Looking pretty bad{image}
- #138,122
- Aug 17, 2021 9:05am Aug 17, 2021 9:05am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Doing It In Dubai | 2,457 Posts
- #138,123
- Edited 9:30am Aug 17, 2021 9:16am | Edited 9:30am
- | Joined Mar 2011 | Status: Trader | 60 Posts
Dont you guys get tired of people saying "11525 in a few days to 2 weeks", without further explanation and when the last time the price was there, was more than a year ago? If u are bold enough to make such claims, just ground it with arguments...
200 pips...big move, but we've dropped a little under that in the last 48 hours alone, so that kind of a drop would not be without precedent. EDIT: **we've dropped about half as much**
The last time the price was there was about a year ago, yes, but the run up to that level was in a matter of a few short, volatile weeks. The gap between that and the time before that was even greater 18 months (also, we're much closer to the corresponding DXY region now than we were the last 2 times)...there was a rare mega-fluctuation because of COVID driving policy and economic data all over the place. So given unusual circumstances, price can jump a lot very quickly (duh...right?)...so do we have unusual circumstances on the horizon? I think yes, technically and fundamentally.
Technically, there's a kind of head-and-shoulder/rising channel pattern on the weekly that's begging to be broken downward (and yet I'm not usually one to pay a lot of attention to technicals on that TF). A bunch of momentum indicators on the daily indicate room for more of a push downward on this pair soon, but that also breaks this head-and-shoulder/rising channel...and that could, in turn, easily trigger a further downward push through 1.152x.
Fundamentally, 2 words. Jackson Hole. It could be strongly argued that it's high time the American printers caught a breather.
WILL the pair actually do this? Let's just say I'd be having the finest jumbo shrimp and Alaskan salmon 8 days a week if I knew that. I'd even have fresh, big-ass West Indian pomfret flown in because....Pomfret. Okay now I'm hungry. But please do shoot holes in my thoughts...I'd love to learn.
- #138,124
- Aug 17, 2021 9:16am Aug 17, 2021 9:16am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Postmaster | 11,928 Posts
POSTMASTER
- #138,125
- Aug 17, 2021 9:18am Aug 17, 2021 9:18am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Doing It In Dubai | 2,457 Posts
{quote} I think anyone posting targets/estimates should provide reasoning for the sake of learning. Having said that, the 200 pip drop to 1.152x MAY not be that crazy after all. Here's why I think its NOT IMPOSSIBLE (note that I'm not saying it's likely...that I don't yet know). 200 pips...big move, but we've dropped a little under that in the last 48 hours alone, so that kind of a drop would not be without precedent. The last time the price was there was about a year ago, yes, but the run up to that level was in a matter of a few short, volatile...
- #138,126
- Aug 17, 2021 9:23am Aug 17, 2021 9:23am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Postmaster | 11,928 Posts
POSTMASTER
- #138,128
- Aug 17, 2021 9:28am Aug 17, 2021 9:28am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Postmaster | 11,928 Posts
POSTMASTER
- #138,130
- Aug 17, 2021 9:38am Aug 17, 2021 9:38am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Postmaster | 11,928 Posts
{quote} Yeah most of us likely don't know enough to teach. But "teach" implies "here's how it's done...do it and it'll work for you". We're here to say "here's how and why I think it'll work...you decide what works for you". If that's not the case then why does anyone post? But that's just how I feel.
POSTMASTER
- #138,131
- Aug 17, 2021 9:48am Aug 17, 2021 9:48am
{quote} Just be prepared for 1.16xx levels.. but to do that bears first have to break below monthly support: 1.1713
- #138,132
- Aug 17, 2021 9:57am Aug 17, 2021 9:57am
My next short entry would be at 1.16960 TP at about 75 pips, but keep booking profits on the way, this setup is valid only if we get a retest in the zone marked on the chart... Hope this helps and correct me if I'm wrong anywhere
.
.success comes from learning from your mistakes and not repeating them agian
Learn from others, but trade your own edge
{quote} Maybe. I am not sure whether i am good enough to tell how to trade but i have told my strategies in the past and when failed because market donīt behave the same over periods you are nailed man. I have made 15000$ from 1000$ and 9000$ from 200$ in less then 2 months till it all colapsed. you can see the chart on my TE. The problem is our species (human). no compasion for the weak.
{quote}I presume your are long?
A vision without action is merely a dream.
- #138,135
- Aug 17, 2021 10:52am Aug 17, 2021 10:52am
- Joined Dec 2011 | Status: Postmaster | 11,928 Posts
{quote} No my friend, Im shorting but I believe there are some gaps that must be filled @20900 before happening another big drop like this one... It might hit that level u mentioned, but I dont see it coming in such short period UNLESS some extremely bad news come out for Euro and very good for Dollar. But thats just my vision
POSTMASTER
- #138,136
- Aug 17, 2021 10:56am Aug 17, 2021 10:56am
- Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,051 Posts
Markets are Random.
A Simple Example
US Data Results Negative then also......
A Simple Example
US Data Results Negative then also......
- #138,137
- Aug 17, 2021 11:05am Aug 17, 2021 11:05am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,148 Posts
Daily S/R Levels for Wednesday
- Remember that we are still inside a falling (descending) wedge and bears have the upper hand!
- For now, 1.1692 area is my nearest support but with momentum maybe it can reach 1.1645 levels.. Nothing for sure yet.. Bears definitely need to flow in the rhythm and create some momentum to break lower.. Delays will only be in favor of bulls!
- Bulls still can and actually should attack 1.1730 and maybe 1.1755 (and even 1.1777 if there is momentum) but for now I see no reason to buy this temporary bottom.. I would like to keep selling pullbacks as long as H4 or H1 candles are, let's say, roughly below 1.1740!
I hope it helps
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #138,138
- Aug 17, 2021 11:07am Aug 17, 2021 11:07am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,148 Posts
Markets are Random. A Simple Example {image} {image} US Data Results Negative then also......
My two cents Focus only on what truly matters!
- #138,139
- Aug 17, 2021 11:18am Aug 17, 2021 11:18am
- Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 1,051 Posts
Truly said Finding Patterns 
I stick to my Fibo D-W-M and its Confluence Zones A little more complicated
Then check Patterns then Trade
I stick to my Fibo D-W-M and its Confluence Zones A little more complicated
Then check Patterns then Trade
- #138,140
- Aug 17, 2021 11:27am Aug 17, 2021 11:27am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,148 Posts
There is a lot of sell pressure coming from 1.1715/25.. However, thanks to low volume bulls can still act hopeful inside Asian session! But for real success, they need an H4 candle close above 1.1755.. For now, that seems unlikely!
I am calling it a day folks.. Hopefully I continue after London opens.. Cheers and happy trading
I am calling it a day folks.. Hopefully I continue after London opens.. Cheers and happy trading
Focus only on what truly matters!