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1H Swing Trading on EURUSD

  • #981
  • Jun 26, 2021 8:30am Jun 26, 2021 8:30am
Quoting broketrader
Sizing your trades according to your current balance helps you also to keep your account afloat during flat markets, then you decide how aggressive you want to be with your trades, the more aggressive you are, the larger the profits and the drawdown will be of course, I say more about it in post 950. I could experience it from half May to half June, where my indy didn't help and I got a bunch of losses in trends 17,18,20,21,22. All those erased only the previous gain made in 20-16 only and my initial deposit wasn't hurt, then, the last trade 20-23...
Use of averages is good for this: they provide an automatic stop loss while letting the profits run....the fact is that on slow timeframe (daily bars) you can get up to humdreds (500-600) pips profit in a some months time.....while natural stop losses (i.e. exit at the opposite crosses) can happen in a few days time and amount to 150-200 pips ( just using eurusd as a known reference)

So at the end expectancy may be' positive....but capital growth seems quite slow. To make it faster you need to add early exits (hence trade management) techniques.

Don't know whether you share this general view on any average-based trading technique
  • #982
  • Jun 26, 2021 9:05am Jun 26, 2021 9:05am
Quoting tesiag
{quote} Use of averages is good for this: they provide an automatic stop loss while letting the profits run....the fact is that on slow timeframe (daily bars) you can get up to humdreds (500-600) pips profit in a some months time.....while natural stop losses (i.e. exit at the opposite crosses) can happen in a few days time and amount to 150-200 pips ( just using eurusd as a known reference) So at the end expectancy may be' positive....but capital growth seems quite slow. To make it faster you need to add early exits (hence trade management) techniques....
I don't mix higher time frame averages with these 1H swings, or any other time frame indicator by the way, and this is only because I want to keep it as simple as possible, so, only following my SMA is largely enough for me.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #983
  • Jun 28, 2021 11:21am Jun 28, 2021 11:21am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I don't mix higher time frame averages with these 1H swings, or any other time frame indicator by the way, and this is only because I want to keep it as simple as possible, so, only following my SMA is largely enough for me.
I did not intend to suggest any modification of the timeframe for your system. I just made a considerations about the general validity of average-based techniques.

do you think your strategy can be applied (with the needed adaptations) to daily bars?

thanks
  • #984
  • Jun 29, 2021 1:44am Jun 29, 2021 1:44am
Quoting tesiag
{quote} I did not intend to suggest any modification of the timeframe for your system. I just made a considerations about the general validity of average-based techniques. do you think your strategy can be applied (with the needed adaptations) to daily bars? thanks
Sorry, I misunderstood you.

Honestly I don't know, because I haven't spent any time in it but I'm more inclined to believe that it could/should work in higher time frames than lower ones.

In this technique, the close is very important and when having an 1H close on one side of the SMA you could still have one 30 min close, or three 15 min and so on on the other side, so the same applies for higher time frames.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #985
  • Jul 1, 2021 12:33am Jul 1, 2021 12:33am
A first profitable month in a new era of trading !

A first complete month of trading after my reset and the first indication, not confirmation, saying that I'm really at a turning point.

It was a profitable month despite a bit difficult start, the market being flat since mid May until trend 23. My win rate went as low as 28.6% at trend 21-22 with a drawdown of 33.5% from my previous balance peak. Still 3 trends later I have a new positive peak in balance mainly due to a good 21-23 trend.

It proves that the system is resilient during non trending times even trading on high risk and also that it's capable of quick recovery when trends resume.

With this result I have almost achieved my monthly goal which was to reach 3K (balance shows currently 2,8K) and if ongoing trades terminate well I should beat my July target of 4,5K but it's still too early to say and tomorrow NFP could put everything upside down.

On the psychological side, the sky is clear, maybe a bit of greed on this last trade, otherwise no other sentiment that could derail future trades. I'm focusing on execution and learning to be patient before taking profits, last 265 pips trade took 2 weeks to conclude but it's perfectly in the window of the swing trader that I am and in any case, the system and the trends decide what they want to give, not me, I just follow them.

