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  • #4,881
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:22am Nov 3, 2021 5:22am
As for trading the dax today - nothing - no trades taken. Spikey start up and down from 8am and those high and lows contained price. Tried marking in a couple of dummy trades to gauge movement and would be lucky to get five. Noted also the 200 was flat lining. So nothing done today. EU busy with meeting etc I believe.

And note how close together the ADR etc lines were from 8am.
Gone out for coffee with the boss.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,882
  • Nov 3, 2021 5:52am Nov 3, 2021 5:52am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I haven't tried these but may be worth checking out and aid in answering your question. In the past i have used ADR as a TP target and it worked quite well for me ADR_PLUS Historic ADR script history ADR indicator OGT
Thank you! Yes! I have tried looking for a historical adr to do backtest but I could not find it
  • #4,883
  • Nov 4, 2021 8:15am Nov 4, 2021 8:15am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I tried the RSI indicator and it just froze my MT4. Ended up deleting the last profile in the MT4 folder to get it back. Will have to look into to it later. I have had similar concerns in the past and it usually ends up being another indicator i have running. Nice trade on EURUSD (love the magnet png image). With the "1-2 punch" do you tend wait for the second top and reversal to enter? I'm guessing it would be more reliable than if price just single crosses. Hehe i felt very "professional" adding the graphic. I would say most of the time...
With the terminal freezing, it might be that MT4 is downloading market data (because the indicator uses data from all 28 currency pairs). Unfortunately, Metaquotes did not build a "status"/loading indicator into MT4, so when it's loading market data or processing a particularly complex script, it just looks like it's frozen. So, sometimes I find if you leave it for like 5-10 minutes, it will unfreeze itself and start working (and should be okay for subsequent runs). Unfortunately, other times, it never unfreeze itself and just crashes. If you can be bothered doing this, Hanover has written a script which will download the market data for you, which can rule out this particular problem.

Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I would say most of the time i wait for a second top before entering. It definitely leads to a higher probability of a winning trade in my opinion. However there are times in which i may not wait. In those cases i may feel were in a strong trend or maybe i have FOMO and enter with half the risk. That way if it takes off i have something in the market and if it comes back for the second top i can enter with the remainder (its not really Fear of missing out. but more of the way price is behaving leads me to believe it might take off or it...
Ah, this makes sense. It probably is a lot easier psychologically to trade as well because after it double tops, it's much less likely to retest the initial stop (unless it does a triple top, which I would guess is much more rare).
  • #4,884
  • Edited 6:54pm Nov 4, 2021 6:26pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting emergentfeat
{quote} With the terminal freezing, it might be that MT4 is downloading market data (because the indicator uses data from all 28 currency pairs). Unfortunately, Metaquotes did not build a "status"/loading indicator into MT4, so when it's loading market data or processing a particularly complex script, it just looks like it's frozen. So, sometimes I find if you leave it for like 5-10 minutes, it will unfreeze itself and start working (and should be okay for subsequent runs). Unfortunately, other times, it never unfreeze itself and just crashes. If...
I did give it some time and it seems to be working. Has a lot of info and makes my brain hurt. Plan to set up a spare PC to record data along with the MA DASH and Hanovers Strength indicator if i can get it working

Quoting emergentfeat
{quote}Ah, this makes sense. It probably is a lot easier psychologically to trade as well because after it double tops, it's much less likely to retest the initial stop (unless it does a triple top, which I would guess is much more rare).
Absolutely!!. Sometimes you will miss a trade waiting for the second top, sometimes you get a home run and other times it stops you out and never gives you a second top. Waiting for the second top gives you much greater probability of having a winning trade. And yup you must not be worried about a 3rd top. They do happen but not often. Something else to consider is sometimes they give you a 3rd top and stop you out but from my history it just increases the probability of a winning trade so i get in again. I added a example below. Not the best example but the only one i could find quickly.

Next week i will be trading. This week due to Halloween and the news i have avoided it. But looks like there have been some good potential trades

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  • #4,885
  • Nov 5, 2021 11:50am Nov 5, 2021 11:50am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I did give it some time and it seems to be working. Has a lot of info and makes my brain hurt.
If this makes your head ache, wait til you see this thread.

Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} And yup you must not be worried about a 3rd top. They do happen but not often. Something else to consider is sometimes they give you a 3rd top and stop you out but from my history it just increases the probability of a winning trade so i get in again. I added a example below. Not the best example but the only one i could find quickly. Next week i will be trading. This week due to Halloween and the news i have avoided it. But looks like there have been some good potential trades {image}
I feel this is quite an important result— third time's the charm, it seems. I guess it makes sense; if the market is strongly trending, it can only consolidate for so long so by the time it tests three times, it's probably going to continue.
  • #4,886
  • Nov 5, 2021 9:39pm Nov 5, 2021 9:39pm
[quote=ChubbyWookie;13773650]{quote} I did give it some time and it seems to be working. Has a lot of info and makes my brain hurt. P

Hi Chubbie Wookie,
I sent you a PM on those Horizontal red lines. If you get time would appreciate your comments.
Kind regards
Ben
  • #4,887
  • Nov 6, 2021 9:23pm Nov 6, 2021 9:23pm
Quoting btrfx1
{quote}I sent you a PM on those Horizontal red lines. If you get time would appreciate your comments.
Kind regards
Ben
It's a daily open line indicator and can be downloaded from this post. I use it to help see price in a 24 hour period. Especially on the H1 and H4 charts. Also it can be a area of support and resistance at times
  • #4,888
  • Nov 7, 2021 6:52pm Nov 7, 2021 6:52pm
EUR/USD looks like it may be setting up for a potential reversal. I Will be looking for possible early road map entries to hold to 1.1700. Of course this may all change by the time we open for London. Guess we will find out soon enough.

