DXY still uptrend,
consequently, A/U and X/U still in downtrend.
1) Wait for DXY 4h and 1h:
4h candle to confirm positive bullish confirmation - above 94.16 and
MACD has got to be in +
before entering
can gauge from: 1 H, to break above 94.2 and in positive territory.
2) Once confident with DXY, move on to A/U:
.730 - .728 is the range I am looking at.
Before shorting, DAILY Chart must need 2x BEARISH CONFIRMATION. So first trade will be at least on Friday, after all announcement is done and dusted. (thursday is full of announcements from wee hours in the morning of 04.30 FOMC minute, till 11.30 pm - night …. so Thursday is a no go.) So unlikely, there will be any trade until Friday.
Won't touch AudUsd or other pairs - UsdJpy, UsdCad, EurUsd, or other DXY driven - XauUsd
DXY has been stagnating
Next week is full of holiday worldwide - avoid
The next 2 ie First 2 weeks of Jan, up to Friday 15 Jan are full of econ data releases
3rd week, Thursday 20 Jan morning, is AU Job numbers
In Indices
US> exit @ announcements ie mid/late Jan
can reenter @ dip, will definitely dip
Next, re-enter (if OK) March pre Apr anns
bear in mind taper is accelerated monthly
XJO - hold till div announcements ie March/Apr
re-enter (if ok) June
short if not in - us feb exit @ apr (if OK), us and xjo post Apr/May (exit @ Sept/Oct, if OK)
Goal
maintain the trading discipline and psychology - maximize opportunities smartly safely
avoid traps - first two weeks trades, trade in the opening of a TF esp HK @ 12, Uk and preUK/closing of AU 4-6, buy at dip at around 7.30/8.30,
ensure each trade entered is 100% win
do dd - cal past/future, s/r levels - updated and know know the previous levels' movements
place trades strategically, small, after s before r at body not wick, mind the TF
still hasn't triggered my signal
US and AU indices haven't formed a reliable trend yet
March decision I think is a given per their Jan issued minute
DXY isn't forming a trend either yet
February will be full of anns. and events - anns will start from US rate decision 27/1 till late Feb (GDP), CNY (2 weeks long, and spread across many regions), China Winter Olympic 1 month long,
Looking at March - last critical ann could be Friday 11 March US inflation,
So, perhaps trade will start Monday 14 March.
Primarily waiting for US and AU indices to form a reliable trend, and so is DXY.
Definitely played, to go up?, after rate decision? because Powell tends to be dovish
The fall is post UK closes in both Thursday and Wednesday sessions
Looks too mch like a ploy
plan
Nasdaq, will enter post June 16 FOMC - 12048 June end, ended.
re-enter mid Aug up to September (end September), short.
re-enter mid November to December (end December), short.
Australia earning announcements - August
US earning announcements - mid July to mid August
CSL/MQG
CSL: earnings ann - mid august - 243
MQG: earnings ann - september - 170
till Oct/Nov or hold till Jan/Feb
AUDUSD, XJO, DJIA, SPY
Less movements
AUDUSD plus less sure than NDQ atm
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US • First quarter ends March 31. Earnings season for the first quarter begins in mid-April and ends in mid-May. • Second quarter ends June 30. Second-quarter earnings season begins in mid-July and ends in mid-August. • Third quarter ends September 30. Earnings season for the third quarter begins in mid-October and ends in mid-November. • Fourth quarter ends December 31. Fourth-quarter earnings season begins in mid-January and ends in mid-February.
AU
As most companies have balance sheet dates of 30 June, the main reporting season takes place in August when many companies release their full-year results. Half-year results generally are released in February.
July 6 FOMC Minutes Meeting of June 14-15 Quarter ends June 30; earnings season begins in mid-July and ends in August. July 26-27 FOMC Meeting Quarter ends June 30; earnings season begins in mid-July and ends in August. Aug. 17 FOMC Minutes Quarter ends June 30; earnings season begins in mid-July and ends in August. Sept. 20-21 FOMC Meeting
re-enter circa August - mid August
with caution
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XJO : As most companies have balance sheet dates of 30 June, the main reporting season takes place in August when many companies release their full-year results. Half-year results generally are released in February.
It feels they are addressing the problems - inflation (energy), consumer constraint (food, gas) and company profits (energy, consumer spending), stopping rate hike already rumoured, head on.
It could be a mild recession.
Equity, could be rallying. Esp after rate hike ceases.
And next year is 3rd presidency year.
https://www.facebook.com/reel/634634...?s=yWDuG2&fs=e
Saudi Arabia and Iran made peace, brokered by China.
And they, the 2 oil producing countries, are joining BRIC which agree to sell oil to China in Chinese Yuan instead of USD.
Demise of US and the D soon?
