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It's Unreliable

  • #301
  • Nov 23, 2021 2:37am Nov 23, 2021 2:37am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} They don't NEED to have a large edge, and in fact that would work against them. Who the fuck wants to play a game they intuitively see/feel/know they can never possibly beat?
Casinos are not about making money anyway. You pay for experience and excitement. Let's go to Trump casinos and 'lose' all kinds of money to support him. Completely untraceable.
  • #302
  • Nov 25, 2021 1:25pm Nov 25, 2021 1:25pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Exactly. But if 2+2=17.76 or/and stochastic show oversold areas then your rock must jump to the moon instead of falling to the ground. So where I'm wrong? That 2+2=4, but not >17? That RSI/stoch are not showing oversold areas? That your support and resistance levels with no volume data used are pure bullshit? That repainting indicators are only good to sell mentoring on youtube? Where my mistake exactly?
Your mistake is that before you dont know how to use volume data you claim that you are succeful in trading with indicators, now you use volume,and say that indicators is bullshit. Its same like 2+2=17
  • #303
  • Nov 25, 2021 4:02pm Nov 25, 2021 4:02pm
Quoting ficibald
{quote} Your mistake is that before you dont know how to use volume data you claim that you are succeful in trading with indicators, now you use volume,and say that indicators is bullshit. Its same like 2+2=17
Never claimed that. I just said that calculations posted are wrong. And that the difference is too big not to mention it.
Observer effect
  • #304
  • Nov 25, 2021 7:42pm Nov 25, 2021 7:42pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Never claimed that. I just said that calculations posted are wrong. And that the difference is too big not to mention it.
True. I guess this little tit for tat is going to go on forever
Find The Pain Points On Your Chart & Trade Off Those Levels
  • #305
  • Nov 26, 2021 9:44am Nov 26, 2021 9:44am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I'm terribly sorry, but it is not. Moving average shows average price for X candles back using smoothness if you wish. It is not lagging. It is like to say that average speed of your car slow you down that's why you are not so good like formula 1 drivers. Look at Ronaldo. He trains every day, which is why he is one of the best footballers. But he use the same shoes and the same ball. Not unique special one. As so me the problem is that we are digging the wrong hole. Better ask yourself why there are no volume data on forex? Why they are...
If there is same move in every exchange. Then logicaly we cant relay on this broker volume.for example if price is same then volume is same then broker copy volume from other provider and dont show his real volume
  • #306
  • Nov 27, 2021 12:35am Nov 27, 2021 12:35am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I'm terribly sorry, but it is not. Moving average shows average price for X candles back using smoothness if you wish. It is not lagging. It is like to say that average speed of your car slow you down that's why you are not so good like formula 1 drivers. Look at Ronaldo. He trains every day, which is why he is one of the best footballers. But he use the same shoes and the same ball. Not unique special one. As so me the problem is that we are digging the wrong hole. Better ask yourself why there are no volume data on forex? Why they are...
Reading this shit hurts my brain. Are you actually this fucking stupid?

Do you understand the basics of what the forex market is, and who trades on it? If you did most of the dribble you wrote would all be answered for you.

There's no mystery, just ignorant people.

Quoting ficibald
{quote} If there is same move in every exchange. Then logicaly we cant relay on this broker volume.for example if price is same then volume is same then broker copy volume from other provider and dont show his real volume
More garbage.

Where exactly do you expect to get this magical volume data from? Do you even know what "volume" represents in your trading platform. I'm getting a strong hint that you wouldn't have a clue.

Where should this "real volume" be coming from? If you can answer that then you might get a worthy discussion going... otherwise you seem to be talking day-1 novice-level barely-flushable shit.

.....

