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It Doesn't Smell Right

  • #41
  • Edited 1:32pm Sep 19, 2021 12:54pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting ccrkk10
{quote} On the first day of each month draw a horizontal line from the daily high and low extended to the right. What jmn6511 is saying that within that month, price will break through either the high or low 100% of the time. Now in terms of strategy, I'm not too sure if jmn6511 was implying this but what I took from it is that the high and low of the first day serve as target areas for interday trades. Say price still hasn't broke out of the daily high or low from the first day, it's a fair assumption that price eventually will, so the idea is...
That is definitely one way to do it.

Quoting here2there
{quote} Can you provide a few examples of what you are talking about?
Most traders have trouble decision making. So, the idea is to keep it simple. The first day of every trading month is a good barometer of weather prices are bullish or bearish, the rest should take care of itself.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There are trades on that chart almost every day.

Even better is the H4. All from five lines drawn after the first day of the month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #42
  • Sep 19, 2021 2:28pm Sep 19, 2021 2:28pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} That is definitely one way to do it. {quote} Most traders have trouble decision making. So, the idea is to keep it simple. The first day of every trading month is a good barometer of weather prices are bullish or bearish, the rest should take care of itself. {image} There are trades on that chart almost every day. Even better is the H4. All from five lines drawn after the first day of the month.{image}
Do you focus on looking for trading opportunities on the Daily only in the direction of the Monthly trend?
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #43
  • Sep 19, 2021 2:44pm Sep 19, 2021 2:44pm
Quoting JamesSmithFX
{quote} I also studied this problem with the shrinking volatility and I found that there is another side to this story. IF you study the history in more detail (the exact tick history of bid and ask prices) you will see that in the past the spreads were very large! During 1990's the average spread for the major pairs is 10 pips! In the early 2000's average spread for EURUSD is 5 pips and around 2005 is 3 pips. Now in 2021 the average spread for EURUSD is below 1 pips including commissions. Many brokers can give you as low as 0 pips on raw quotes....
Yes, you have a point on this and agree "partially". in the late 90th I was paying 40$ commission direct to the CBOT floor. in a few occasions I remember I was even talking direct to the floor trader of our broker on the CBOT floor. My spread was 1 pip.

That changed all around year 2000 with the internet platforms. During the following years (2004-2014) the commissions came down to 12-10$ and the spread to around 0.5-1 full pip for the prof brokers... yes, retail was 1-3 pips.

But still that does not fully compensate the compression of trading range... I still believe the algos are the major reason.
  • #44
  • Sep 19, 2021 3:13pm Sep 19, 2021 3:13pm
Quoting here2there
{quote} Do you focus on looking for trading opportunities on the Daily only in the direction of the Monthly trend?
No. I trade smaller timeframes with directional support from the upper timeframes. I usually trade the M5 chart and use daily wicks for decision points. I would stress that the timeframes do not really matter however. The mechanics are the same. It will become habit at some point. I am willing to bet that your problem is not what you know, your problem is the ability to cut losses, holding and adding to winners. So simple in theory yet so difficult in practice.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #45
  • Sep 19, 2021 11:55pm Sep 19, 2021 11:55pm
4H swing trading taken today
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  • #46
  • Oct 7, 2021 7:36am Oct 7, 2021 7:36am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} It's just fundamentals and fundamentally, forex is complete bollox. It's just a game. Play the game.
Inserted Video
  • #47
  • Oct 27, 2021 6:08am Oct 27, 2021 6:08am
Quoting here2there
{quote} I generally look at recent swing highs and swing lows, and how price responds to them. It's messy price action like this that I have a problem with. And do note that this is a Daily chart. {image}
So many trades in that chart. Like someone else said here, it’s a game.
  • #48
  • Oct 27, 2021 8:26am Oct 27, 2021 8:26am
Quoting OldBull69
{quote} So many trades in that chart. Like someone else said here, it’s a game.
True. But if you are a swing trader, you will need a lot of capital to deal with the drawdown. For in such messy conditions one would need extra wide stops. It's not likely you will get much in return for your effort.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #49
  • Oct 27, 2021 10:20am Oct 27, 2021 10:20am
Something I've picked up on is that the bulk of the swing is happening "out of hours" ie. late thursday night / friday morning. This is the first week in a long time where I haven't done anything yet and I still can't see a setup.. it's the end of the month, GDP tomorrow.. our job is waiting. We get paid to sit on our hands..
  • #50
  • Oct 27, 2021 11:20am Oct 27, 2021 11:20am
Quoting Octapad
Something I've picked up on is that the bulk of the swing is happening "out of hours" ie. late thursday night / friday morning. This is the first week in a long time where I haven't done anything yet and I still can't see a setup.. it's the end of the month, GDP tomorrow.. our job is waiting. We get paid to sit on our hands..
If a swing trader is lucky, he or she might get more than 1 good trade a month in this BS market! There is way too much choppy sideways action! It can be argued that there are many pairs to choose from. However, having more than 20 pairs to choose from can potentially make the task even more difficult.
Learn from your mistakes and march on.
  • #51
  • Last Post: Oct 29, 2021 3:08am Oct 29, 2021 3:08am
@here2there If the number of winning trades are less then the number of losing trades are also less. It’s just that swing traders don’t take as many trades as day traders. If the volume of trades is larger, it’s natural to overlook the count of losing trades.
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