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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #84,001
  • Aug 14, 2021 6:26pm Aug 14, 2021 6:26pm
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Which bond prices are rising? Can you show me on the chart you’re looking at? {image}
Firstly, $usdjpy plummeted as I'd hoped.
The chart you put up IS BOND YIELDS.
Which fall when bonds rise.
Do you really not know this?
It's a big game.
  • #84,002
  • Aug 14, 2021 6:28pm Aug 14, 2021 6:28pm
Quoting funzodundee
no fancy charts, just common logic. We seen one of the highest demands for 10 year treasury bonds yesterday. This will drive yields down for certain. As yields have a high correlation with usd/jpy we have a great opportunity to short. Short usd/jpy to 108.70
yields dropped on friday and will continue to trend down.
$usdjpy fell in line with yields
It's a big game.
  • #84,003
  • Aug 15, 2021 7:38pm Aug 15, 2021 7:38pm
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  • #84,004
  • Aug 15, 2021 8:04pm Aug 15, 2021 8:04pm
Quoting stevanuss
{image}
long or short ?
  • #84,005
  • Aug 15, 2021 8:04pm Aug 15, 2021 8:04pm
An intresting bit of recent. history.
The last time there was such a huge demand for bonds was in March 2020.
I should say ALMOST, as Thursday's auction was the highest, in history.
Now to clear up any confusion:
Bonds go up and the bond yield goes down.
They have a 100% inverse correlation .
The yield is highly correlated to USD/JPY.
In March 2020 USD/JPY fell to 101.20 as yields nosedived.
The bond market is rarely, if ever wrong and Im not saying USD/JPY will fall that far, but it will fall hard.
Consult your fancy charts and trade accordingly but I see no other way than down.
This also provides opportunities to short financial stocks and buy TLT etf as the bond value will rise(yield will fall)
Remember - Bond value up = bond yields down
It's a big game.
  • #84,006
  • Aug 15, 2021 9:05pm Aug 15, 2021 9:05pm
Quoting izzas
{quote} long or short ?
I was Short, and get in another when bar have Cross
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  • #84,007
  • Aug 15, 2021 10:16pm Aug 15, 2021 10:16pm
Quoting stevanuss
{quote} I was Short, and get in another when bar have Cross {image}
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  • #84,008
  • Edited Aug 16, 2021 3:04am Aug 15, 2021 11:14pm | Edited Aug 16, 2021 3:04am
Quoting funzodundee
An intresting bit of recent. history. The last time there was such a huge demand for bonds was in March 2020. I should say ALMOST, as Thursday's auction was the highest, in history. Now to clear up any confusion: Bonds go up and the bond yield goes down. They have a 100% inverse correlation . The yield is highly correlated to USD/JPY. In March 2020 USD/JPY fell to 101.20 as yields nosedived. The bond market is rarely, if ever wrong and Im not saying USD/JPY will fall that far, but it will fall hard. Consult your fancy charts and trade accordingly...
nothing to do with bonds, but the possibility of operation Afghan Storm 2.0 after president of Afghan fled e country on sunday. impulse move IMO
  • #84,009
  • Aug 16, 2021 8:26am Aug 16, 2021 8:26am
Quoting Bicarus
{quote} nothing to do with bonds, but the possibility of operation Afghan Storm 2.0 after president of Afghan fled e country on sunday. impulse move IMO
What frightens me is that you have subscribers who may be influenced by you.
That is the most ridiculous answer I have ever heard
It's a big game.
  • #84,010
  • Aug 16, 2021 9:04am Aug 16, 2021 9:04am
Quoting funzodundee
An intresting bit of recent. history. The last time there was such a huge demand for bonds was in March 2020. I should say ALMOST, as Thursday's auction was the highest, in history. Now to clear up any confusion: Bonds go up and the bond yield goes down. They have a 100% inverse correlation . The yield is highly correlated to USD/JPY. In March 2020 USD/JPY fell to 101.20 as yields nosedived. The bond market is rarely, if ever wrong and Im not saying USD/JPY will fall that far, but it will fall hard. Consult your fancy charts and trade accordingly...
The easiest way to put it that most people understand is that if people are fleeing to safe haven investments they are purchasing bonds causing yields to go down.

There's "demand" for bonds.

That's what qe is and how the fed keeps rates low. They're purchasing bonds.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,011
  • Aug 16, 2021 9:09am Aug 16, 2021 9:09am
Side note. 109 -108.75 has been a safe buy and really this sell off isn't being driven by fundamentals.

