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has anyone EVER seen a successful trader/trading system?

  • #1,601
  • Jan 1, 2021 9:01am Jan 1, 2021 9:01am
Quoting RickM
{quote} let the market make the big move first before entering when price reaches exhaustion.
Hi RickM!

Could you please give the path how to better determine when price reaches exhaustion? You are using orderbook data and volume?
Observer effect
  • #1,602
  • Jan 1, 2021 2:31pm Jan 1, 2021 2:31pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi RickM! Could you please give the path how to better determine when price reaches exhaustion? You are using orderbook data and volume?
Increased Volume and Extreme expansion on the M1 Chart.
I never leave M1 so its easy for me to spot.
For example most moves on GBPUSD that show a single move / expansion move more than 34 Pips is likely a reversal point.

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #1,603
  • Jan 21, 2021 11:36am Jan 21, 2021 11:36am
I,ve always thought of why currency strength doesn't work even though it shows us what price is doing on all currencies,
  • #1,604
  • Jan 22, 2021 2:38am Jan 22, 2021 2:38am
I have been looking for 30 years for a fully automated system. Never found one yet. Built, yes I can program as well, loads and they all do well when trending but crash out when ranging. Its difficult with mathematically based indicators to get it right. Curve fitting is the evil in this. I have recently moved on from this and investigating a new idea which removes the maths from the equation. The original indicators defined 50+ years ago were mathematical because it would have been difficult to apply logic to them. Elliot and Gann tried and although I find them subjective, just my opinion. That's not a problem as long as you realise that. Anything programmed will soon find the flaw in a system as every nook and cranny that you may overlook when eyeballing trades will be found, even to the pip.
Good luck with your search. I don't have another 30 years but will keep looking and building.
  • #1,605
  • Jan 22, 2021 3:41am Jan 22, 2021 3:41am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Godrich At any one time, there is only a very limited amount of orders that sit on the market, enabling traders to be able to open up positions. Most liquidity being applied to the market during the day is aggressive market orders - in other words these are traders and Algo’s that are waiting for a reason to trade. The problem is if every one decides to jump in and take a position around the same time, the traders exhaust the selling orders on a bullish trend or the buyer orders in a bearish trend. We are talking about a band of passive...
Hi @RickM
I didn't understood how do you measure the waves and frequency of price.
Can you please show some chart examples?
  • #1,606
  • Jan 22, 2021 4:01am Jan 22, 2021 4:01am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi RickM! Could you please give the path how to better determine when price reaches exhaustion? You are using orderbook data and volume?
Have a look at DeMark TD Sequential. Price exhaustion based on closing price vs closing price 4 bars ago.
  • #1,607
  • Edited 8:15am Jan 22, 2021 5:17am | Edited 8:15am
Quoting Spikehunter
I have been looking for 30 years for a fully automated system.
You are right, but I came to a conclusion that one of the problem of automated systems is the developer. Most try to create them to act like human. Something like "lazy human". But robots can do a lot of things better than human. For example it can monitor 28 pairs at once on 1m chart. Human can monitor 28 pairs at once at 4h chart. Yes or yes? So do not create robot that will work on 4h but let it run on 1m. Also robot can monitor speed, volume, extreme values. So let it chase for that because human just can't be so fast.
Same way every thread here is about you (human) must be accurate, consistent and disciplined to win. Think and act like a robot.
This is the way ) may be I'm wrong.
Observer effect
  • #1,608
  • Jan 22, 2021 5:36am Jan 22, 2021 5:36am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} You you right, but I came to a conclusion that one of the problem of automated systems is the developer. Most try to create them to act like human. Something like "lazy human". But robots can do a lot of things better than human. For example it can monitor 28 pairs at once on 1m chart. Human can monitor 28 pairs at once at 4h chart. Yes or yes? So do not create robot that will work on 4h but let it run on 1m. Also robot can monitor speed, volume, extreme values. So let it chase for that because human just can't be so fast. Same way every...
You mean like this. Don't take any notice of the trading results this is a test system on a demo account. The grey buttons take you to each screen. The screen shows for each pair Stop Loss Poss Profit and current value of trade.
Still working on a new idea.
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  • #1,609
  • Edited 8:23am Jan 22, 2021 6:43am | Edited 8:23am
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I mean like this. This is example. Today btcusd trade.
First EA calculate the distance (zones). For btcusd today they are 4.32% each. Next it start to wait if reversal candle or stochastic will appear outside. That will mean that the price reached extreme value. So you can start opening your trade.

This is eurousd today. Only one trade too.

