Trading Made Simple | Page 6234 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Monitor for 'Trading Made Simple' system 565 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

Indicators for the 'Trading Made Simple' system 343 replies

MTF Indicators for the 'Trading Made Simple' system 241 replies

Trading Made Simple system follower - Thanks to eelfranz 9 replies

Attachments: Trading Made Simple
Exit Attachments

Trading Made Simple

  • #124,661
  • Sep 15, 2021 8:42am Sep 15, 2021 8:42am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Well that is for those who are serious learning and trading
Here is another publication. A fair warning to those rely on candlestick pattern.

Sidenote, the financial academia is full of scholars looking for winning strategies. Their researches are published, some are free access. Peer reviewed and reproducible. Their back and forward test results are carefully calculated and significant.

Anyway, BigE once disregard candlestick pattern and pin bars. That is not part of BigE’s Trading Made Simple method.

Anyway this 2020 research explored 1-24 candle patterns.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: E91E0255-4A41-465F-A310-3ED6377F6DEA.jpeg Size: 160 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 7C73BF1B-8503-4CB3-9728-AEF6C8E2AEED.jpeg Size: 185 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: F6984FCC-7056-4E7A-A959-3CDBDC550254.jpeg Size: 156 KB


The conclusion after testing ~400 trades for each possible candlestick patterns, 1-12 in length, 4 time frames 30m, h1, H4 and daily.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DB854DE8-74C1-4DB1-9520-3888549968C8.jpeg Size: 131 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 876B836A-C48A-4002-B336-FC7BB25FB4CA.jpeg Size: 502 KB
  • #124,662
  • Sep 15, 2021 8:43am Sep 15, 2021 8:43am
Quoting tommydoginti
Some interesting finding on ResearchGate. TDI being RSI MAs {image}{image}
RSI = Really stupid indicator.
  • #124,663
  • Sep 15, 2021 8:56am Sep 15, 2021 8:56am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Alright. Troll. #TrollAlert Trolls are full of lies that are so easily be busted with slightest fact checking {quote} I switched over to normal candles AND saw the pin on the G/U Daily. Unfortunately it's still climbing and the TDI & Stochs are flat... worth watching but not ready to trade yet. {image}
BigE did not use candlestick patterns when trading his Trading Made Simple 5-method. I also don’t use it. The research in previous post suggests its uselessness.

For example, BigE chose to rely on TDI and Stoch for TMS trade signals instead of a pin bar. He made a very good decision.

His post in Apr 29, 2011

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 782EE1A7-C2EA-4BA6-9D88-6805408FFC4E.jpeg Size: 334 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 83E648B8-0070-4344-B67B-DD1BE9988B3F.png Size: 166 KB

BigE did suggested some very useful Price Action elements in #647
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: C4FDB759-FFB4-4907-BA10-FF129C9545EA.jpeg Size: 735 KB
  • #124,664
  • Sep 15, 2021 8:56am Sep 15, 2021 8:56am
Quoting lddd
{quote} RSI = Really stupid indicator.
Then I think you can say this to the researchers.


Or if you trade blindly the RSI, or any indicator signals

It can be useful or useless depending on your strategy and how to use them.
  • #124,665
  • Sep 15, 2021 8:56am Sep 15, 2021 8:56am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} A fair warning to those rely on candlestick pattern.
Generally fair enough, but I want to comment on this as I have accepted PA as the way to go for me and for the first time have actual gains.

Candlestick patterns are not to be traded in isolation, e.g. if you see a pinbar you trade it. No. They should be traded only at key levels, and the higher the timeframe the better, both for patterns and levels. I've moved from 4H (where I had decent success but then started overtrading and marking levels that weren't strong and kept losing) to Daily charts. Now it takes just a little of my time and I feel really confident.

Also, I am more than okay with having 4-10 positions opened in one month. If someone wants to trade all the time, then PA and higher timeframes are not for them.

