Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses | Page 67 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Major Pairs/Crosses - Trading Scenarios, Analyses & Forecasts 15 replies

Weekly/Monthly TOP Gainers Forexfactory Traders 4 replies

Long Term Analyses - EURUSD, GOLD, and S&P 76 replies

USD/CAD - Loonie Toons, & mostly pointless analyses 2 replies

Lazy analyses thread 56 replies

Attachments: Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses
Exit Attachments

Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,321
  • Aug 8, 2021 3:14pm Aug 8, 2021 3:14pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In December 2020, EURUSD market operation rejected the 1.21940/1.24720 supply zone (red), and multi-year horizontal resistance, on the monthly time frame, but there was a retest of the zone in May 2021 before a southward turnaround. Technically, the EURUSD is under a bearish pressure, although on the monthly timeframe market operation was sideways in July. Further bearish drive will likely see the completion of an ‘M’ pattern around the 1.16000 handle (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly_August 8, 2021.png Size: 48 KB


On the weekly time frame, the printing of top-wicked candlesticks over several weeks at the 1.21940/1.24720 supply zone (red), and a multi-year horizontal resistance, seen on the monthly time frame technically favours bears. Recent order flow context, particularly with the bearish swing that began eight weeks ago, shows the intention of bears to maintain market influence. Furthermore, the fact that last week’s market operation printed an indecision candlestick as opposed to the bullish retracing print of two weeks ago indicates a weakening of bullish pressure. Thus, on the weekly time frame, the technicals give an edge to bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_August 8, 2021.png Size: 46 KB


The 1.23430/1.16000 range (blue) is the prevailing trading range on the daily time frame. Price action is presently southwards and at the lower part of the range. Technically, we can expect further bearish move to retest the lower boundary of the trading range around 1.16000 before significant bullish resistance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_August 8, 2021.png Size: 41 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,322
  • Aug 8, 2021 3:42pm Aug 8, 2021 3:42pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is within the wide 1.19600/1.42800 horizontal channel (blue) that began in October 2016. On the monthly time frame, the February bullish print retested the 1.42800 upper channel boundary or resistance line. Since then, subsequent market operation was limited to respecting the channel resistance as a sideway mode was maintained below it. The June bullish market operation made a strong challenge of the resistance line but failed to breach it, and bears seized on the bullish misstep to push for a southward mode in July. Technically, the GBPUSD is in a sideways mode on the monthly time frame.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly_August 8, 2021.png Size: 40 KB


On the weekly time frame, market operation broke down a rising trendline (red) eight weeks ago. However, there has been limited bearish follow-through since then. Meanwhile, market operation is in a bullish mode, apparently to retest the breached rising trendline or the value area around 1.41000/1.41900 zone (magenta). However, there is an increase in bearish pressure. The bullish candlestick printed two weeks ago has an upper wick, and the bullish candlestick printed last week was small. We may see bears seize on the bullish weakness to push for a southward rotation to, initially, fill the wick of the bullish pinbar printed three weeks ago.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_August 8, 2021.png Size: 49 KB


On the daily timeframe, the 1.42400 area (purple) has held as a major horizontal resistance since the bullish swing from the 1.35600 area (navy) on February 4. On July 20, price action retested the 1.35600 area (navy) and rejected it with a bullish drive. Meanwhile, price action is sideways after making a 61.8 Fib retracement of the 1.41320/1.35700 bearish swing. Technically, the market is under bearish pressure, and we will likely see a southward continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_August 8, 2021.png Size: 51 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,323
  • Aug 9, 2021 3:28am Aug 9, 2021 3:28am
To any trader who may be tempted to jump into the XAUUSD market now, unless you are a scalper, it is advisable to wait until the daily close. The 1750.00 horizontal support area is not yet broken down. If this happens at today's daily close, the market structure would be technically favourable to bears. Then a bearish setup upon a northward retracement on a lower time frame could be considered.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,324
  • Aug 9, 2021 4:17am Aug 9, 2021 4:17am
GBPJPY price action is retesting the 153.00/153.40 supply zone (purple) on the daily time frame. On the H1 tf, we may see a bullish engineering for liquidity around the 153.15 minor horizontal technical reaction area, an area of value that could yield a feasible bearish setup.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1_August 9, 2021.png Size: 45 KB
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,325
  • Edited 4:46am Aug 15, 2021 4:35am | Edited 4:46am
Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 16 August 2021

Fundamental

  1. June saw most of the markets fall as holiday season came in. Since then, we have had a couple of months of no direction whilst smaller participants feel the chop of the an aimless market (me included).
  2. As we head closer to the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium, this may cause for a shift in macroeconomic trend shift considering the current risks that are in play.
  3. As he USD is the world's reserve currency, my attention is focused on what the outcome of the FOMC and market reactions. We may be seeing the market preparing in anticipation for market moving news which means high volatility events.