Also most major investors/traders have an eoy target of 113/115.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,012
  • Edited 11:22pm Aug 16, 2021 10:12pm | Edited 11:22pm
Quoting funzodundee
{quote} What frightens me is that you have subscribers who may be influenced by you. That is the most ridiculous answer I have ever heard
whats frightening is you equating bond auctions results, macroeconomics, directly to spot fx movements.
not saying there is no co-relation. but there are many other financial instruments that should be affected by bond auction due to their direct relations before spot FX which is at back of line.

see next post
  • #84,013
  • Edited 11:32pm Aug 16, 2021 10:52pm | Edited 11:32pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} The easiest way to put it that most people understand is that if people are fleeing to safe haven investments they are purchasing bonds causing yields to go down. There's "demand" for bonds. That's what qe is and how the fed keeps rates low. They're purchasing bonds.
1) "people are fleeing to safe haven investments they are purchasing bonds" - not true.

explainer: most bonds are purchased by Asset Managers (AMs) that are sitting on a ton of cash. instead of letting the cash sit idle in the bank they purchase bonds to earn the meager yield till they know what to do with it.

judging off indexes, which are all at all time highs, many AMs are not willing to get into it now(akin to buying the top). hence they are sitting on tons of cash and turn to bonds.



what i'm saying:
the next time indexes sell off. yields will rise because AMs will exit the bond markets and buy the index dips.


what you're saying:
the next time indexes sell off. yields will drop because it is risk off and more people are flocking to bonds as "safe haven".



you and @funodundee, watch this space we'll address this post again when indexes sell off.


2) Are we in risk off mode now? - No

explainer: Indexes are the leading indicator for Risk on/off.
Yet:
a) Indexes are at all time high
b) VIX is normal, no abnormal short coverings
c) Other Risk sensitive instruments are all within Standard Deviation.



3) Why the Yen Strength? - multiple factors in play but definitely not because of Bond auction.

explainer:
1) market spooked because of Khabul's fall within 72 hours of Biden saying it would take the taliban 3 months at least
2) Japan minister announced US$400 BILLION relief package
3) market makers were preparing for end of month settlement and clearing of book
  • #84,014
  • Aug 16, 2021 11:20pm Aug 16, 2021 11:20pm
USD/JPY

https://twitter.com/Market5tudio/sta...56054418317348
not euphoria follower
  • #84,015
  • Aug 16, 2021 11:47pm Aug 16, 2021 11:47pm
Quoting Bicarus
{quote} 1) "people are fleeing to safe haven investments they are purchasing bonds" - not true. explainer: most bonds are purchased by Asset Managers (AMs) that are sitting on a ton of cash. instead of letting the cash sit idle in the bank they purchase bonds to earn the meager yield till they know what to do with it. judging off indexes, which are all at all time highs, many AMs are not willing to get into it now(akin to buying the top). hence they are sitting on tons of cash and turn to bonds. what i'm saying: the next time indexes sell off. yields...
The only thing I said is it's traditionally seen as a safe haven.

Common sense tells you that am's are buying the dips, but that's because there's really nowhere else to put your money with yields as low as they are.

Everyone already knows this. It's not some big secret.

You're looking way to deep into a simple comment.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,016
  • Aug 17, 2021 1:13am Aug 17, 2021 1:13am
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} The only thing I said is it's traditionally seen as a safe haven. Common sense tells you that am's are buying the dips, but that's because there's really nowhere else to put your money with yields as low as they are. Everyone already knows this. It's not some big secret. You're looking way to deep into a simple comment.
my reply is directed at funzo that accredited yen strength to bond auction
  • #84,017
  • Aug 18, 2021 7:50am Aug 18, 2021 7:50am
Another wonderful opportunity to SHORT USD/JPY.
The high correlation between this pair and bond yields which will continue to drop.
Every rally should be shorted for the foreseeable future.
FOMC tonight WILL drop USD/JPY.
It's a big game.
  • #84,018
  • Aug 18, 2021 7:59am Aug 18, 2021 7:59am
Quoting funzodundee
Another wonderful opportunity to SHORT USD/JPY. The high correlation between this pair and bond yields which will continue to drop. Every rally should be shorted for the foreseeable future. FOMC tonight WILL drop USD/JPY.
I'd wait until around 110.55 to short.

To me it looks like you're getting short right in the middle of this upward move.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #84,019
  • Aug 18, 2021 8:27am Aug 18, 2021 8:27am
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  • #84,020
  • Aug 18, 2021 9:27am Aug 18, 2021 9:27am
Quoting Techanalyst
{image}
I see some sniper entries Hats off
You have to have an IQ higher than 90 to interact with this user.
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