AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD
Euro's intra-day jump from 1.1773 to 1.1849 in post-FOMC Wednesday after Fed's dovish hold suggests recent erratic rise from July's 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1773 would yield further gain after consolidation, overbought condition would cap price below res at 1.1894 and yield retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1771/73.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand NBNA business outlook, NBNZ outlook activity, Australia export prices, import prices, U.K. nationwide house price, France producer prices Germany unemployment change, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP, U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, pending house sales and Canada average weekly earnings.
On the downside, a daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1771/73.

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AceTraderFx July 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.79
Yesterday's fall from 110.28 following dovish comments by J. Powell at post-FOMC presser to 109.69 today suggests choppy trading below last week's high at 110.59 would continue and intra-day broad-based usd's weakness would pressure price to 109.59, as broad outlook remains consolidative, reckon Jul's bottom at 109.07 should remain intact and yield rebound.

Only a daily close above 110.00 would bring another rise to 110.28, however, 110.59 should hold from here.

Now that the key FOMC is out of the way, traders will focus on U.S. eco. data, today we have a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for detials and pay attention to Q2 GDP, Q2 PCE, initial jobless claims n continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx July 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1884
Euro's rally in post-FOMC Wed to as high as 1.1892 yesterday confirms recent decline from 1.2266 (May) has made a low in mid-Jul at 1.1753 and as long as 1.1830 (last week's high, now sup) holds, further gain is envisaged after consolidation, however, near term loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.1940/44 today.

Only a daily close below 1.1830 indicates temporary top is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1800/05.

On the data front, euro aea countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to CPI and GDP data.

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AceTraderFx July 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.53
The greenback's selloff following the Federal Reserve's dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday's release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July's bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend MT decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only abv 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.

Data to be released on Friday:
Japan unemployment rate, industrial output, retail sales, construction orders, housing starts, consumer confidence, Australia PPI, France PPI.
Germany GDP, import prices, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicators, France CPI, Italy unemployment rate, GDP, CPI, EU HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, Canada GDP, producer prices and budget balance.

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AceTraderFx Aug 02:Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1868
Euro's decline from 1.1909 Fri's 1-month high of to 1.1852 New York after upbeat U.S. data suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for retracement of early rise from 1.1753, reckon 1.1773 sup would hold and yield rebound.

Only above 1.1909 risks one more rise but loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1940/44 and yield another decline.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Germany's n EU's Markit PMI, a weaker-than-expected number will weigh on the euro.

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AceTraderFx Aug 02: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.65
The greenback's selloff following the Federal Reserve's dovish hold on Wednesday and yesterday's release of soft U.S. GDP data to 109.37 in Australia today suggests correction from July's bottom at 109.07 has ended at 110.59 last Friday and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend Medium Term decline to 108.70/80 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger gain to 110.59 again.

Data to be released later:
Australia AIG manufacturing PMI, manufacturing PMI, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, China caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada market holiday, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1878
Yesterday's retreat from 1.1896 suggests further sideways swings below Friday's 1-month peak at 1.1909 would continue with downside bias, below 1.1852 (reaction low Friday) confirms recent upmove from 1.1753 (July low) has made a temporary top and brings stronger retracement, reckon 1.1800/05 would remain intact.

Only above 1.1909 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.1940/44 and yield decline later.

Eco. calendar is pretty light with EU's PPI being the only data due out at 09:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Aug 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.22
The greenback's selloff yesterday to 109.19 on broad-based risk-averse buying in jpy and intra-day break below there suggests a re-test of July's bottom at 109.07 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from July's peak at 111.65 towards 108.70/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.82 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.10/15 but 110.28 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Australia building permits, RBA rate decision.
Swiss consumer confidence, EU producer prices.
U.S. redbook, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport, Canada Markit manufacturing PMI and New Zealand GDT price index.

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AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1866
Although euro's daily choppy sideways swings following early retreat from Friday's 1-month high of 1.1909 to 1.1852 would continue, downside bias remains and below 1.1852 would bring stronger retracement of early upmove from July's 1.1753 bottom to 1.1800/10 later this week.

Only above 1.1909 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum would cap price below 1.1944 and yield decline.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries (pls refer to EI page for detials), pay attention to German n EU's Markit services PMI, a lower-than-expected reading would weigh on euro.

