AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1573
Despite euro's brief jump to 1.1585 on Friday after a big miss in U.S. payrolls, lack of follow-through buying and subsequent sideways move suggests as long as said post-NFP high holds, downside bias remains for re-test of last Wed's fresh 14-month trough at 1.1530, then weakness to 'psychological' 1.1500 handle.

Only a daily close above 1.1585 risks stronger retracement of recent downtrend to 1.1613, however, reckon res at 1.1640 should cap upside this week.

Economic calendar is pretty light with Italy's industrial output being the only data due out.
We have a number of ECB officials scheduled to speak in European session (please refer to our EI page for details).
Pay attention to ECB President and ECB's Panetta who are participating in the IMF/World Bank Group annual meetings.

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AceTraderFx Oct 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 112.89
Dollar's intra-day impressive rally above Friday's post-NFP New York high at 112.25 to a 2-1/2 year peak at 112.84 on active cross-selling in yen suggests price would head to 113.25/35, overbought condition should cap dollar below 113.50.

Only a daily close below 112.25 (now sup) signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement to 112.90/00.

Data to be released today:
Japan machine tool orders.
U.K. NIESR GDP estimate, Italy industrial output.
U.S. Market Holiday and Canada Market Holiday on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1549
Despite yesterday's marginal gain above Friday's post-NFP 1.1585 high to 1.1587 (Europe), subsequent retreat to 1.1550 near Monday's close suggests correction from last Wednesday's 14-month bottom at 1.1530 has ended and recent downtrend would head towards psychological 1.1500 handle, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.1473.

On the upside, only above 1.1587 risks stronger retarcement towards 1.1613 but res at 1.1640 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan corporate goods price, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, EU ZEW survey expectations, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, wholesale price index.
Canada leading index, U.S. redbook and JOLTS job openings.

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AceTraderFx Oct 12: AceTraderFx Oct 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Oct2021 09:15GMT

USD/JPY - 113.36
The greenback's rise to a fresh 2-1/2 year peak at 113.49 in Asian morning due partly to active cross-selling in jpy suggests Medium Term upmove remains in progress and further gain towards 113.78/80 would be seen after consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 114.00/10 and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the downside, only below 112.72 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.10/20.

On the data front, U.S. will release second-tier JOLTS job openings. We have Fed's Clarida (voter) n Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) scheduled to speak at 15:15GMT n 16:30GMT respectively.

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AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1592
Euro's retreat from 1.1624 (Europe) to 1.1585 in New York yesterday suggests early corrective rise from Tuesday's fresh 14-month trough at 1.1525 has possibly made a top and consolidation with downside bias is in store, a firm break of 1.1585 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of 1.1525 early next week.

Only a daily close above 1.1624 risks stronger retracement of medium-term downtrend to 1.1640, however, reckon 1.1664 would cap upside and yield decline.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, China retail sales, Japan tertiary industry activities.
Germany wholesale price index, France CPI, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, retail sales, business inventories, University of Michigan Sentiment and Canada wholesale trade.

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AceTraderFx Oct 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.13
The greenback's intra-day firm break above Wednesday's fresh near 3-year peak at 113.80 signals Medium Term uptrend remains in progress and further gain towards 114.55 would be seen after minor consolidation, however, overbought condition would keep price below 114.74/75 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 113.22 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 112.80/90 before prospect of a rebound.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Sep retail sales n University of Michigan consumer confidence at 12:30GMT n 14:00GMT respectively. We also have St. Louis Fed president Bullard (non-voter) n NY Fed President Williams (voters) speaking in NY session.

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

Despite Friday's sideways swings following early retreat from Thursday's 9-day high of 1.1624, as long as 1.1575/80 holds, corrective rise from 1.1525 may yield marginal gain, loss of momentum would cap price below 1.1664 and yield decline.

A daily close below 1.1571 signals recovery is over and brings re-test of 1.1525 later.

No economic data is due out from the euro area countries today. We have ECB Board member de Cos scheduled to speak at a financial conference at 09:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.28
Intra-day choppy swings after retreat from Fri's 3-year peak at 114.46 to 114.00 in New York suggests consolidation may continue before prospect of further gain, however, loss of momentum should cap dollar below 'psyhcological' 115.00 today and yield a minor correction.

On the downside, only below 114.00 indicates temporary top has been made and risks stronger retracement towards 113.64 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand CPI, China industrial output, retail sales, GDP.
U.K. Rightmove house price.
Canada housing starts, U.S. industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output and NAHB housing market index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1618
Euro's rebound from Monday's 1.1572 low suggests re-test of last Thursday's 1.1624 high would be seen, however, as corrective rise from last Tuesday's 14-month bottom at 1.1525 is losing momentum, reckon 1.1664 (previous sup, now res) would cap upside and yield decline later today.

A daily close below 1.1572 signals correction is over and heads back towards 1.1525.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU construction output.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook, New Zealand GDT price index.