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Here everything is dynamically calculated. There are no static zone sizes, no static tp, sl. Averaging (if needed) and trailing stops are also dynamic. As you understand EA control 28 pairs, gold, us500, de30 and btc at the same time. Yes, there can be very calm periods, and there will be no big movements, but if there will be robot will catch them all.

I'm not using volumes for trading, but RickM does.
Quoting RickM
{quote} Increased Volume and Extreme expansion on the M1 Chart. I never leave M1 so its easy for me to spot.
So if apply volumes here it will be even more accurate. But I don't know how, I'm tryin to learn how to implement them better.

This is the example of reversal trading. If you want to trade range markets, there are another strategy using the same stuff and approach - everything is dynamically calculated. No static values. Even the lot sizes are dynamic. i understand that is hard to see what the world is goin on my chart, but the message is not about indicators used (moving averages, adr and stoch), but about automation.

Anyway I can be wrong, but I think robot must do only that human can't. It's like a car. It can carry tons, but it can't swim or jump.
Observer effect
  • #1,610
  • Jan 22, 2021 8:26am Jan 22, 2021 8:26am
Quoting ryuryu
{image} I mean like this. This is example. Today btcusd trade. First EA calculate the distance (zones). For btcusd today they are 4.32% each. Next it start to wait if reversal candle or stochastic will appear outside. That will mean that the price reached extreme value. So you can start opening your trade. This is eurousd today. Only one trade too. {image} Here everything is dynamically calculated. There are no static zone sizes, no static tp, sl. Averaging (if needed) and trailing stops are also dynamic. As you understand EA control 28 pairs, gold,...
I don't think we disagree. By the way haven't you heard of an amphibious car. James Bond had one and the Army use them.
Take care stay safe.
  • #1,611
  • Jan 24, 2021 6:15am Jan 24, 2021 6:15am
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} Hi RickM! Could you please give the path how to better determine when price reaches exhaustion? You are using orderbook data and volume?
Except order book you also market orders as well as spoofing in order book. But it really depends on the trading instrument. For some penny stocks which are not popular for professional trading firms sometimes order book data can tell you something.
  • #1,612
  • Jan 24, 2021 10:51am Jan 24, 2021 10:51am
Quoting MonkeyPlanet
{quote} Except order book you also market orders as well
I have played around orderbook and volumes while was trading crypto. And I have a question I have no answer. For example there are 10 exchanges in the world. I'm playing on one. And I decide to buy big amount at market price. Immediately THE SAME amount, divided or multiplied on average exchange volume will be executed on other 9 exchanges. How it can happen? There are another 9 guys with the same decision, same volume wants to buy/sell at exactly the same second? Also I have investigated that all major crypto exchanges that plays that way have one traffic exchange hub. So they are somehow connected. Or may be they just have one owner.

That's why I stopped trying to implement volume data to my robots. It makes no sense. It seems to me like a big big fake.
As I understand to have real data I have to find the source. RickM takes data from CME and it seems to be the way. I'll try to make it that way too.

Also I have found that for example if you have volume info on crypto exchange and take the same on forex you can have difference. Fo example on crypto red candles always have red volume, but on forex red candle can have green volume. This is very interesting and you can successfully catch that "strange" behavior. In most cases this is reversal point.
Observer effect
  • #1,613
  • Jan 29, 2021 8:18pm Jan 29, 2021 8:18pm
Quoting ryuryu
{quote} I have played around orderbook and volumes while was trading crypto. And I have a question I have no answer. For example there are 10 exchanges in the world. I'm playing on one. And I decide to buy big amount at market price. Immediately THE SAME amount, divided or multiplied on average exchange volume will be executed on other 9 exchanges. How it can happen? There are another 9 guys with the same decision, same volume wants to buy/sell at exactly the same second? Also I have investigated that all major crypto exchanges that plays that way...
As far as I know there is no order book for FX (CFD trading), because you trade against market market which determines price and conditions for you. Regarding simultaneous growth of volume on other exchanges I think you underestimate abilities and speed of arbitrage. They work on VPS exchanges with <1ms latency and optimised robots (1 ms is 1/1000 of a second). Spotting changes in one exchange and implementing to the other can be done in 3-4 ms
  • #1,614
  • Jan 29, 2021 9:08pm Jan 29, 2021 9:08pm
It's impossible for me to wrap my head around just how fast 1ms is. The typical reaction time for humans is around 250x slower than that!
  • #1,615
  • Edited 1:17pm Aug 20, 2021 12:10pm | Edited 1:17pm
I started my trading journey in 2012. Since then I acquired a lot of experience, working for different companies from trading for equity prop firms directly on NYSE through creating MT4/MT5 Based brokerage companies and managing funds with my own systems. Since 2016 I have traded almost entirely with EAs. For me also was very difficult to believe that my results are not just luck and it is possible to make money from trading consistently ( consistently is very broad term, but lets say, it is to have profitable years and not to blow accounts in the bad ones, actually not to blow accounts no matter what ) I have searched a lot for profitable traders and systems. I have tested tens of thousands of systems, if not more. I have searched for profitable traders and track records. I know a lot of people that are trading. Although there are almost none profitable trading systems, there are still some that I have found. Based on my experience I think the profitable traders and systems are a lot less than 1%, maybe 0.0..something%. It is very, very difficult to be profitable, it is even more difficult to make a living from trading and I mean by extracting money from the market , not from selling dreams and scamming rookie wannabes (this is a lot easier) . It is similar to being a professional athlete in terms of statistics or maybe it is more difficult than this. You need the know-how, you need the mindset and the right ones, also you need money and a bit of luck. I have read the comments and I saw 4-5 replies from 2-3 nicknames that are close to the truth (according to my experience and knowledge). The rest are lost in the dark and have no idea and no chance to be profitable.

