You learn something everyday if you pay attention.
- #962
- Jun 18, 2021 10:13am Jun 18, 2021 10:13am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #963
- Jun 19, 2021 3:12am Jun 19, 2021 3:12am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
An update on previous trends...
Again 20-21 resulted in a loss during this flat period. I could have done slightly better if I had closed on the orange circle but I was feeling that it was just another fake move so I preferred to wait a new high for confirmation which came on the yellow circle. That forced me to close 20-21 at a loss and open a long for 20-22 but that signal got rejected just on the following hour by an engulfing candle and this for me was a clear signal of a reversal so I immediately closed and reversed my position at that moment so I had a short position on an up trend which is unusual but hours later that position got confirmed by the price crossing the SMA on the green circle so I was again in sync with the trend and the system.
For the following crosses of the SMA to the upside, A was out of momentum so I knew it was fake, then, the momentum arrived for a second tentative right after B, when the price was already declining so it was fake as well, the SMA remained blue (bearish) all the time, which was also a good confirmation.
Later on, there was a good momentum at C but the SMA remained impenetrable and then the momentum faded before D (FOMC). I was lucky that it went in my direction, but if it had went on the other direction and crossing the SMA I would have need several hours for confirmation so I was relax and the FOMC didn't generate any stress on me.
Now I think, I'm in good position for 20-23. I care about the profits of course but I don't care if they are 300+ pips or only 150+ pips as long as I'm trading my system correctly, the results will follow. I have been reading threads here and there on FF, and it's interesting to see how people try to guess when the pullback will come or that this is definitely a retracement in an major up trend that should resume soon, people are still long or want to enter again long when maybe a new medium to long term down trend could have just begun and they still don't see it only because they are in love with the previous bullish trend. The difference here is that I don't care anymore of that and don't need to guess when or why the price could or should reverse, I only need to follow the SMA which will show me the direction to go and that's all. I'm becoming a trend follower in the purest form possible.
Regarding the account and results, this flat period of May-June sent my win rate as low as 28.6% but the losses were small so only previous profits went away and still not the initial deposit since my last account reset. The total drawdown from balance peak was 33% which is in line with my 3 year back tests and my current trade should erase all that and print a new high in equity, we will see...
Again 20-21 resulted in a loss during this flat period. I could have done slightly better if I had closed on the orange circle but I was feeling that it was just another fake move so I preferred to wait a new high for confirmation which came on the yellow circle. That forced me to close 20-21 at a loss and open a long for 20-22 but that signal got rejected just on the following hour by an engulfing candle and this for me was a clear signal of a reversal so I immediately closed and reversed my position at that moment so I had a short position on an up trend which is unusual but hours later that position got confirmed by the price crossing the SMA on the green circle so I was again in sync with the trend and the system.
For the following crosses of the SMA to the upside, A was out of momentum so I knew it was fake, then, the momentum arrived for a second tentative right after B, when the price was already declining so it was fake as well, the SMA remained blue (bearish) all the time, which was also a good confirmation.
Later on, there was a good momentum at C but the SMA remained impenetrable and then the momentum faded before D (FOMC). I was lucky that it went in my direction, but if it had went on the other direction and crossing the SMA I would have need several hours for confirmation so I was relax and the FOMC didn't generate any stress on me.
Now I think, I'm in good position for 20-23. I care about the profits of course but I don't care if they are 300+ pips or only 150+ pips as long as I'm trading my system correctly, the results will follow. I have been reading threads here and there on FF, and it's interesting to see how people try to guess when the pullback will come or that this is definitely a retracement in an major up trend that should resume soon, people are still long or want to enter again long when maybe a new medium to long term down trend could have just begun and they still don't see it only because they are in love with the previous bullish trend. The difference here is that I don't care anymore of that and don't need to guess when or why the price could or should reverse, I only need to follow the SMA which will show me the direction to go and that's all. I'm becoming a trend follower in the purest form possible.
Regarding the account and results, this flat period of May-June sent my win rate as low as 28.6% but the losses were small so only previous profits went away and still not the initial deposit since my last account reset. The total drawdown from balance peak was 33% which is in line with my 3 year back tests and my current trade should erase all that and print a new high in equity, we will see...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #965
- Jun 20, 2021 3:38am Jun 20, 2021 3:38am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
{quote} In any case not from me, sorry. As you can read in the title, this system catches the 1H Swings, swing meaning that positions can be held several days/weeks and not intraday as the 15 min could be, and this is what suits best my trading style as I can't be all the day in front of the screen watching each 15m close. But maybe the most important, if you change the time frame I think that you completely change the system itself.
- #967
- Jun 20, 2021 3:51am Jun 20, 2021 3:51am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Thank you. I will try to do it and check if it work or not. I hope if I can't get it how it work, you can help me.
It's almost 2 years now that I'm on this one, only this one, trying to make it profitable and I really believe that the time could be now so I don't want to focus now in something else, I think that you can understand that.
But if you really believe that you can make it work, then I cannot be against your beliefs, create your own thread and base your system on mine, I don't have any copyright on it ;-) an I will follow with interest.
