AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1210
Despite euro's break of Tuesday's 1.1227 low to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1187 in New York Wednesday, subsequent rebound suggests consolidation is in store before downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) resumes, however, near term loss of momentum should keep price above 1.1139.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1227 confirms a temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1260/70.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.

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AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 115.32
The greenback's rally this week to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday on renomination of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for a second term and hawkish comments from central bank officials suggests Medium Term uptrend would head to 115.90/00 after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 116.20/30 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Australia capital expenditure, building capex, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany GDP, Gfk consumer sentiment, Italy trade balance.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada average weekly earnings.

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AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1217
Although euro's rebound from Wed's 16-month trough at 1.1187 to 1.1230 yesterday's suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1200/05 holds, stronger retracement towards 1.1155 can't be ruled out, reckon res at 1.1274 should cap upside and yield another fall.

Below 1.1200 would bring re-test of 1.1187, while loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.1139 and bring correction on Monday.

The euro area countries will be releasing a slew of eco. data n we also have many ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session, please refer to our EI page for full details. ECB President Lagarde will speak at a legal conference at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Nov 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.08
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI, Australia retail sales.
Swiss non-farm payrolls, GDP, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
Canada budget balance.

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AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Euro's impressive rally on Fri from 1.1206 to as high as 1.1330 in New York suggests downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) has made a temporary low at Wed's fresh 16-month 1.1187 bottom and despite intra-day retreat, as long as 1.1255 holds, consolidation with upside bias remains for another rise, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1374 and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1255 signals recovery is over and heads back towards 1.1206.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to various EU's sentiment readings at 10:00GMT. We also have several ECB officials scheduled to speak, pay attention to speeches by ECB Vice President de Guindos at 08:30GMT n later ECB President Lagarde at 17:15GMT.

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AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.33
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 on Wednesday, intra-day selloff on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 113.40/50 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition would keep price above 113.00.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be today:
Japan retail sales, Australia business inventories.
Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, Swiss current account, producer prices.
US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1289
Although euro's retreat on Monday to 1.1259 (New York) suggests 1st leg of correction from last Wednesday's 16-month trough at 1.1187 has ended at 1.1330, subsequent rebound in New York signals consolidation with upside bias remains, above 1.1330 would bring stronger retarcement of recent downtrend, however, reckon res at 1.1374 should cap said corrective rise.

A daily close below 1.1255 indicates retracement is over, then price would head back to 1.2206, break, 1.1187 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan unemployment rate, industrial production, construction orders, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Australia building permits, current account, net exports contribution, China NBS manufacturing PMI.
Swiss KOF indicator, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy GDP, CPI, Germany unemployment rate, EU HICP.
Canada GDP, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Nov 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 112.73
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data n we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to release of Chicago PMI n consumer confidence. Fed chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen testify before a Senate Banking Committee hybrid hearing at 15:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1323
Despite euro's selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 in New York on Tuesday after Fed Powell's hawkish comments, subsequent strong rebound signals further choppy trading above Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1187 may continue, however, as long as said Tuesday's high holds, consolidation with downside bias remains.

On the upside, only a daily above 1.1382 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend but reckon 1.1434 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG manufacturing index, manufacturing PMI, GDP, New Zealand building permits, China caixin manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
U.K. BRC shop price index, nationwide house price, Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits and Markit manufacturing PMI.

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AceTraderFx Dec 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.40
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to market-moving ADP private payrolls, then Market mfg PMI, ISM mfg index n last but not least Fed's beige book.
Fed J. Powell will tesitfy again at Capital Hill but market reaction to more of his hawkish remarks is likely to much smaller after Tue's move.

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AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1319
Despite euro's brief but sharp selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 on Tuesday, subsequent rally to 1.1360 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above Nov's 16-month trough at 1.1187 would continue, however, as long as said Tuesday's high holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, a daily close below 1.1303 would head back towards 1.1236.

On the upside, only a daily above 1.1382 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend but reckon res at 1.1434 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, Japan consumer confidence.
Swiss retail sales, Italy unemployment rate, EU producer prices, unemployment rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims.