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  • #4,889
  • Nov 8, 2021 2:07pm Nov 8, 2021 2:07pm
Quoting ChubbyWookie
EUR/USD looks like it may be setting up for a potential reversal. I Will be looking for possible early road map entries to hold to 1.1700. Of course this may all change by the time we open for London. Guess we will find out soon enough. {image}
If you look at USDX you can see why i was looking long on EUR/USD. In general i would be looking at any XXX/USD pair to be going long. Currently holding 2 positions placed on the m1 but based on higher time frames. I was looking at 1.16000 for today. If you look at EUR/GBP you can see why EUR/USD moved less and how GPB/USD would of been a better choice. With the GBP being so strong you could go even further and look at additional GBP/XXX pairs. Remember the dotted blue line is a 600 SMA which is approximately the next higher time frame 200 SMA (So m5 dotted blue line is the m15 200 SMA)

I closed half of my position for the 1st trade around 1.15750 @ 4.5%. By the second entry I have moved stop to BE on the 1st trade and entered the second trade with 3%. Over the next few days I will still hold for 1.17000 area but will depend on tomorrow. I suspect we will get at least 1.1600 tomorrow but will need to see how price reacts to determine if i am still willing to hold for 1.17000. In the end I have also entered GBP/USD and GBP/CAD. I am done for the week aside from managing a few longer term positions. There were some prime roadmap trades in the GBP pairs and even in the EUR but you had to be patient

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  • #4,890
  • Nov 9, 2021 5:21am Nov 9, 2021 5:21am
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} If you look at USDX you can see why i was looking long on EUR/USD. In general i would be looking at any XXX/USD pair to be going long. Currently holding 2 positions placed on the m1 but based on higher time frames. I was looking at 1.16000 for today. If you look at EUR/GBP you can see why EUR/USD moved less and how GPB/USD would of been a better choice. With the GBP being so strong you could go even further and look at additional GBP/XXX pairs. Remember the dotted blue line is a 600 SMA which is approximately the next higher time frame 200...
again, nice trade and analysis. I continue to be impressed how you are able to kind of make sense using higher timeframe analysis out of what at first glance is pretty chaotic consolidation.

Not sure if you are still in the long EURUSD position, but I would predict that it's going to struggle at the current level because it's near the H1 SMA(200). I don't know why, but I've noticed that the one hour SMA tends to be particularly powerful and well-respected. Like, the lower timeframe moving averages can act as support, but the one hour seems to be able to reverse the trend (the lower timeframes less so). In the attached chart, you can see how the red one hour SMA is respected
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  • #4,891
  • Nov 9, 2021 10:10am Nov 9, 2021 10:10am
Just wiped out two days profits by being greedy and overtrading the Dow Index when it had settled into sideways mode rather than using volatility ( sloping ma's and no looking left consolidations/levels ) - oh well - must be more disciplined on Wednesday and not be greedy.
I must be human then
Bother !!!
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #4,892
  • Edited 3:11pm Nov 9, 2021 2:55pm | Edited 3:11pm
Quoting emergentfeat
{quote} again, nice trade and analysis. I continue to be impressed how you are able to kind of make sense using higher timeframe analysis out of what at first glance is pretty chaotic consolidation. Not sure if you are still in the long EURUSD position, but I would predict that it's going to struggle at the current level because it's near the H1 SMA(200). I don't know why, but I've noticed that the one hour SMA tends to be particularly powerful and well-respected. Like, the lower timeframe moving averages can act as support, but the one hour seems...
Yes I was still long in EUR/USD at the time of your picture. I agree the H1 200 SMA seems to be quite powerful. I suspect because it used by so many trading systems. But in the end it doesn't matter to much as long as we are aware of it. Also in this case a big round number like 1.16000 is just above it.

