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  • #138,121
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:02am Aug 17, 2021 11:02am
Quoting Robinhood1
Looking pretty bad{image}
Manipulation before the news?
  • #138,122
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:05am Aug 17, 2021 11:05am
Quoting fxsport
As for where the EU goes NOW? {image} I'm a simple guy. Most days the range for EU is around 30-40 pips. On big move days it goes up to 70-80 pips (August 6 & 13 - 81-78 pips respectfully). Today it's moved 73 pips. So what does that mean to me? I believe that EU BREAKS down thru 1.1713 and I'm targeting 1.1650 LONGER TERM. Today? Well I'm not going to short anymore but I will place sell orders at 1.1740 up till 1.1750ish area. In the past I used to go long from here hoping it would get to 1.1740 before selling but all too frequently I lost $ doing...
London close = unwinding of shorts. News effect now in place.
  • #138,123
  • Edited 11:30am Aug 17, 2021 11:16am | Edited 11:30am
Quoting 0pticFalleN
Dont you guys get tired of people saying "11525 in a few days to 2 weeks", without further explanation and when the last time the price was there, was more than a year ago? If u are bold enough to make such claims, just ground it with arguments...
I think anyone posting targets/estimates should provide reasoning for the sake of learning. Having said that, the 200 pip drop to 1.152x MAY not be that crazy after all. Here's why I think its NOT IMPOSSIBLE (note that I'm not saying it's likely...that I don't yet know).

200 pips...big move, but we've dropped a little under that in the last 48 hours alone, so that kind of a drop would not be without precedent. EDIT: **we've dropped about half as much**

The last time the price was there was about a year ago, yes, but the run up to that level was in a matter of a few short, volatile weeks. The gap between that and the time before that was even greater 18 months (also, we're much closer to the corresponding DXY region now than we were the last 2 times)...there was a rare mega-fluctuation because of COVID driving policy and economic data all over the place. So given unusual circumstances, price can jump a lot very quickly (duh...right?)...so do we have unusual circumstances on the horizon? I think yes, technically and fundamentally.

Technically, there's a kind of head-and-shoulder/rising channel pattern on the weekly that's begging to be broken downward (and yet I'm not usually one to pay a lot of attention to technicals on that TF). A bunch of momentum indicators on the daily indicate room for more of a push downward on this pair soon, but that also breaks this head-and-shoulder/rising channel...and that could, in turn, easily trigger a further downward push through 1.152x.

Fundamentally, 2 words. Jackson Hole. It could be strongly argued that it's high time the American printers caught a breather.

WILL the pair actually do this? Let's just say I'd be having the finest jumbo shrimp and Alaskan salmon 8 days a week if I knew that. I'd even have fresh, big-ass West Indian pomfret flown in because....Pomfret. Okay now I'm hungry. But please do shoot holes in my thoughts...I'd love to learn.
  • #138,124
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:16am Aug 17, 2021 11:16am
Quoting andvk74
{quote} Manipulation before the news?
Manipulation:
1.- 99% lose on their own at the same time the algorithm goes hunting for stops.
2.- 0.99% who manage to win are personally tracked. Mobile and computer hacked.
3.- 0.01% who despite overcome articles 1 and 2 are probably banned from the game with all sorts of tricks.
POSTMASTER
  • #138,125
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:18am Aug 17, 2021 11:18am
Quoting crackmyback
{quote} I think anyone posting targets/estimates should provide reasoning for the sake of learning. Having said that, the 200 pip drop to 1.152x MAY not be that crazy after all. Here's why I think its NOT IMPOSSIBLE (note that I'm not saying it's likely...that I don't yet know). 200 pips...big move, but we've dropped a little under that in the last 48 hours alone, so that kind of a drop would not be without precedent. The last time the price was there was about a year ago, yes, but the run up to that level was in a matter of a few short, volatile...
8 days a week.
  • #138,126
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:23am Aug 17, 2021 11:23am
Quoting crackmyback
{quote} I think anyone posting targets/estimates should provide reasoning for the sake of learning. Having said that, the 200 pip drop to 1.152x MAY not be that crazy after all. Here's why I think its NOT IMPOSSIBLE (note that I'm not saying it's likely...that I don't yet know). 200 pips...big move, but we've dropped a little under that in the last 48 hours alone, so that kind of a drop would not be without precedent. The last time the price was there was about a year ago, yes, but the run up to that level was in a matter of a few short, volatile...
I can agree with most of your explanation except the first paragraph. Traders are not here to teach otherwise that implies responsability. We are here because we share the same hobby and hopes. some think the market will go down others up. At least its how i see it.
POSTMASTER
  • #138,127
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:27am Aug 17, 2021 11:27am
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} I can agree with most of your explanaition except the first paragraph. Traders are not here to teach otherwise that implies responsability. We are here because we share the same hobby and hopes. some think the market will go down other up. At least its how i see it.
Yeah most of us likely don't know enough to teach. But "teach" implies "here's how it's done...do it and it'll work for you". We're here to say "here's how and why I think it'll work...you decide what works for you". If that's not the case then why does anyone post? But that's just how I feel.
  • #138,128
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:28am Aug 17, 2021 11:28am
bounce from 11709 is too weak
POSTMASTER
  • #138,129
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:38am Aug 17, 2021 11:38am
Quoting Kyuu
I'm short at 1.17908 from last week, but here's my view on the 4H: Bulls had a nice bounce which they wanted at my arrow (roughly 1.17669) which was the previous high. However, my 2nd following arrow shows bearish rejection which is not what bulls wanted. The volume is dropping and this is definitely not where bulls want to close. Therefore I am favoring bears. However it's only Monday and we have no significantly weekly high, so parts of me feels like we'll have some bull run sometime this week... Ideally , the double bottom on the weekly doesn't...
still holding my shirt from 1.17908. My gut feeling tells me we’re gonna impulse a lot further down, but the next bounce will be the start of a massive even bigger bull impulse wave.