You two are talking shit back and forth to each other... it's adorable.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #307
  • Nov 27, 2021 2:13am Nov 27, 2021 2:13am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Reading this shit hurts my brain. Are you actually this fucking stupid? Do you understand the basics of what the forex market is, and who trades on it? If you did most of the dribble you wrote would all be answered for you. There's no mystery, just ignorant people. {quote} More garbage. Where exactly do you expect to get this magical volume data from? Do you even know what "volume" represents in your trading platform. I'm getting a strong hint that you wouldn't have a clue. Where should this "real volume" be coming from? If you can answer...
I jus dont understand why price on chart on two brokers are same but volumes are different
  • #308
  • Nov 27, 2021 2:50am Nov 27, 2021 2:50am
Quoting ficibald
{quote} I jus dont understand why price on chart on two brokers are same but volumes are different
Yeah, that's clear as a punch in the face.

What does volume show, specifically, on your screen in your terminal... if it says volume of 20, what does that 20 MEAN... tell me that and maybe, maybe, you'll lead yourself into a discussion worth your time, instead of knucklefucking other noobs in a circle jerk of pointless musings.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #309
  • Nov 27, 2021 4:44am Nov 27, 2021 4:44am
Quoting ficibald
{quote} I jus dont understand why price on chart on two brokers are same but volumes are different
Chart or pricing is mostly the same because all major participants mostly look at the same price. It used to be EBS that was the main central order limit book but nowadays I am not sure. Its probably the aggregation of public ecn like fxall, ebs, reuters matching, hotspot etc and on top of that single bank platforms.

Arbitrage is why almost all the pricing would mostly be the same. Most major participants would be connected to the major venues. As for retail traders, we are subject to the broker that we use. Volume wise it is very different than in institutional space. So don't make your strategy based on volumes. You simply don't have the proper volumes data.
  • #310
  • Nov 27, 2021 5:24am Nov 27, 2021 5:24am
Quoting nubcake
{quote} Reading this shit hurts my brain. Are you actually this fucking stupid? ... You two are talking shit back and forth to each other... it's adorable.
Tone it down.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #312
  • Nov 27, 2021 5:25am Nov 27, 2021 5:25am
Quoting nubcake
{quote}... tell me that and maybe, maybe, you'll lead yourself into a discussion worth your time, instead of knucklefucking other noobs in a circle jerk of pointless musings.
Again, tone it down.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #313
  • Nov 27, 2021 5:39am Nov 27, 2021 5:39am
Quoting Supertrader9
{quote} Chart or pricing is mostly the same because all major participants mostly look at the same price. It used to be EBS that was the main central order limit book but nowadays I am not sure. Its probably the aggregation of public ecn like fxall, ebs, reuters matching, hotspot etc and on top of that single bank platforms. Arbitrage is why almost all the pricing would mostly be the same. Most major participants would be connected to the major venues. As for retail traders, we are subject to the broker that we use. Volume wise it is very different...
==============================================================================

From @TraderinSD's post from 2011:
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...31#post7170531

"“Tick volume” measures the number of times the price ticks up and down. This is an excellent indicator of the strength of activity in any given bar. But also, the correlation between tick volume and actual volume traded is incredibly high. In 2011, Caspar Marney, head of Marney Capital and ex-UBS and HSBC trader, conducted an analysis of actual volume and tick volume in Forex. He used data from eSignal, EBS and Hotspot. For the pairs he studied, he calculated the correlation between tick volume and actual volume is over 90%.
So the question is: How do we go about tying in volume with price action?... Think in terms of Forex Volume as a measurement of activity as it relates to the spread of a candle or bar."

==============================================================================

Now, I understand those with poor English reading skills may feel compelled to argue with me -- and you are welcome to -- but the the above quote comes from @TraderinSD's post. I haven't done a study myself (I don't have access to FX volume data) but I'm inclined to believe that Caspar Marney and his study are legitimate -- if you are in doubt then don't be lazy and Google it yourself.

Furthermore, @TraderinSD went on to say he thinks of volume as a "measurement of activity as it relates to the spread of a candle or bar". So -- even though tick volume is not FX volume, if the correlation is > 90% then it may be "good enough", if volume is your thing.

Again -- for those with poor English reading skills -- tick volume is not the same as Forex volume, but may be good enough. Besides, what choice do you have if you want to include a "volume-based" metric in your trading strategy. Believe it or not, sometimes "good enough" really is good enough...
  • #314
  • Nov 27, 2021 5:52am Nov 27, 2021 5:52am
Quoting robots4me
I haven't done a study myself (I don't have access to FX volume data) but I'm inclined to believe that Caspar Marney and his study are legitimate...