My June trading,

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #986
  • Jul 1, 2021 1:29am Jul 1, 2021 1:29am
Happy for you mate. Keep up the good work!
Sometimes the only missing piece you look for is money management.
  • #987
  • Jul 1, 2021 3:21am Jul 1, 2021 3:21am
Quoting m89
Happy for you mate. Keep up the good work!
Thanks!

Yes, I will try, it's just the beginning ;-)

1 month of good trading is cool and the results are there too but I still have to prove to myself that I can do it the next month and the next, and so on...

Just learning to become consistent, cool and patient while trading, we will see...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #988
  • Jul 4, 2021 3:29am Jul 4, 2021 3:29am
Retrospective analysis of past failures in comparison to the actual system.

Trend 20-1 and 20-2 of January 2020

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Well, this trade is badly documented, I don’t explain very well where I enter, where I exit and why. That said, in the picture the SMA cross + SRSI signal looks like giving a winning trade but it still terminated in a loss.

Then, in post #127 I talk about the next one…

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Again, my entries and exits are not well documented. On this one, it looks like I entered short at the right moment but then went long after the pullback that sent the price over the SMA while the SRSI was still not giving any confirmation, and then when the trend resumed down I remained long ignoring and having no trust on my own system ! My money management was bad and certainly some revenge trading helped to blow the account with only that trade !

How do these trades look today, seen with the perspective of the current system ?

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Here they are,

20-1 Is giving a profit of 55 pips and there is absolutely no reason to have a loss on this trend.
20-2 was more difficult as it retraced beyond the SMA and my momentum indicator is indicating it’s a valid signal so I have to take the long trade 20-2A, then, shortly after, I got a new bearish signal for 20-2B. So yes, this one was difficult and I always have to follow the system and accept the losses, there is no discussion possible about that !

On the money management side, The whole month was still profitable thanks to 20-3 and 20-4 trades that came after, the net profit was of +83 pips in total. So what would have been the result with my current money management which has a risk of 300 pips per trade ?

Let's do the math with a start balance of 1 K.

20-1 1000/(300*10) = 0.33 lots => 0.33*55 = 181.5 => Balance = 1181.5
20-2 1181.5/(300*10) = 0.39 lots => 0.39*-27 = -105.30 => Balance = 1076.2
20-2A 1076.2/(300*10) = 0.36 lots => 0.36*-55 = -198 = > Balance = 878.2
20-2B 878.2/(300*10) = 0.29 lots => 0.29*-6 = -17.4 => Balance = 860.8
20-3 860.80/(300*10) = 0,29 lots => 0.29*-6 = 17.4 => Balance = 878.2
20-4 878.2/(300*10) = 0,29 lots => 0.29*110 = 319 => Balance = 1197.20

So Everything is fine as I still finished the month with positive results of +19.7% profit for a max drawdown of 320.7 (1181.5-860.8) which is 27% from 1181.5.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #989
  • Jul 4, 2021 3:58am Jul 4, 2021 3:58am
Retrospective analysis of past failures in comparison to the actual system (contd).

It looks like I didn't manage to take a profit out of 20-3

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And worse than that, I took 20-4 correctly but closed it prematurely I'm measuring how bad I was at those times...

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Quoting broketrader
Just closed trade 20-4, at what I think, is the bottom of its trend...
What the hell ! Stop thinking and just be happy following a system that you took ages to develop.

Quoting broketrader
..., so I entered a 20-5X trade, a peak trade, not a signal one. I did exactly the same as in my messy trade, the one that made me loss 50% of account but this time...
This time I'm doing the same shit I did on the previous trade, man how bad you were

And the inevitable happened...
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...same post

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...same post

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At that time, I was also trading with trend lines that I know now I don't need anymore...

Let's see how these 2 look today,

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Two clear and profitable trends totaling 116 pips, there was a cross of SMA at "A" with no momentum => no signal, the only contradictory signal was at 'B' which crossed the SMA by 0.5 pip but was rejected the hour after and momentum was gone, C had no momentum signal so it was not valid.

I clearly see the improvements and my progress since 18 months now..
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #990
  • Edited 5:24am Jul 4, 2021 4:24am | Edited 5:24am
Retrospective analysis of past failures in comparison to the actual system (contd).