Also you are not supposed to trade every pattern in existence, I trade only 3 patterns, and sometimes they don't even have to be actual patterns, just look like a solid setup. Also I trade only reversals, I mean retests (hopefully) with the trend or when ranging, not actual trend reversals.

So candlestick patterns do work but when all of the above is taken into account.
  • #124,666
  • Sep 15, 2021 9:04am Sep 15, 2021 9:04am
Quoting dzimidula
{quote} Generally fair enough, but I want to comment on this as I have accepted PA as the way to go for me and for the first time have actual gains. Candlestick patterns are not to be traded in isolation, e.g. if you see a pinbar you trade it. No. They should be traded only at key levels, and the higher the timeframe the better, both for patterns and levels. I've moved from 4H (where I had decent success but then started overtrading and marking levels that weren't strong and kept losing) to Daily charts. Now it takes just a little of my time and...
Hi dzimidula,

Yes. This study is actually pretty all-rounded, it's 34 pages long. But yes it has no filter for market conditions.

But there are some valuable information as it actually conducted the experiment in a few rounds with variation. For example, fixed and flexible pips at 1:1 RR, Neural network to attempt adapting market condition based on volatility.

So you can get an idea of what is more or less likely to work in your trading.

Trade well
  • #124,667
  • Sep 15, 2021 9:10am Sep 15, 2021 9:10am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} {image} Price rejected at previous low (support) and reached resistance. Simply following BigE's Trading Made Simple. Simple entry and exit rules Considering the few elements instructed by BigE. Enough to made decision for the trade with high odds of winning. 1. TDI green red line (#647 PA analysis) 2. Previous High/Low 3. Rejection at previous High/Low 4. Trend, long and short term {image} Adding crap EAs and dashboards do not help improve your trading. Learn to use...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ede6aef5a2c64a2cee6e62926c2d247f.png Size: 94 KB


Tonight is sporting night and come back seeing BUY hit TP.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 75dbec9d6a603365fb3ff3cca10db618.png Size: 72 KB
  • #124,668
  • Sep 15, 2021 9:18am Sep 15, 2021 9:18am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} {image} Tonight is sporting night and come back seeing BUY hit TP. {image}
I still hold my BUY bias because of Price Action and News.
TP set to closer previous high level because of the brief consolidation. SL previous low.

5.13R

Simply following BigE's Trading Made Simple. Simple entry and exit rules

Considering the few elements instructed by BigE. Enough to made decision for the trade with high odds of winning.

1. TDI green red line
(#647 PA analysis)
2. Previous High/Low
3. Rejection at previous High/Low
4. Trend, long and short term

1. Cross
2. Previous low (range low)
3. Rejection at range low and support
4. Long term is still up. No lower high formed at time of entry to confirm trend change

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6c0882d6aa8232595cc68c741b0b1a38.png Size: 368 KB
  • #124,669
  • Sep 15, 2021 10:20am Sep 15, 2021 10:20am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Then I think you can say this to the researchers. Or if you trade blindly the RSI, or any indicator signals It can be useful or useless depending on your strategy and how to use them.
I was just trying to make a joke and thought this might be the right place to do so.

Use what ever works for you. If it stops working, find something new that is working or leave it.