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AceTraderFx Aug 04: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.19
The greenback's selloff yesterday to 109.19 on broad-based risk-averse buying in jpy and intra-day break below there suggests a re-test of July's bottom at 109.07 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from July's peak at 111.65 towards 108.70/80 after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 108.57 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.82 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.10/15 but 110.28 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, retail sales, New Zealand labour cost index, employment change, unemployment rate, Japan services PMI, China caixin services PMI.
France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, retail sales, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, U.K. Markit services PMI.U.S. MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI and Canada building permits.

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AceTraderFx Aug 05:Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1836
As euro's intra-day 'wild' swings in New York session had ended with price falling sharply from 1.1899 to 1.1834 on hawkish comments by Fed's Vice Chair Clarida, suggesting early correction from July's 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 would add credence to this view, 1.1771/73 later.

Only a move above 1.1899 risks one more rise, however, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below 1.1944 ahead of Fri's key U.S. jobs report.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia trade balance, imports, exports.
Germany industrial orders, France industrial output, U.K. Markit construction PMI, BoE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC Vote Cut.
U.S. international trade balance, goods trade balance, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Canada trade balance, exports and imports.

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AceTraderFx Aug 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.61
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details and pay attention to the usual weekly jobless claims and continued jobless claims at 12:30GMT. Fed Governor Waller (voter) will speak on "Central Bank Digital Currency" before an virtual event at 14:00GMT.

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AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1826
Despite moving in relatively narrow range on Thursday, euro's weakness to 1.1829 (Europe), then intra-day break there suggests early correction from July's 1.1753 bottom has possibly ended last week at 1.1909 (Friday), a daily close below 1.1800 (upbeat U.S. jobs report perhaps) would add credence to this view and bring re-test of 1.1753.

Only above this week's 1.1899 high (Wednesday) shifts risks to upside for re-test of 1.1909, break would extend said corrective upmove to 1.1940/44.

On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of economic data in European morning, please refer to our EI page for details.

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AceTraderFx Aug 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.76
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 109.67 on hawkish comments from Federal Reserve's Clarida, then 109.75 today suggests recent decline has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/20, however, overbought condition would keep price below 110.50/60.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia AIG services index, Japan all household spending coincident index, leading indicator, China export, import, trade balance.
Germany industrial output, U.K. Halifax house prices, France current account, Non-Farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy industrial output.
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment change, and Ivey PMI.

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AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1753
Euro's selloff on Fri to 1.1754 after upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) would be seen after consolidation, oversold condition would prevent steep fall and reckon 1.1655/65 should remain intact.

Only above 1.1800 signals temporary low is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.1829.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with exports, imports, trade balance n current account, then EU's Sentix investor sentiment.

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AceTraderFx Aug 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.20
Despite the greenback's selloff yesterday to a 2-month trough at 108.73 at New York open on the release of poor U.S. ADP data, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 108.88 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released today:
China PPI, CPI, Swiss unemployment rate.
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
U.S. JOLTS job openings on Monday.

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AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1737
Yesterday's resumption of recent decline to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1736 (New York) suggests re-test of 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) is in the cards, however, break there needed to retain bearishness for further weakness towards next daily objective at 1.1603 later this week.

On above Monday's 1.1768 high signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.1808/18.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia NAC business conditions, NAC business confidence.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Aug 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.46
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand retail sales, U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan current account, trade balance, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia NAC business conditions, NAC business confidence.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectations.
Canada leading index, U.S. labor costs, productivity and redbook retail sales.

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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Aug 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1718
Euro's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1710 (New York) suggests price would briefly penetrate 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March), however, loss of downward momentum is expected to keep price above 1.1650/55 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1742 signals temporary low is in place and yields stronger retracement to 1.1768 but 1.1808 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machine tool orders, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI and Federal Budget.

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AceTraderFx Aug 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Aug 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.76
Despite the greenback's selloff to a 2-month trough at 108.73 last Wednesday, subsequent rally to 110.35 last Friday on upbeat U.S. jobs report and intra-day break above there suggests a temporary low has been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.60/65 before prospect of retreat later.

On the downside, only below 109.41 would indicate aforesaid recovery has ended instead and risk weakness to 109.07, then bring re-test of said support, break would extend to 108.50/60.

On the data front, this week's market focus is today's U.S. inflation data, CPI and core CPI (see our EI page for details), a higher-than-expected reading will send U.S. yields and the greenback higher.
On Fedspeak, we have Atlanta President Bostic (voter) and Kansas City Fed President George (non-voter) speaking at 16:00GMT n 18:00GMT respectively.

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