Technical
Looking over a group of currencies over the past week, I see the majority as having no trend. Looking over a longer period reveals a prior trend starting to stabilize at lows and potentially starting to turn to the upside. For example NZD appears the stronger at the moment. On the D1 chart, the MACD has signified an oversold market and prices have begun stepping up. Looking at H4 chart, all three moving averages (21/55/144) have reversed into a bullish order of moving average formation (21 over 55 over 144 SMA). This could mean the beginning of a market reversal - Bearing in mind that the RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement is due on Weds 18th.


Risks

  1. Details of the FOMC minutes will be published with the market looking for clues about what the fed is planning in terms of tapering.
  2. C19 risks are still in sight, currently it appears that the delta variant is still of concern with potential lockdowns on the horizon.
  3. Asia (JPY even) may be affected due to the delta variant which may have a knock on effect on western shares due to inability to provide semi-conductors.



Relative Strength (previous week)
AUD - Neutral
CAD - Neutral
CHF - Neutral
EUR - Neutral
GBP - Neutral
JPY - Neutral
NZD - Neutral/Strong
USD - Neutral


Watch list
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
I would await reversal pattern before considering placing a trade

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY_WB16AUG2021_d1.png Size: 110 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDJPY_WB16AUG2021_H4.png Size: 205 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_WB16AUG2021_d1.png Size: 113 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD_WB16AUG2021_H4.png Size: 218 KB
  • #1,326
  • Aug 15, 2021 3:08pm Aug 15, 2021 3:08pm
Nice to see you again on this thread, mate.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting monit0r
Forex Outlook: Week Beginning 16 August 2021 Fundamental June saw most of the markets fall as holiday season came in. Since then, we have had a couple of months of no direction whilst smaller participants feel the chop of the an aimless market (me included). As we head closer to the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole Symposium, this may cause for a shift in macroeconomic trend shift considering the current risks that are in play. As he USD is the world's reserve currency, my attention is focused on what the outcome of the FOMC and market reactions....
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,327
  • Aug 15, 2021 3:11pm Aug 15, 2021 3:11pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is in a bearish mode. On the monthly time frame, although the candlestick printed in July was bullish, the interim August market operation is bearish. However, there has been an increased bullish pressure after a bearish surge to the 1863.00 significant horizontal support area (green) earlier this month.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDMonthly_August 15, 2021.png Size: 39 KB


On the weekly time frame, technically, market operation is in a falling triangle (blue). Last week, a long-tailed bullish candlestick rejected the 1863.00 significant horizontal support area seen on the monthly time frame – an area which is the base of the falling the triangle, before retracing to the lower area of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. Technically, the market was under a bearish impulse, and it is being resisted by bulls. We may see bears make further attempt to regain market influence and this could lead to a retest of the 1863.00 handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDWeekly_August 15, 2021.png Size: 37 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is in a bullish retracing mode under a bearish technical environment. The market is trading below the 1809.40/1812.15 supply zone (magenta), and until price action significantly breaches the zone northward, any bullish move will likely be temporary in nature. The order flow context favours bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_August 15, 2021.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,328
  • Aug 15, 2021 3:19pm Aug 15, 2021 3:19pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is ambivalent. On the monthly time frame, the 1.37670/1.42420 zone (purple) is the prevailing horizontal channel for market operation, which is presently at the lower boundary of the channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly_August 15, 2021.png Size: 39 KB


Market operation is in a consolidation on the weekly time frame at the lower part of a larger horizontal channel in the 1.37670/1.42420 zone (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. Four weeks ago, there was a bearish drive that broke below the consolidation area and the technical structure at the 1.36400 area before retracing northward to close within the consolidation area. This showed the intention of bears to dominate market operation and to break down the current technical structure for a southward continuation; this coming after the relatively strong bearish drive of nine weeks ago.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_August 15, 2021.png Size: 47 KB


On the daily time frame, price action is in a falling wedge (blue). Presently, it is making a bullish retest of the wedge resistance trendline and about 30 pips below the 1.38850/1.39460 supply area (magenta). We may see further bullish move to retest the 1.38850/1.39460 supply area (magenta). However, it will take a significant bullish breach of the area before we can have confidence in any bullish directional change. Meanwhile, bears are favoured to push for a southward turnaround after a bullish retracement to an area of value.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_August 15, 2021.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,329
  • Aug 15, 2021 3:38pm Aug 15, 2021 3:38pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is under increased bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the bearish candlestick printed in June broke below the 1.22500 multi-year horizontal resistance (red). Although, market operation printed an indecision candlestick in July, the interim market operation in August is bearish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly_August 15, 2021.png Size: 48 KB


