AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Nov 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:10 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.09
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent erratic decline from Oct's 3-year peak at 114.69 to a 4-week trough of 112.73, subsequent bounce to 112.11 (New York), then intra-day brief break above there on rally in U.S. yields suggests temporary low is made and consolidation with upside bias is seen for a long-overdue retracement towards 113.66 objective.

Only below 112.73 risks marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would limit downside to 112.45/50.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
Although market is paying attention to U.S. CPI n core CPI at 13:30GMT, a higher-than-expected reading may give the buck a temporary lift, as Fed's J. Powell has repeatedly said recent rising trend in inflation is 'transitory', only consistent upbeat U.S. jobs report would push the Fed to start hiking rates early next year.

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AceTraderFx Nov 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:11 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.07
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.01 on upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

No U.S. economic data is due out as U.S. markets and Canada are closed for Veterans Day and Remembrance Day holiday respectively. So one may expect intra-day trading to quieten down after European midday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1445
Euro's break of previous 1.1514 support to 1.1477 Wednesday, then yesterday's fall to a fresh 15-month bottom of 1.1444 in holiday-thin New York suggests Mid Term decline from 20210 peak at 1.2349 (January) would extend to 1.1405/10 after consolidation but reckon 1.1383 should hold due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1514 signals a temporary bottom is made and retracement to 1.1571/74 is seen.

On the data front, we have a slew of eco. indicators from the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details. We also have ECB's Chief Economist Lane participating at a workshop conference at 13:50GMT.

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AceTraderFx Nov 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:12 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.03
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.01 on upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

Data to be released later:
Swiss producer/import price, EU industrial production, U.S. University of Michigan sentiment and JOLTUS Job openings.

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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1454
Euro's marginal weakness to a fresh 15-month bottom at 1.1434 Friday suggests Medium-term decline from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) would resume after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should prevent steep fall today and reckon 1.1400/10 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1500 signals a temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.1520/30 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released today:
Japan GDP, industrial output, capacity utilization.
U.K. Rightmove house price, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, Canada manufacturing sales and wholesale trade on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:15 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.90
The greenback's rally on Wednesday to 114.30 on Friday due to upbeat U.S. inflation data together with rising U.S. Treasury yields and intra-day break above there confirms correction from October's 3-year peak at 114.69 has ended at 112.73 on Tuesday and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 114.44/50, then bring re-test of said top.

On the downside, only below 113.66 would dampen daily bullishness and risk stronger retracement to 113.40/50.

The only U.S. eco. data due out is New York Fed manufacturing (market is keenly awaiting Tuesday's retail sales), traders will take cue from intra-day move in US 10-year yield after early rally from last Tuesday's 6-week low at 1.415% to 1.592% on Wednesday (circa 1.5545%).

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AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1376
Euro's selloff in New York session below Fri's 1.1434 low (now res) due to broad-based euro's weakness and rally in usd in tandem with U.S. yields to a 16-month trough of 1.1357 suggests recent downtrend would pressure price lower after consolidation, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1291 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1434 signals temporary low is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1461/63 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan tertiary industry activities, New Zealand GDT price index.
U.K. Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, France CPI, Italy CPI, EU employment, GDP.
Canada housing starts, U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, redbook, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index.

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AceTraderFx Nov 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:16 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.17
The greenback's intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday's high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday's bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October's 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data & today's retail sales is the most important indicator for the week.
Street forecast for October m/m retail sales to come in at 1.2% vs prev. reading of 0.7%, a stronger-than-expected number would push US yields higher as well as the greenback.

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AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1318
Euro's selloff and break of Monday's 1.1357 low to a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1309 in New York yesterday due to usd's rally in tandem with U.S. yields after robust US retail sales suggests recent downtrend would pressure price lower after consolidation , however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1256 today and yield a much-needed minor correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1385 (Tue high) signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1434 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand PPI, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, wage price index.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, trade balance, DCLF house price index, Italy trade balance, EU construction output, HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, housing starts and Canada CPI.