Not sure about the predictive value of candle stick patterns or the Efficient Market Hypothesis. What is your take on it?
  • #124,670
  • Sep 15, 2021 11:16am Sep 15, 2021 11:16am
Quoting lddd
{quote} RSI = Really stupid indicator.
Not True, RSI is Best oscillator you will find in your MT4 and MT5.
RSI is works well in various market, It is proven with Historical back test with algo.
Anyway, you can see what a oscillators are doing just observing chart, If your good chart reader you don't need RSI. RSI generate good return it doesn't mean RSI generate some new things, RSI track market price. RSI works because their are some pattern and behavior in market, as a flexible indicator took advantage of it.
MACD and Stoch can't do what RSI can do.
MA provides the market's current direction and strength.
  • #124,671
  • Sep 15, 2021 11:41am Sep 15, 2021 11:41am
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Can you elaborate a bit on that? Any examples? I have observed the TDI divergence although I don't take it as confluence now when trading BigE's Trading Made Simple method. TDI green line as SMA(2) of RSI, it has minimum smoothing to the RSI, thus divergence, regular and hidden, can be reflected on TDI green line with at most 1 bar delay. Unless you are talking about equal highs/lows as divergence signals. Trade well
A one bar delay is not acceptable to some traders. Of course everyone is different. I am not invested enough in the conversation to post charts to prove one point to one trader. However, if you are a reader, you will find many charts in the text that I sent you.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #124,672
  • Sep 15, 2021 2:25pm Sep 15, 2021 2:25pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} US30 Sep15 at Frankfurt Open - trade only when you see liquidity in the market {image}

nice target 34800 from 34600...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30 nice hitting leves Sep15 16-9-2021 5-19-13 am.png Size: 23 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #124,673
  • Sep 15, 2021 2:32pm Sep 15, 2021 2:32pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} sorry folks I lied. I thought I was done for today but NYSE bell send a sell signal near day open so I give it another shot and to improve and double Big E daily average . LOL. now I can wait for forex green line cross red line. {image} LOL.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30 Sep15 NYSE one more trade closed 15-9-2021 9-37-47 pm.png Size: 168 KB

{image}
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} US30 NYSE Sep15 buy target 34800

2 more trades closed hitting my target 34800

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US30 Sep closed trades NYSE 16-9-2021 5-26-43 am.png Size: 186 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #124,674
  • Sep 15, 2021 2:36pm Sep 15, 2021 2:36pm
Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} Here is another publication. A fair warning to those rely on candlestick pattern. Sidenote, the financial academia is full of scholars looking for winning strategies. Their researches are published, some are free access. Peer reviewed and reproducible. Their back and forward test results are carefully calculated and significant. Anyway, BigE once disregard candlestick pattern and pin bars. That is not part of BigE’s Trading Made Simple method. Anyway this 2020 research explored 1-24 candle patterns. {image}{image}{image} The conclusion after...
Are they doing real science or confirming their bias?

Candles work just as well as everything else. About half of the time. They are just decision making points, or algos if you prefer. Traders do not make money on how often they win, they make money on what they do when they are right. It is a very difficult concept to grasp I know, that is why most people cannot trade. Their minds will not allow it.

Quoting tommydoginti
{quote} BigE did not use candlestick patterns when trading his Trading Made Simple 5-method. I also don’t use it. The research in previous post suggests its uselessness. For example, BigE chose to rely on TDI and Stoch for TMS trade signals instead of a pin bar. He made a very good decision. His post in Apr 29, 2011 {image}{image} BigE did suggested some very useful Price Action elements in #647 {image}
Nice post. In your chart with arrow is a great example of PA.

1. Big upper wick. Time to be on alert and maybe take some off.
2. Bulls tried again, failed.
3. Bulls tried again, failed again, and this time the bears took control.

All of this happened before you got a TDI signal.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #124,675
  • Sep 15, 2021 2:50pm Sep 15, 2021 2:50pm
Quoting jmn5611
Traders do not make money on how often they win, they make money on what they do when they are right. It is a very difficult concept to grasp I know, that is why most people cannot trade. Their minds will not allow it.
Great answer
  • #124,676
  • Sep 15, 2021 2:52pm Sep 15, 2021 2:52pm
Quoting eelfranz
I switched over to normal candles AND saw the pin on the G/U Daily. Unfortunately it's still climbing and the TDI & Stochs are flat... worth watching but not ready to trade yet.
and I look back to Apr28 2011 Daily:

there was that normal candle pin bar ... 28 April

"its still climbing" means its trending

it took 3 days for the reversal ...

