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  • #1,205,641
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:46pm Dec 5, 2021 2:46pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Because it's addictive, I mean trading. Like gambling. Most people come on here to get validation for their own ideas, which is also a very human thing.
I almost wish the brokers would ban me from CFDs/spread betting, I mean going on three years of losses - it's just madness to keep trying.
  • #1,205,642
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:51pm Dec 5, 2021 2:51pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Because it's addictive, I mean trading. Like gambling. Most people come on here to get validation for their own ideas, which is also a very human thing.
well, I'm not addicted to it for sure.
i only do it for money.
i hate like shit this FX.
  • #1,205,643
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:56pm Dec 5, 2021 2:56pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Because it's addictive, I mean trading. Like gambling. Most people come on here to get validation for their own ideas, which is also a very human thing.
I completely agree with you, we are talking about this. Instead of looking at other developers' new strategies and starting to learn programming, we are sitting here. Because we are too lazy to do it. They understand the logic, they come up with something. In any case, we want to get something alien. But just don't start doing something yourself. We shout, we swear, we say that we are smart and promising. In fact, we are very pathetic. We are not capable of anything. It's easier for us after a hard day to write nasty things to each other on the forum, let off steam.
  • #1,205,644
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:04pm Dec 5, 2021 3:04pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} well, I'm not addicted to it for sure. i only do it for money. i hate like shit this FX.
Was there a time when you loved it? What happened? I love it still, but tiny bit less every year.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,205,645
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:07pm Dec 5, 2021 3:07pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} I completely agree with you, we are talking about this. Instead of looking at other developers' new strategies and starting to learn programming, we are sitting here. Because we are too lazy to do it. They understand the logic, they come up with something. In any case, we want to get something alien. But just don't start doing something yourself. We shout, we swear, we say that we are smart and promising. In fact, we are very pathetic. We are not capable of anything. It's easier for us after a hard day to write nasty things to each other...
well i don't totally agree with that.
because I'm sure who's been on the forum for a long time has tried all the strategies and systems already he could only access.
believe me.
  • #1,205,646
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:08pm Dec 5, 2021 3:08pm
Quoting KeenPips
Here's my take on the EURUSD, from the technical perspective of a medium-term swing trader. The EURUSD market is bearish. But, presently, on the daily time frame, price action made a northward pullback from the 1.12300/1.11660 demand zone (blue) that has been in place since July 15, 2020. The zone is also nestled to a significant horizontal support on the monthly time frame. Technically, we may see further northward move for liquidity grab before a southward rotation. I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper. KP {image}
if i look at friday's action in isolation i'd be a seller for sure.

as ever we'll see.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,205,647
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:12pm Dec 5, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} I almost wish the brokers would ban me from CFDs/spread betting, I mean going on three years of losses - it's just madness to keep trying.
Some brokers, if you tell them you have a gambling problem, they will terminate your account. Problem is of course, you can always go elsewhere.

I don't know you, but if you are serious and they are losses that cause problems, I am wishing you the best from the bottom of my heart. I know of the struggle but from outside of it. I have an uncle who, after cashing in his pension, loses it in one night, and for the last 30+ years. He does not live outside of that one night. He lost everything. Even the things one never even imagine could be lost, like children and parents. Such a terrible disease, at its worst.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,205,648
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:18pm Dec 5, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} well, I'm not addicted to it for sure. i only do it for money. i hate like shit this FX.

I also hate it.

But looking at the world right now, I might have far worse things to worry about soon (I'm not vaxxed so I will end up in a concentration camp soon!)
  • #1,205,649
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:20pm Dec 5, 2021 3:20pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} I completely agree with you, we are talking about this. Instead of looking at other developers' new strategies and starting to learn programming, we are sitting here. Because we are too lazy to do it. They understand the logic, they come up with something. In any case, we want to get something alien. But just don't start doing something yourself. We shout, we swear, we say that we are smart and promising. In fact, we are very pathetic. We are not capable of anything. It's easier for us after a hard day to write nasty things to each other...

Hey. I have thought about quant systems and even bought a book about it (I can share the link to anyone who is interested).

It only covers one technical system, using Python (it's heavily weighted towards academic finance, Markowtiz and all that b*llocks). The problem is that the strategy of going short on S&P 500 hasn't worked in the last couple of downturns because the S&P 500 bottomed out so quickly. The last time shorting the S&P 500 worked was back in the financial crisis 2008 - 2011.

I don't have a programming mind to turn my thoughts into algorithms. I guess that means I am one of the 'worthless people' who is marked down for extinction in the Brave New World.
  • #1,205,650
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:26pm Dec 5, 2021 3:26pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} there were battles until 2011. You just did not catch this time. if(x != y) ObjectDelete("mail");
Before you disagree, why don't you conduct thorough study and observe keenly its behavior to achieve deeper understanding of the market. Only then you will agree.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FB_IMG_1635567106231.jpg Size: 50 KB
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,651
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:30pm Dec 5, 2021 3:30pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} The last time shorting the S&P 500 worked was back in the financial crisis 2008 - 2011.
So pretty much the best you can hope for is to time a bottom and get out near a top (or at least when you've made profit). Then get back in long when the moving average is sloping upwards etc.