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AceTraderFx Dec 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.20
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Market is keenly awaiting release of key U.S. jobs report on Fri n today, the only data due out are weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak, please refer to our EI page for details.
After Fed chair J. Powell's 2 consecutive days of testimonies on Capital Hill n his official removal on Fed's perception of U.S. inflation is no longer 'transitory', traders are unlikely to react to comments by other FOMC members.

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AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1297
Despite euro's daily choppy sideways swings following early selloff from 1.1382 to 1.1236 on Tuesday, as long as 1.1360 (reaction high Wednesday) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains ahead of key U.S. jobs report later today, below 1.1259 would head back towards 1.1236.

Only above 1.1360 risks re-test of 1.1382 but break there needed to extend corrective rise from November's 11.1187 bottom to 1.1400/10.

On the data front, we have data dump in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to German n EU's Markit services PMIs n EU's retail sales as weaker-than-expected readings would trigger another round of euro selling. ECB President Lagarde will speak at a Reuters conference at 08:30GMT and then at 13:00GMT, ECB Chief Economist Lane is scheduled to speak at a ECB confernce at 13:00GMT

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AceTraderFx Dec 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.42
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests MT uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, Japan services PMI, China caixin services PMI,
France budget balance, industrial output, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.
U.S. Non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Canada employment change, unemployment rate and labor productivity rate.

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AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1293
Despite euro's intra-day selloff from 1.1333 to 1.1267 in post-NFP New York on Friday, subsequent strong rebound on falling US yields suggests further choppy sideways swings inside recent 1.1382-1.1236 broad range would continue, as long as 1.1350/60 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1267, 1.1236.

On the upside, only above 1.1360 risks re-test of 1.1382 but break there needed to extend corrective rise from Nov's 1.1187 bottom to 1.1400/10 later this week.

On the data front, we have German industrial orders, then Italy's retails n EU's Sentix investors' sentiment index. There is a Eurogroup meeting in Brissels n ECB President Lagarde n ECB board member Panetta will particiapte in the meeting.

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AceTraderFx Dec 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.17
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

Data to be released today:
Germany industrial orders, Italy retail sales, EU Sentix index and U.K. Markit construction PMI on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1280
Yesterday's erratic fall and then re-test of Friday's post-NFP low at 1.1267 suggests choppy swings inside recent established broad range of 1.1382-1.1236 would continue with downside bias, however, only below lower level would retain bearishness for weakness to 1.1306 later.

On the upside, only above 1.1333 (Friday high) shifts risk to upside for another rise to 1.1355/60.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia AIG services index, house price index, RBA interest rate decision, Japan all household spending, coincident index, leading indicator, Swiss unemployment rate.
U.K. Halifax house prices, Germany industrial output, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, EU employment, GDP, ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. international trade balance, labor costs, productivity, redbook, Canada trade balance, exports, imports and Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx Dec 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.67
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.00 Monday and intra-day break below there on active safe-haven buying in jpy due to renewed Covid variant concerns suggests Medium Term uptrend has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 112.60/70, however, oversold condition would keep price above 112.30/40.

On the upside, only above 115.03 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and risk stronger gain to 115.51 again.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data which are unlikely to move the market as focus is on U.S. stocks n treasury yields, pls refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Dec 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1277
Despite euro's intra-day selloff from 1.1299 and then a brief break of last week's 1.1236 low to 1.1229 in New York, lack of follow-through selling and subsequent rebound suggests further choppy swings above November's 16-month 1.1187 bottom may continue.

On the upside, only above 1.1299 would risk stronger recovery to 1.1320/30 before retreat while below 1.1229 needed to revive bearish prospect of weakness towards 1.1187 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, GDP, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, China exports, imports, trade balance.
France non-farm payrolls, Italy Market Holiday.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, JOLTS job opening and Canada interest rate decision.

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AceTraderFx Dec 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Dec 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.45
The greenback's rise to 113.77 on Tuesday due to a rally in U.S. stocks and Treasury yields suggests the 1st leg of correction from November's fresh 3-year peak at 115.51 has ended at 112.54 last Tuesday and intra-day weakness would yield consolidation before prospect of another rise towards 114.20, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 114.50/60 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.08/10 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 112.70/80.

On the data front, U.S. will later release second-tier eco. data starting with MBA mortgage applications n then JOLTS job openings.

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