Same story repeating itself like a broken record...

Again I took a good start at the start of the new trend...

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Only to dissipate the account, 2 posts later

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Money management was totally out of control, 7 lots for a 2 k account when it should have been 0.73 lots with my today's standards (that are already high risk), well that's only 10x my current risk, when greed is over you, you are blind

Today's chart shows that I should have banked a 10 pips profit on that one.

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Right after that miss, I realized I needed to change and improve things, that's when I merged the SMA and the SRSI in one single indicator...

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Now trends would be more clear and easy to trade, but we are still one year from now, so still a bit of work to do...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #991
  • Jul 4, 2021 5:12am Jul 4, 2021 5:12am
Retrospective analysis of past failures in comparison to the actual system (end).

One month later, after simplifying things merging SMA and SRSI, I started complicating them again, counting waves with a SRSI derivative that I thought would gave me better entries...

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Had some successes but more failures, I put even back the SRSI indicator on the low panel, I was feeling something was missing...

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And I traded with that until January when I started thinking that maybe I was just not capable of having the consistency and patience to trade this system correctly so I went with an EA...

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But traded with it only 2 or 3 months, I was bored with it.
And then started again trading manually, this time counting waves like before with the goal of anticipating the change in trends...

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That was anticipation and guess work more than following a system that gives you a clear signal and it finished like before, with the account blown again

When suddenly in May 17 I thought and still think today that I found what I was looking for.
A simple confirmation signal giving me a Yes or No you can or can't take the trade when the price crosses the SMA...

But the most important thing is that this indicator is just telling me that with the SMA I have already 90% of what I need and that I don't need to look elsewhere to execute my trades and be profitable over the long run, it took me all that past variations of it to understand that now I have all I need and that it just remains to add patience and good execution to it to be successful and a bit of realistic money management of course.

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #992
  • Jul 16, 2021 10:08am Jul 16, 2021 10:08am
Shitzky Brudda... You Got This
You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
  • #993
  • Aug 11, 2021 7:24am Aug 11, 2021 7:24am
Nice job BT!!!
You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
  • #994
  • Aug 12, 2021 4:14am Aug 12, 2021 4:14am
Quoting visionxp
Nice job BT!!!
Thanks!

I had to make some adjustments as I found that the last version was not tradeable live, only statically when everything was printed on the chart.

Now I took the time to use the replay mode feature in TradingView and traded the whole 2019 year and got 90% identical results to the static tests so it should be OK.

Last 2 main trades 30 and 31 from July 26 where done with those adjustments and I made a good recovery from them so I'm optimist for the future but I'm still in the process of building confidence in the system...

Here are these 2 trades, there were some losing noisy trades in between that are not printed, they were due to lack of confidence...

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Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #995
  • Aug 22, 2021 11:51pm Aug 22, 2021 11:51pm
Another one #26, 4th in a row closed in profit with +21 pips and next one #27 long trade opened...

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Previously to this one, I had also closed #25 for a 10 pips profit.
Trades were renumbered 31=24, 32=>25, etc due to errors in backtest.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #996
  • Aug 25, 2021 2:23pm Aug 25, 2021 2:23pm
Congrats for getting back to even + WOOT!
You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
  • #997
  • Aug 25, 2021 3:03pm Aug 25, 2021 3:03pm
Quoting visionxp
Congrats for getting back to even + WOOT!
Thank you !

It seems that I have found my way of trading and some peace of mind along with it, so I'm just trying to do that, to trade the system the best I can and it looks like the results follow but as you know, this is not a sprint but a marathon so it's the long term that will speak. I still have to learn to stay with the system during storms like the one that is coming Friday and allow the drawdowns as long as the system says so, so we will see...

My only goal in mind right now, whatever the account shows, is just to trade well month after month and verify that I can remain consistent like I have been this month, with my first checkpoint being the end of the year. If I can achieve that, it will be already a good achievement for me and the account should show it as well, we will see...

I don't know where you are in your path to success but I wish you all the best too!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #998
  • Aug 26, 2021 5:18am Aug 26, 2021 5:18am
Peace of Mind is a good thing!!!!

