Roadmap - A Way To Read Markets

Thanks for your tips. I figured I could just modify my script to include 8EMAs.


Must be a tough day for all markets. Dow, SPX, even FTSE got affected.
Bond yields.

[quote = GameMaker; 13724723] {quote} Gracias por tus consejos. Pensé que podría modificar mi script para incluir 8EMA. {image} Debe ser un día difícil para todos los mercados. Dow, SPX, incluso FTSE se vieron afectados. Rendimientos de bonos. [/ Quote]

Hi!
you don’t have mt4 to put the template that LauraT put in the page ? Asi prodrias add your things and adapt it to yourself

Thank you for asking. I'm a developer. I used to developed on MT4. But since MetaQuotes now promote MT5 and Mql5 is not backward compatible, I've moved on. TradingView seemed to be a good option, nice chart with minimal setup effort. They also have a programming language.

That's just a side note to answer your question. I'm interested to discuss more about applying Roadmap in real markets.

Dax morning chart. Reasonable session.

There are several Trading View scripts provided in the first post, if they are of interest.

I have been analyzing the system for a few weeks and I have noticed that the most profitable operations but that also fail the most are the 200 crosses, however when you enter farther from the 200 moving average the risk is greater because being far away there is more possibility of a reversal but you have more advantage because you avoid laterality, am I right?

Thank you for pointing that out. Nice MA 200 dashboard but unfortunately not open-source.
Still, it's a good one :-)

Anyway, I've been experimenting with TradingView. Their charts are beautiful and offer many ready-to-use indicators, both built-in and community open-sourced.
But their language, Pine Script is not as scalable as MetaQuotes' language. It's hard to develop a mental model for understanding the code.
The docs are good but community-written code was hardly documented. So perhaps I must come back to MT4/MT5 for quick strategy testing there.
What I'd suggest to you all, if anyone's interested in quant, is to try using Python as the main language for long term development.

It's true, the further from MA 200, the riskier it should be. In statistics, Simple Average or Mean Value is supposed to be the expected outcome in the long run.
Price deviation from Average is reality being different from expectation. Thus, the more risks.

I believe in Roadmap, MA 200 is for trend monitoring and it is a strong support/resistance level (widely used). But trading based solely on MA 200 is not effective.
You need to watch for the EMA8 crossings and of course the economics as trend guidance.

I don't get on Forex Factory much other than to check upcoming news these days. Recently I noticed a few PM's and apologize for not seeing them sooner. In general, they were simply asking on any tips or advice that may help them get where they need to be. Long story short I have been trading off and on for 11+ years now. Never losing money but never making enough to quit the day job. Now I’m at an average of 10%+ a week and usually working 3 days or less. I will try to list below few things that pushed me to where I needed to be. However, I lack the literacy to even remotely cover everything in my brain. Please note this is what made "it click" for me and it may not be what works for you.

1. On my biggest issues for me was mental. For me I had to learn that’s its okay to be wrong and loose trades. To solve that issue, I simply think of my kids and smile. Now when I lose there is no anger. It’s just “it is what it is” and I get joy of thinking about my kids. Mark Douglas has several books and videos on YouTube well worth watching and or reading. If you think you are too good to need all the mushy self-help crap. Well you probably need it more than anybody

2. You cannot control the market. It only takes any one person to move the market

3. We must realize we all see and fell things differently. Just because something works for me doesn’t mean you will see or react to it the same way I do. And that’s fine you just need to find what works for you. If you have read through the forum you will see how I progressed over time and how both Laura and I vary quite differently in personality but yet both make the roadmap work

4. Stop focusing on making money. Focus on proving your system. If you build it they will come. And by “they” I mean $$$


Now for the more technical stuff that helped “me”

1. Choose a specific time of day to look at the charts. If you look at charts enough you should notice certain times behave differently than others. If you just sit down at random times it is much harder to be consistent. So, if you can only trade from 7PM to 12AM try to focus on that time frame. It’s possible that you find out you cannot successfully trade the system during that time frame. If you cannot change your trading time then you may need to change your rules or system

2. Choose a time frame to base trades off of and focus on that time frame. After lots of back testing your initial time frame may be the H4 and by the end change to m30 and that’s okay

3. Choose a single pair to focus on (preferably one of the majors). Believe it or not different pairs have different behavior. Look through the pairs and pick ones that visually look good to you on your chosen timeframe. Then see which ones move they way you like during your designated trading time. Next choose the one with the lowest spread during your trading time. You can search the web for spread history indicators that will record the spread throughout the day to help make a decision. Also see if you can find “Triennial Central Bank Survey 2019 pdf” and let me know which pairs have the most transactions and make up the majority of the market

4. Once I selected Time of day, Time frame, and a pair to focus on. I then review that pairs history. Let’s say I’m trading off the m5. Then I will review the last year of that pair’s history. 1st I casually scroll through making mental notes on entries while trying to guess where price may go. For this I like using the Soft4FX. To make scrolling more efficient I used a hotkey software that allows me to scroll candle by candle with the mouse wheel. Soft4FX can be a memory hog so try demo and PM if your having trouble. Of course, you can use MT4 or any other variety of simulators

5. (Set 1) Now I go through the entire year entering every trade within my designated trading time based off my mechanical rules for entry, stop loss and take profits. I used a ledger to note things like Time of day for my entries, take profits and Stop losses. Also how far did price go beyond my TP, If I got stopped out and price continued in my direction, how many loses, how many wins, RSI values. You will likely find that you have a 50% or less win rate. But that’s OK!!

