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  • #1,201,921
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:10am Oct 30, 2021 8:10am
Quoting JotaP
Another absurd concept that Classical Technical Analysis retrofitted into Forex is Supply and Demand zones. With soybeans or cocoa we know that prices move according to supply and demand. No such things exist into Forex, there is no S&D limitations on how much prices can move. Prices move due to other sort of factors. Now, you see the reason RSI and thousands of other overbought/oversold indicators fail.
All those indicators, as you said, can only work in range. And when price is fed up it destroys every indicator. And true, traders must begin to look outside the box and try to take a look behind the scenes in order to decipher what is going on. I can bet that drop yesterday ripped many accounts apart. There is more to this story than S&D.

It's more like some people even try to paint the chart and when people are unsuspecting they smash the whole thing. Lol...
  • #1,201,922
  • Oct 30, 2021 8:30am Oct 30, 2021 8:30am
It dropped back down to 1.1530 before it closed yesterday. No breakout occurred though, so the consolidation will likely continue into next week.
  • #1,201,923
  • Edited 10:02am Oct 30, 2021 9:32am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting JotaP
{quote} There are many studies, it is a question of googling. Take this one as an appetizer. https://markets.businessinsider.com/...why-1030667770
But that article is referring to inexperienced Day Traders, not swing traders, nor positional traders. It does not say anything about them losing from using classical TA. You have suggested that 95% of traders lose consistently because they are using classical TA. In other words, you appear to be saying classical TA is the root of the problem. I am trying to help you see there is no sense in making such a claim, because proving 95% of traders fail because they are using classical TA would require you having to look at the trading results for a period of time of all retail traders who use classical TA. It's best to stick to the facts, and not make stuff up.

I hope you get it now.

That said, much of what is taught concerning classical TA is indeed rubbish. But some of it does work.

I think it's psychological barriers that often get in the way of a trader carrying out a successful trade. Not so much classical TA.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,201,924
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:39am Oct 30, 2021 9:39am
Not trying to spam this thread but this is my view on EURUSD and GBPUSD
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  • #1,201,925
  • Oct 30, 2021 9:44am Oct 30, 2021 9:44am
Quoting snprr
I'm short from 1.2176 sl: 1.2265. I took the position Friday morning around 8AM EST. I wanted to trail the stop, but fell asleep because of whacky sleeping patterns last week. Luckily price didnt suddenly reverse on me through my stop again. I'm thinking about moving the s/l asap to 1.2170, about breakeven. I'll cover on another bounce around 1.1205 area, but I'd like to leave the trade open and hopefully make some decent gains on a break below 1.2060 area. I wish I wouldve gotten in earlier, but have been focusing on the GBPUSD and USDCHF lately....
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  • #1,201,926
  • Oct 30, 2021 10:22am Oct 30, 2021 10:22am
Quoting here2there
{quote} But that article is referring to inexperienced Day Traders, not swing traders, nor positional traders. It does not say anything about them losing from using classical TA. You have suggested that 95% of traders lose consistently because they are using classical TA. In other words, you appear to be saying classical TA is the root of the problem. I am trying to help you see there is no sense in making such a claim, because proving 95% of traders fail because they are using classical TA would require you having to look at the trading results...
It is a tiring job for me to search Google in your behalf.
Information is everywhere, I came across it hundreds of times.

But it is just common sense that swing & positional trading require a higher Reward to Risk ratio to compensate for the much higher failure rate.
This means that Classical Technical Analysis, which is based on mechanical treatment of historical data, is even more faded to unsuccess. In general, long term traders, even when successful and believe in Classical TA, look for other sources of information, then try to figure out an excellent entry point, pray and hope for the best.

Probably, you can make some work on your side and present evidence that the general consensus about percentage of failures is wrong instead of simple doubting for the sake of it. In your journey, you may even discover that naked eye Price Action is even more successful than Classical TA.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #1,201,927
  • Oct 30, 2021 10:28am Oct 30, 2021 10:28am
Quoting JotaP
{quote} It is a tiring job for me to search Google in your behalf....
Your way of thinking is the problem. It has nothing to do with me not knowing how to use Google. You are the problem. You are being illogical. And I am tired of wasting time with you and your nonsense. Welcome to my ignore list.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #1,201,928
  • Edited 10:56am Oct 30, 2021 10:37am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting here2there
{quote} Your way of thinking is the problem. It has nothing to do with me not knowing how to use Google. You are the problem. You are being illogical. And I am tired of wasting time with you and your nonsense. Welcome to my ignore list.
Classical and expected reaction and I never mentioned you don't know how to use Google. You may be just lazy. Or you may enjoy people to hold your hand and guide it to type Google search phrases.

Show your consistent profits using your Classical Technical Analysis wisdom. (LOL). You have nothing to show.

All comes down to this, you can't present evidence you have no credibility. You are just selling dubious products.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #1,201,929
  • Oct 30, 2021 10:46am Oct 30, 2021 10:46am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} It did look suspicious, but I did not want to investigate as I do not care about him and his useless trading analysis. He is not a trader or investor. Just trying to sell his book here, he should be in commercial section, but looks like no one is doing anything about it. His book is something about some 7th wave I think, some delusional things in his head. But either way forexfactory has been going downhill, I am thinking of finding another website where they share trading, just not sure which one... Take a look at the chart, so what...
I myself have not been active enough from a participation perspective on the threads to know if its been going downhill or not, anytime your dealing with a public thread there is typically levels of both good and bad that you just have to accept or not participate. I will say some of the BS I have seen here is not a way I would want to represent myself, this is one of the most demanding businesses you will ever do and to see some of the stuff people post is mind boggling.