The markets are not random but are very close to random. 99% of the traders are either fooled by randomness or delusional about their abilities and skills. For profitable trading you need to have an edge, statistically proven one. Every good edge that remains present with years is very difficult to exploit, and found, since in other case it is found and exploited to extinction very quickly by the other market participants. Finding and efficiently exploiting such edge manually is almost impossible and in any case very stupid idea. The human brain is not good at this task since all inefficiencies in the markets are barely distinguishable from random (and the human brain is seeing harts, dogs and faces even in the clouds...) Also it is very difficult and time demanding to find, test and optimize any manual system, not to mention applying and following it without messing things up. If we are talking about discretionary trading I would say it is impossible to prove that you have any edge and that you have a chance to keep having it in the future. You can spend 100 life times going through trading charts manually and searching for systems and you still won't go very far.

Here is some prove that profitable trading is possible and profitable traders exist (proven track records)
https://www.iasg.com/en-us/managed-futures/returns#

Here are some stats from the systems that I am using

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  • #1,616
  • Sep 9, 2021 7:37am Sep 9, 2021 7:37am
Quoting Fmz
I started my trading journey in 2012. Since then I acquired a lot of experience, working for different companies from trading for equity prop firms directly on NYSE through creating MT4/MT5 Based brokerage companies and managing funds with my own systems. Since 2016 I have traded almost entirely with EAs. For me also was very difficult to believe that my results are not just luck and it is possible to make money from trading consistently ( consistently is very broad term, but lets say, it is to have profitable years and not to blow accounts in the...
any live test ?

David
  • #1,617
  • Sep 9, 2021 5:54pm Sep 9, 2021 5:54pm
A successful system? If it existed then it would be worth hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. There is no automated system and I have my doubts as to whether AI could ever work. Forex is too random and is not centralized unlike stock markets.

Traders have to anticipate price action and they have to react to it. I really think trading is more about your own judgment and skills then it is having a system.
  • #1,618
  • Sep 10, 2021 2:21am Sep 10, 2021 2:21am
I don't know if the original poster gave up, disappeared or is still around. I'm not one to share charts because I don't have any charts or accounts of my own, but I code for hedge funds and I can tell you that being a good programmer will certainly give you an edge against others all else being equal. Knowing what to program is the crucial part.

Since forex is a low volatility environment with large spreads where

  1. brokers stop you with random pauses (even when your ping to their servers is relatively low)
  2. brokers front run you (putting their order before yours slows you down and changes market conditions)
  3. brokers sometimes don't even send your orders to the market (you've been playing in the internal exchange sandbox all along because you can easily be covered and they don't pay any money to the clearing broker for sending your orders)

you want as good an execution as possible when they aren't ratfucking you.

This is for the excellent programmers of the forum who are struggling:

To fix your execution as a programmer, what have you tried?
How do you avoid spread? How do you exit trades?
I am pretty positive most haven't tried enough.

  • #1,619
  • Nov 10, 2021 10:20am Nov 10, 2021 10:20am
Quoting TradeBlazer
A successful system? If it existed then it would be worth hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars. There is no automated system and I have my doubts as to whether AI could ever work. Forex is too random and is not centralized unlike stock markets. Traders have to anticipate price action and they have to react to it. I really think trading is more about your own judgment and skills then it is having a system.

I also thought a successful system/EA never exist but now I believe otherwise.

Don't stop searching.
  • #1,620
  • Nov 10, 2021 10:27am Nov 10, 2021 10:27am
There are successful systems but nobody will give away the secrets
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