6. (Set 2) Next I go through all my previous trades from Set 1 but add a filter like RSI. So out of all the trades from set 1 I will only take the ones that have an RSI above 60 for long and below 40 for short. So now we went from say.... a 40% win rate to 45% win rate

7. Guess what? We add another filter to our previous trade set which is set 2. Maybe will only enter trades where the MTF indicator lines up with the two higher time frames. So only go long if our base time frame (m5) lines up with m15 and H1. Lookey there now we are up to 65% win rate

8. Other filters to think about, Time of day, Support resistance areas, trend lines, speed lines, higher and lower time frames, pair correlation, increase stop distance, close trades that haven't moved after xx amount of time, large round numbers, quarter points etc….

It’s a lot of work but by doing this you will be able to prove to yourself what works and what doesn’t, gain confidence and get rid of emotions. You will determine maybe you don’t like your designated time for trading. You may notice wow the majority of my winning trades occur between 6PM-8PM so you don’t have to sit in front of the computer for 6 hours. Or you actually like the m15 better. I know for each pair I trade the average average stop loss distance, take profit distance, how long each trade takes before being stopped out or taking profit. I know if I get stopped out 2 times on a trade I have a 90%+ chance of being right the 3rd time so I can enter without fear. I know if the trade is inline with higher time frames I have a significant increase in Win/loss ratio and R/R ratio. After you have reviewed that pair 5 five or 6 times (that's 5-6 years of data) you will likely start to see patterns like my 1-2 punch. You may decide to watch the m5 and the H1 and now you can see larger support/resistance areas, trend lines and why your trades did or didn’t work.

Other things

1. Stop focusing on the money and wasting time watching the charts in real time. You can use a simulator and trade/view a months time of data in just a hour!!! Something i like to do was review the live charts, mark them up and predict where price may go but not trade. Then check the live charts the next day to see how i did. That way im not sitting for hours just waiting. I can help kids with homework, cook dinner and review a month in the simulator and still get my beauty sleep

2. Don't trade with money until you can trade successfully in demo/simulator and control emotions

3. Its okay to be wrong, its okay to lose but its not okay to trade off emotions

4. If your looking at a pair and cant decide weather or not to take it you should probably pass. Same goes with the trend. If you cant determine trend within a few seconds move to a different pair. if you cant find a pair. Enjoy the time off or even better review that historical data with the simulator

5. Everyday I trade I will quickly review multiple pairs the night prior and choose the 2 or 3 prettiest looking pairs and mark them up. If its ugly pass on that pair. After time you will get good at predicting what pairs will move and where to during you trading session

6. Everyday I'm not trading i run through the simulator for an hour

7. Pair correlation. After you reviewed the triennial survey you now know the primary driver in the majors would be the USD. With that being said if I see a long set up in the EUR/USD and long GBP/USD I will look at the USDX to for a short set up to line up. If it does, I have a even higher probability of being correct. Next I will look at EUR/GBP to help me decide if I should enter EUR/USD or GBP/USD

This is all my personal opinion and what worked for me nothing more. What works for me may or may not work for you. I personally look at m1,m5,m15,h1,h4 and d1 charts for a single pair along with pair correlation. I don't use trend lines or speed lines but Price action and support and resistance zone. This is the reason i don't post to much anymore as i now go beyond just the basic roadmap. But doesn't mean you have to to become successful. If something works for you take it a run with it.

Added some indicators that may help with reviewing historical data

Thank you again Luara!!!!

God bless you for all that valuable information

WOW. Thank you CW. Excellent post, which I am sure will be useful to a lot of people. Appreciate you taking the time to post this. Completely understand you not posting too many charts, as they may not correlate with the Roadmap as set out by Laura. However, cheeky request - any chance you can start your own thread? There are several posters in this thread, who I look out for - you are definitely part of that group.

Take care and thanks again.

Congrats on making it, ChubbyWookie That's a real accomplishment. And it's incredibly generous that you're willing to share the wealth and give back to the community.

Dax chart for UK morning.
Laura's approach keeps on giving.
Just keep it simple as per her examples.

An okay DAX morning - but maybe I could have been more selective?

Afternoon,UK time, Dow. A less whippy version. Lots of days are similar to this but don't forget you also get long tailed , big bar days when standing aside is good albeit frustrating for some.

just want to share
the graph





the report





the result

Are you on the right thread?
Your post is nothing like a Roadmap chart.

Read the last post on this extracted thread: Gives a good overview of the realities of trading and the need for money management and discipline.
( I wonder how many will actually read it)
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...3#post13737863

Really, really peed off !!
Marked up my Dax chart - up to 10am - with text - showing reasons for trades and losses etc. Pressed wrong button and obliterated the **** lot !!

Anyway -it showed a less easier trading chart than that of yesterday. Couple of losers on the trot ( twice) and silly trades against the trend and failure to note impact of "look left" and resistance lines and lower highs etc. Despite losers and inattention I have come out in profit.
Well some days you have to scrabble about for pips; some days you wait about ( but waiting is good) and some days Christmas comes early.
Jeez -all that chart marking up and one button stroke and it is obliterated.

EDIT: Loads of reports out today !!! None farm and employment etc ( USA)

I will have to hold off on a thread at this time. I would like to but right now I'm spending most of my free time with the family or reviewing charts. However I will try to chime every now and then.

Added one of my old statements from the simulator. It's nothing to brag about but shows how with some money management we can take a lot of losses. With a $10,000 account I would initially risk 0.5%. If price got below $9,750 I would reduce my risk to 0.25%. Once i got back to 10K i would go back to a risk of 0.5%. When I get to $10,500 I would increase risk to 1.0%. below i added the risk used depending on account balance.

$9,750 or less = .25%
$10,000-10,499 = 0.5%
$10,500-10,999 = 1.0%
$11,000-11,999 = 1.5%
$12,000-13,499 = 2.0%
$13,500 and up = 3.0%

Completely understand. I know what that is like!