping a coin.

That's not to say TA is useless. It has its purpose.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
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