Stoch is useless in trending market, some say.

RSI is also 'useless indicator' OB/OS in trending others say, but Andrew Cardwell will tell his story and love affair with J Welles Wilder' technical studies.

do you see 3 days consolidation / sideways ranging conditions ?

do you see previous historical high 6700?

what happens when price makes a momentum high?

do you read price behaviour on charts and the market sentiments?

study this chart below, look at every momentum high price bar and follow it one bar at a time ....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Big E #563 Daily normal candle pin bar Apr28 2011.png Size: 44 KB


Idiots will tell you Big E did not use bar chart.

#SurroundedByIdiots#
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #124,677
  • Sep 15, 2021 3:05pm Sep 15, 2021 3:05pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Are they doing real science or confirming their bias? Candles work just as well as everything else. About half of the time. They are just decision making points, or algos if you prefer. Traders do not make money on how often they win, they make money on what they do when they are right. It is a very difficult concept to grasp I know, that is why most people cannot trade. Their minds will not allow it. {quote} Nice post. In your chart with arrow is a great example of PA. 1. Big upper wick. Time to be on alert and maybe take some off. 2. Bulls...

bears are smart animals...

Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #124,678
  • Sep 15, 2021 3:20pm Sep 15, 2021 3:20pm
Quoting eelfranz
Good Morning all you fabulous traders....
I started trading full lots last year... tiring of $1 a pip. Takes the same amount of work... why not get paid for it? Often shooting for $500-$1,000 PER EVENING.

iT'S NOT UNCOMMON TO FIND 3-6 TRADE SET UPS PER EVENING.

Sometimes I would set...

Has anyone has achieved this consistently for 3 years > $500 to $1000 with 3 to 6 trade setups per evening.

What about something SMART .. say $50 per evening?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #124,679
  • Sep 15, 2021 3:40pm Sep 15, 2021 3:40pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Are they doing real science or confirming their bias? Candles work just as well as everything else. About half of the time. They are just decision making points, or algos if you prefer. Traders do not make money on how often they win, they make money on what they do when they are right. It is a very difficult concept to grasp I know, that is why most people cannot trade. Their minds will not allow it. {quote} Nice post. In your chart with arrow is a great example of PA. 1. Big upper wick. Time to be on alert and maybe take some off. 2. Bulls...
Totally agree with you on the price movement before the TDI.

The beauty of BigE’s Trading Made Simple with TDI is to it always appear after the events you mentioned, and when bull or bear take the control of market and price picks up momentum and move in one direction.

TMS is not to be the first to catch the swing nor make any predictions at all. It’s to be second but be right most of the time. Literally you do not need to check the chart during that duelling time

1. Big upper wick. Time to be on alert and maybe take some off.
2. Bulls tried again, failed.
3. Bulls tried again, failed again, and this time the bears took control.
All of this happened before you got a TDI signal.

Then 4. I got a TDI signal (sell, cross). It is the first moment I need to check the chart, using PA to confirm your 1-3. Take the sell. Trade like breeze


if a trader cannot wait for 1 bar and choose to risk their chance more, then TMS is not for them
  • #124,680
  • Sep 15, 2021 3:46pm Sep 15, 2021 3:46pm
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Are they doing real science or confirming their bias? Candles work just as well as everything else. About half of the time. They are just decision making points, or algos if you prefer. Traders do not make money on how often they win, they make money on what they do when they are right. It is a very difficult concept to grasp I know, that is why most people cannot trade. Their minds will not allow it. {quote} Nice post. In your chart with arrow is a great example of PA. 1. Big upper wick. Time to be on alert and maybe take some off. 2. Bulls...
It is a research paper that needs peer review.

peer review is typically by 3 other scholars in similar background, identity hidden to the authors. They would read the manuscript and comment, demanding proof and corrections. Their incentive is slightly skewed towards rejecting the paper because research is a tough competition, at least in medical field.

trade well
75 traders viewing now