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  • #1,205,601
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:31pm Dec 5, 2021 2:31pm
wow check out livermore family history... truely sad.

On November 28, 1940, just after 5:30 pm, Livermore fatally shot himself with an Automatic Colt Pistol in the cloakroom of The Sherry-Netherland hotel in Manhattan, where he usually had cocktails. Police found a suicide note of eight small handwritten pages in Livermore's personal, leather-bound notebook.[12][19] The note was addressed to Livermore's wife, Harriet (whom Livermore nicknamed "Nina") and it read, "My dear Nina: Can't help it. Things have been bad with me. I am tired of fighting. Can't carry on any longer. This is the only way out. I am unworthy of your love. I am a failure. I am truly sorry, but this is the only way out for me. Love Laurie".[14]
His son, Jesse Livermore Jr., died by suicide in 1975, as did his grandson.[6]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,205,602
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:40pm Dec 5, 2021 2:40pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} To clarify, when I am speaking of having an edge, it is within the context of following a particular strategy. Therefore, it must be a win rate above 50% to prove it's not mere luck. Indeed, if you have good risk-management, you can still come out ahead with a crappy strategy. But that's not the point. What I would like to see is for someone on FF to prove he or she has an actual edge in the Forex market. I doubt anyone would accept the challenge.
Are you looking for someone to give you a strategy to trade?
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,205,603
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:41pm Dec 5, 2021 2:41pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Most people build EA's around strategies they construct. I did the opposite, I let the EA parameters build a strategy and I was absolutely shocked at the results. Until then, I thought it was not possible to get any winning strategy with less than a 30% win rate.
EAs are good for risk-management. But most EAs that follow a particular trading strategy will fail over time.

If it is an EA that follows a hedging strategy, then I can see how it could work out. Unfortunately, such an EA won't work for those of us in the US, due to FIFO rules.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,604
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:47pm Dec 5, 2021 2:47pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Are you looking for someone to give you a strategy to trade?
I am a learner. I am always looking for new ideas to try. But that's not my point. My point mostly has to do with being frustrated with braggers, fake trading gurus selling courses, and holy grail indicators that marketers push. Such people act like they have it all figured out, but I haven't seen any of them prove they have an actual edge in the market.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,605
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:51pm Dec 5, 2021 2:51pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I am a learner. I am always looking for new ideas to try. But that's not my point. My point mostly has to do with being frustrated with braggers, fake trading gurus selling courses, and holy grail indicators that marketers push. Such people act like they have it all figured out, but I haven't seen any of them prove they have an actual edge in the market.
What do you consider an edge?
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,205,606
  • Dec 5, 2021 2:57pm Dec 5, 2021 2:57pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} I am a learner. I am always looking for new ideas to try. But that's not my point. My point mostly has to do with being frustrated with braggers, fake trading gurus selling courses, and holy grail indicators that marketers push. Such people act like they have it all figured out, but I haven't seen any of them prove they have an actual edge in the market.
Now with the release of MT5 with its capabilities, programmers are doing wonders. I'm not even talking about neural networks. It's just that no one will show you. If you are familiar with MT experts, then you should know about robot battles in MQL.
  • #1,205,607
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:00pm Dec 5, 2021 3:00pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} To clarify, when I am speaking of having an edge, it is within the context of following a particular strategy. Therefore, it must be a win rate above 50% to prove it's not mere luck. Indeed, if you have good risk-management, you can still come out ahead with a crappy strategy. But that's not the point. What I would like to see is for someone on FF to prove he or she has an actual edge in the Forex market. I doubt anyone would accept the challenge.
I will say it again, your edge is the right understanding and skill that build base on that understanding. Proof? What proof you want to see to remove your doubt?
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,608
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:06pm Dec 5, 2021 3:06pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} What do you consider an edge?
To prove it's an actual edge and not mere luck, a strategy, in my opinion, should have a win rate above 50% out of at least 100 trades, and should be accompanied with proof of consistent profits. Scalping does not apply.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,609
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:12pm Dec 5, 2021 3:12pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} Now with the release of MT5 with its capabilities, programmers are doing wonders. I'm not even talking about neural networks. It's just that no one will show you. If you are familiar with MT experts, then you should know about robot battles in MQL.
what is robot battles? do you mean competition?
  • #1,205,610
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:18pm Dec 5, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting genadi
{quote} what is robot battles? do you mean competition?
https://www.mql5.com/
  • #1,205,611
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:23pm Dec 5, 2021 3:23pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} I will say it again, your edge is the right understanding and skill that build base on that understanding. Proof? What proof you want to see to remove your doubt?
If your win rate is 50% or less, and you have good risk-management, and you are satisfied with your win rate, then why bother thinking at all about market structure? Why not just flip a coin: heads to buy, and tails to short. Then apply risk-management.

