Nasdaq Futures NQ Trading Diary

I spotted a tiny double top which having been swept I thought would be enough for them to bring back into the volume.
I didn't realise that there were better levels far below to trade towards. Will have to do a better analysis next time.

Away from my trading desk, so going to keep things simple.


plan the trade, trade the plan.

Looks like there is a bit of resistance above but that the momentum is to the upside, waiting for a breakout of the IB.

..took this one too but out at a 1min pullback rather than holding for the 150% level.

I made my money , glad you did too.
Tesla will rally to $1000 so we should see supporting levels on the Nasdaq. FIngers crossed the rest of the FAANGs do well with their earnings this week.

Going to do some forward testing to try and prove somewhat the theory that an Initial Balance range has some meaning for when making range extensions.
0.5x IB = 66% probability of being hit
1.0x IB = 33% probability of being hit
What I aim to do is verify the above ratios' probabilities.
But rather than just showing 100 back tested hindsight trades, going to see if I can do it before the fact.

This is the first in the series.

Trade 1/100



Prior to the Initial Balance, there was a move higher in the Asia-Pac and London sessions. This could be dumb money and we do get Gap & Trap trades.
I have a theory of which way the market is going based on the pre-US session and the IB range, which I am hopefully going to prove for myself too.

Trade 2/100

Short, close below the IB and London open



i'll take that, stop loss placement was to make sure I didn't lose my shirt on a quick reversal.
The rest of the trade was good enough.

I couldn't trade today but I am happy to see a 3/100 come in

do you enter on a break of a 5min close outside the IB?..is your initial stop just below the entry candle or 5min structure within the IB? Cheers.

To be honest there is no set way currently.

Things I do look out for include, what the m5 chart looks like just prior to a breakout.
If I am trading an aggressive breakout, I want to see the m5 candles just before the breakout, go sideways for a candle or two, without retracing too far.
If I am trading a classic retest, I wait for a breakout to clear the IB range and then for price to come back to the range high/low, before rejecting.
If I am trading from the halfway mark, I want to see a failed aggressive breakout first. Very rarely does price test both sides of the range.

I am trying to put the odds in my favour by working out what the premarket traders were doing and then seeing of the IB confirms that or whether there is indecision or whether there is a reversal of that premarket trade.

Thank you - will be keeping a close eye on the forward test. Good luck today if you're trading.

I was late to the trade because of family commitments, but I was still able to identify the trend, the set up and have the balls to execute.
What I wasn't prepared to do was to take any liberties as the risk was as large as the potential profit. So just took what I needed out of the market for the day.
Not bad for 5 minutes work.

Back to the fam....

4/100

..nice..150% hit - are you using tradovate's drawing tools?

top steps web based TSTrader Tradovate, though I do the same on the desktop version.

Nice trade

What tool do you use for the IB extension?

it's just a modified Fib retracement tool. I stripped out most of the levels and then added the 150% and 200%,
So 0-100 is the IB
50% is half way back
150% & 200% the extensions I am interested in

..i was going to do the same but for the life of me can't see how to edit the fib retrace tool ..ha, just worked that out.

There is a bunch of economic data out today, so rather than ruining a great week and potentially giving back a bunch of profits, I took a short on the Micro's at a retest of the T-2 POC. This often acts as an S/R level. I'll post an IB update later on tonight but I won't trade it.

got a sneaky trade in.
Again, not really able to stick around for the 150% level to get hit (or not) so just taking what I need.
This one was an aggressive breakout.

Yesterday's POC acted as a good target to the upside.
150% is just above

Nicely done, Sir!