My Path - I am still playing small as I figure out my system to stick to - getting close

I am looking to make 10 to 30 trades per day (depending on opportunities).
I use the 1hr timeframe as my benchmark and trade the 5 minute turns in the 1 hour direction.
I have had to work hard at eliminating the self defeating habits (Like trying to catch tops and bottoms & pulling trades to early).

I have learned a lot watching you trade and your extraordinary patience. Thank you for being so transparent - Appreciate you!

I am looking forward to consistent monthly profits! In Time....
You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
  • #999
  • Aug 28, 2021 2:05am Aug 28, 2021 2:05am
Quoting visionxp
Peace of Mind is a good thing!!!! My Path - I am still playing small as I figure out my system to stick to - getting close
I have found out that creating a rock solid system and building confidence in it is of the utmost importance.
The psychological aspect of trading is inversely proportional to these two.

Quoting visionxp
I am looking to make 10 to 30 trades per day (depending on opportunities). I use the 1hr timeframe as my benchmark and trade the 5 minute turns in the 1 hour direction.
I tried the 5 min in the past but it was too fast and volatile for me. I quickly found out that my actual life wouldn't allow all that time in front of the screen. Like many, I had the ambition of becoming a day trader, maybe for the challenge, for the fun or the adrenaline, I don't know, I just had to admit that it wasn't for me.

Quoting visionxp
I have had to work hard at eliminating the self defeating habits (Like trying to catch tops and bottoms & pulling trades to early).
I can't count the times that I have blown my account, not happy with the system so tweaking it until nonsense, not happy with the profits so putting larger trades and finally seeing loss after loss, not happy with myself and betting like in the casino for double or nothing. The cure for me (I think, because it's still a work in progress) was again the system which in turn allows for large enough positions to satisfy my ambitions, I don't believe in the 2% risk mantra.

Quoting visionxp
I have learned a lot watching you trade and your extraordinary patience. Thank you for being so transparent - Appreciate you!
I'm happy if what you can see here is of any help, I distill my patience from my system (again) as I don't have specific targets to wait for, but it's true that when having good profits you are sometimes tempted by taking them before the market turns the day after. I accepted the fact that I will only get what the trend is willing to give and be happy with that.

Quoting visionxp
Thank you for being so transparent - Appreciate you! I am looking forward to consistent monthly profits! In Time....
You are welcome !
Being transparent is also a way for me to be honest with myself, when you fail in presence of witnesses you cannot blame the market or anything else for a loss or a blown account and hide behind that, you need to search for the truth and that's when you make a step forward.

Thanks for the kind words and all the best for you as well !
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #1,000
  • Aug 31, 2021 4:54pm Aug 31, 2021 4:54pm
August 2021 : + 168 Pips

I wasn't going to trade during this August but with this new updated and fresh system in hands I couldn't wait to put it on the fire even if it was vacation time and knowing that volume would be lackluster and movements could be a bit erratic and slow.

Finally it did well, and even very well ! On July 22, the account was showing 1K, down sharply due to previous losses, and today, one month and 4 perfect and winning trades later, it's showing a balance of 3,4K, no less than 3 times the initial balance and bringing the account to almost break even. These results are far beyond what I was expecting.

August 2021 ends with 3 trades closed, 24, 25 and 26, totaling 168 pips and an open trade 27 that should close in profit and bring already a good start to an interesting month of September.

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No anxiety at all during the most awaited event of the month, the Powel speech at Jackson Hole last Friday 27. I was just thinking that it would put an end to the trend and to the trade and that was perfectly fine as I'm a trend follower and I'm learning to accept whatever a trend has to offer or wants to take.
Still interesting to see how the SMA was violated (close on the other side) at 3 am that same day and how it went below that low during the event, some stops were taken out there...

Same movie this week with Friday NFP if there is no turn before, but with just more chances for me to close in profit this time should the NFP go sharply against me but whatever happens, again, it's the rules that say when I have to close a trade. Not a Powel, a NFP or any other event! I think I know that now.

I think that I can't tell it better than Mark Douglas:

“You create your own game in your mind based on your beliefs, intents, perception and rules.”

Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
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