I may look take profit , but not looking to long anytime soon but when I do, I’ll be holding that for a while. Let’s see how much gas the bears have in the tank
  • #138,130
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:38am Aug 17, 2021 11:38am
Quoting crackmyback
{quote} Yeah most of us likely don't know enough to teach. But "teach" implies "here's how it's done...do it and it'll work for you". We're here to say "here's how and why I think it'll work...you decide what works for you". If that's not the case then why does anyone post? But that's just how I feel.
Maybe. I am not sure whether i am good enough to tell how to trade but i have told my strategies in the past and when failed because market don´t behave the same over periods you are nailed man. I have made 15000$ from 1000$ and 9000$ from 200$ in less then 2 months till it all colapsed. you can see the chart on my TE. The problem is our species (human). no compasion for the weak.
POSTMASTER
  • #138,131
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:48am Aug 17, 2021 11:48am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} Just be prepared for 1.16xx levels.. but to do that bears first have to break below monthly support: 1.1713
Thanks Ata for your analysis, I was submerged under water since last weekend hahaha but today I breathed again hahahaha. I will not be greedy I closed my operations in positive. Thank you men for your contributions. I always take risks without bothering anyone. The maximum
  • #138,132
  • Aug 17, 2021 11:57am Aug 17, 2021 11:57am
My next short entry would be at 1.16960 TP at about 75 pips, but keep booking profits on the way, this setup is valid only if we get a retest in the zone marked on the chart... Hope this helps and correct me if I'm wrong anywhere.
Quote
success comes from learning from your mistakes and not repeating them agian
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Learn from others, but trade your own edge
  • #138,133
  • Aug 17, 2021 12:04pm Aug 17, 2021 12:04pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} Maybe. I am not sure whether i am good enough to tell how to trade but i have told my strategies in the past and when failed because market don´t behave the same over periods you are nailed man. I have made 15000$ from 1000$ and 9000$ from 200$ in less then 2 months till it all colapsed. you can see the chart on my TE. The problem is our species (human). no compasion for the weak.
Anyone's free to correct me on this, but I think it can be safely said that most folks here want to learn from winning AND losing trades, whether their own or someone else's. At least I'd want to. And I think there's little shame in eating my hat if I've been wrong publicly as long as I'm also not a sore winner.
  • #138,134
  • Aug 17, 2021 12:11pm Aug 17, 2021 12:11pm
Quoting Robinhood1
{quote} I presume your are long?
No my friend, Im shorting but I believe there are some gaps that must be filled @20900 before happening another big drop like this one... It might hit that level u mentioned, but I dont see it coming in such short period UNLESS some extremely bad news come out for Euro and very good for Dollar. But thats just my vision
A vision without action is merely a dream.
  • #138,135
  • Aug 17, 2021 12:52pm Aug 17, 2021 12:52pm
Quoting 0pticFalleN
{quote} No my friend, Im shorting but I believe there are some gaps that must be filled @20900 before happening another big drop like this one... It might hit that level u mentioned, but I dont see it coming in such short period UNLESS some extremely bad news come out for Euro and very good for Dollar. But thats just my vision
I am a swing trader. trades for 3 days to 6 weeks or more. I never was able to catch more winning trades than losing ones in a 10,20 30 pip range so it all about which profile you are more confortable my freind.
POSTMASTER
  • #138,136
  • Aug 17, 2021 12:56pm Aug 17, 2021 12:56pm
Markets are Random.

A Simple Example

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Attached Image


US Data Results Negative then also......
  • #138,137
  • Aug 17, 2021 1:05pm Aug 17, 2021 1:05pm
Daily S/R Levels for Wednesday

  1. Remember that we are still inside a falling (descending) wedge and bears have the upper hand!
  2. For now, 1.1692 area is my nearest support but with momentum maybe it can reach 1.1645 levels.. Nothing for sure yet.. Bears definitely need to flow in the rhythm and create some momentum to break lower.. Delays will only be in favor of bulls!
  3. Bulls still can and actually should attack 1.1730 and maybe 1.1755 (and even 1.1777 if there is momentum) but for now I see no reason to buy this temporary bottom.. I would like to keep selling pullbacks as long as H4 or H1 candles are, let's say, roughly below 1.1740!

I hope it helps

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #138,138
  • Aug 17, 2021 1:07pm Aug 17, 2021 1:07pm
Quoting lucky1359
Markets are Random. A Simple Example {image} {image} US Data Results Negative then also......
You said that before.. I beg to differ a little.. Yes markets have a lot of noise.. But a successful trader must focus on patterns.. Where the next pattern will occur might be random BUT once pattern appears, trading it is not random! If markets were 100% random, it wouldn't be 99% of traders who are consistently losing.. it would be 100%... My two cents
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #138,139
  • Aug 17, 2021 1:18pm Aug 17, 2021 1:18pm
Truly said Finding Patterns

I stick to my Fibo D-W-M and its Confluence Zones A little more complicated
Then check Patterns then Trade

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  • #138,140
  • Aug 17, 2021 1:27pm Aug 17, 2021 1:27pm
There is a lot of sell pressure coming from 1.1715/25.. However, thanks to low volume bulls can still act hopeful inside Asian session! But for real success, they need an H4 candle close above 1.1755.. For now, that seems unlikely!

I am calling it a day folks.. Hopefully I continue after London opens.. Cheers and happy trading
Focus only on what truly matters!
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