On the weekly time frame, market operation has been largely in consolidation after the relatively strong bearish drive of nine weeks ago. Meanwhile, market operation is tackling the horizontal support at the 1.17090 area (light green) and the bullish candlestick printed last week is in opposition to the bearish print of two weeks ago. Technically, bears are still favoured more than bulls, but we may still see further bullish move in the early part of this week before a bearish turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_August 15, 2021.png Size: 46 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is in a bullish retracement, potentially to retest the 1.18630/1.18950 supply zone (magenta) or to engineer liquidity grab at the 1.19500 value area. Basically, we may still have further bullish move in the early part of this week before a bearish turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_August 15, 2021.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,330
  • Aug 15, 2021 6:18pm Aug 15, 2021 6:18pm
Quoting KeenPips
Nice to see you again on this thread, mate. Stay safe, trade safe. KP {quote}
And to you for keeping the thread going all this time - keep it up :-)
  • #1,331
  • Aug 16, 2021 4:48am Aug 16, 2021 4:48am
Thanks mate for your kind and encouraging sentiment.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting monit0r
{quote} And to you for keeping the thread going all this time - keep it up :-)
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,332
  • Aug 19, 2021 5:44pm Aug 19, 2021 5:44pm
You may enjoy the bearish drive on the EURUSD as long as it lasts but be wary of the 1.16000 area, just a few pips away. Until the 1.16000 horizontal support area is broken down significantly on a daily closing basis, we should not linger on a sell-trading position.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

Quoting KeenPips
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The EURUSD market is under increased bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, the bearish candlestick printed in June broke below the 1.22500 multi-year horizontal resistance (red). Although, market operation printed an indecision candlestick in July, the interim market operation in August is bearish. {image} On the weekly time frame, market operation has been largely in consolidation after the relatively strong bearish drive of nine weeks ago. Meanwhile, market operation is tackling the horizontal support at...
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,333
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:16pm Aug 22, 2021 2:16pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The bearish pressure on the XAUUSD market still subsists. On the monthly time frame, market operation broke below the 1829.40/1766.60 area of consolidation (purple) before snapping back into it. Technically, market operation is a complex correction of a bearish downward swing that began in August 2020.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDMonthly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 40 KB


The market operation on the weekly time frame is in a symmetrical triangle (blue). Presently, it is in a consolidation mode near the lower part of the triangle. The bullish pinbar that formed two weeks ago had no follow-through last week. The technical impulse is more favourable to bears than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDWeekly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 38 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is within a wide triangle (blue) and it is in a bullish retracement of a downward swing, and the 1807.00/1832.30 supply zone (magenta) is still intact. Presently, price action is in a sideways mode at the 61.8 Fib retracement area of the downward swing, and we may expect a bearish turnaround from the area. The order flow context favours bears more than bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDDaily_August 22, 2021.png Size: 53 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,334
  • Aug 22, 2021 2:45pm Aug 22, 2021 2:45pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market has been operating within the 1.20530/1.40730 range (purple) since February 2016. In May 2021, there was a strong bearish drive towards the 1.20530 lower boundary area but a bullish fight back since June has kept market operation within the range. Meanwhile, market operation in August tested the 1.29500 horizontal resistance area (red) but met with a bearish challenge. As the 1.30260/1.34100 supply zone (blue) is still intact, technically, we are still in a bearish environment even though the market operating mode is bullish.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADMonthly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 46 KB


Market operation on the weekly time frame is in a bullish retracement of a bearish impulsive move. Last week, it made a bullish challenge of the 1.29500 horizontal resistance (red) but was repelled, which resulted in the printing of a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow. The 1.30260/1.34100 area (blue) is a supply zone on the monthly time frame and could be a target for any further bullish operation. As we are technically in a bearish market, any bullish misstep would incentivize bears to trigger a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 44 KB


USDCAD price action on the daily time frame is in a rising channel (red). There was a bullish run within the channel towards the channel resistance line from Monday to Thursday last week. However, on Friday, the move was checkmated, and price action printed a bearish pinbar as it tackled the 1.29500 horizontal resistance area (red). Although we may see another attempt to retest the 1.29500 area and, perhaps, the channel resistance trendline, but as the general market environment is bearish any bullish misstep would lead to a southward rotation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily_August 22, 2021.png Size: 41 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,335
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:19pm Aug 22, 2021 3:19pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is still under bearish pressure. On the monthly time frame, although the bearish pressure which began in June gave way to a sideways mode in July, the August market operation is in a bearish mode.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 39 KB


