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  • #142,841
  • Nov 30, 2021 12:24pm Nov 30, 2021 12:24pm
I was gone for the second half of the day. Meanwhile, PA was one hell of a party to say the least. Now I am going long for 40 pips, TP 1.1375. Don't have much doubt it'll get there easily once the retracement was already this substantial.
  • #142,842
  • Nov 30, 2021 12:32pm Nov 30, 2021 12:32pm
An H1 candle close above 1.1323 means more bullishness.. 27 more minutes for confirmation..

*Meanwhile, 1.13065 is my nearest support on H1..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #142,843
  • Edited 1:55pm Nov 30, 2021 12:41pm | Edited 1:55pm
Meanwhile, on weekly:

The stall around 1.1370 area comes from the weekly pivot (median) line of the falling wedge channel.. If bulls can climb above the dashed red median line of this channel things could flow easier for bulls.. With projection of next week you can see that this week bulls only need to keep it above 1.1350 to achieve such climb above.. Let's see..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #142,844
  • Nov 30, 2021 1:46pm Nov 30, 2021 1:46pm
Hi Ata,
Just to let you know that I'm long EURUSD 1.2108 based on the 'equilibrium' effect off multi-year analysis. For example, looking to the mean of multi-year high and low, my base trade is set at taking minimum risk on trading account to give me plenty of scope to stay long risking 300pips to collect 900pips on tri-monthly chart horizon, and scaling in using trading profit whilst monitoring for aggressive moves up or down especially around Fed Chair /US Treasury testimony and ECB Pres speakeasy. This can be a lot of work to be switched on and alert to major news events and probable outcomes, and of course, it can sometimes be rather boring waiting around just being in 'watch mode' to say the least. However, this approach as a trading idea /strategy gives me time to reflect and also to enjoy the sunshine.
I have enjoyed reading through the 'Thread' and have gained much insight from my fellow traders also going for 'Green', for which I am very grateful.
And to you Ata, many thanks for making the Thread available.
  • #142,845
  • Nov 30, 2021 2:59pm Nov 30, 2021 2:59pm
1.1230 can't hold on
It could be a process like the 2014-2015 fundamental analysis change.
On November 22, 2014, Fed Jellen ended monetary expansion.
2015 March 16 Decline until Dragi initiates monetary expansion in Europe.
March 16 also metals fixed with currencies once a day in London
It was fixed on the Shanghai stock exchange twice a day.
In addition, the Renminbi SDPR was included in the world currency with the IMF.
White-black,
Morning - evening,
Good -bad
IMF-?
(Will bitcoin be excited by March 2022?)
A repeat of 2015.
Is the Martingale period coming again with a narrow band of EURUSD?
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Your risk is your sustenance.
  • #142,846
  • Nov 30, 2021 3:03pm Nov 30, 2021 3:03pm
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  • #142,847
  • Nov 30, 2021 3:22pm Nov 30, 2021 3:22pm
November high low and fibo support resistance and probability for December
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Your risk is your sustenance.
  • #142,848
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:11pm Nov 30, 2021 8:11pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Meanwhile, on weekly: The stall around 1.1370 area comes from the weekly pivot (median) line of the falling wedge channel.. If bulls can climb above the dashed red median line of this channel things could flow easier for bulls.. With projection of next week you can see that this week bulls only need to keep it above 1.1350 to achieve such climb above.. Let's see.. {image}
Yes wedge shape , next move should be big. Before this move comes in play consolidation in between 1.1383 and 1,1224 expected for the week.
Neither a Bro Nor a Pro I am I
  • #142,849
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:15pm Nov 30, 2021 8:15pm
With the increase of ATR comes the increase of target and shortage of sl pips length, one has to be extremely careful about his entry level.

That been said, I am still on the buy the dip scenario.