Quoting nubcake
{quote} Reading this shit hurts my brain. Are you actually this fucking stupid?
What is exactly stupid? Statement that moving average is not lagging indicator or that forex tick volume data is fake? Or that forex market is not a market at all?
Please keep us informed!
Observer effect
  • #315
  • Nov 27, 2021 6:09am Nov 27, 2021 6:09am
Quoting robots4me
{quote} ============================================================================== From @TraderinSD's post from 2011: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...31#post7170531 "“Tick volume” measures the number of times the price ticks up and down. This is an excellent indicator of the strength of activity in any given bar. But also, the correlation between tick volume and actual volume traded is incredibly high. In 2011, Caspar Marney, head of Marney Capital and ex-UBS and HSBC trader, conducted an analysis of actual volume and...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: volume-vs-ADR.png Size: 47 KB


Further to the point -- the first sub-window is an ADR histogram, and the second sub-window is an indicator that uses simple "tick volume" data. Each day begins with the ADR at '0' and it then rises during the trading day. The "tick volume" data does not include any price data -- yet, you can see there is often a surge of activity at the beginning of each day around London Open. This would be expected, right? Even though the indicator is not really using volume data it simulates what you would expect true FX volume to do -- at least, in this case.

The concept is similar to instruments that monitor blood pressure. They don't really measure blood pressure. To measure true blood pressure requires inserting a needle into an artery and measuring the amount of oxygen. Instead the most common instruments measure the force in your arteries as your heart pumps. Turns out there is a high correlation between force and amount of oxygen. Since measuring force is not an invasive procedure and correlates with true oxygen level, it is preferable and considered "good enough"...
  • #316
  • Nov 27, 2021 7:46am Nov 27, 2021 7:46am
First off I have been where you are and thought being profitable in this game is impossible but it definitely isn't it takes time dedication and a lot of hours of backtesting I must have tested hundreds if not thousands of indicators and systems and backtested things manually thousands of times but what it all boils down to is how consistent can you be and trade the same pairs at the same time of day taking the same setups if available and implementing great risk management nobody really knows where the market is going.

Having a system profitable only 50% of the time can be greatly profitable with good risk management personally I have 2 strategies one for a 5-minute chart taking 1 trade per day backtested over several years comes out just above 40% on specific fx pairs but I'm looking for a 3:1 risk to reward sometimes it hits good periods and achieves 60% is it luck maybe but when it has been proven over thousands of trades and several years maybe it's not but in reality let's face it nobody knows which way the market will go so it is some form of gambling the only defense you have is great risk management and for peace of mind as much data as possible to back up your theory.

The other strategy I have uses the 1hr chart again taking 1 trade per day per pair if I'm trading multiple pairs I would usually reduce the risk this one wins just over 50% of the time with a 2:1 and that's fine this has been tested since 2015 thousands of times over several fx pairs.

Both my strategies usually will complete the same or very next day sometimes they might run into a third day only for the 1hr system so knowing that I can say I'm going to risk a total of 1-1.5% of my account per day not per trade and I could be trading 7 or more pairs meaning 0.2% or less per trade but over that possible 3 day period I never risked more than 4.5% but I could have taken 21 trades the odds of me losing all 21 are highly unlikely it could happen but I'm willing to take that risk because I also know the next 21 trades most could be winners or maybe they won't you don't know and never will.

Its swings and roundabouts manage your risk well have clearly defined rules and be disciplined enough to follow through on it and its either going to happen or it isn't I have accepted that I don't know where the market is truly going but statistically, I have a good chance it's just a game of probabilities so my advice control what you can control like time of day what session you trade and what pairs and strategy and don't worry about that rest let it run its course.