I dont know of another site that gives you a forum type layout, you could go social media route.

Well, stick around for a bit though I might have something that will interest you.

60 degrees and out here, to all, GO DO SOMETHING and enjoy the day!
Swing the AXE..HARD w/ Effort, Consistency and Patience
  • #1,201,930
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:37am Oct 30, 2021 11:37am
Quoting JotaP
Another absurd concept that Classical Technical Analysis retrofitted into Forex is Supply and Demand zones. With soybeans or cocoa we know that prices move according to supply and demand. No such things exist into Forex, there is no S&D limitations on how much prices can move. Prices move due to other sort of factors. Now, you see the reason RSI and thousands of other overbought/oversold indicators fail.
there is demand and supply but you have to look for it. it is not found at the out sides of ranges, its found within ranges. where liquidity is found. if you look at a 1 min chart will see where it is.

here is a trade i was in friday - short wheat based on an ma setup i use. i had a price target of 763. as shown.

however, i could see as the session when on that buyers were appearing at 769.25. and got out with a small loss. how can see this? easy, price would either hold on 69.25 or drive through but would never provide resistance on the upside. this is on 1m chart but you can apply this to 5m, 15m hr etc. the key is the longer term the timerframe the more important the supply/ demand point.
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In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,201,931
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:43am Oct 30, 2021 11:43am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} there is demand and supply but you have to look for it. it is not found at the out sides of ranges, its found within ranges. where liquidity is found. if you look at a 1 min chart will see where it is. here is a trade i was in friday - short wheat based on an ma setup i use. i had a price target of 763. as shown. however, i could see as the session when on that buyers were appearing at 769.25. and got out with a small loss. how can see this? easy, price would either hold on 69.25 or drive through but would never provide resistance on the...
Yes, Supply and Demand exist for Wheat. Not for EURUSD.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
  • #1,201,932
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:46am Oct 30, 2021 11:46am
i think the key to yesterday eu action is:

1. someone posted eu retail long positions as being 60%. intial rise would have taken out shorts. fall has taken out longs.
2. end of month book balancing and options

its all about washing out positions and now ready to more higher. imo.

and my ma setup is still valid imo. even more so. anyway i'm long from late friday. and still think 1740 is more then reachable.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,201,933
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:47am Oct 30, 2021 11:47am
Quoting JotaP
{quote} Yes, Supply and Demand exist for Wheat. Not for EURUSD.
If you mean Supply Demand zones, i bet they don't even work with wheat either but real supply demand (like COT) is fine in general.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,201,934
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:48am Oct 30, 2021 11:48am
Quoting JotaP
{quote} Yes, Supply and Demand exist for Wheat. Not for EURUSD.
open a chart and have a look, you will find them. they might be @ 60 degrees though.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,201,935
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:51am Oct 30, 2021 11:51am
Quoting Mcbeaners
i think the key to yesterday eu action is: 1. someone posted eu retail long positions as being 60%. intial rise would have taken out shorts. fall has taken out longs. 2. end of month book balancing and options its all about washing out positions and now ready to more higher. imo. and my ma setup is still valid imo. even more so. anyway i'm long from late friday. and still think 1740 is more then reachable.
US GDP numbers were low (which caused that bullish move in Thursday) Euro area inflation and growth numbers came out higher than expected in Friday and ECB meeting was dovish-neutral the day before that.

I think these are the reasons why Euro depreciated against almost every currency in Friday.
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
  • #1,201,936
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:57am Oct 30, 2021 11:57am
ok here is eu. thursday when i thought it was bullish.
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In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,201,937
  • Oct 30, 2021 11:58am Oct 30, 2021 11:58am
and later when that price point became resistance.
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In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,201,938
  • Oct 30, 2021 12:00pm Oct 30, 2021 12:00pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} US GDP numbers were low (which caused that bullish move in Thursday) Euro area inflation and growth numbers came out higher than expected in Friday and ECB meeting was dovish-neutral the day before that. I think these are the reasons why Euro depreciated against almost every currency in Friday.
that's ok for me. ta in the longer term will always be a measure of fa.

thursday/friday price action was exterme and for me it was a wash out play.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,201,939
  • Oct 30, 2021 12:04pm Oct 30, 2021 12:04pm
hello guys im newbie here...please i need your answer regarding EURUSD!
In may and june of 2021 the volatility is way much higher than now ..
what caused it reach a such high volatility in may and june..and can i predict or find months of high volatility in future?and what triggered eurusd to go insanely volatile ie.,high pip movements..thanks in advance.
  • #1,201,940
  • Oct 30, 2021 12:04pm Oct 30, 2021 12:04pm
Quoting Nordling00
{quote} If you mean Supply Demand zones, i bet they don't even work with wheat either but real supply demand (like COT) is fine in general.
Other things, of course, and yesterday most merchandise prices dropped because USD got stronger, not always immediately seen on lower time frames.
Follow your guts, if you want to lose your money...
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