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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #84,181
  • Edited 1:13pm Nov 11, 2021 1:03pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Careful my friend. Catching the swing when the chart isn't rangebound is an easy way to blow your account. I know from experience. Try instead to catch the retracement OFF of that first swing. The probability is a little higher. Once price leaves a swing it retraces a bit to it (Leg1 +2). Place a trade above that retracement and let it engage you on the way back up. If it is NOT the swing price will crash through the previous support and, leave your trade untouched. If it is.. you will have caught a nice run through legs 2 3, 4 and possibly...
It's easier to look at the daily candles and buy or sell at 50% retracement of the previous days overall movement.

So if it moved 100 pips I have a buy or sell order at plus or minus 40-50 pips.

I watch pa the day I'm getting in and I may or may not hold to that rule strictly.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,182
  • Nov 11, 2021 1:05pm Nov 11, 2021 1:05pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} There is a guy on Youtube who uses channels to find Wave 4. He envelopes wave 1 and sends the channel up (or down if bearish), and low and behold wave 4 kept bouncing off of it. How do you use them? Do you find that wave 3 stays in the channel?
yes they stay in channels. charts below i havent labeled as its hard for guys in the room to follow EW. and for some reason when i store them in my telegram room the channels dont appear. anyway take a look
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  • #84,183
  • Nov 11, 2021 1:12pm Nov 11, 2021 1:12pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} There is a guy on Youtube who uses channels to find Wave 4. He envelopes wave 1 and sends the channel up (or down if bearish), and low and behold wave 4 kept bouncing off of it. How do you use them? Do you find that wave 3 stays in the channel?
a few more
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  • #84,184
  • Nov 11, 2021 1:22pm Nov 11, 2021 1:22pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} It's easier to look at the daily candles and buy or sell at 50% retracement of the previous days overall movement. So if it moved 100 pips I have a buy or sell order at plus or minus 40-50 pips. I watch pa the day I'm getting in and I may or may not hold to that rule strictly.
Also vert useful to use the ADR for targets
  • #84,185
  • Nov 11, 2021 1:26pm Nov 11, 2021 1:26pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} There is a guy on Youtube who uses channels to find Wave 4. He envelopes wave 1 and sends the channel up (or down if bearish), and low and behold wave 4 kept bouncing off of it. How do you use them? Do you find that wave 3 stays in the channel?
Just went long GU for tomorrow, won't fo anywhere today as market too thin. But shouldn't be far away from a bottom then ABC correction back up to sell
  • #84,186
  • Nov 11, 2021 1:26pm Nov 11, 2021 1:26pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} It's easier to look at the daily candles and buy or sell at 50% retracement of the previous days overall movement. So if it moved 100 pips I have a buy or sell order at plus or minus 40-50 pips. I watch pa the day I'm getting in and I may or may not hold to that rule strictly.
This sounds like a good scalping method, but I am trying to move away from the screen. Plus using a 50% of a daily your stops can be all over the place for me. In this scenario I would place my stops above or below the previous day. 50% is a lot in my book. Would rather risk 30, or less if I enter on a 30m candle using the edge.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,187
  • Nov 11, 2021 1:28pm Nov 11, 2021 1:28pm
Thanks for the chat T721. Imma take off for the day. Enjoy some fresh air. I will look at your setups later on. Appreciate you.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,188
  • Nov 11, 2021 3:01pm Nov 11, 2021 3:01pm
Quoting T721
{quote}I use EW also. This month is my 29th year trading, lost over 100k gbp in yhe first 5yrs or so. Stuck at it and been trading full time ever since Also I like using channels with EW, very helpful
Way to grind through this extremely demanding business. Elusive for the few.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #84,189
  • Nov 11, 2021 3:18pm Nov 11, 2021 3:18pm
Quoting HTG
{quote} Way to grind through this extremely demanding business. Elusive for the few.
you can learn it given enough trial and error. a helluva lot of error on my part back in the day but it eventually come together. how long you been trading ?
  • #84,190
  • Edited 4:36pm Nov 11, 2021 4:12pm | Edited 4:36pm
Quoting T721
{quote} Just went long GU for tomorrow, won't fo anywhere today as market too thin. But shouldn't be far away from a bottom then ABC correction back up to sell

Thanks. Looks good for a nice ABC. I will watch this on a lower time frame and catch the first fractal. tks
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,191
  • Nov 11, 2021 5:45pm Nov 11, 2021 5:45pm
Quoting T721
{quote} you can learn it given enough trial and error. a helluva lot of error on my part back in the day but it eventually come together. how long you been trading ?
That trial and error or FAILURE is really what needs to happen for success in this business. The failures in the experience gives the person those skills to become an unrelenting force.

