XJO S&P200 AUS

DOWN TO 6520

RUT and SPX = BEARISH
Waiting for confirmations

XJO = SIDEWAYS
Need to go below 6521 to establish the bearish trend

XJO still sideways, bearish.
DJIA reached HH then sideways
med term trading, won't touch.

Primary trend is strong up.

ATM, it is sideway-ing before June 10th Inflation of US.
It will be hard to be pulled back because of the strong sentiment.

Will pick up bargains after that when it is still low.

China CPI released today, had no effect, as expected.

Post London open, it keeps (still) testing 72 74.
If it broke through, it might reach to 72 30.

Wednesday - Friday, each day around 10.15- 10.30PM Sydney's time, there will be Job related announcements.
Monday @ Japan will fall.
Likely for movements, US will dip prior and during (Wed-Fri) announcement,
and then spike up - Friday US and Monday AU and after.
Will buy up XJO, RUT, SPX/IXIC only after trend is established ie TUESDAY AU quick in/out - will be patient.
I make money.

Based on sentiment, at 4pm pre UK< US will be bullish moderately, then dip before and during Wed-Friday.
I will still enter post US tonight ie AU am tomorrow.

Forgot today is only 29th.
Luckily it reverses early.

Depression is deadly for traders.

Japan exiting, temporary retracement - 10 pips.

I always wonder about who on earth short on fundamentally long trend and prevailing trend is also long????

US and AU

US indices (RUT, SPX, IXIC), UK (FTSE), XJO went down last (US) Friday.
The trigger mentioned to be the 10Y bond yield weakening despite seemingly positive economic data - eg job related numbers.

CPI and PPI (US, AU, and UK) have been increasing as a consequent of QE and have been said uniformly as temporary

Why temporary? When US Fed starts tapering - incl. reducing bond purchases,
inflation will then disappear

At the moment, tapering is seen as foreseeable (Fed and RBA have mentioned as temporary - indicting they can act on it soon),

So when?
As at their most recent policy minutes/statements, bond purchases US and AU are still not said to be decreasing yet.

Looking deeper into RBA and US Fed Reserve policy minutes:
RBA statement July:
- bond yield target 10Y to be maintained at .10%
- purchasing is maintained until at least mid November (WILL BE DECIDED IN THE NOV MEETING)
- has indicated: tapering will start before cash rate hike
thus, high inflation is temporary
- note: xjo wise, > end of this year or now (depending on sentiment) change of trend is imminent
- cash rate at .10%
- inflation to return to 2-3% target (current = 1.1%)
they expect this to be in 2024 to be in 2-3%
note: not mentioned after tapering or not
note 2: previously in june, 2024 is expected cash rate hike
note 3: put 2 together, 2-3% in 2024 is assumably after tapering
- they are looking at, job wise:
— unemployment and employment rates
— wage growth
note: they expect to taper when wage growth is above 3%

conclusion for XJO, trading wise:
- imminent change (november) to flatten then downwards
- to look at:
— wage growth , embedded in the breakdown of job numbers
so job announcements from now to november will be key
— november announcement will be key
— now to november, to be safe, stay out of xjo because trend is being decided

US fed reserve FOMC minutes July:
- Real GDP is good
and is projected to increase substantially
- Labour market in April and May are good
and unemployment number is predicted to decline
- CPI through April is high but transitionary
- NFP increased at a slower paced in April - May in comparison to Feb - March
- PCE and CPI> will be high till the end of the year and start to ease in 2022
- Asset purchases can be stopped earlier than expected (some mentioned)

conclusion fo US indices (SPX, IXIC and RUT):
growth will continue
sentiment could be temporary - bond yields should adjust?
the one to watch for is the mere mention of tapering
> focus on SPX and IXIC

and taking a heed of bond yields,
If there is no growth spur, then deflation will start
This is here because 10y yields is decreasing indicating weak economy growth
economic growth indicated as weakening in longer term by decreasing 10Y yields,

resources: US fed rates and RBA minutes and statement

NOW - NOVEMBER - XJO

1. stay out
2. keep a look out on:
   1. mid month employment number esp. wage growth
   2. READ statements and minutes for tapering, wage growth comments > to gauge market direction

NOVEMBER - XJO

1. LOOK FOR DECISION ON Bond Purchasing and others e.g. cash rate hike plans, market direction.

NOW - SEPTEMBER = CPI, PPI AND MOST IMPORTANTLY CPE - US

1. Based on US Fed Reserve minutes, cannot see any fundamentally wrong item to pull indices down
2. Bond Yields, I think reflect expectations that can still be corrected, will be monitored daily
3. Will listen to economists - CW, etc - to gauge sentiments

NOTE TO SELF

1. MARKET WILL ALWAYS DO WHATEVER IT WANTS TO DO, (READ: bond yields in July 21 pullback 300 points, another drama earlier 21 another similar pullback)
2. SO STICK TO MY WELL DEVELOPED THOROUGHLY RESEARCHED STRATEGY BECAUSE
   1. It's been developed to be fail safe
   2. it is slow ie missed out on a lot of profit because it is 90% fail safe

   
   

3. ABIDE SL
4. WAIT AND HAWK THE CHARTS BEFORE ENTERING

DXY strengthening
AUDUSD weakening. Out of USDCAD - oil chaotic.

5pm Sydney's time, wait for 1 HR MACD Histogram reversal.
DO SO BEFORE 11.30 RBA minutes Tuesday 20 July
0.73630-0.73550 = 80.
0.73550 - 0.73519 = 30.
0.73519 - 0.73480 = 40.
0.73480 - 0.73435 = 45.
0.73435 - 0.73390 = 45.

note: right on point @ 5.13pm - see bottom pic, 1 window:

note: at 5.45pm - see top pic, 4 TFs 1 screen:
momentum is weak. won't be taking any chances.

won't trade tonight.
a sea of red, VIX is up significantly - 16.6 to 18.4, 10Y yield declined - -0.04 %,
AUDUSD lacks momentum.

It seems too easy at times, I do find ASX numbers to be too big though..!!
Drawdowns can be huge....GL

again! which idiots go short in long fundamental & temporary!!!

DAX.

Have 2 strategies - MINE & dip>HH (stimulus are in - share price jacked up).
Bond purchases have been tapered by RBA but it is gradual. Cash Rate will be low worldwide - money will flood share market.
There will always be something I miss - so, in/out at closest s/r!

Both trades = vix temporarily spiked up.
Both during UK time circa Japan retreat time.
Note to self - s/r is crucial espcially around wicks > MARK IT CLEARLY

Best trade ever.
DAX.
100 pips in 10 minutes.

I create a routine, a lifestyle, that daily allows me to trade unemotionally, sharply analytical to gauge market movements (in/out with perfection this includes not trading when there isn't any signal, be ready and fully prepared to pull the trigger with precision (armed with all notes) and exit with precision and take profit perfectly), record keeping for review and tax, and better future trades and profits.
> up early, exercise, good food,
weekly/fortnightly/monthly I diligently read/digest statements & minutes from ECB, RBA, US Fed Reserves, etc.

I am at peace with myself and surroundings, trading is an activity I enjoy and luckily it makes money.
I have good surroundings who + influence me.

Before I pull the trigger, I am calm, do all the necessary checklist, wait until 100% perfection and then perfect TP is completed.