I ended up closing out my positions due to price not being able to break and hold 1.16000. In this case i was watching EUR/GPB rise suspecting it to push EUR/USD up but instead EUR/USD and EUR/GBP Converged. It was tough to watch but okay since i am was just along for the free ride. In the end EUR/USD popped and i closed out my positions I still believe longer term will be to the upside assuming it can break and hold 1.16000. But im not confident enough or willing to wait it out and watch the charts all week to find out.
Nov 8 Trade 1A: 4.5%
Nov 8 Trade 1B: 11%
Nov 8 Trade 2: 24%
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I did not take it but it was a nice GBP/USD Trade
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  • #4,893
  • Nov 9, 2021 3:07pm Nov 9, 2021 3:07pm
Quoting turnip15
Just wiped out two days profits by being greedy and overtrading the Dow Index when it had settled into sideways mode rather than using volatility ( sloping ma's and no looking left consolidations/levels ) - oh well - must be more disciplined on Wednesday and not be greedy. I must be human then Bother !!!
I have been there and still occasionally catch my self doing it. Also per my back testing results. This is about the time of the year for me to stop trading. Otherwise the choppiness kicks my butt
  • #4,894
  • Nov 9, 2021 3:35pm Nov 9, 2021 3:35pm
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I have been there and still occasionally catch my self doing it. Also per my back testing results. This is about the time of the year for me to stop trading. Otherwise the choppiness kicks my butt
Yeah, it's getting near to take-a-break time.
  • #4,895
  • Nov 12, 2021 5:47am Nov 12, 2021 5:47am
@ChubbyWookie Not too bad a result for the week.

Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} I have been there and still occasionally catch my self doing it. Also per my back testing results. This is about the time of the year for me to stop trading. Otherwise the choppiness kicks my butt
Just curious what your backtesting suggests about this time of year? I haven't looked at the question specifically, but seems like there often are still decent trends going into Christmas.

Sounds like you are definitely living the lifestyle with the 2-3 day trading work week! Is that just to have more time for the rest of the week or because it's more effective or efficient to just trade a few days per week?
  • #4,896
  • Nov 12, 2021 6:05pm Nov 12, 2021 6:05pm
Quoting emergentfeat
Just curious what your backtesting suggests about this time of year? I haven't looked at the question specifically, but seems like there often are still decent trends going into Christmas.
My equity curve pretty much flattens and sometimes drops off for November and December. It actually starts as early as October. But gets really noticeable November/December. Long story short it seems i end up taking more trades due to being stopped out more often. My trades almost double in amount taken. It doesn't always happen but its often enough to just enjoy the time off. Yes i used to think that there were still many decent trades but for me and my personality back testing has showed me i was mistaken.


Quoting emergentfeat
Sounds like you are definitely living the lifestyle with the 2-3 day trading work week! Is that just to have more time for the rest of the week or because it's more effective or efficient to just trade a few days per week?
It's primarily to just enjoy the time off and spending it with family. I still review the charts and mark them up though. Then there is the other side. I tend to notice if i trade all week i feel as if i have to enter a trade every day and sometimes chase things i shouldn't and revenge trade. But If it has been 3 days and i still haven't made my 10% I will take a step back, clear the charts and restart my analysis to see why. often times its because of chop and in reality its best to just wait for that optimal set up and come back next week if needed. Which is often easier said then done. I pretty much think about charts all day and even dream about them. I'm a deeply disturbed individual
  • #4,897
  • Nov 12, 2021 8:42pm Nov 12, 2021 8:42pm
Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} Which is often easier said then done. I pretty much think about charts all day and even dream about them. I'm a deeply disturbed individual
I'm totally with you on that! I think I have a slightly obsessive personality and trading definitely caters to that. But, it is easy to overdo it. I think most of my losses are due to just trading so much, I let down my guard/just get sloppy. You really do have to bring all your facilities to each trade and do the full service analysis every time. And yeah, I think the more you sit there looking at the charts, it increases the probability that you will come across that ambiguous or choppy market situation and slip up and interpret it to be a good trade.

So, I think your strategy of less is more makes sense from a trading perspective (in addition to being able to have a good life!).

Quoting ChubbyWookie
{quote} My equity curve pretty much flattens and sometimes drops off for November and December. It actually starts as early as October. But gets really noticeable November/December. Long story short it seems i end up taking more trades due to being stopped out more often. My trades almost double in amount taken. It doesn't always happen but its often enough to just enjoy the time of
That's interesting. I guess you can use the time to do more analysis. I would personally probably try to look for an additional strategy that does work during those periods... but then you could be risk overextending yourself and diluting your otherwise successful strategy.
  • #4,898
  • Nov 16, 2021 7:27pm Nov 16, 2021 7:27pm
Im not trading for the rest of the year but Wowsers!!!!! Hope somebody caught some of these.
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  • #4,899
  • Nov 18, 2021 5:48pm Nov 18, 2021 5:48pm
MR. Would you be so kind in your RSI CSI indicator, that you could see the strength of the BTC, THANK YOU SO MUCH
  • #4,900
  • Nov 21, 2021 11:47am Nov 21, 2021 11:47am
Quoting lazamoro
MR. Would you be so kind in your RSI CSI indicator, that you could see the strength of the BTC, THANK YOU SO MUCH
Not sure you were talking to me, but unfortunately, it's not possible to add Bitcoin or most other exotic currencies to the indicator. The reason is that in order to add a currency, you need to have cross pairs of that currency with every other currency in the indicator available from the broker. If you use Oanda, it is possible to add gold, silver, and Singapore dollar because that broker offers the crosses of those currencies/commodities with all the other currencies.
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