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AceTraderFx Oct 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.02
As intra-day dollar's broad-based weakness on return of risk sentiment has pushed price briefly below 114.00 sup, suggesting recent uptrend has made a temporary top at Friday's 3-year peak and consolidation with downside bias remains for a correction, near term oversold condition would keep price above 113.34.

On the upside, only above today's 114.35 high signals pullback has ended and heads to 114.74 later.

U.S. will release a slew of second-tier eco. data n we also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later today, pls refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Oct 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1632
Despite resumption of recent erratic rise from Oct's 14-month trough at 1.1525 to a near 3-week high of 1.1669 (Europe) yesterday, subsequent retreat on usd's rebound in tandem with rally in U.S. yields suggests temporary top is possibly made, a daily close below 1.1624 would add credence to this view and heads towards 1.1572.

Only above 1.1669 risks marginal gain, however, loss of momentum would cap price below 1.1700/03.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, China house prices.
U.K. CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, FCLG house price index, Germany producer prices, EU current account, HICP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada CPI.

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AceTraderFx Oct 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.39
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 114.69 in Asia today, subsequent retreat suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 113.89 (Tuesday), however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 113.80 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 114.69 would revive bullishness for one more rise towards 115.00/10 before correction occurs.

The only U.S. eco. data due out is MBA mortgage applications, pay attention to release of Fed's Beige book at 18:00GMT.
We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Oct 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1655
Euro's rebound from 1.1617 to 1.1658 yesterday suggests re-test of Tuesday's near 3-week high at 1.1669 would be forthcoming soon, break there would extend corrective rise from October's 1.1525 trough to 1.1700/05, however,' loss of upward momentum' should cap price below res at 1.1755 this week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1617 signals said retracement is over, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness towards 1.1572 next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, CBI trend orders, France business climate, Italy industrial sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index change, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index and EU consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx Oct 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.03
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 114.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests Medium Term upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 113.89 (Tuesday), however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 113.80 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 114.69 would revive bullishness for one more rise towards 115.00/10 before correction occurs.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to weekly jobless claims n leading index.
We also have Fed Gov. Waller speaking at an online financial forum at 13:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1628
Yesterday's retreat from 1.1667 to 1.1620 (New York) suggests further sideways swings below Tuesday's near 3-week high at 1.1669 would continue, as long as 1.1617 (Wednesday's reaction low) holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for corrective rise from October's 1.1525 bottom to head towards 1.1703 before prospect of decline early next week.

On the downside, only a daily close below 1.1609 signals top is made and yields stronger retracement towards 1.1572.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, France will kick off with Markt mfg and servcies PMIs, then the same from Germany n the EU.
Pay attention to German n EU PMIs, if readings are sofyer than street forecasts, then euro will come under renewed selling pressure.

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AceTraderFx Oct 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.94
Dollar's rebound yesterday from 113.66 due to rally in U.S. yields to 114.20 today suggests pullback from Wednesday's fresh 3-year peak at 114.69 has possibly ended and expect range trading with upside bias, above 114.41/45 would bring re-test of 114.69, then towards 115.51 next week.

Only below 113.66 risk stronger retracement of recent uptrend towards 113.22 later.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan nationwide CPI, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy producer prices.
Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI and Markit services PMI.

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AceTraderFx Oct 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1645
Despite euro's daily sideways swings following early retreat from last Tuesday's near 3-week high of 1.1669 to 1.1617 (Wednesday), as long as this sup holds, corrective rise from October's 14-month trough at 1.1525 would head towards 1.1703 before decline due to loss of upward momentum.

A daily close below 1.1617 suggests correction is over and head back towards 1.1572.

On the data front, pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, current conditions n expectations at 08:00GMT, then later Buba monthly report. We also have ECB member de Cos speaking at 08:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Oct 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 113.61
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 114.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.47 today suggests MT upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 113.20/22, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 113.00/05 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 114.69 would revive bullishness for one more rise towards 115.00/10 before correction occurs.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand Market Holiday, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. national activity index and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Oct 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Oct 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1603
Euro's intra-day fall from 1.1664 (Asia) and then subsequent break of 1.1617 sup in New York on Monday due to broad-based rebound in usd suggests the daily choppy sideways swings from last Tuesday's near 3-week peak at 1.1669 had ended, a daily close below 1.1591 signals correction from October's 14-month trough at 1.1525 has ended and re-test of this keep level would be seen later this week.

On the upside, only intra-day move back above 1.1650/55 aborts bearishness on euro and may risk re-test of 1.1669.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
U.S. building permits, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, new home sales and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx Oct 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Oct2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 114.00
Despite the greenback's rise to a fresh 3-year peak at 114.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 113.42 yesterday suggests MT upmove has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 113.20/22, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 113.00/05 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 114.69 would revive bullishness for one more rise towards 115.00/10 before correction occurs.

U.S. will release a slew of economic data, please refer to our EI page for details, pay attention to consumer confidence at 13:00GMT.

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