1M Price Action System

from weekly tf, since price already break 1.38780 my vision only looking for long trade

Thanks Steve and ITB for your response. Yesterday I just watched, again, ICT's 2016 Mentorship video (month 4 - Reinforcing Liquidity Concepts and Price Delivery) and thought it would be nice to have your views considering that price seems to be locked in a trading range at the moment (from a HTF point of view).

That is also what I'm seeing.

Hi Pumi, I try my best to answer your question. What is the target and where is price going?

If we use h4 chart we can be sure that price will move >=150pips range this week. Step back from the chart and start thinking about all the technical analysis we do and rationalise it against this >= 150pips backdrop. Many members say we don't know what price will do this week. This appeal to rational logic since what price will do this week is a future event.

However by the same token what price will do today, the next 4hrs or next hr are all the same future event. How is it different to know the next 10-20pips vs next 150pips?

If we claim no one knows the future then we don't know the next second as well, thats consistency. We can't apply for one and not the other.

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The next aspect about knowing the future for whatever time frame of our choice, take h4 vs m5 as example. Why do we naturally feel we have more confidence in the next few 5 mins than next few 4hrs? The next 10-15pips is more reliable than the next 150 pips.

The answer lies in fear and greed. When we define in money terms based on the lotsize we trade, we see drawdown in terms of dollar value. We see profits in terms of dollar value. Since larger profit target normally require larger stop loss the drawdrowns become painful in dollar value. Some traders recommend reducing lotsize but the profit value drop as well. When price approach our profit target of 15 pips at 12pips we can wait for price to hit it. When price approach our 150 pips profit target at 120pips its a lot harder to hold on to our believe that price will hit it.

It's a lot longer to wait for 150pips compared to 15pips. That's why we see partial profit taking.

Traders are naturally attracted to shorter time frames, smaller profit targets, day trading and scalping. Fear and greed is the reason. In other words our risk tolerance.
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When we think about the target and direction of future price we naturally think in absolute terms. We look for targets on our chart, mark a few top bottom levels,1.42 in this case. When we examine the question carefully what exactly do we want to know. Is price now at 1.385 heading towards 1.42 or what price will do when it reach 1.42? To both questions there's no absolute yes or no answer. Otoh as traders we can't say we don't know.

How about if we take the middle ground to think in probabilities of more likely yes than no vv. To rephrase your original question, at some point in terms of time and space on our h4 chart this week we think in probabilistic definition that price is likely to move towards 1.42 than not vv. When this time and space arrive this week that's when the window to press the buy/sell button appears.

We do the same for shorter time frame and shorter targets.
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Back to your original question.

If we declare we don't know the "future" whatever that means to us. There's >=150pips this week, what use is our technical analysis?
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I felt this same pain many many times. The reason is my thoughts about the market is not in sync with what the market is doing. Somehow I got stuck with my thoughts and remain hypnotically stuck. To be wrong is normal, to be stubborn has a cost to it. That's why the pain.
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A direct answer to your question.

I checked the charts, the probability is marginally higher for price to drop to 1.36 than rise to 1.42 as price rise towards 1.3920 as of now.

Hope this post help answer your question.

Cheers

Trading 1 minute time frame according to ICT is no different from one hour or one day time frame.

done.
liquidity grab with round number.

liquidity grab with round number.

long ob at previous day low.

Nice one. I spotted that structure but used it as exit of my sell. Market is slow today as bank holiday.

Hope your trade goes well. Cheers.

Hi ITB, how do you confirm that the price wont go below previous daily low to grab liquidity then shoot up?

Thanks BW. I just saw your reply (it was a long day at work). Let me chew on it later. It's very much appreciated.

if that happen, just put through another long if you still believe on the set up.
unless one overtrades and already spent all the bullets.
in trading, nothing is 'confirm'.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13689231

Thanks for the answers

usd weakest during asia session in expectation of aud rate announcement.

eurjpy

Liquidity inducement on LTF:

Q: if price has to go lower/higher, why it comes back?

Liquidity inducement on HTF:

failed to take intraday profit.
try again.

Hi guys, I have just closed a short trade in EURJPY. I am going to share how did I make the entry, feel free to comment if I have any mistakes.


D1
I have been eyeing on this level since last week.

H4
The price broke upward trendline last Friday.

BOS happened and the price slowly go back to the area which H1 OB and D1 OB overlap.