I have a buy limit @ 1.12550 targeting 1.14026. Sl remains 50 pips
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #142,850
  • Nov 30, 2021 8:50pm Nov 30, 2021 8:50pm
Quoting macdulio
{image}
Wowww! Man woww! What a chart!
  • #142,851
  • Edited Dec 1, 2021 7:18am Nov 30, 2021 8:51pm | Edited Dec 1, 2021 7:18am
Quoting Endoephemera
+100% today. One day I'll tell you about it. The last four ops, all in profit, while asleep.
So, as promised, here's the story. Gather around and let uncle Endoephemera tell you of how he smote the evil bitch EURUSD (it's a "bitch", not a "witch").

Around 05:05 Server Time, I was short to play the c/move before the London up move I expected. Suddenly at 07:00 it began to climb rapidly and my position went underwater, losing about 10% of account. Between 07:30 and 08:20 I came to conclude that it was no tactical expedient and they really were in a hurry to take it up, so I switched sides and longed around 1.131 getting very heavy (70+% of account) as it rose.
But, the evil bitch, after hitting 1.1327, came down deeper than I expected and even, eventually past my long. Fortunately, uncle Ephemera had taken his magic potion (0.5mg Xanax) and was therefore immune to the evil bitch's fear spell.

It kept rising for hours. I expected a target 1.14, but I also expected a mid swing deeper retr. down, so I was accumulating a short hedge that got to total around 20% of the long. Around 12:30 to 14:30 I started to sense that s.thing was off; the retr. wasn't coming off as expected in relation to the imagined target and the timing was off. So I unwound the heavy long on the second rise to 1.137 leaving only 8% of the account long and 2% short.

I knew that the evil bitch wouldn't fall without casting an enticement spell by making a final higher high, so, since my magic potion, allowed me to see right through the bitch's schemes, I left a TP for the long and TPs for the shorts around 1.13. Then I fell asleep, which happens when getting little natural sleep and taking lots of potion.

When I woke up all TPs had executed and I had recovered -7% from Monday, -10% from earlier in the day, and was up 95% on Friday's close, having scored +133% from the day's low.

08:45 ST Short slightly for 20-40 PiPs down before turning up for 1.14+ Pretty standard stuff for me; I'm short because I think it will go up. If it makes a new high I could change my mind.
10:20 Totally unscathed by this up and down move, but flat for now.
11:30 I would build a short on this rise from 1.13. But if it makes a new high I'd drop it without attempting to average it out, so small position.

17:18 Tried shorting then hedged. I'm out with -2.5% on the day. Contradictory signals.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #142,852
  • Nov 30, 2021 9:34pm Nov 30, 2021 9:34pm
Interesting! For the euro / dollar currency pair, the sell swap was negative, and the buy swap was near zero. The swap has changed since today. Now it is positive for selling, and for buying it has almost doubled in the negative direction. Does this mean that brokers predict the growth of the pair in the long term?
  • #142,853
  • Nov 30, 2021 10:29pm Nov 30, 2021 10:29pm
Quoting Destinydim
Interesting! For the euro / dollar currency pair, the sell swap was negative, and the buy swap was near zero. The swap has changed since today. Now it is positive for selling, and for buying it has almost doubled in the negative direction. Does this mean that brokers predict the growth of the pair in the long term?
Where are you reading the swaps? Broker?

I thought it was based on interest rates which don't change often?

Or are they just setting their own?

Here is IC Markets

Attached Image
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #142,854
  • Nov 30, 2021 11:21pm Nov 30, 2021 11:21pm
Quoting Destinydim
Interesting! For the euro / dollar currency pair, the sell swap was negative, and the buy swap was near zero. The swap has changed since today. Now it is positive for selling, and for buying it has almost doubled in the negative direction. Does this mean that brokers predict the growth of the pair in the long term?
Why are people asking this as if it is such a mystery.. I will answer and then I hope we get over this once and for all..

The broker makes money from its own "trader pool".. Every broker can see how many of their own traders are long and how many traders are short.. Now what would you do if you can see these percentages if you have the chance to set swap accordingly? Bingoooo... you set higher swaps towards the majority of your OWN buyers' or sellers' open positions whoever has the majority.. It has nothing to do with predicting.. Just a business decision to squeeze more money out of their members since every broker has the right to set their own swaps as they please.. Some brokers don't change swap so often some change it almost every week.. Every broker has its own agenda..