You would probably end up with similar results.

My point is it's more likely that it's your risk management that is making it possible for you to be ahead with a win rate of 50% or less, not some special indicator, or candlestick pattern, or technical analysis.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,612
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:29pm Dec 5, 2021 3:29pm
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  • #1,205,613
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:29pm Dec 5, 2021 3:29pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} If your win rate is 50% or less, and you have good risk-management, and you are satisfied with your win rate, then why bother thinking at all about market structure? Why not just flip a coin: heads to buy, and tails to short. Then apply risk-management. You would probably end up with similar results. My point is it's more likely that it's your risk management that is making it possible for you to be ahead with a win rate of 50% or less, not some special indicator, or candlestick pattern, or mastery of market structure.
That 30, 50, 70% are strategy/method dependent. You can have 70% win rate yet still lose.
Only an idiot knows with certainty to where the market is going.
  • #1,205,614
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:37pm Dec 5, 2021 3:37pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} ...You can have 70% win rate yet still lose.
True! That's why I said it must be coupled with proof of being consistently profitable.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,615
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:40pm Dec 5, 2021 3:40pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{image}
This image doesn't prove what I am asking for. I think you have misunderstood me.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,616
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:41pm Dec 5, 2021 3:41pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} To prove it's an actual edge and not mere luck, a strategy, in my opinion, should have a win rate above 50% out of at least 100 trades, and should be accompanied with proof of consistent profits. Scalping does not apply.
Forgive me all, this is my first post here. For me, and put in the simplest way, it is all in the return to drawdown ratio. Win rate, profit ratio, etc. Taken alone = all too relative. I have strategies that have a high win rate like perhaps here2there, and some that have low win rate, like Tony. The first have much smaller TPs, just to name one distinctive trait. All have minimum 1000+ trades over the last 4-16years, but the majority have had to be regularly optimized in every way.

I have aimed at the lowest return/drawdown when developing my strats so as to have more opportunities to diversify.

We also each have our own values, needs, and also our own definition for what is an "edge" and a successful approach, of which richness I enjoy. This is only from my own limited experience; I am only one lad after all !

Note : even with my best strategies combined complementarily, I do not come close to the success I am seeing around FF. We each have our strengths and weaknesses and can only do the best we can !

Wishing to all a merry merry trading week !

P.S I hope to have a hidden divergence in momentum trade this week or the next on the daily. Would be a breath of fresh air as its been a while !
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #1,205,617
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:44pm Dec 5, 2021 3:44pm
Quoting MrBullBear
{quote} ...You can have 70% win rate yet still lose.
I had an EA built a while back that produced a win rate greater than 80% when back-testing. Unfortunately, it wasn't profitable. Even though the win rate was high, the strategy did not provide an edge.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,205,618
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:52pm Dec 5, 2021 3:52pm
I have shown you only what lies on the surface. The rest is not for you. Nobody will sell it to you or show it to you.
But they are.
It takes years to create a strategy and bring it to its logical conclusion.
You just want to find something by sitting on this forum.
  • #1,205,619
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:55pm Dec 5, 2021 3:55pm
Here's my take on the EURUSD, from the technical perspective of a medium-term swing trader. The EURUSD market is bearish. But, presently, on the daily time frame, price action made a northward pullback from the 1.12300/1.11660 demand zone (blue) that has been in place since July 15, 2020. The zone is also nestled to a significant horizontal support on the monthly time frame. Technically, we may see further northward move for liquidity grab before a southward rotation.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,205,620
  • Dec 5, 2021 3:55pm Dec 5, 2021 3:55pm
Quoting forex-wolf
{quote} https://www.mql5.com/
this is worst link ever

I was coding robots since 2011 with mql4



yet, I have never made successful EA, and i am not sure if it is even possible to make profitable EA
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