AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx July 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.49
Dollar's rally from last Thur's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia today on the back of yesterday's release of robust U.S. inflation data suggests first leg of correction from Jul's 15-month peak at 111.65 has ended and gain to 110.90/95 would be seen after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should cap price below res at 111.18.

Only a daily close below 109.86 signals recovery is over and extends said decline towards next daily chart objective at 109.20.

After yesterday's market-moving U.S. CPI data, we have MBA mortgage applications and PPI, then later Fed's beige book. Traders are anxiously awaiting J.Powels semi-annual testimony at 16:00GMT (look out for release of his prepared text in New York morning) where he is expected to be grilled by U.S. lawmakers on his repeated comments on recent sharp rise in U.S. inflation is 'transitory'.
If he sounds anything less than dovish, then U.S. yields will jump n the greenback will do too ! Last and possibly the least, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak at 17:30GMT.

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AceTraderFx July 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1832
Despite yesterday's initial re-test of Tue's 3-month trough at 1.1773, subsequent rebound on intra-day falling U.S. yields and then gain to 1.1838 in New York following J. Powell's dovish testimony suggests recent decline has made a temporary low, as long as 1.1800 holds, stronger retracement is envisaged, reckon res at 1.1894 would cap upside.

A daily close below 1.1800 signals correction is over and price may yield weakness towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia consumer inflation, employment change, unemployment change, China house prices, industrial output, retail sales, GDP, Japan tertiary industrial activity.
Germany wholesale price index, U.K. Claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy CPI.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, NAHB market index and Canada ADP employment change.

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AceTraderFx July 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.80
Despite dollar's rally from last Thur's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 yesterday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony and intra-day break below there suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110.21 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.40, then 110.64.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to another round of J. Powell's comments when he testifies at 13:30GMT on Capital Hill on the second day of his 2-day semi-annual testimony before the Congress. We also have Chicago Fed President Evans speaking at 15:00GMT

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AceTraderFx July 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1812
Euro's decline on Thursday from 1.1850 to 1.1793 in New York due to safe-haven usd and yen buying strongly suggests correction from Tuesday's 3-month low at 1.1773 has ended and recent erratic fall would resume after initial consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) and bring minor correction.

On the upside, only above 1.1850 'prolongs' volatile trading above 1.1773 and risks stronger retracement, reckon res at 1.1994 should cap upside and yield retreat early next week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details. Next week's major focus is Thursay's ECB monetary policy meeting and forward guidance which may pave the way for next euro's major move.

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AceTraderFx July 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.14
Despite dollar's rally from last Thur's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 in Asia yesterday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony, then 109.72 yesterday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, CPI, Japan interest rate decision, Italy trade balance, global trade balance, EU trade balance, HICP, Canada housing starts, wholesale trade, U.S. retail sales, business inventories and University of Michigan sentiment.

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AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1810
Euro's weakness to 1.1793 Fri suggests correction from Tue's 3-month low at 1.1773 has ended at 1.1850 and despite recovery on cross-buying of euro vs sterling, outlook remains mildly bearish for re-test of said temporary low after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.

Only a daily close above 1.1850 'prolongs' choppy consolidation and risks stronger retracement to 1.1875/80 later.

The only eco. data due out today is EU's construction output. The Bundesbank will repease its monthly report sometime in European morning.

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AceTraderFx July 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.89
Despite dollar's rally from last July's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony, then 109.72 Thursday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.

Data to be released today:
U.K. Rightmove house price, EU construction output.
U.S. NAHB housing market index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1796
Despite Monday's resumption of recent decline to a fresh 3-month trough of 1.1765 at New York open, intra-day brief jump to 1.1824 on cross-buying vs sterling suggests temporary low is made and range trading is in store.

As long as 1.1775/80 holds, marginal gain is likely but reckon res at 1.1850 would cap upside. Below 1.1765 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum should keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan nationwid CPI.
Germany producer prices, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, EU current account.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, rebook and New Zealand GDT price index.

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AceTraderFx July 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.69
Despite dollar's rally from last July's 3-week trough at 109.54 to 110.69 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 109.94 Wednesday on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish testimony, then 109.72 Thursday suggests said correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said support, break would extend recent decline to 109.30 before prospect of a rebound.

On the upside, only above 110421 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.69.

U.S. will later release buidling permits, housing starts n then redbook sales later today. Traders will take cue from movement in U.S. stocks n U.S. yields.

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AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1780
Despite yesterday's marginal weakness to a fresh 3-month trough of 1.1756 in New York, subsequent rebound on intra-day rally in euro cross vs yen and chf due to risk sentiment on rise in U.S. yields and global stocks suggest range trading with initial upside bias would be seen but res at 1.1850 should cap upside.