On the weekly time frame, last week, market operation broke below the 1.36800 horizontal support area (purple). But it has entered another area of technical challenge, an area of consolidation that needs be significantly broken down before we can expect a sustained southward run. Meanwhile, as the technical impulse favours bears more than bulls, we may still see more bearish move, but we cannot rule out a bullish corrective move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 46 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is at the base of a falling triangle (blue) and the general technical mode favours bears more than bulls. As price action is at the 1.36720/1.35700 demand zone (sandybrown), I would await either a bearish continuation set-up or a bullish turn-around significantly confirmed with price action on a daily closing basis.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_August 22, 2021.png Size: 49 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,336
  • Aug 22, 2021 3:56pm Aug 22, 2021 3:56pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation is in a bearish mode. A symmetrical triangle (red) has formed on the monthly time frame, market operation is near its apex but at the triangle support line. The interim market operation in August is below the July low but at the 1.16380 horizontal support area (green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 49 KB


On the weekly time frame, market operation is in a bearish mode within the triangle (red) seen on the monthly time frame. Presently, it is tackling the 1.16380 horizontal support area (green). The area has held as support since November 2020. A bearish breach of the area may target the 1.14960 extension area (purple), but any bearish weakness may incentivize bulls to push for a northward retracement.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDWeekly_August 22, 2021.png Size: 50 KB


Price action on the daily time frame has turned sideways as it tackles the 1.16380 horizontal support area (green) which has held as support since November 2020. The technical impulse, breaking down previous technical levels, and the order flow context favour bears, and we may still expect further southward move in the early part of this week. We should note that price action is operating in a symmetrical triangle (red) seen on the monthly time frame. The 1.14960 area (purple) is a technical extension of the horizontal support zone seen on the weekly time frame and may be used as a bearish target before any northward pullback.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily_August 22, 2021.png Size: 45 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,337
  • Aug 28, 2021 3:25am Aug 28, 2021 3:25am
Good to be here
Forex is a waiting game
  • #1,338
  • Aug 29, 2021 2:39pm Aug 29, 2021 2:39pm
Love your signature statement: Forex is a waiting game.

KP

Quoting femiquadri
Good to be here
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,339
  • Aug 29, 2021 2:43pm Aug 29, 2021 2:43pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

USDJPY market operation is in a sideways mode. On the monthly time frame, it is in a symmetrical triangle (red) and presently operating at the upper line where relatively small, mixed candlesticks have printed since April. Presently, the interim August market operation has a bullish tinge but there is bearish pressure, indicated by the shadow at both ends of the miniature candlestick so far printed.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYMonthly_August 29, 2021.png Size: 48 KB


The weekly time frame shows a USDJPY market operation in consolidation just below the resistance trendline of the symmetrical triangle seen on the weekly time frame. The 109.20/110.50 zone (purple) is serving as the market consolidation channel. As a swing trader, I would await a significant breakdown or a breakout from the channel before looking for a directional trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYWeekly_August 29, 2021.png Size: 56 KB


On the daily time frame, USDJPY price action is in a falling channel (bule). On Thursday, it surged to the channel resistance trendline, but the bearish candlestick printed on Friday checkmated a breakout from the channel. Should bears maintain their influence in the market, a southward rotation may follow. But should bulls seize on any bearish misstep, we may see a retest of the 110.50 horizontal resistance, and perhaps, a liquidity engineering further northward.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYDaily_August 29, 2021.png Size: 41 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,340
  • Aug 29, 2021 3:07pm Aug 29, 2021 3:07pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market operation is in a bearish mode in a technically sideways market. On the monthly time frame, the bullish candlestick printed in May was mitigated by a bearish candlestick of equivalent size printed in June. In July, the bullish candlestick printed was relatively small and had wicks at both ends. Meanwhile, the interim market operation in August is bearish but it is about the same small size as the July print. Technically, we are in an ambivalent market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDMonthly_August 29, 2021.png Size: 39 KB


The GBPUSD market operation is in a falling channel (blue) on the weekly time frame. The recent technical prints and order flow context favour bears. Two weeks ago, a relatively big bearish candlestick was printed from the channel resistance trendline and surged towards the channel support trendline, but the bullish candlestick printed last week took market operation further inside the channel. However, last week’s bullish candlestick failed to break above the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. In fact, it went just above the middle of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. As the technical impulse favours bears more than bulls, any misstep on the part of bulls in the early part of this week would see a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly_August 29, 2021.png Size: 48 KB


Price action on the daily time frame is in a falling triangle (purple). Meanwhile, it is in a consolidation mode and below the 1.3800/1.38720 prevailing supply zone (magenta). Any further bullish move may retest the zone and a significant bullish breakout from it may be a northward market operation for liquidity grab. But a bearish rejection of the zone would see a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_August 29, 2021.png Size: 50 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
1 trader viewing now