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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #84,141
  • Nov 8, 2021 6:04am Nov 8, 2021 6:04am
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  • #84,142
  • Nov 8, 2021 8:40am Nov 8, 2021 8:40am
Quoting Beyfor
{image}
im not big on searching for chart patterns.

but if this isn’t a Bull Flag…
  • #84,143
  • Nov 8, 2021 8:30pm Nov 8, 2021 8:30pm
I am short UJ because Commercials are the most extreme during the last 3 years.
When Commercials start removing some of their posititons and the currently maximum spread tightens you can participate in this downward trend (disclaimer). Also UJ bounced off weekly resistance from Oct 2018 and showed weakness in daily chart.
For daily chart TP is: 110.015, SL: 114.527
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #84,144
  • Nov 8, 2021 10:25pm Nov 8, 2021 10:25pm
current setup on my orders. please enlighten me if i price will drop to 111.970
love to see your views.
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Golfer that loves Forex
  • #84,145
  • Nov 9, 2021 12:57am Nov 9, 2021 12:57am
#USDJPY / H4
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  • #84,146
  • Nov 9, 2021 3:19am Nov 9, 2021 3:19am
Atleast the pair is rebounding back and recovered a major part of Friday's losses.
  • #84,147
  • Nov 9, 2021 5:09am Nov 9, 2021 5:09am
Anyone else looking long here?

Going for 100 pips but have been getting crushed the last couple of days.
ri · skuht
  • #84,148
  • Nov 9, 2021 7:17am Nov 9, 2021 7:17am
Quoting Riskcuit
Anyone else looking long here? Going for 100 pips but have been getting crushed the last couple of days.
This week traders should follow the smart money. I have 3 reasons for a short trade:

1) The COT data show that commercials traded with their most extreme positions within the last 3 years on last friday and these are fundamental data

2) from the economic calender you can see that the current account for September disappointed forecasts and expectations (0.76T instead of 0.85 T)

3) In the screenshot you can see a volume profile on UJ's with a daily chart as a time frame. You can also see the thick black line at 109.837 --> that should be our TP (little typo in my previous post with profit target)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #84,149
  • Nov 9, 2021 7:31am Nov 9, 2021 7:31am
Wave 4 looks complete. Now for wave 5. If the rules are respected we should see around 115.8 next week.
OR... we break through this level in the next couple of days
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,150
  • Nov 9, 2021 8:53am Nov 9, 2021 8:53am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
Wave 4 looks complete. Now for wave 5. If the rules are respected we should see around 115.8 next week. OR... we break through this level in the next couple of days
My guess is there's a lot riding on cpi numbers tomorrow.

Options are pointing towards 113.70/114 by the end of the week.

Who knows though. Yen futures have been nutty.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,151
  • Nov 9, 2021 10:46pm Nov 9, 2021 10:46pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} My guess is there's a lot riding on cpi numbers tomorrow. Options are pointing towards 113.70/114 by the end of the week. Who knows though. Yen futures have been nutty.
High chance i guess we need to watch out for these two signals; or at least i'm watching for them (the turquoise area in the pic)
1. breaking above 113.1
2. Hammer
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Golfer that loves Forex
  • #84,152
  • Edited 7:53am Nov 10, 2021 5:25am | Edited 7:53am
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File Type: pdf Wave Ratios and Measurements.pdf   667 KB | 1,317 downloads
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File Type: rar EW_ABCD_PRO_fix.rar   2.9 MB | 413 downloads
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #84,153
  • Nov 10, 2021 8:06am Nov 10, 2021 8:06am
#USDJPY / H4
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  • #84,154
  • Nov 10, 2021 8:13am Nov 10, 2021 8:13am
Well, JPY like hard moves and fake outs.

it broke the bull flag or channel, however you wanna call it.

and now it explodes back in.

I wonder if CPI was expected lower and was trading down to price that in. Or this is more of the real estate and evergrande China issue. Don’t forget Japan is a huge investor in China and the outflows in Chinese real estate stocks could have alot of Japanese money coming back home. This driving Yen stronger past weeks on our UJ pullback.

not saying it’s so, just something I’ve been wondering. Still think UJ is long term up up but the market zigs and zags brutally both ways, any chart will show you
  • #84,155
  • Nov 10, 2021 8:20am Nov 10, 2021 8:20am
Quoting RideTheWave
Well, JPY like hard moves and fake outs. it broke the bull flag or channel, however you wanna call it. and now it explodes back in. I wonder if CPI was expected lower and was trading down to price that in. Or this is more of the real estate and evergrande China issue. Don’t forget Japan is a huge investor in China and the outflows in Chinese real estate stocks could have alot of Japanese money coming back home. This driving Yen stronger past weeks on our UJ pullback. not saying it’s so, just something I’ve been wondering. Still think UJ is long...
Just a pullback.

Cpi was expected to come in higher than forecasted and it did.

Options were indicating that price was gonna move higher.

Look at how UJ moved during London open.

Shot up 50 pips before cpi came out.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,156
  • Nov 10, 2021 8:45am Nov 10, 2021 8:45am
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} Just a pullback. Cpi was expected to come in higher than forecasted and it did. Options were indicating that price was gonna move higher. Look at how UJ moved during London open. Shot up 50 pips before cpi came out.
good points

we’ll have to keep eye on UST10yr yield too. See if it can make a yearly high
  • #84,157
  • Nov 10, 2021 9:35am Nov 10, 2021 9:35am
I wasn't careful enough. Thanks for everyone's contribution.
  • #84,158
  • Nov 10, 2021 10:00am Nov 10, 2021 10:00am
Finally it started to go up again
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  • #84,159
  • Nov 10, 2021 10:12am Nov 10, 2021 10:12am
Quoting Nordling00
Finally it started to go up again
Were you able to get in?

Great buy down in the marked area.

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Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #84,160
  • Nov 10, 2021 10:44am Nov 10, 2021 10:44am
Quoting HTG
{quote} Were you able to get in? Great buy down in the marked area. {image}
Yes and no I mean i am in profit, but i have bought this when it was expensive unfortunately:


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