Let's continue posting around EURUSD.. Thanks
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #142,855
  • Nov 30, 2021 11:24pm Nov 30, 2021 11:24pm
On Daily
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  • #142,856
  • Nov 30, 2021 11:25pm Nov 30, 2021 11:25pm
On 4hrs and 1hr

As long as price stays above 1.1317, then bulls have some momentum towards 1.1350. But it requires a strong support. The support zone is 1.1285 - 1.1320. This 4o pips range is going to give lot of headache both the bears and Bulls.

IMO, for stronger bullish continuation, it needs to retest the support zone @1.12.

Lets see
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  • #142,857
  • Nov 30, 2021 11:38pm Nov 30, 2021 11:38pm
Quoting yvestrcz
I was gone for the second half of the day. Meanwhile, PA was one hell of a party to say the least. Now I am going long for 40 pips, TP 1.1375. Don't have much doubt it'll get there easily once the retracement was already this substantial.
Morning Mates,

Are you still in this one Yvestrcz? If so, wishing you the best with it. It reminds me. If, after I enter an intraday or scalp, my entry point becomes the top of an endless tight Ranging Heaven, I have to adapt. I am only longer-term positions now, but can't Not think of this way too cloudy situation.
Isn't it so hard to time the end of a ranging period, and why we prefer to buy the low and sell the high of it, under these conditions?!

Forgive my morning rambling about the trickery bulls and bears have brought us to deal with this Wednesday ! So hard also to figure out which way it will go first and how much ! Also, after such a disrupting move down, 30s hold as resistance still. A little more and bears will be building up momentum, perhaps only temporarily. Bulls can do the same and take power back anywhere above 1290s Bloody ranging conditions conundrum right !?

For me, right now, for intraday and scalping, the tiniest TP the better, till some new light is shed.

Who knows how this will turn out, and for me for now, neither bulls nor bear have the upper hand anymore for anything <1H.

Quoting mtako
Well done to all above-average patient bears and bulls cashing in and/or protecting their well deserved gains. Bulls evidently still have the intraday control ! Bears, at minimum, need to follow through beyond .1250 or have extremely strong resistance at 1330s and/or 1380s to counter such power! Bears will probably have to be even more patient. Much earlier than thought, Sold here .1306 and, thanks to a much less likely to be triggered counter volatility setup from the 1H. Sell stop 1.12471. Let's see if bears are serious in making this the...
30s held up better than expected up to now.
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #142,858
  • Nov 30, 2021 11:56pm Nov 30, 2021 11:56pm
Based on DAILY, I want to keep it simple: For now as long as 1.1246 area acts supportive I believe bulls will continue higher.. Of course there is still a lot to do for bulls but I see sufficient momentum that can push this back to 1.1600 levels.. Time will tell..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #142,859
  • Dec 1, 2021 12:05am Dec 1, 2021 12:05am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Based on DAILY, I want to keep it simple: For now as long as 1.1246 area acts supportive I believe bulls will continue higher.. Of course there is still a lot to do for bulls but I see sufficient momentum that can push this back to 1.1600 levels.. Time will tell.. {image}
Speaking of the devil

And bulls have their 1st real attempt of the day ! They better take it to make it, or ranging conditions will probably take it all back

First moment of importance of the day for me. Watching closely 1360s reaction here. Usually would be scalping short around here, after a scalp long from the bottom...
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #142,860
  • Dec 1, 2021 12:21am Dec 1, 2021 12:21am
Quoting mtako
{quote} Speaking of the devil And bulls have their 1st real attempt of the day ! They better take it to make it, or ranging conditions will probably take it all back First moment of importance of the day for me. Watching closely 1360s reaction here. Usually would be scalping short around here, after a scalp long from the bottom...
Lol.. The devil is busy.. He is currently on the polar express with Sir Omicron, travelling for a special mission to meet up with Grinch for planning on how to steal the upcoming Christmas..
Focus only on what truly matters!
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