I typically just say 10+ years. I started trading the Forex market back in 2008.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #84,192
  • Nov 11, 2021 6:08pm Nov 11, 2021 6:08pm
Quoting HTG
{quote} That trial and error or FAILURE is really what needs to happen for success in this business. The failures in the experience gives the person those skills to become an unrelenting force. I typically just say 10+ years. I started trading the Forex market back in 2008.
I'm teaching my son to trade, I started him with a 2k account 3mnths ago. Obviously he's sitting next to me everyday so has to stick to my rules. I'm teaching him to make pips not money. Once he gets account to 5k I will let him trade on his own with no supervision. Then I really want him to blow that account up as quickly as possible
  • #84,193
  • Nov 11, 2021 6:15pm Nov 11, 2021 6:15pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} This sounds like a good scalping method, but I am trying to move away from the screen. Plus using a 50% of a daily your stops can be all over the place for me. In this scenario I would place my stops above or below the previous day. 50% is a lot in my book. Would rather risk 30, or less if I enter on a 30m candle using the edge.
It's not a lot if you know how to scale. Banks scale, hedge funds scale, professionals scale. Once you get the hang of it your trading is transformed
  • #84,194
  • Nov 11, 2021 6:38pm Nov 11, 2021 6:38pm
Quoting T721
{quote} I'm teaching my son to trade, I started him with a 2k account 3mnths ago. Obviously he's sitting next to me everyday so has to stick to my rules. I'm teaching him to make pips not money. Once he gets account to 5k I will let him trade on his own with no supervision. Then I really want him to blow that account up as quickly as possible
Outstanding....I am doing pretty much the same thing with my son, 18 years old. Senior in HS and knowing he is not going the college route (he is more entrepreneurial driven and just thinks college will not be for him and I support that decision) we discussed some ideas and got some of his thoughts around what he was going to do after HS. We discussed the market and basically sat him down and showed him the Forex Market and Stock Options. Being in HS, a few of this friends where dabbling in the stock market so he choose options. Showed him the basics and then let him run with it. He has learned a-lot and like you I am there for him to kind of coach him along with some of the emotions, the psychology side of things amongst other things. Long way to go but he's learning and leading.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #84,195
  • Nov 11, 2021 7:04pm Nov 11, 2021 7:04pm
Quoting obsaymkmoney
{quote} thanks. Looks good for a nice abc. I will watch this on a lower time frame and catch the first fractal. Tks
gbpusd gameplan till it goes titsup
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  • #84,196
  • Nov 11, 2021 7:07pm Nov 11, 2021 7:07pm
Quoting HTG
{quote} Outstanding....I am doing pretty much the same thing with my son, 18 years old. Senior in HS and knowing he is not going the college route (he is more entrepreneurial driven and just thinks college will not be for him and I support that decision) we discussed some ideas and got some of his thoughts around what he was going to do after HS. We discussed the market and basically sat him down and showed him the Forex Market and Stock Options. Being in HS, a few of this friends where dabbling in the stock market so he choose options. Showed him...
This might sound silly to some, the reasson i want my son to build his account then blow it is to teach him the lesson early on. imagine he sat next to me trading for 10yrs and didnt take a big hit. now imagine if i die, whats likely to happen. He would blow a much bigger account that he needs

so yes its going to cost me 2k for him to blow a 5k account, cheap at half the price to learn the most valuable lesson in trading
  • #84,197
  • Nov 11, 2021 7:11pm Nov 11, 2021 7:11pm
Quoting T721
{quote} This might sound silly to some, the reasson i want my son to build his account then blow it is to teach him the lesson early on. imagine he sat next to me trading for 10yrs and didnt take a big hit. now imagine if i die, whats likely to happen. He would blow a much bigger account that he needs so yes its going to cost me 2k for him to blow a 5k account, cheap at half the price to learn the most valuable lesson in trading
Agree, that should definitely teach him a valuable lesson, and its not silly at all, I fully support it.
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #84,198
  • Nov 11, 2021 7:41pm Nov 11, 2021 7:41pm
I'd recommend teaching him what not to do and lead by example through your own mistakes and experience.

Even the most experienced and successful traders have to take some very painful losses at some point.

Lifes hard enough. No need to make it harder.

I started trading when I was 16 and I'm 38 now.

I can honestly say I've never blown up an account but I've risked and lost the houses money more than one time.

But I had some great mentors who were family and friends.

It's all about risk management and that's the number one thing a new trader needs pounded into them.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,199
  • Nov 11, 2021 10:29pm Nov 11, 2021 10:29pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} Looks to me like consolidation with a potential bull flag forming on the 4 hour chart.
That may have very well been the case.
Get the Lag out
  • #84,200
  • Edited 8:21am Nov 12, 2021 7:11am | Edited 8:21am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} .... If it is NOT the swing price will crash through the previous support and, leave your trade untouched. If it is.. you will have caught a nice run through legs 2 3, 4 and possibly...
I wonder what kind of trade on which market is automatically so nice to you? Many times I set the pending buy limit @ 79% (Sniper entry) waiting for either the market fallen thru the 79%, then 100% and break the support; or the price would trigger that pending order then goes back up higher level; but no most often price jittering @ 79% mostly at middle of night trigger the pending order then fallen thru the support ... only 50 and 62% retracement up to 71% max is safe for pending order, under 0.75 or 75% you better sit there and watch the price action.

Here is my expectation on UJ. Prrice has retraced touched 62, bounced and now came back to 62% a 2nd time, bull & bear fighting, going down M15 MACD in neg area, so maybe price follow the price channel, dropped to 113.80 then would complete it job for targeting to clear the higher area 114.4 and 114.7 before return

UPDate:

US open after holiday, UJ jittering @ 75%, went to near 79 level, if not recover from here, the retracement would be a reversal fallen through support
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