Don't overthink it or pay too much attention to what other people are doing but instead create yourself a plan and collect as much data on your strategy as possible learn to recognize certain conditions and follow the process again and again then see what happens that's all you can do it's pointless stressing about it.
  • #317
  • Edited 10:44am Nov 27, 2021 9:53am | Edited 10:44am
Quoting cgorton27
First off I have been where you are and thought being profitable in this game is impossible but it definitely isn't it takes time dedication and a lot of hours of backtesting I must have tested hundreds if not thousands of indicators and systems and backtested things manually thousands of times but what it all boils down to is how consistent can you be and trade the same pairs at the same time of day taking the same setups if available and implementing great risk management nobody really knows where the market is going. Having a system profitable...
One of the more intelligent post that I've read in here since joining FF 10 years ago.

Bravo cgorton27! Bravo
Find The Pain Points On Your Chart & Trade Off Those Levels
  • #318
  • Edited Nov 28, 2021 12:27am Nov 27, 2021 10:02pm | Edited Nov 28, 2021 12:27am
@here2there -- I just now came across a post of yours from last month where you also commented about tick-volume vs FX volume:

=================================================

Your quote:

"I responded to you because you appear to be giving people the impression tick volume is far from being accurate in comparison to real volume. But the truth is, it's not far off from real volume. It seems you have been made to feel you need to purchase real volume in order to have an edge. But that is just a marketing gimmick, pushed by marketers to dupe volume traders into believing they can't trade as profitably without paying for 'special' services to access such data. It's BS, like most stuff in the FOREX market."
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13750389

=================================================

@here2there -- your post brought a smile to my face...

I've been ignoring FF for several months but since returning to lurk and browse a bit I saw some of @RickM's posts that emphasized the use of volume data, so I began experimenting a bit. The tick-volume data we get from MT4 is not real FX volume, but I've read that the correlation is high (e.g. > 90%). If we treat tick-volume as an "activity metric" then I believe there is an additional edge to be had. MT4's raw data is tick data -- that is really all there is. Bars, candles are artificial constructs of accumulated tick data. The more ticks then the more accurate the bars and the fewer the ticks the less accurate the bars. So, in the simplest case, it follows that more ticks mean more accurate bars and hence, more accurate signals.

P.S. There is another advantage to tick-volume data -- it doesn't lag. With each new tick that arrives our indicators and EAs get updated with the latest (and greatest) tick-volume data. The tick-volume data gets reset at the beginning of the next time frame.
  • #319
  • Edited 3:09am Nov 28, 2021 2:54am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting robots4me
@here2there -- I just now came across a post of yours from last month where you also commented about tick-volume vs FX volume: ================================================= Your quote: "I responded to you because you appear to be giving people the impression tick volume is far from being accurate in comparison to real volume. But the truth is, it's not far off from real volume. It seems you have been made to feel you need to purchase real volume in order to have an edge. But that is just a marketing gimmick, pushed by marketers to dupe volume...
Hi Steve

You are quite correct that tick volume in my opinion is just a "activity metric" of tick activity, not volume which is of course executed market orders..

An extreme one minute candle at a reversal point can produce volume levels 30 to 50 times above average on just one candle. You won't see that much of a difference on a tick volume indicator between candles, its god dam fraud.

Its the basic question really, why don't the brokers show us real volume levels when they can.
Of course they don't want to give us any useful tool that threatens their profitability.

Scammers in all honestly.

Cheers Rick

PS. On the chart below, shows a single candle shows a volume value of 1300.
On another high volume big player spike the day before, one showed us a value of over 8000 units (average is around 150).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: vvvb.png Size: 66 KB
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #320
  • Nov 28, 2021 3:13am Nov 28, 2021 3:13am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Steve You are quite correct that tick volume in my opinion is just a "activity metric" of tick activity, not volume which is of course executed market orders.. An extreme one minute candle at a reversal point can produce volume levels 30 to 50 times above average on just one candle. You won't see that much of a difference on a tick volume indicator between candles, its god dam fraud. Its the basic question really, why don't the brokers show us real volume levels when they can. Of course they don't want to give us any useful tool that...
Hi Rick -- thanks for your response. I'm still learning and have gained a lot of insight from your posts. Paying attention to volume (or tick-volume) is new to me, and though I'm not currently using it the way you are, I've incorporated it into a strategy that I like a lot. And I'm indebted to you for pointing me in that direction...
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