But anyway, what's the goal of going lower than 1 hour ? speeding up profits ?
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
{quote} Don't take it badly but I won't help you because I'm pretty sure it won't work and I'm just not interested in it. It's almost 2 years now that I'm on this one, only this one, trying to make it profitable and I really believe that the time could be now so I don't want to focus now in something else, I think that you can understand that. But if you really believe that you can make it work, then I cannot be against your beliefs, create your own thread and base your system on mine, I don't have any copyright on it ;-) an I will follow with interest....
I'm not always in front of my computer, by speed up profits in 15 minutes, I think it's gonna take long, unless if got lucky.
I just want to learn how this system work because I always in 15M timeframe. Just want to compare 5M - 1H with 15M only. Nothing else.
- #969
- Jun 20, 2021 4:58am Jun 20, 2021 4:58am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Thank you for your reply and give people to use this system too. And yes, I understand that. I'm not always in front of my computer, by speed up profits in 15 minutes, I think it's gonna take long, unless if got lucky. I just want to learn how this system work because I always in 15M timeframe. Just want to compare 5M - 1H with 15M only. Nothing else.
I remember having tried in the past, 15 min and 30 min time frames without success, more fake signals so I forgot about it and having manually back-tested my current system on 1H, the results were more than good, so no need to go below, I say that because it could save you some precious time...
But I understand that everyone has to make his own tests.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #970
- Jun 23, 2021 10:19am Jun 23, 2021 10:19am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Well well well, my trading is going faster than my posting...
20-23 Terminated with +265 pips from a peak of +340+ pips and with it, all previous losses erased and better than that, a new peak in equity reached.
After what I logically entered 20-24 long with a short bias but never mind, what I need to do is to follow the trends, nothing else but again, like in post 963, a new high got rejected by an engulfing candle so I prematurely decided to close my 20-24 long for a +24 pips profit and try 20-25 short which is not yet born.
I'm again in that contradictory situation of being short in a long trend and this is because I assume that we are just retracing 20-23 and that maybe the down move could resume very soon...
These 2 positive trades bring back my win rate to something less frightful.
20-23 Terminated with +265 pips from a peak of +340+ pips and with it, all previous losses erased and better than that, a new peak in equity reached.
After what I logically entered 20-24 long with a short bias but never mind, what I need to do is to follow the trends, nothing else but again, like in post 963, a new high got rejected by an engulfing candle so I prematurely decided to close my 20-24 long for a +24 pips profit and try 20-25 short which is not yet born.
I'm again in that contradictory situation of being short in a long trend and this is because I assume that we are just retracing 20-23 and that maybe the down move could resume very soon...
These 2 positive trades bring back my win rate to something less frightful.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
{quote} No problem, just Remember that I also use a private momentum indicator that is not published here to confirm my signals which are quite simple, long when 1H closes above SMA and short when 1H candle closes below SMA, with this, you have 80% of the system, then I think that the momentum confirmation can be easily reverse engineered simply by comparing my entries that are published here with any free momentum or oscillator indication. I remember having tried in the past, 15 min and 30 min time frames without success, more fake signals so I...
- #972
- Jun 25, 2021 10:05am Jun 25, 2021 10:05am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Thank you broketrader. I've been learning about swing and also thank you very much for the advise. It's really save a lot of my time and I can do something else beside watching the chart all days. I will share my result later
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #974
- Jun 25, 2021 11:32am Jun 25, 2021 11:32am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #976
- Edited 3:59am Jun 26, 2021 3:45am | Edited 3:59am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Thanks...I guess this additional indi does not prevent the system to enter once per swing (i.e. having a case with a swing without any entry)
As an example, I took one big trend which was one of the worst seen lately in question of fake entries, it's trend 20-12 of last April.
One big move of +320 pips from end to end but with 6 false crosses beyond the SMA which resulted in a loss off 120 pips, still the trend resulted in a net profit of 200 pips!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #979
- Edited 7:48am Jun 26, 2021 7:27am | Edited 7:48am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
{quote} Thanks for the reply. Are you saying that the secret indi avoided you to exit at any of the fake crosses during the 20-12 trend?
{quote} My technique does not filter out the average crosses....but I use a trade management to minimize the losses in case of fake signals
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
- #980
- Jun 26, 2021 7:42am Jun 26, 2021 7:42am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,696 Posts
Sizing your trades according to your current balance helps you also to keep your account afloat during flat markets, then you decide how aggressive you want to be with your trades, the more aggressive you are, the larger the profits and the drawdown will be of course, I say more about it in post 950.
I could experience it from half May to half June, where my indy didn't help and I got a bunch of losses in trends 17,18,20,21,22. All those erased only the previous gain made in 20-16 only and my initial deposit wasn't hurt, then, the last trade 20-23 put back everything at the right place with a new high in equity.
I could experience it from half May to half June, where my indy didn't help and I got a bunch of losses in trends 17,18,20,21,22. All those erased only the previous gain made in 20-16 only and my initial deposit wasn't hurt, then, the last trade 20-23 put back everything at the right place with a new high in equity.
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.