USD/CAD

hey USDCAD traders, I was wondering whether you watch crude oil price (in USD) as you trade USDCAD.
Are they really inversely correlated or is this assertion that I've just come across unreliable and thus not actionable?

hi, sometimes I saw oil price but the most frequent I watch is dxy as I trade also xauusd, and other usd pairs, if both goes up then I think no effect, but now seems not help much watch crude oil price, I long because of pure technical only fib D1, H4 and demand zones

2530 sell

SMART MONEY are SELLING CAD..... USDCAD will go UP, SENTIMENT is CHANGED

no wonder uptrend is still continue, bro btw could you check gbp please? I saw on last Sunday smart money hv changed much from long to short and total short is bigger than long since 2 weeks ago, is it correct way to read it? I just tried to check cot since few weeks ago

Here: https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...1#post13650761

which way it will break?

still in range but achieved double top target.

Looks like USDCAD is caught between a rock (EURUSD) and a hard place (WTICOUSD), thus unable to make a decisive move yet.
On the higher timeframes I see a failed parabolic rise which should result in a deeper retracement to approx where the parabola started.
Also a megaphone pattern is visible on 2H right after 13:00 EDT.
So we should expect a very big move when it breaks away from the megaphone.
The direction is unclear but I'd go with down at the moment.

#USDCAD / H4

No Inside Days on any pair today, but this one 4 days ago was the BOMB

Well today's pullback was sizable from the large gain on Friday with price doing a 68% re-tracement.

I suspect that price will consolidate here at 1.2650ish area during the Asian session. I am expecting UC to then continue upward to the 1.30 area.
Edit
Currently long at 1.2660 with SL 1.2640 and TP of 1.30

#USDCAD / H4

This would be a perfect setup to trap the unaware, trade a few pips under the low, and then skyrocket to highs on Jackson Hole

Great Spot !!!

So far so good, nothing has changed leading up to Jackson Hole and the "taper announcement"

Price at this time is 1.2680 and looking to continue upward.

There are a number of factors that influence USD/CAD, but the three easiest ones to follow are crude oil, spread between U.S. and Canada 2-year bond yields and the S&P 500. Correlations change, especially depending on the time frame you are analyzing, but these three factors will give you an idea of what is influencing USD/CAD. You can also look at industrial metal prices, lumber and a number of other commodities.

Speaking of correlations with USD/CAD, the correlation with oil is generally negative: oil goes up, USD/CAD goes down. Same with the S&P 500. For the yield spread it is usually positive: US yield rises versus Canadian yield and USD/CAD goes up.

Terms of trade is another driver of USD/CAD, but as the data is months out of date, it isn't overly useful from a real-time trading perspective unless you are good at forecasting that figure, whether you have access to large amounts of trade you can parse (i.e., like banks may have) or ar just an amazing economic forecaster.

The above four factors describe the bulk of movements in USD/CAD over time, and most models that banks use (i.e., fair value models) incorporate these and other factors as inputs into their models.

That being said, fair value models are just that, models. They model the behavior of an asset based on inputs and don't necessarily reflect reality as there are many competing pressures on price in the real world. For example, my year-to-date fair value model of USD/CAD suggest 1.1615 is 'fair value' for USD/CAD based on the correlations with oil, S&P 500 and yield spreads. However, current price is 1.2617, so you can see the danger of being overly reliant on models and their assumptions. Correlations break down in the medium-term, economic winds change, etc. At best, they are useful as ancillary tools to evaluate a current price versus a model and then using your judgement for your own trading decisions.

Also, the are coincident indicators meaning that they aren't predictive of future price action, but only describe how the model views the price in its own world in real-time, but not in the future.

USDCAD D1

#USDCAD / H4