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  • #1,197,681
  • Jul 20, 2021 8:50am Jul 20, 2021 8:50am
Quoting Techanalyst
How Forex Market Works: - Short term price action is generally random. Medium/long term price action is less random, and more predictable. - Banks Focus: Value(Demand & Supply), liquidity & slippage(Accumulation/Distribution). - Banks & Market Makers use our lack of knowledge, discipline, impatience & expectations against us. - Value(demand/supply) will eventually be revealed over the medium to long term. {image}
Nice one.
Even the most experienced still gets beaten at times
The fragrance remains in the hands of those that gves the rose
  • #1,197,682
  • Jul 20, 2021 9:47am Jul 20, 2021 9:47am
Quoting tonyb123
High probability of double bottom before a 25-50% retrace. Still trailing trades from 1.1760.{image}{image}
Trail activated @ 1.1760
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,683
  • Jul 20, 2021 9:55am Jul 20, 2021 9:55am
The U.S. dollar is a rampant rabbit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: US Dollar Basket_20210720_15.55.png Size: 242 KB
  • #1,197,684
  • Edited 10:13am Jul 20, 2021 10:03am | Edited 10:13am
Quoting Techanalyst
How Forex Market Works: - Short term price action is generally random. Medium/long term price action is less random, and more predictable. - Banks Focus: Value(Demand & Supply), liquidity & slippage(Accumulation/Distribution). - Banks & Market Makers use our lack of knowledge, discipline, impatience & expectations against us. - Value(demand/supply) will eventually be revealed over the medium to long term. {image}
They use Algo's that trade. = mathematical calculation. It is very precise, to the micro pip level precise, nothing random about it. Order book heavy on longs, they sell. Order book heavy on shorts, they buy. That simple. But yes, the MM use traders lack of knowledge against them; retail does not have the luxury of seeing both sides of the orders at all times like they do.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,685
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:19am Jul 20, 2021 10:19am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} They use Algo's that trade. = mathematical calculation. It is very precise, to the micro pip level precise, nothing random about it. Order book heavy on longs, they sell. Order book heavy on shorts, they buy. That simple. But yes, the MM use traders lack of knowledge against them; retail does not have the luxury of seeing both sides of the orders at all times like they do.

"But yes, the MM use traders lack of knowledge against them" i would say more like MM and pro's leaverage the lack of emotional control of retail traders. they always say don't trade with your emotions but the fact is you can't. instead trade against your emtions.

for example

confidence in a trade means you should be doing the opposite of what you feel. if you feel like its a long then you should be thinking short.

this skill takes considerable time to develop but once you have it then you'll start to see the benefits and won't trade without it.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,197,686
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:31am Jul 20, 2021 10:31am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} "But yes, the MM use traders lack of knowledge against them" i would say more like MM and pro's leaverage the lack of emotional control of retail traders. they always say don't trade with your emotions but the fact is you can't. instead trade against your emtions. for example confidence in a trade means you should be doing the opposite of what you feel. if you feel like its a long then you should be thinking short. this skill takes considerable time to develop but once you have it then you'll start to see the benefits and won't trade without...
i would say more like MM and pro's leaverage the lack of emotional control of retail traders. they always say don't trade with your emotions but the fact is you can't.

Yes, you can trade without emotion. Make your system (not strategy) as mechanical as possible. But 1st develop a complete system.

IE: 1st entry, 2nd entry and 3rd entry, if the market moves beyond any of them. Or comes short of them.
1st take profit, 2nd take profit and 3rd take profit, if the market moves beyond any of them. Or comes short of them.
1st sl, 2nd sl, and 3rd sl, if the market moves beyond any of them. Or comes short of them.

Have a mechanical contingency for when things go as planned and when things don't.

But stick to it and never change it.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,687
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:33am Jul 20, 2021 10:33am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} "But yes, the MM use traders lack of knowledge against them" i would say more like MM and pro's leaverage the lack of emotional control of retail traders. they always say don't trade with your emotions but the fact is you can't. instead trade against your emtions. for example confidence in a trade means you should be doing the opposite of what you feel. if you feel like its a long then you should be thinking short. this skill takes considerable time to develop but once you have it then you'll start to see the benefits and won't trade without...
It absolutely does not make sense when you say, "if you think long, go short and opposite", what kind of statement is that? You do not think, if market is going up, down, sideways. You analyze based on fundamentals micro and macro, collecting information what is happening with the economy in the world. Like interest rates, GDP and so on. When you have good numbers for example on USD, than the next currency you want to look for is the one that is much weaker. For example USD is doing better then EUR, so EURUSD bearish. That sums it up to about 80% or more on fundamentals. The rest on charts is just analysing supply/demand zones. It is where you look for better entries, either buy or sell, and where to either put your stop loss or if not, knowing where and when to exit, if the trade goes against you, and also knowing when to take the profit. That's it. That is the main purpose of the charts. All the other indicators, drawing lines and so on, are just there to give you a bit of insight, but overall, you don't really need them, because they are not much of a use. Charts get the data first, and based off the charts and knowing supply/demand, on higher time frames, it will guide you where the market is going. Up, down, sideways. The rest is to be patient, and money is made by sitting not trading.
  • #1,197,688
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:34am Jul 20, 2021 10:34am
Just an example for the new traders of what tonyb123 is saying for orderbook.
The traders at the R (resistance levels) are in serious drawdown and the traders that sold are losing, but less - S (support).
Just open a chart and see where these prices are located and avoid buying/selling at the edges.