Below 1.1756 would extend marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price well above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 ahead of Thursday's key ECB monetary policy announcement.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Australia Westpac leading index, retail sales, U.K. PSNB, PSNCR, Italy industrial sales, U.S. Mortgage application and new housing price index.

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AceTraderFx July 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.17
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 109.95 yesterday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.34, however, resistance at 110.69 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

U.S. eco. calendar is pretty light with second-tier MBA mortgage applications and new housing price index being the only data due out in New York morning. Therefore, traders will continue to take cue from intra-day moves in U.S. yields n U.S. stock futures until NY open.

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AceTraderFx July 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1790
Although euro's rebound on Wednesday after marginal weakness to a fresh 3-1/2 month low at 1.1753 would bring sideways swings ahead of key ECB monetary policy meeting announcement, reckon 1.1850 res would cap upside and yield another fall.

On the downside, below 1.1753 (ECB's dovish hold perhaps) would pressure price towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March).

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan market holiday, France business climate.
U.K. CBI trends orders, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales, leading index change, KC manufacturing index and EU consumer confidence.

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AceTraderFx July 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.28
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 on Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 109.95 yesterday and intra-day break above there suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.34, however, resistance at 110.69 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to release of weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims.

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AceTraderFx July 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1777
As euro's intraday wild swings after ECB's dovish hold has ended with price falling from 1.1830 to 1.1758, re-test of Wednesday's 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 would be seen, however, loss of downward momentum may keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) today and risk has increased for a correction to occur next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1830 would bring stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.1850.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Germany's n EU's mfg n services PMIs, weaker-than-expected readings would trigger another round of euro bashing.

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AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1770
Euro's selloff from 1.1830 (Thursday) to 1.1755 on Friday suggests re-test of Wednesday's fresh 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 would be seen, break there would extend recent erratic decline towards 2021 bottom at 1.1705 (March) but 'loss of downward momentum' may keep price above there.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1804 'prolongs' choppy sideways trading and may risk another rise towards 1.1830.

Market's attention is release of Germany's key Ifo data, keep an eye out on July's business climate n current expectations.

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AceTraderFx July 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.16
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 last Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.58 on Friday suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

Data to be released later :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan Jibun bank manufacturing PMI.
Germany import prices, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. building permits, new home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

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AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0808
Although euro's fall from 1.1830 (Thursday) to 1.1755 on Friday suggests correction from July's 3-1/2 month trough at 1.1753 has ended, Monday's stronger-than-expected rebound due to broad-based usd's weakness would bring further choppy swings ahead of Wed's Fed's monetary policy decision.

As long as 1.1830 holds, downside bias remains for re-test of 1.1753, however, loss of downward momentum would keep price above 2021 bottom at 1.1705.
Only a daily close above 1.1830 risks stronger retracement to 1.1880/90 before prospect of decline later

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Italy trade balance.
U.S. durables goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence and Richmond Fed manufacturing.

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AceTraderFx July 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.10
Despite dollar's selloff to a 7-week trough at 109.07 last Monday due to risk-averse buying in jpy, subsequent strong rebound to 110.58 on Friday suggests decline from July's peak at 111.65 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.97/00, however, resistance at 111.18 would remain intact and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 109.54 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk stronger weakness to 109.34 later this week.

The increase was also driven by a 1.3% rise in transportation fees as international freight prices continued to increase, highlighting the cost pressure companies are facing as economies across the globe re-open

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AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 July 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1817
Although yesterday's brief break of last week's 1.1830 high to 1.1841 in New York due to broad-based usd's weakness suggests recent decline has made a temporary bottom at 1.1753 last week, subsequent retreat would bring consolidation ahead of key FOMC's announcement, below 1.1171 signals correction over and yields re-test of 1.1753, then later towards 2021 trough at 1.1705.

A daily close above 1.1841 (Fed's dovish hold perhaps) would risk stronger gain to 1.1880/90 later.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia CPI, Japan coincident index, leading indicator,
U.K. BRC shop price index, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application good trade balance, wholesale inventories, Fed interest rate decision and Canada CPI.

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AceTraderFx July 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

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DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 July 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.95
Although dlr's decline from 110.59 (Fri) to 109.59 in tandem with U.S. yields suggests early cross-inspired rise from Jul's 109.07 bottom has made a temporary top, intra-day rebound in Europe would bring consolidation ahead of key FOMC's announcement.

A daily close above 110.13 signals pullback is over, then outlook would turn bullish for re-test of 110.59. Below 109.59 would shift risk to downside for weakness towards 109.07 later.

Ahead of FOMC announcement at 18:00GMT and post-FOMC press conference at 18:30GMT, we have some second-tier data due out, please refer to our EI page for details.

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