Leveraged trading is a catastrophe. It's all about TIMING. If you set a stop loss it WILL get hit. So you'd better have tens of thousands in margin to absorb the loss before it turns back in your favour.

Total f*king disaster. Ordinary people can hope for no better than 10% annualised returns over a 5 - 10 year period.
  • #1,205,652
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:32pm Dec 5, 2021 3:32pm
Quoting mtako
{quote} Was there a time when you loved it? What happened? I love it still, but tiny bit less every year.
I never loved it, I always saw it as a puzzle to solve.
  • #1,205,653
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:33pm Dec 5, 2021 3:33pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} Hey. I have thought about quant systems and even bought a book about it (I can share the link to anyone who is interested). It only covers one technical system, using Python (it's heavily weighted towards academic finance, Markowtiz and all that b*llocks). The problem is that the strategy of going short on S&P 500 hasn't worked in the last couple of downturns because the S&P 500 bottomed out so quickly. The last time shorting the S&P 500 worked was back in the financial crisis 2008 - 2011. I don't have a programming mind to turn my thoughts...
Just not quantum physics, you know how many professors, mathematicians and other specialties from the field of science came to the MQL forum, how many articles were written. And where are all these professors, and the minds of the human mind. How many indicators we have written for them for free. Nothing sensible came of this. The market he likes simple things.
The MQL language is simple, you can master it in a couple of months, since there is something to look at. There are only codes on the MQL. You just need to start small yourself. No one will help you, everyone goes this way on their own.
  • #1,205,654
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:41pm Dec 5, 2021 3:41pm
Nothing interesting today, the euro will be consolidating, I think it will not work much. I thought there would be a gap. This is complete nonsense.
Let's go down a little, then up
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  • #1,205,655
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:45pm Dec 5, 2021 3:45pm
Quoting forex-wolf
Nothing interesting today, the euro will be consolidating, I think it will not work much. I thought there would be a gap. This is complete nonsense. Let's go down a little, then up {image}
Market just opened. And there was a gap but was filled quick upon opening.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,656
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:48pm Dec 5, 2021 3:48pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} Just not quantum physics, you know how many professors, mathematicians and other specialties from the field of science came to the MQL forum, how many articles were written. And where are all these professors, and the minds of the human mind. How many indicators we have written for them for free. Nothing sensible came of this. The market he likes simple things. The MQL language is simple, you can master it in a couple of months, since there is something to look at. There are only codes on the MQL. You just need to start small yourself. No...

A simple strategy that's probably profitable:

Instrument: indices like S&P 500, DJI and Dax 40
Long only
Buy when price close > 20 MA > 200 MA, sell when 20 MA closes under 200 MA

The problem is writing an algorithm for your stop loss level and so on. I mean the price can fall a lot before the 20 MA reacts to it. The other problem is that bear markets in these indices are usually very brief, and you'll lose money by shorting them.

Forex strategy? Take a long term position. I've never seen any profit arise from selling minor swings in FX.
  • #1,205,657
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:57pm Dec 5, 2021 3:57pm
It's not moving yet but i am siding with the bear.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,658
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:59pm Dec 5, 2021 3:59pm
Quoting JauntyLoon
{quote} A simple strategy that's probably profitable: Instrument: indices like S&P 500, DJI and Dax 40 Long only Buy when price close > 20 MA > 200 MA, sell when 20 MA closes under 200 MA The problem is writing an algorithm for your stop loss level and so on. I mean the price can fall a lot before the 20 MA reacts to it. The other problem is that bear markets in these indices are usually very brief, and you'll lose money by shorting them. Forex strategy? Take a long term position. I've never seen any profit arise from selling minor swings in FX....
well dude, you still have work to do.
because I see what you rely on.
The basic idea of the MA will not be good in this form.
but you know.
  • #1,205,659
  • Dec 5, 2021 4:00pm Dec 5, 2021 4:00pm
I have my first weeks setup, scalping south, back to the bottom, but ignoring it, bed time !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,205,660
  • Dec 5, 2021 4:00pm Dec 5, 2021 4:00pm
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} well dude, you still have work to do. because I see what you rely on. The basic idea of the MA will not be good in this form. but you know.

That's what the 'quant' strategy in the Python for Finance book does too. Except it uses 42 day SMA > 252 day SMA and requires the 42 day SMA to be 50 points or so above the 252 before committing (for S&P 500)

It does work and it's better than buy and hold; but it leaves you with no options during a bear trend when the bear trends are over and done with in such a short space of time. It does also require you to have the ability to withstand significant drawdowns when trading on leverage.
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