Attached Image


https://fxssi.com/tools/dom-snapshot...e=noncumuldiff
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #1,197,689
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:35am Jul 20, 2021 10:35am
Quoting Techanalyst
{quote} It absolutely does not make sense when you say, "if you think long, go short and opposite", what kind of statement is that? You do not think, if market is going up, down, sideways. You analyze based on fundamentals micro and macro, collecting information what is happening with the economy in the world. Like interest rates, GDP and so on. When you have good numbers for example on USD, than the next currency you want to look for is the one that is much weaker. For example USD is doing better then EUR, so EURUSD bearish. That sums it up to...

i refer to short term trading/ day trading where head fakes are the norm.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,197,690
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:37am Jul 20, 2021 10:37am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} i would say more like MM and pro's leaverage the lack of emotional control of retail traders. they always say don't trade with your emotions but the fact is you can't. Yes, you can trade without emotion. Make your system (not strategy) as mechanical as possible. But 1st develop a complete system. IE: 1st entry, 2nd entry and 3rd entry, if the market moves beyond any of them. Or comes short of them. 1st take profit, 2nd take profit and 3rd take profit, if the market moves beyond any of them. Or comes short of them. 1st sl, 2nd sl, and 3rd...
no i think its still an emotional experience and pretending you do without emotion is false.

what happens in your system when it fails three or four times in a row? are you not emotional when you trade next?
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,197,691
  • Jul 20, 2021 10:56am Jul 20, 2021 10:56am
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} no i think its still an emotional experience and pretending you do without emotion is false. what happens in your system when it fails three or four times in a row? are you not emotional when you trade next?
Careful..., if you have not put into practice what I suggested then you are talking without experience. I gave you and everyone the nuts and bolts of my trading system.

If the market does not do what I expect it to do, I have a contingency as I stated. You can look at the pictures I posted and you will see that I have my charts marked with those contingency levels pre plotted. Go have a look. I do not waste my time by biting my nails.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,692
  • Jul 20, 2021 11:32am Jul 20, 2021 11:32am
I would like to add to this conversation but to no one in particular. If you are sweating balls over your trade, you are probably trading with $$$ you cannot afford to lose or you are trying to get rich overnight. Both of these things will compromise you and your emotions and turn your (OK) system into a loser.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,693
  • Jul 20, 2021 11:53am Jul 20, 2021 11:53am
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Careful..., if you have not put into practice what I suggested then you are talking without experience. I gave you and everyone the nuts and bolts of my trading system. If the market does not do what I expect it to do, I have a contingency as I stated. You can look at the pictures I posted and you will see that I have my charts marked with those contingency levels pre plotted. Go have a look. I do not waste my time by biting my nails.
i'm talking generally not specially about you. all well and good what you say but my point is the same. it a myth that one can trade without emotion.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,197,694
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:02pm Jul 20, 2021 12:02pm
Quoting OhComeOn
Riding it down for a little bit using 30M chart, will TP at S61 or S78. Will be entering longs 1.1700ish +/- area assuming things line up right. {image}
Closed position a little earlier for 21 pips. Normally I would let run, but made a LL and have bullish divergence on 4H. Going to watch the London and see what I want to do tomorrow. Stay Green
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,197,695
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:25pm Jul 20, 2021 12:25pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} i'm talking generally not specially about you. all well and good what you say but my point is the same. it a myth that one can trade without emotion.
Take your system add those rules to it and get back to me with how you "feel" about your trades.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,696
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:37pm Jul 20, 2021 12:37pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Take your system add those rules to it and get back to me with how you "feel" about your trades.
i have a working system but thanks.
In tea leaves we trust!
  • #1,197,697
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:55pm Jul 20, 2021 12:55pm
Quoting tonyb123
{quote} Take your system add those rules to it and get back to me with how you "feel" about your trades.
Just to add my 2 cents, my system says it is almost time to have a beer and that makes me "feel" happy. After drinking a few outside, I start "sweating balls" (terminology as stated in your post above). After several beers and ball sweating, I tend to become dehydrated which therefore causes me to become emotional because then I have to go drink water which defeats the purpose of acquiring and consuming the beer. All this will occur overnight! Now I am angry, this system sucks. I am going to stop the water and just drink beer in the air conditioning. Wow that was enlightening, thanks Tonyb!
"What the wise do in the beginning, fools do in the end."-Warren Buffet
  • #1,197,698
  • Jul 20, 2021 12:59pm Jul 20, 2021 12:59pm
Quoting Mcbeaners
{quote} i have a working system but thanks.
Ok, so your system is purely mechanical? No arbitrary rules? Everything is precise to the pip? So you have an EA that can execute it? No? Well I do.
Please don't assume because you can't or you have too many arbitrary rules in your system, everyone else can't or it's a myth. It doesn't make it true.
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,699
  • Jul 20, 2021 1:01pm Jul 20, 2021 1:01pm
Quoting OhComeOn
{quote} Just to add my 2 cents, my system says it is almost time to have a beer and that makes me "feel" happy. After drinking a few outside, I start "sweating balls" (terminology as stated in your post above). After several beers and ball sweating, I tend to become dehydrated which therefore causes me to become emotional because then I have to go drink water which defeats the purpose of acquiring and consuming the beer. All this will occur overnight! Now I am angry, this system sucks. I am going to stop the water and just drink beer in the air...
Cheers!
MY GRID. Markets are NOT random.
  • #1,197,700
  • Jul 20, 2021 1:04pm Jul 20, 2021 1:04pm
For long term traders, EU started downtrend movement this month. Any retracement movements are opportunities to sell higher. Still has to clear 1.1700 then 1.1630 to continue to its targets 1.10-1.11
My technical analysis leading trades depend on Daily/Weekly/Monthly Chart
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