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AceTraderFx Nov 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:17 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.82
The greenback's intra-day 1-tick break of last Friday's high at 114.30 suggests corrective upmove from last Tuesday's bottom at 112.73 would head to 114.50/60 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below October's 3-year peak at 114.69 this week and yield a much-needed retreat later.

On the downside, only below 113.70/75 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement of aforesaid move towards 113.66, then 113.26/31.

After Tuesday's key U.S. retail sales, U.S. will later release 2nd-tier MBA mortgage applications, building permits n housing starts. However, we have a large number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1321
Euro's rebound from a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1265 Wednesday suggests medium-term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) has made a temporary low and initial consolidation is seen before another fall, while loss of dowanward momentum would keep price above 1.1215/20 and bring correction.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1332 risks stronger retracement to 1.1357, break, 1.1385 later.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand inflation forecast.
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and KC Fed manufacturing index.

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AceTraderFx Nov 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:18 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.10
Although dollar's strong retreat from Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 (New York), then 113.89 today suggests recent uptrend has made a temporary top and range trading is in store, reckon 113.76 would contain weakness and bring rebound but above 114.97 needed to extend gain to 115.30/35.

Only a daily close below 113.76 risks stronger retracement to 113.00/10 before prospect of another rise next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand inflation forecast, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, industrial production, U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, leading index change and KC Fed manufacturing index.

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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1364
Euro's rebound to 1.1374 Thursday on usd's broad-based retreat suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Wednesday's fresh 16-month trough at 1.1265, as long as res at 1.1385 holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.1315 signals recovery over and yields re-test of 1.1265 next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1385 risks stronger retracement to 1.1434/38 on Monday.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Nov 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time:19 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 1114.43
Although dlr's fall fm Wed's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 to 113.94 in tandem with US yields, then 113 .89 yesterday suggests recent uptrend has made a temp. top, subsequent rise to 114.48 Thu signals 1st leg of correction over n 'choppy' trading is in store.

Sell on recovery to 114.45 for 113.80 or buy there for 114.45. Only below 113.66 risks 113.31/36

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, France ILO employment rate, Germany producer prices, Italy industrial sales, EU current account.
Canada new housing price index and retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1282
Despite resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 16-month trough of 1.1250 Fri due to Covid concerns in Europe, subsequent short-coveriing rally to 1.1322 in New York would bring choppy range trading, reckon 1.1350/60 would cap recovery and yield decline.

On the downside, below 1.1265 signals recovery over, however, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1220/30 today.

Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.15
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Data to be released today:
EU consumer confidence.
U.S. national activity index, existing hole sales on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1243
Euro's break of last Friday's 1.1250 low to a fresh 16-month bottom at 1.1231 in New York Monday due to rally in U.S. yields and usd on news of Fed Powell's renomination suggests medium-term downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) remains in force, however, oversold condition should keep price above 1.1169/74.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1291 signals temporary trough is made and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1322.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Market Holiday,.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. redbook, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx Nov 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.62
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator from the U.S. is Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

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AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Nov 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1244
Despite euro's marginal weakness to a fresh 16-month trough at 1.1227 in Asia Tuesday, subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.1274 in Europe suggests temporary low is made and as long as 1.1291 res holds, consolidation with downside bias remains for another fall, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.1280/85.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1291 confirms temporary bottom is in place and brings stronger retracement to 1.1340/45.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia construction work done, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, New Zealand interest rate decision.
Swiss investor sentiment, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, building permits, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment and new home sales.

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AceTraderFx Nov 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Nov 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.89
Despite the greenback's selloff from 114.53 to as low as 113.59 on Friday due to tumbling U.S. Treasury yields, subsequent strong rebound suggests the correction from last Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.97 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above 114.53 would add credence and head to 114.70/75, however, said resistance should hold on 1st testing and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 113.89 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 113.59.

Later today, we have data dump from the U.S. due to Thur's Thanksgiving holiday, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to Q3 GDP as well as PCE price (Fed's preferred inflation gauge), if actual readings are higher than forecast, then expect U.S. yields to rise as well as the greenback.
Last but not the least, if you are still awake, we have release of previous FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT, however, market is expecting hawkish minutes.

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